What happened, does it have something to do with the new CEO, and whatChipotle (NYSE: CMG ), generally viewed as the top fast-casual chain, is coming off its worst quarter in years, as same-store sales turned negative for the first time since 2016.I aim to invest in companies with perfect qualitative attributes, buy them at an attractive price based on fundamentals, and hold them forever. I hope to publish articles covering such companies approximately 3 times per week, with extensive quarterly follow-ups a ...

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill's shares have increased by approximately 2.5% over the past month, underperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend leading up to the next earnings report [1]. Group 1: Earnings Report and Estimates - Recent estimates for Chipotle have trended downward, with the consensus estimate decreasing by 8.73% over the past month [2]. - The stock has received a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of below-average returns in the coming months [4]. Group 2: VGM Scores - Chipotle has a strong Growth Score of A, but it is significantly lagging in Momentum Score with an F, and also received an F for Value Score, placing it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy [3]. - The overall aggregate VGM Score for Chipotle is C, which is relevant for investors not focused on a single strategy [3].

Core Theme - The article discusses the growth potential of quick-service restaurants (QSR) in the U.S., highlighting successful expansion stories and identifying four companies with significant growth opportunities [1][2]. Company Summaries Chipotle - Chipotle Mexican Grill operates 3,781 company-owned restaurants and plans to open 315 to 345 new locations in 2025, representing a 9% unit growth [4][5]. - The long-term goal is to operate up to 7,000 locations in North America, which could be achieved in the next 12 to 13 years [5]. - Chipotle is also expanding internationally, with plans to enter Mexico next year and ongoing expansion in the Middle East [6]. Cava - Cava has reported four consecutive quarters of positive double-digit same-store sales and plans to open 64 to 68 new locations this fiscal year, indicating high-teens unit growth [8][9]. - The company aims to reach at least 1,000 restaurants by 2032, nearly tripling its current locations [9]. - Cava employs a "coastal smile" expansion strategy, focusing on areas with a high interest in Mediterranean cuisine, and is now expanding into the Midwest [10][11]. Dutch Bros - Dutch Bros operates 1,012 shops and plans to open at least 160 new locations this year, representing about 16% unit growth [12][13]. - The company believes it can reach 2,029 locations by the end of 2029, with a total market opportunity for 7,000 shops [13]. - Dutch Bros has a significant opportunity to increase sales by adding more food items to its menu, as currently only 2% of its sales come from food [14]. Shake Shack - Shake Shack operates 579 locations and plans to open 45 to 50 new company-owned locations this year, indicating mid-teens unit growth [16][17]. - The company aims to open the most new locations in its history this year while reducing construction costs by 10% [18]. - Shake Shack believes it can support at least 1,500 locations in the U.S. over the long term, quadrupling its current U.S. locations [19].

