Company Overview - Graham (GHM) is expected to report earnings for the quarter ended December 2025, with a consensus estimate of $0.17 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5.6% [3] - Revenues are anticipated to be $51.37 million, which represents a 9.2% increase from the previous year [3] Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is scheduled for release on February 6, and the stock price may rise if actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 2.95% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4] Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model indicates that Graham has an Earnings ESP of -88.46%, suggesting analysts have become more pessimistic about the company's earnings prospects [12] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [12] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Graham was expected to post earnings of $0.33 per share but delivered $0.31, resulting in a surprise of -6.06% [13] - Over the past four quarters, Graham has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14] Industry Comparison - RBC Bearings (RBC), a peer in the Zacks Manufacturing - General Industrial industry, is expected to report earnings of $2.85 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 21.8% [18] - RBC's revenues are projected to be $461.12 million, up 16.9% from the previous year, with a consensus EPS estimate revised 0.9% higher in the last 30 days [19]

Core Insights - Piper Sandler's "Macro Select" stock-picking model significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, achieving a return of approximately 22% compared to the S&P 500's 16% gain [1] - The updated Macro Select list for 2026 focuses on stocks with strong earnings surprises, earnings revisions, attractive earnings yield, and high return on equity (ROE) [3] Stock Performance - AT&T Inc. (Ticker: T) in the Communication Services sector had a 1-year return of 10% [5] - Graham Holdings (Ticker: GHC) in the Consumer Discretionary sector had a 1-year return of 4% [6] - Par Pacific Holdings (Ticker: EAT) in the Consumer Discretionary sector had a 1-year return of 12% [7] - Deluxe Corporation (Ticker: PARR) in the Energy sector had a 1-year return of 13% [8] - Mueller Water Products (Ticker: MWA) in the Industrials sector had a 1-year return of 14% [10] - Kilroy Realty (Ticker: KRC) in the Real Estate sector had a 1-year return of 6% [11] - UGI Corporation (Ticker: UGI) in the Utilities sector had a 1-year return of 33% [12] - Clearway Energy (Ticker: CWEN) in the Utilities sector had a 1-year return of 23% [13]

Company Overview - Graham (GHM) shares increased by 7.3% to close at $69.5, with a notable trading volume indicating strong investor interest [1] - The stock has experienced a 16.9% gain over the past four weeks, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] Market Drivers - The rally in Graham's stock is primarily attributed to optimism regarding its performance in defense, energy, and process markets, bolstered by a robust U.S. defense budget and increased sales in China [1] - The upcoming quarterly earnings report is expected to show earnings of $0.25 per share, representing a year-over-year increase of 38.9%, with revenues projected at $51.06 million, up 8.6% from the previous year [2] Earnings Estimates and Trends - The consensus EPS estimate for Graham has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in earnings expectations [3] - Historical data suggests that stock prices typically do not continue to rise without trends in earnings estimate revisions, highlighting the importance of monitoring future earnings updates for Graham [3] Industry Context - Graham operates within the Zacks Manufacturing - General Industrial industry, where Generac Holdings (GNRC) is another key player, currently holding a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) with an unchanged EPS estimate of $1.82, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 35% [3][4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the expertise of Sensor Unlimited, who has a PhD in financial economics and has been covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry for the past decade [2] - Sensor Unlimited focuses on asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking and financial sectors, and housing markets [2] - The investing group Envision Early Retirement, led by Sensor Unlimited, offers solutions for generating high income and growth with isolated risks through dynamic asset allocation [2] Group 2 - Envision Early Retirement features two model portfolios: one for short-term survival/withdrawal and another for aggressive long-term growth [2] - The group provides direct access via chat for discussing ideas, monthly updates on holdings, tax discussions, and ticker critiques upon request [2]

Core Points - The event is the Graham Holdings 2025 Investor Day, which includes presentations that may contain forward-looking statements based on the company's current expectations [1] - Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could lead to actual results differing from those projected, including business strategies, growth prospects, and financial performance [2] - The company does not assume any obligation to update forward-looking statements after the date they are made, unless required by law [2] Company Introduction - Timothy J. O'Shaughnessy is introduced as the CEO of Graham Holdings [3]

Core Thesis - Graham Holdings Company (GHC) is viewed as a bullish long-term investment opportunity due to its diversified business model, strong financial performance, and undervalued shares [1][6]. Company Overview - GHC is a diversified, family-controlled conglomerate operating in sectors such as education, media, healthcare, industrial, and consumer services, formerly known as The Washington Post Company [2]. - The company rebranded in 2013 and includes businesses like Kaplan's education services, local TV broadcasting through Graham Media Group, home healthcare, manufacturing, and digital media assets [2]. Education Segment - The education segment, particularly Kaplan, is a cornerstone of GHC, focusing on standardized test preparation and professional licensing, although it faces margin pressures from digital, low-cost competitors [3]. Media Operations - Graham Media's local TV stations benefit from government licensing and retransmission fee protections, creating effective monopolies in local markets [3]. Healthcare and Manufacturing - The healthcare business operates in a fragmented sector with temporary barriers due to local relationships, while manufacturing and niche operations face more competitive environments [4]. Financial Performance - GHC has shown steady growth with five-year annualized revenue expansion in the low double digits and positive profit margins, although these figures lag behind broader market benchmarks [5]. - The company maintains disciplined capital allocation, reflected in a solid return on equity exceeding internal thresholds and an ROIC above its cost of capital [5]. Shareholder Value - Strong free cash flow generation and exceptional recent EPS growth of over 200% indicate effective management and alignment with shareholder interests [6]. - Ongoing share repurchases, with nearly half a million shares authorized for buyback, further demonstrate commitment to returning value to shareholders [5].

