嘉士伯CEO表示，考虑将印度业务进行公开上市，方案未定。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Danish brewer is experiencing a decline in earnings as it increasingly shifts its focus towards soft drink offerings due to a decrease in consumer demand for beer [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - Earnings have fallen for the company, indicating a challenging financial environment [1] - The reliance on soft drink products is growing as a response to the softening consumer appetite for beer [1] Group 2: Market Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences, with a decline in beer consumption impacting the company's traditional revenue streams [1] - The company is adapting its strategy to focus more on non-alcoholic beverages in light of changing market dynamics [1]

证券研究报告 乳制品：乳饮料&营养品&深加工业务表现亮眼 必选消费 海外看中国：消费恢复呈结构性分化 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 04 日│中国内地 动态点评 我们梳理了海外必选消费品公司中国区业务的表现：部分高端消费出现回暖 迹象，中档及大众价格带的改善尚不显著；外资品牌受损于弱需求环境下"去 品牌化"的行业趋势及对渠道变革相对滞后的反应速度，整体表现承压。部 分外资品牌在中国市场的复苏进度或落后于本土品牌，因此未必能作为行业 复苏的先行指标，多数公司在中国市场仍面临消费偏弱、渠道变革、竞争加 剧及库存压力等挑战，而实现增长的企业主要依靠自身品牌与渠道的 alpha。 烈酒：外部环境承压，中国区业务表现有所分化 海外烈酒龙头主要是高端洋酒品牌，多数公司中国区营收占比不高。受需求 萎缩和消费场景承压的影响，中国白酒市场目前仍处于深度调整期，与此相 对应，25 年至今海外烈酒巨头在中国市场业绩表现普遍承压，且下半年压 力较上半年多有所加剧。其中保乐力加和帝亚吉欧中国区业务均有拖累；人 头马君度销售额企稳（扣除春节效应），内部呈现结构分化。展望 26 年， 帝亚吉欧管理层整体保持谨慎态度，其管理层预计筑底过程 ...

Core Insights - The stock of Carlsberg has remained flat since the previous article was published, despite experiencing a 35% share increase at one point [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Carlsberg is highlighted as a focus for investment opportunities in the European small-cap space, emphasizing a mix of dividend and growth stocks [1] - The investment group European Small Cap Ideas, led by The Investment Doctor, provides exclusive research on appealing Europe-focused investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy includes two model portfolios: the European Small Cap Ideas portfolio and the European REIT Portfolio, aimed at capital gains and dividend income [1] - Weekly updates and educational content are provided to enhance understanding of European investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moutai is implementing significant reforms in product, channel, and pricing strategies, including a temporary halt in product shipments and a shift towards market-oriented pricing to alleviate pressure on distributors and enhance consumer access [1][4][6]. Short-term Policies - Moutai has decided to suspend the shipment of its products this month, delaying the execution of its first-quarter plans until further notice [1][3]. - This decision is aimed at reducing the financial burden on distributors during a period of tight cash flow, preventing panic selling of inventory [2]. Price Dynamics - Following Moutai's announcements, prices for its products have seen a rapid increase, with the price of 53-degree 500ml Flying Moutai rising to 1570 yuan, reflecting a daily increase of 70 yuan [3]. - Retail prices have also surged, with local liquor stores quoting prices between 1754 yuan and 1799 yuan for Moutai products [3]. Long-term Policies - Moutai plans to reduce the production volume of several products, including Moutai Chen Nian 15 Year and Moutai Zodiac Wine, while lowering the sales requirements for non-standard products [5]. - The company is considering a "fully market-oriented" pricing strategy, where products will be sold at market prices, starting with select non-standard Moutai products [6]. Distribution Strategy - Moutai may relax the recruitment criteria for distributors, which would mark a significant change in its distribution strategy after years of stability [9]. - The company is encouraging distributors to explore online sales channels, as evidenced by successful e-commerce initiatives by some distributors [9]. Industry Trends - Other companies in the industry, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, are also announcing mid-term dividend distributions, indicating a trend of financial returns to shareholders [22][23]. - The beer industry is projected to experience growth in production, revenue, and profit by 2025, with an expected production volume of 37 million kiloliters and a revenue increase of 4% [18].

