Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company generated GAAP EPS of $0.24 per share and FFO per share of $0.48, with adjusted EPS increasing by 20% from $0.20 in Q3 2024 [21][22] - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $88.8 million, a 6.6% increase from $83.3 million in the prior year quarter [22][23] - The operating margin for safety and community facilities was 22.7%, down from 24.9% in the prior year quarter, but adjusted for startup losses, it was 24% [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from federal partners, primarily ICE and the U.S. Marshals Service, increased by 28% year-over-year, with ICE revenue up by $76.2 million or 54.6% [13] - Revenue from state partners increased by 3.6%, driven by new contracts with Montana and population increases in Georgia [13][14] - Total occupancy for safety and community segments was 76.7%, up 1.5 percentage points year-over-year [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nationwide ICE detention populations reached historical highs of around 60,000, with a 37% increase in ICE populations in company facilities from the end of 2024 to Q3 2025 [8][9] - U.S. Marshals populations slightly declined to just over 6,300, but are expected to increase in 2026 due to anticipated enforcement activities [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on activating idle facilities, with four new contracts expected to generate approximately $320 million in annual revenue once stabilized occupancy is reached [5][19] - The company plans to accelerate share repurchases, indicating a belief that current stock valuation does not reflect the cash flows of the business [11][33] - The company anticipates reaching a run rate EBITDA of at least $450 million once new facilities reach stabilized occupancy in 2026 [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about future demand, citing ongoing conversations with state partners and the potential for additional contract awards [9][60] - The company noted that the pace of ICE admissions has remained stable, with expectations for increased enforcement activity [41] - Management acknowledged challenges related to startup activities for new contracts but emphasized the importance of these contracts for future growth [43][30] Other Important Information - The company has five idle facilities containing approximately 7,000 beds, with ongoing discussions about potential future activations [10][60] - The company plans to spend $60-$65 million on maintenance capital expenditures in 2025, unchanged from prior guidance [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on ICE detention pace and government shutdown impact - Management indicated that the pace of admissions and activity in facilities has remained stable, with some increase in transportation demands [39][40] Question: Guidance and updated occupancy projections - Updated guidance reflects startup activities and new contracts, resulting in some operating losses but viewed positively as it includes new contracts [43][44] Question: Share repurchase strategy and leverage goals - Management confirmed plans to be more aggressive with share repurchases, considering current stock price and expected cash flow growth [46][47] Question: Future activations and state demand - Management confirmed ongoing discussions with state partners for potential bed utilization beyond ICE contracts [60][61] Question: Staffing issues and wage trends - Management reported strong hiring experiences and favorable wage trends, with no significant concerns regarding staffing [56]

CoreCivic Financial Performance - CoreCivic reported third-quarter revenue growth of 18.1% year-over-year, reaching $580.4 million, which exceeded Wall Street expectations [2] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.24, falling short of analysts' estimates of $0.26, indicating profitability weakness despite strong revenue growth [2] - The company lowered its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a midpoint of $1.03, representing a 6.8% decrease from previous projections, and also reduced full-year EBITDA guidance [2] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, CoreCivic's shares fell 12.2% in the morning session, reflecting significant market reaction to the news [1][4] - The stock has shown volatility, with 11 moves greater than 5% over the past year, indicating that this news has notably impacted market perception [4] Year-to-Date Performance - CoreCivic's stock is down 24.4% since the beginning of the year, currently trading at $16.42 per share, which is 31.4% below its 52-week high of $23.94 from November 2024 [6] - An investment of $1,000 in CoreCivic shares five years ago would now be worth $2,737, highlighting long-term growth despite recent volatility [6]