Summary of Graham Holdings Company 2025 Investor Day Company Overview - **Company**: Graham Holdings Company (NYSE: GHC) - **Event**: 2025 Investor Day held on December 9, 2025 Key Industry and Company Insights Financial Performance - 2025 has been a strong year for Graham Holdings, with major businesses performing at or above expectations [3][4] - Adjusted operating cash flow increased from $307 million to $310 million year-to-date, despite a $45 million reduction at Graham Media Group [9] - Kaplan's revenue increased by 4% year-to-date, with adjusted operating cash flow up 18% [9] - Healthcare segment revenue increased by 36% and adjusted operating cash flow by 46% year-to-date [15] Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes driving cash flow per share through owners' earnings growth, share repurchases, pension management, and acquisitions [4][5] - Acquisitions include the purchase of Hoover Architectural Solutions and a Honda dealership, enhancing existing operations [6][7] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with $1.236 billion in cash and securities against $732 million in debt, resulting in a net cash position of $504 million [27] Challenges and Risks - Graham Media Group faces challenges due to reduced political spending in non-election years, with revenues down 28% and operating income down 57% [36] - The local broadcast industry is experiencing audience fragmentation and economic challenges, leading to concerns about long-term viability [12][14] - Regulatory changes could impact the local broadcast landscape, with potential for a managed decline if no substantial changes occur [15] Growth Opportunities - The healthcare segment is expected to continue growing, with plans for geographical expansion, including entry into California [16][37] - Kaplan is focusing on enhancing its online offerings and has successfully transitioned from physical test prep centers to online leadership [10][11] - Framebridge is expanding its retail footprint, with a target of 20-25 new store openings in 2026 [23][24] Management and Personnel Updates - New appointments include Spiro Roiniotis as Chief Technology Officer and Dee Grine as CEO of Graham Healthcare Group [8] - The management team is focused on leveraging technology and improving operational efficiencies across segments [8][60] Market Dynamics - The company is navigating challenges in the education sector due to immigration policy changes affecting student enrollment [39][40] - Political advertising is expected to see record spending in the upcoming midterm elections, benefiting Graham Media Group [61][62] Capital Allocation Strategy - Graham Holdings is focused on bolt-on acquisitions and increasing ownership stakes in existing businesses as part of its capital allocation strategy [53][54] - The company is cautious about leveraging its balance sheet, prioritizing operational cash flow and securities for funding [43][44] Conclusion Graham Holdings Company is positioned for growth in several segments, particularly healthcare and education, while facing challenges in the media landscape. The management's strategic focus on cash flow, acquisitions, and operational efficiency aims to navigate these challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Group 1 - Residential Home Health and Hospice has been recognized as one of the Best Places to Work in Pennsylvania for the fourth consecutive year [1][3] - The award is based on workplace policies, practices, and a confidential employee survey measuring employee experience and workplace culture [2] - The company emphasizes its commitment to creating a positive and engaging employee experience, which in turn benefits the patients and families they serve [3] Group 2 - Graham Healthcare Group, the parent company of Residential Home Health and Hospice, employs over 3,000 professionals and serves approximately 19,000 patients daily [5] - Residential Home Health and Hospice provides home health, palliative, and hospice care across multiple states including Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania [6] - Best Companies Group, which conducts the evaluation for the Best Places to Work award, has been identifying great employers since 2004 and provides data to help companies improve employee recruitment and retention [10]

Core Insights - Longleaf Partners Small-Cap Fund reported a return of 2.03% in Q3 2025, underperforming compared to the Russell 3000's 8.18% and the Russell 2000's 12.39% [1] - The fund highlighted Graham Holdings Company (NYSE:GHC) as a key investment, noting its one-month return of 7.24% and a 52-week gain of 17.07% [2][3] Fund Performance - Longleaf Partners Small-Cap Fund's performance in Q3 2025 was significantly lower than major indices, indicating potential challenges in the small-cap sector [1] - The fund's top five holdings for 2025 are available for further insights into its investment strategy [1] Company Analysis: Graham Holdings Company - Graham Holdings Company (NYSE:GHC) is characterized as a diversified holding company with a market capitalization of $4.834 billion and a closing stock price of $1,108.03 on December 1, 2025 [2] - The company has shown strong performance, with value-per-share growth in the mid-single-digit percentage range, and is positioned to benefit from increased M&A activity in the broadcast television sector [3] Hedge Fund Interest - As of the end of Q3 2025, 23 hedge fund portfolios held shares of Graham Holdings Company, an increase from 20 in the previous quarter, indicating growing interest among institutional investors [4] - Despite this interest, some analysts suggest that certain AI stocks may present better investment opportunities with higher upside potential and lower risk [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the expertise of Sensor Unlimited, who has a PhD in financial economics and has been covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry for the past decade [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Sensor Unlimited focuses on asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking and financial sectors, and housing markets [2] - The company offers two model portfolios: one for short-term survival/withdrawal and another for aggressive long-term growth [2] Group 2: Services Offered - Features include direct access via chat for discussing ideas, monthly updates on all holdings, tax discussions, and ticker critiques by request [2]