Core Viewpoint - Computer Modelling Group Ltd. reported financial results for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, highlighting challenges in organic growth due to macroeconomic factors and a low oil price environment, while also noting revenue growth supported by acquisitions [4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for Q4 2025 increased by 4% to $33.7 million, with a 13% organic decline and a 17% growth from acquisitions [8][9]. - Recurring revenue rose by 16% to $24.2 million, with a 7% organic decline and a 23% growth from acquisitions [8][9]. - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 2% to $10.5 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31%, down from 32% in the previous year [8][9]. - Earnings per share decreased by 33% to $0.06, while free cash flow decreased by 26% to $7.0 million [8][9]. Year-End Financial Highlights - Total revenue for the fiscal year increased by 19% to $129.4 million, with a 1% organic decline and a 20% growth from acquisitions [8][9]. - Recurring revenue for the year increased by 13% to $86.8 million, with a 1% organic growth and a 12% growth from acquisitions [8][9]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the year increased by 2% to $44.0 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34%, down from 40% in the previous year [8][9]. - Free cash flow for the year decreased by 22% to $27.6 million [8][9]. Dividend Announcement - The Board of Directors approved a cash dividend of $0.05 per common share for Q4 2025, to be paid on June 13, 2025 [10]. Future Outlook - For fiscal 2026, the company anticipates a reduction of $6 - $7 million in professional services revenue compared to fiscal 2025, which may challenge total revenue growth [5]. - The company aims to shift its revenue mix towards a higher percentage of software revenue, with the reduction in professional services being a natural part of this shift [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill has underperformed in 2023, with a 15% decline in stock value compared to a 1% gain in the S&P 500, facing challenges in comparable sales and operating margins [1][12] Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 6% to $2.88 billion in the first quarter, while adjusted EPS rose by 7% to $0.29 [1] - Comparable-restaurant sales fell by 0.4%, driven by a 2.3% decrease in transactions, despite a 1.9% increase in average check size [1] - Operating margins compressed by 130 basis points to 26.2%, affected by rising food and labor costs and larger portion sizes [1] - Chipotle's revenue has grown at an average rate of 14.4% over the last three years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 6.2% growth [4] - The company expects low single-digit comparable sales growth for the full year 2025, with traffic anticipated to improve in the second half [1] Profitability Metrics - Chipotle's operating income over the last four quarters was $2.0 billion, resulting in a moderate operating margin of 17.5% [5] - The operating cash flow (OCF) was $2.1 billion, reflecting an OCF margin of 18.6% [5] - Net income for the preceding four quarters was $1.5 billion, indicating a net income margin of 13.6% [5] Valuation Comparison - Chipotle's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 6.1, compared to 2.8 for the S&P 500, indicating a higher valuation [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 44.7 versus the benchmark's 24.5, suggesting that the stock is expensive [6] Financial Stability - Chipotle's debt was $4.5 billion, with a market capitalization of $70 billion, resulting in a low debt-to-equity ratio of 6.6% [8] - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $1.4 billion, leading to a cash-to-assets ratio of 15.5% [8] Resilience During Downturns - CMG stock has shown slightly better performance than the S&P 500 during recent downturns, indicating some resilience [9] - Historical data shows significant stock declines during past crises, but recovery has been achieved in each case [10][11] Overall Assessment - Chipotle's performance metrics indicate strong growth and financial stability, but high valuation levels suggest limited upside potential in the near term [12][13]

Core Points - Chipotle Mexican Grill is launching a new program called "Summer of Extras," which will run from June 1 to August 31, 2025, offering over $1 million in free burritos to Chipotle Rewards members in the U.S. [1] - The program includes weekly giveaways of 10,000 free burritos to selected Rewards members, along with opportunities to earn extra points and exclusive badges for completing purchase milestones [2][4][10]. Group 1: Program Details - "Summer of Extras" allows Chipotle Rewards members to earn extra benefits, points, and free food by participating in a gamified experience [4][7]. - Members can complete up to four milestones each month to earn bonus points and sweepstakes entries for prizes, including free burritos for a year and a limited-edition gift card [4][8]. - Each month, milestones reset, providing ongoing opportunities for members to earn rewards throughout the summer [5]. Group 2: Participation and Rewards - To participate, members must opt into the "Summer of Extras" program and can earn rewards by making qualifying purchases [6][11]. - The program features a leaderboard that tracks members' performance against others in their state, enhancing engagement through competition [6]. - New Chipotle Rewards members will receive a free guacamole offer after their first order, incentivizing sign-ups [11]. Group 3: Promotional Strategy - The program is designed to increase customer engagement and frequency of visits during the summer, with a focus on rewarding loyal customers [4][7]. - Chipotle aims to leverage social media by encouraging members to document their experiences and maintain purchase streaks [7]. - The initiative reflects Chipotle's commitment to enhancing customer experience and promoting brand loyalty through innovative marketing strategies [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reliability of brokerage recommendations, particularly focusing on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), and suggests that while the average brokerage recommendation indicates a positive outlook, it may not be a reliable indicator for investment decisions [1][5]. Brokerage Recommendations - Chipotle has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.58, which is between Strong Buy and Buy, based on recommendations from 32 brokerage firms [2]. - Of the 32 recommendations, 21 are Strong Buy (65.6%) and 3 are Buy (9.4%) [2]. Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Solely relying on brokerage recommendations for investment decisions may not be advisable, as studies indicate they often fail to guide investors effectively towards stocks with high price appreciation potential [5]. - Brokerage firms tend to exhibit a positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, with a ratio of five Strong Buy recommendations for every Strong Sell [6][10]. Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank, which is based on earnings estimate revisions, is presented as a more reliable indicator of a stock's near-term price performance compared to the ABR [8][11]. - The Zacks Rank is a quantitative model that maintains a balance among its five ranks, while the ABR is based solely on brokerage recommendations and may not be up-to-date [9][12]. Current Earnings Estimates for Chipotle - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle's earnings has declined by 4.7% over the past month to $1.21, indicating growing pessimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [13]. - This decline in earnings estimates has resulted in a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) for Chipotle, suggesting caution despite the positive ABR [14].