Core Insights - CoreCivic, Inc. reported a total revenue increase of 18.1% year-over-year, reaching $580.4 million in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the activation of idle facilities [7][4] - The company experienced a net income of $26.3 million, a 24.7% increase from the previous year, with diluted earnings per share rising to $0.24, up 26.3% [5][7] - CoreCivic's adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $88.8 million, reflecting a 6.6% increase compared to the same quarter in 2024 [7][11] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $580.4 million, up from $491.6 million in Q3 2024 [7] - Net income increased to $26.3 million, compared to $21.1 million in the prior year [5] - Diluted earnings per share rose to $0.24 from $0.19 year-over-year [5] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share also increased to $0.24, up from $0.20 [5] - Normalized funds from operations (FFO) per diluted share was $0.48, an 11.6% increase from the previous year [12] Operational Highlights - The average daily residential population served was 55,236 in Q3 2025, compared to 50,757 in Q3 2024, indicating a 8.9% increase [6][8] - Revenue from ICE, the largest government partner, surged by 54.6% to $215.9 million, driven by the reactivation of facilities and new contracts [10] - The company repurchased 1.9 million shares at a cost of $40 million during the third quarter, with a total of 5.9 million shares repurchased in 2025 [14][7] Business Development - CoreCivic activated five idle facilities in 2025, with four contracts awarded in Q3 expected to generate approximately $320 million in annual revenue once stabilized [4][10] - The acquisition of the Farmville Detention Center for $71.4 million is anticipated to add $40 million in annual revenue [17] - New contracts at the West Tennessee Detention Facility and California City Immigration Processing Center are expected to generate $30 million and $130 million in annual revenue, respectively, once fully activated [18][19] Financial Guidance - The company revised its full-year 2025 financial guidance, projecting net income between $107 million and $113 million, down from previous estimates [22] - Adjusted net income is now expected to be between $108 million and $114 million, reflecting updated occupancy projections and start-up expenses related to new contracts [22][24]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $580.4 million, an increase of 18.1% compared to the prior year quarter[5] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $26.3 million, up 24.7% from the prior year quarter[5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $88.8 million, up 6.6% from $83.3 million in Q3 2024[10] - Revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $580,437 thousand, compared to $491,558 thousand for the same period in 2024, representing an increase of 18.1%[32] - Net income for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $26,309 thousand, up from $21,096 thousand in the same period of 2024, reflecting a growth of 24.0%[32] - Adjusted net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $90,933 thousand, compared to $72,046 thousand for the same period in 2024, indicating a year-over-year increase of 26.0%[33] - Basic earnings per share for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $0.25, compared to $0.19 for the same period in 2024, marking a 31.6% increase[32] - Funds From Operations (FFO) for Q3 2025 reached $51,519,000, up 9.1% from $47,122,000 in Q3 2024[35] - Normalized Funds From Operations (Normalized FFO) for Q3 2025 was $52,082,000, a 9.3% increase from $47,602,000 in Q3 2024[35] - EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $89,030,000, representing a 9.9% increase from $81,367,000 in Q3 2024[36] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $88,832,000, up 6.1% from $83,294,000 in Q3 2024[36] Revenue Sources - Revenue from ICE, the largest government partner, was $215.9 million, reflecting a 54.6% increase from $139.7 million in Q3 2024[9] - New contracts at four facilities are expected to generate approximately $320 million of annual revenue once stabilized occupancy is achieved[4] - The acquisition of the Farmville Detention Center is expected to generate approximately $40.0 million in annual incremental revenue[15] Guidance and Projections - Revised financial guidance for full year 2025 includes net income of $107.0 million to $113.0 million, down from prior guidance of $116.4 million to $124.4 million[20] - The guidance for Funds From Operations for the year ending December 31, 2025 is projected between $207,326,000 and $214,326,000[37] - The guidance for Normalized Funds From Operations for the year ending December 31, 2025 is projected between $209,000,000 and $216,000,000[37] - The projected diluted EPS for 2025 is between $0.99 and $1.05[37] - The projected Adjusted Diluted EPS for 2025 is between $1.00 and $1.06[37] Operational Metrics - Average daily residential population increased to 55,236 in Q3 2025, a rise of 8.9% from 50,757 in Q3 2024[7] - The average occupancy rate in Q3 2025 was 76.7%, compared to 75.2% in Q3 2024[7] Capital Expenditures - The company expects to invest between $29.0 million and $31.0 million in maintenance capital expenditures on real estate assets, and between $31.0 million and $34.0 million for other assets and information technology in 2025[21] - Capital expenditures associated with activating previously idled facilities are projected to be approximately $97.5 million to $99.5 million, reflecting an increase due to requests from ICE related to new contract awards[21] Balance Sheet - Total assets as of September 30, 2025, amounted to $3,110,131 thousand, an increase from $2,931,891 thousand as of December 31, 2024[31] - The company reported total liabilities of $1,639,659 thousand as of September 30, 2025, compared to $1,438,540 thousand as of December 31, 2024[31] Company Background and Risks - The company has been a partner for government solutions for over 40 years, focusing on corrections and detention management, and residential reentry facilities[25] - Forward-looking statements indicate potential risks including changes in government policy and economic conditions that could impact future performance[26]

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or a ...

I am bullish on CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE: CXW ) because it has transitioned from a distressed high-yield credit into a crossover quality ticker—driven by strong ICE demands and contract wins, strong free cash flow generation, and backed by strong balance sheet strength (subAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opin ...

