Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) will report quarterly earnings of $0.82 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.5%, with revenues expected to reach $2.79 billion, a 5.8% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted upward by 0.4%, indicating a reassessment of projections by covering analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor actions regarding the stock, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price performance [3]. Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts project the 'Adjusted Operating Ratio' to be 60.6%, down from 61.8% in the same quarter last year [5]. - 'Carloads - Intermodal' are expected to reach 443.31 thousand, up from 403.50 thousand year-over-year [5]. - 'Carloads - Automotive' are estimated at 67.08 thousand, slightly up from 66.10 thousand year-over-year [5]. - 'Carloads - Grain' should come in at 136.15 thousand, compared to 128.90 thousand last year [6]. - 'Carloads - Metals, Minerals and Consumer Products' are expected to be 129.47 thousand, down from 134.60 thousand in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Carloads - Potash' are forecasted at 51.05 thousand, up from 49.40 thousand year-over-year [7]. - 'Carloads - Fertilizers and Sulphur' are expected to be 17.18 thousand, slightly up from 17.00 thousand last year [7]. - 'Carloads - Forest Products' are projected at 33.87 thousand, down from 34.60 thousand year-over-year [8]. - 'Carloads - Energy, Chemicals and Plastics' are estimated at 141.97 thousand, down from 142.40 thousand last year [8]. - 'Carloads - Total' are expected to reach 1.13 million, up from 1.09 million year-over-year [9]. - 'Carloads - Coal' are forecasted at 114.56 thousand, up from 108.90 thousand last year [9]. - The consensus estimate for 'Revenue ton miles (RTMs) - Total' stands at 54.54 billion, compared to 52.13 billion year-over-year [9]. Stock Performance - Shares of Canadian Pacific Kansas City have shown a return of -3.6% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.6% change, indicating a potential underperformance relative to the market [11].

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Core Viewpoint - Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) will release its second-quarter 2025 financial and operating results on July 30, 2025, after market close [1] Group 1: Financial Results Announcement - CPKC will discuss its financial results in a conference call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET on July 30, 2025 [1] - The conference call can be accessed via specific phone numbers for Canada, the U.S., and international callers [2] Group 2: Webcast and Replay Information - Investors are encouraged to access the webcast and presentation materials on CPKC's website [3] - A replay of the conference call will be available until August 6, 2025, through designated phone numbers [3] Group 3: Company Overview - CPKC is the first and only single-line transnational railway connecting Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, with extensive access to major ports [4] - The company operates approximately 20,000 route miles and employs 20,000 railroaders, providing significant rail service and network reach across North America [4] - CPKC is focused on growth alongside its customers, offering various freight transportation services, logistics solutions, and supply chain expertise [4]