Company Overview - Chipotle Mexican Grill operates fast-food restaurants and has experienced a long period of growth, but its first-quarter 2025 performance was disappointing [2] - Wingstop is also a fast-food chain that has shown popularity and growth over the years, but its first-quarter 2025 results were not as strong as previous periods [5] Financial Performance - Chipotle's sales increased by 6.4%, but same-store sales declined by 0.4%, indicating that growth was driven by new locations rather than returning customers [4] - Wingstop's revenue grew by 15.7%, with same-store sales up by 0.5% in the U.S., although this was a decrease from the previous quarter's 10.1% growth [6] Valuation and Dividends - Both Chipotle and Wingstop have price-to-earnings ratios around 45, with Wingstop's recent price pullback reducing its previously higher P/E ratio compared to Chipotle [8] - Chipotle does not pay a dividend, while Wingstop offers a low dividend yield of approximately 0.4% [9] Business Model Comparison - Chipotle operates nearly all of its restaurants, while about 98% of Wingstop's locations are operated by franchisees, affecting operational control [10] - Chipotle's model allows for more direct control over customer experience and adaptability in a challenging market, which may appeal to conservative investors [12] Market Position and Strategy - Both companies rely on the appeal of their food offerings, but Chipotle's ability to adjust its operations may provide a competitive edge in a weak sales environment [13]

Group 1 - Alsea reported a revenue increase of approximately 10% for the quarter, indicating positive sales growth [1] - However, the company's earnings per share (EPS) experienced a significant decline of 44%, suggesting underlying challenges despite revenue growth [1] Group 2 - The analysis is conducted by a specialized equity analyst with a focus on restaurant stocks, indicating a deep understanding of the sector [1] - The analyst employs advanced analytical models and valuation techniques to provide insights and strategies for investors in the restaurant industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) shares increased by 9.6% after the release of its first-quarter 2025 results, indicating investor confidence in the company's long-term strategy despite facing near-term challenges [1] Financial Performance - The first quarter was affected by macroeconomic challenges such as adverse weather and cautious consumer spending, yet Chipotle showed resilience and operational momentum [2] - Comparable restaurant sales fell by 0.4% compared to a 5.4% growth in the previous quarter, with lower transactions down by 2.3%, partially offset by a 1.9% rise in average checks [16] - Food, beverage, and packaging costs as a percentage of revenues increased to 29.2% from 28.8% year-over-year due to inflation in key commodities [17] - Earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised down from $1.28 to $1.22, with expected year-over-year growth of 8.9% [19] Growth Drivers - The successful launch of Chipotle Honey Chicken in March was a highlight, contributing to increased guest traffic and transactions [3][8] - The company opened 57 restaurants in the first quarter, including two internationally licensed locations, with strong year-two cash-on-cash returns averaging around 60% [12] - Chipotle plans to open 315-345 locations in 2025, with approximately 80% featuring a Chipotlane, aiming for over 7,000 restaurants in North America in the long term [15] Operational Enhancements - Chipotle is investing in digital innovation and kitchen efficiency, including new equipment to streamline food preparation and enhance consistency [9][10] - Proprietary equipment like Autocado and an augmented digital makeline are being tested to improve kitchen efficiency and food preparation accuracy [11] Market Position and Valuation - Chipotle's stock is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 39.89, higher than the industry average of 25.75 and the S&P 500's ratio of 21.65, indicating a premium valuation [20] - The stock closed at $51.64, which is 25.4% below its 52-week high of $69.26, and has seen a decline of 10.7% over the past three months [4] Conclusion - The recent stock rebound reflects investor optimism in Chipotle's long-term prospects, driven by innovation, menu success, operational upgrades, and unit expansion [23] - However, near-term challenges such as soft comparable sales and inflationary pressures may impact results, and the stock's high valuation could limit short-term upside potential [24]