Core Points - CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE:CXW) is recognized as a promising small-cap stock with significant upside potential [1] - The company is set to announce its fiscal Q3 2025 results on November 5, 2023, after market close [1] - Analyst Joe Gomes from Noble Financial maintains a bullish outlook on CoreCivic, assigning a price target of $28 [2] Contract and Revenue Details - CoreCivic has secured a new contract under an Intergovernmental Services Agreement (IGSA) with the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the Oklahoma Department of Corrections (OKDOC) [3] - The contract allows the company to resume operations at the 2,160-bed Diamondback Correctional Facility, which has been inactive since 2010, with a commencement date of September 30, 2023, for a term of five years [4] - The agreement includes a "fixed monthly payment plus an incremental per diem payment based on detainee populations," with expected total annual revenue of around $100 million once the facility is fully operational [5] - Detainee intake is anticipated to begin in fiscal Q1 2026, with full operational capacity expected by fiscal Q2 2026 [5] Company Overview - CoreCivic, Inc. operates as a government solutions company focused on the management and development of prisons and correctional facilities, with operations divided into Safety, Community, and Properties segments [6]

Core观点 - Recent market sell-off has created a significant investment opportunity in CoreCivic (NYSE: CXW), with the stock price dropping from $22.5 to $17.5, a decline of 22%, resulting in a loss of over $500 million in market capitalization [1] 分组1 - The stock price of CoreCivic has decreased significantly, presenting a potential buying opportunity for value investors [1] - The decline in stock price reflects broader market trends, which may not necessarily indicate the company's underlying performance [1] - The focus on value investing emphasizes the importance of analyzing business operations and financials to estimate fair value rather than relying solely on traditional metrics like WACC [1]

CoreCivic (NYSE:CXW) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - CoreCivic is a diversified government solutions company focused on corrections and detention management, addressing recidivism, and providing government real estate solutions [1][2] - The company was established in 1983 and has approximately $2.9 billion in total assets, with $2.3 billion in real estate [2] Financial Performance - Projected revenue for 2024 is around $2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of approximately $331 million [2] - Revenue breakdown: 51% from federal contracts (30% from ICE), 20% from U.S. Marshals Service, 41% from state customers, and 8% from local and other customers [2] - Market capitalization is about $2 billion [3] Operational Segments - CoreCivic operates in three segments: 1. **Safety Segment**: 44 facilities with about 67,000 beds, contributing 92% of net operating income (NOI) [3][4] 2. **Community Segment**: 21 residential reentry facilities (halfway houses) with about 4,000 beds, making up 5% of NOI [4] 3. **Property Segment**: Five facilities leased to state agencies with about 7,800 beds, contributing 3% of NOI [4] Industry Insights - Private prisons account for less than 8% of the U.S. prison population, with CoreCivic being the largest owner of correctional and detention facilities [4] - CoreCivic manages 27% of total ICE populations and 13% of U.S. Marshals populations [5] Growth Opportunities - The company has about 9,000 beds available for reactivation to meet ICE's needs, with potential revenue generation based on a conservative estimate of $28.02 per bed [7][8] - The focus on interior enforcement by ICE is expected to create additional demand for CoreCivic's facilities [10] Recent Developments - CoreCivic activated five previously idle facilities, adding approximately 8,800 beds, which is expected to generate $500 million in revenue [14] - The company has a 97% contract retention rate over the past five years [14] Financial Strategy - The company has repaid $1.3 billion of debt since June 2020, reducing leverage from around four times to 2.3 times [15] - CoreCivic has $347 million in liquidity and plans to prioritize share repurchases over acquisitions due to limited opportunities [15][16] Acquisition Insights - The recent acquisition of the Farmville facility is expected to generate about $40 million in annual revenue and was completed seamlessly [27][29] - The company is targeting a return on investment of 13% to 15% for acquisitions, with the Farmville acquisition exceeding this target [28] Management Transition - A CEO succession plan is in place, with Patrick Swindle set to become CEO on January 1, 2026, following the current CEO's transition [17][18] Conclusion - CoreCivic is positioned for growth with strong financials, a solid operational strategy, and a focus on meeting government demand for detention services, while also navigating challenges such as staffing and government funding [19][25]

Core Points - CoreCivic, Inc. will release its 2025 third quarter financial results after market close on November 5, 2025 [1] - A live conference call will take place on November 6, 2025, at 1:30 p.m. central time [1] - Participants can register in advance to join the call via telephone [2] - An audio-only webcast of the conference call will be accessible on CoreCivic's website, with a replay available for seven days [3] Company Overview - CoreCivic is a diversified government-solutions company focused on addressing government challenges in a flexible and cost-effective manner [4] - The company provides a range of solutions including corrections and detention management, alternatives to incarceration, and government real estate solutions [4] - CoreCivic is the largest owner and one of the largest operators of partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States [4] - The company has over 40 years of experience as a reliable partner for government entities [4]