Core Insights - Carlsberg China and JD Supermarket have announced a strategic partnership aimed at enhancing collaboration in brand and supply chain synergy, product exclusivity and innovation, channel co-construction, and comprehensive marketing over the next three years [1][3] Group 1: Partnership Overview - The partnership leverages the complementary resource advantages of both companies, leading to continuous growth in sales [3] - Carlsberg Group is one of the top three global beer companies, established in 1847, with over 180 brands sold worldwide [1] Group 2: Collaboration Areas - **Supply Chain**: The companies will gradually implement a direct supply model to optimize resource alignment and enhance decision-making efficiency [3] - **Product Innovation**: JD Supermarket will customize exclusive products from Carlsberg, including the upcoming launch of 1664 South France Blood Orange Sea Salt White Beer [3] - **Marketing Strategies**: JD Supermarket will utilize its user operations and marketing resources to reach a broader consumer base through various promotional activities [4] Group 3: Channel Development - JD Supermarket will integrate its online platforms, offline stores, and delivery services to provide consumers with a convenient beer purchasing experience [4] - The collaboration aims to meet consumer demands for high-quality, personalized, and convenient drinking experiences, promoting high-quality development in the beer industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - The long-standing equity dispute between Tibet Development (ST Xifa) and Carlsberg over Lhasa Beer is approaching a critical juncture by the end of 2025, with Tibet Development planning to acquire the remaining 50% stake from Carlsberg to achieve full control of Lhasa Beer, enhancing its core business and overall competitiveness [1][4]. Group 1: Background of the Dispute - Lhasa Beer was established in 2004 as a joint venture between Tibet Development and Carlsberg, each holding a 50% stake, with Tibet Development retaining operational control [4]. - The partnership was influenced by the booming Chinese beer market and Carlsberg's strategic shift to invest in western China after 2003 [4]. - Despite initial ambitions, Lhasa Beer has struggled to become an international brand, with Carlsberg expressing intentions to exit as early as 2016 due to unsatisfactory performance and lack of control [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Lhasa Beer experienced declining revenues from 2013 to 2015, with revenues of 447 million, 398 million, and 391 million yuan, and net profits also decreasing during the same period [6]. - In 2022, Lhasa Beer reported a revenue of 337 million yuan, a 21.64% increase year-on-year, and in 2024, revenue reached 421 million yuan, growing by 25.11% [8][9]. - The company has shifted towards high-end products, with the "3650" small bottle beer achieving a revenue increase of 296.50% in 2024 [9]. Group 3: Recent Developments and Future Prospects - The negotiations between Tibet Development and Carlsberg have shifted from confrontation to collaboration, with Tibet Development's board approving the terms for the 50% stake acquisition on July 21, 2025 [11]. - The ongoing restructuring phase for Tibet Development poses risks, including potential bankruptcy, which could affect the planned equity transfer [12]. - The successful acquisition of Lhasa Beer would be crucial for Tibet Development, as it represents a significant portion of its revenue and could enhance market confidence [11].

Core Viewpoint - Carlsberg is considering selling part of its Asian business, with Sapporo Brewery as a potential buyer, but the deal may not proceed if key terms are not agreed upon [1] Group 1: Potential Transaction - Sapporo Brewery has established a business partnership with Carlsberg in 2023, focusing on production and sales in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia [1] - If the transaction occurs, Sapporo could leverage Carlsberg's distribution network in Asia, aligning with its strategy to strengthen its core beer business [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Carlsberg is facing growth pressure in the Chinese market, with a slight decline of 2% expected in the overall beer market [1] - In Q3, Chongqing Brewery reported revenue of 4.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%, but net profit decreased by 12.71% to 376 million yuan [1] - For the first three quarters of 2023, Chongqing Brewery's revenue was 13.06 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.03%, and net profit was 1.24 billion yuan, down 6.83% [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Carlsberg is actively expanding non-current drinking channels, enhancing its premium strategy, and increasing investment in innovative products [3] - Chongqing Brewery has introduced several new products, including "Ushu Craft Red Robe Beer" and "Dali Craft," to boost market share in canned products [3] - Carlsberg's CEO noted an 8% growth in its premium market segment, largely driven by growth in China [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Despite a 1.18% increase in revenue from high-end products, mainstream and economy products saw declines of 1.66% and 1.21%, respectively, leading to only a slight overall increase in main business revenue [4] - Chongqing Brewery is accelerating its entry into non-beer categories to meet diverse consumer demands, particularly in dining [4] - Carlsberg is strengthening its brand association with football, having established partnerships with both European and local Chinese football events [4] - Looking ahead to Q4, Carlsberg anticipates a slight decline in the overall Chinese beer market but expects positive sales growth in its own operations [4]

Core Insights - The company reported strong volume and revenue growth driven by the Britvic acquisition, with successful integration and synergy realization [2] - Despite a challenging consumer environment, solid underlying volume and revenue growth was achieved in Western Europe, along with sequential improvement in Asia [2] - The company has taken decisive actions to adjust its cost base to protect earnings growth and ensure continued investments in the business [2] - Full-year earnings guidance has been maintained [2] Group Headlines - The Britvic acquisition and consolidation of Gorkha Brewery contributed significantly to the group's performance [3]

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