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Global Logistics - **Trade Policy Instability**: The current trade policy landscape is characterized by significant instability, with potential conflicts in the Middle East affecting logistics and transshipment hubs. Multinationals and logistics partners are forced to adapt continuously [1][4] - **Q1 Volume Performance**: Strong Q1 volumes were reported, with ocean volumes increasing by 6% year-over-year (YoY) in April. However, there are concerns about potential risks to trade volumes in the second half of the year [1][3] - **Airfreight Revenue Growth**: The international airfreight industry is experiencing low single-digit revenue growth, with recent data indicating a slight decline in yields due to lower fuel surcharges [1][5] Key Metrics and Trends - **Global Trade Volumes**: Global trade volumes rose by 5.9% YoY in March, primarily driven by a 30% increase in US imports, likely due to demand pull forward ahead of tariff threats [2] - **Spot Rates**: Spot rates for ocean freight have spiked significantly, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) up by 41% and the World Container Index (WCI) up by 59% since mid-May [3] - **PMI Indicators**: Recent Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data shows a decline in China (-2.1 points to 48.3), while the US stabilized and Europe improved [2] Company-Specific Insights DSV - **Rating**: Outperform, Target Price (TP) DKK 1,650.00 - **Acquisition of DB Schenker**: DSV is expected to become the largest freight forwarder post-acquisition, with anticipated EPS of DKK 100+ by 2028 [9] DHL - **Rating**: Outperform, TP €43.00 - **Earnings Exposure**: Approximately 80% of EBIT is tied to e-commerce and world trade, with a significant portion coming from the Express division [10] Kuehne+Nagel - **Rating**: Market-Perform, TP CHF 190.00 - **Performance Issues**: The company has underperformed peers in volume growth, attributed to deep headcount reductions impacting commercial capabilities [11][12] A.P. Moller - Maersk - **Rating**: Underperform, TP DKK 9,350.00 - **Challenges in Container Shipping**: Spot rates are down approximately 40% year-to-date, with expectations of declining volumes and a challenging supply-demand balance [13] UPS - **Rating**: Outperform, TP $133.00 - **Cost Savings Initiatives**: UPS is targeting $3.5 billion in cost savings through restructuring, which includes significant workforce reductions [24] FedEx - **Rating**: Market-Perform, TP $249.00 - **Network Integration Risks**: The company faces challenges due to policy uncertainty and complex network integration, which may impact earnings [25] Investment Implications - **European Logistics**: DSV and DHL are rated as Outperform, while Kuehne+Nagel and Maersk are rated as Market-Perform and Underperform, respectively [8] - **North American Logistics**: UPS is rated as Outperform, while FedEx is rated as Market-Perform [8] Additional Considerations - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East may complicate logistics and trade routes, particularly affecting the Strait of Hormuz and key ports like Jebel Ali [4] - **Market Sentiment**: There is a cautious outlook on companies like Kuehne+Nagel and CSX due to execution challenges and macroeconomic uncertainties [12][18] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and metrics from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the global logistics industry and specific company performances.

Company Overview - Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPKC) is issuing C$500 million of 4.00% Notes due 2032, C$600 million of 4.40% Notes due 2036, and C$300 million of 4.80% Notes due 2055, guaranteed by CPKC [1][2] - The transaction is expected to close on June 13, 2025, subject to customary closing conditions [2] - The net proceeds from the Offering will be used to refinance CPRC's outstanding indebtedness and for general corporate purposes [2] Offering Details - The Offering is made under CPRC's base shelf prospectus dated March 6, 2025, supplemented by the prospectus supplement dated June 11, 2025 [3] - The joint lead agents and joint active book-runners for the Offering include Scotia Capital Inc., BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., CIBC World Markets Inc., and RBC Capital Markets [2] Regulatory Information - The securities issued under the Offering have not been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 and may not be offered or sold in the United States without registration or an applicable exemption [4] - Access to the Prospectus is provided in accordance with securities legislation and is available on SEDAR+ [5] Company Background - CPKC is the first and only single-line transnational railway linking Canada, the United States, and Mexico, with access to major ports from Vancouver to Atlantic Canada and the Gulf Coast [11][12] - The company operates approximately 20,000 route miles and employs 20,000 railroaders, providing unparalleled rail service and network reach across North America [12]

Core Insights - Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) demonstrates strong operational efficiencies and a customer-centric approach, enhancing its market position despite challenges from rising operating expenses and liquidity issues [1][7]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, CP reported revenues of $3.8 billion, an 8% increase driven by 4% volume growth and a 150-basis-point improvement in the operating ratio to 62.5, indicating effective scale and efficiency optimization [2][7]. - Earnings per share rose by 14% to $1.06, showcasing the strength of CP's integrated business model post-merger [2]. - The company experienced a 4.5% increase in operating expenses, primarily due to a 5% rise in fuel costs and a 24.2% increase in material expenses [8]. Shareholder Initiatives - CP increased its dividend by 20%, from $0.19 to $0.228 per share, reflecting confidence in its financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns [4][7]. - In Q1 2025, CP paid out a total dividend of $177 million, with a quarterly dividend of 19 cents per share [4]. Safety and Operational Efficiency - CP achieved a reduction in personal injury frequency to 0.98 in Q1 2025, down from 1.14 in the same period of 2024, highlighting its commitment to safety [3]. Market Performance - Over the past year, CP's shares have increased by 12.8%, contrasting with a 2.7% decline in the industry [5].

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