Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Golar LNG (GLNG) reports results for the quarter ended December 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on February 25, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expecta ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the energy sector, highlighting ten top stocks that offer dividends and significant growth potential, as energy stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 in 2026 due to favorable market conditions [1]. Energy Sector Performance - Energy stocks have surged in 2026, with the XLE index up 23% compared to the S&P 500's 1% increase, driven by high oil prices around $70 per barrel, recovering demand from Asia, and geopolitical tensions [1]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates continued strong performance in the energy sector, with an average total return of approximately 19% for their top picks [1]. Key Stock Recommendations - **Cheniere Energy (LNG)**: Leading U.S. LNG exporter with a 0.94% dividend, positioned for growth in domestic and international markets. Goldman Sachs targets a price of $275, indicating a 25% potential gain [1]. - **EQT Corp (EQT)**: One of the largest U.S. natural gas producers with a 1.14% dividend, focused on low-cost production in the Appalachian Basin. Goldman Sachs sets a price target of $66, suggesting a 16% upside [2]. - **Golar LNG (GLNG)**: Newly added to the Conviction List, offering a 2.26% dividend. Goldman Sachs has a target price of $56, representing a 27% potential gain [2]. - **Viper Energy (VNOM)**: Focused on mineral and royalty interests in the Permian Basin, with a 5.39% dividend yield. Goldman Sachs targets a price of $54, indicating a 23% upside [2]. - **Vistra Corp (VST)**: An integrated electricity and power generation company with a 0.56% dividend, expected to support data centers and cloud computing. Goldman Sachs sets a price target of $205, representing a 28% potential gain [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Energy sector**, highlighting a significant repricing of energy equities in 2026, with the XLE index up **23%** compared to the S&P 500's **1%** increase. This strength is attributed to positive GDP revisions, a tech rotation, and favorable oil momentum amid geopolitical uncertainties and smaller-than-expected surpluses [1][2]. Core Investment Ideas - The report identifies **10 stocks** with attractive total return potential, averaging **19%** total return, based on a mid-cycle view of **$70** Brent and **$3.75** Henry Hub prices [1][5]. Key Stocks and Their Investment Thesis 1. **HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)** - Current Price: **$58.76**, Price Target: **$64** (9% upside) - Expected total return of **12%** with a **3%** dividend yield. - Strong balance sheet, non-refining earnings contributions, and exposure to a tighter West Coast market are key drivers [6]. 2. **ConocoPhillips (COP)** - Current Price: **$111.21**, Price Target: **$120** (8% upside) - Expected total return of **11%** with a **3%** dividend yield. - Major growth projects and cost reductions expected to generate **$7 billion** in incremental free cash flow by 2029 at **$70/b** WTI [7][9]. 3. **EQT Corporation (EQT)** - Current Price: **$56.93**, Price Target: **$66** (16% upside) - Expected total return of **17%** with a **1%** dividend yield. - Strong inventory position in the low-cost Appalachian Basin and improved cost structure post-acquisition are highlighted [10]. 4. **Viper Energy, Inc. (VNOM)** - Current Price: **$43.85**, Price Target: **$54** (23% upside) - Expected total return of **29%** with a **5%** dividend yield. - No-capex business model and commitment to return **75%** of cash available for distribution to shareholders are key factors [11]. 5. **Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG)** - Current Price: **$169.01**, Price Target: **$187** (11% upside) - Expected total return of **13%** with a **2%** dividend yield. - Strong operational execution and commitment to return capital to shareholders are emphasized [13]. 6. **Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)** - Current Price: **$31.45**, Price Target: **$32** (2% upside) - Expected total return of **6%** with a **4%** dividend yield. - Significant natural gas-focused backlog and recent earnings beat are noted [14]. 7. **Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)** - Current Price: **$219.41**, Price Target: **$275** (25% upside) - Expected total return of **26%** with a **1%** dividend yield. - Highly contracted asset footprint provides insulation from commodity price downside [15]. 8. **Golar LNG Limited (GLNG)** - Current Price: **$44.20**, Price Target: **$56** (27% upside) - Expected total return of **29%** with a **2%** dividend yield. - Shift towards floating liquefaction business and potential for significant EBITDA growth are highlighted [18]. 9. **Halliburton Company (HAL)** - Current Price: **$35.03**, Price Target: **$40** (14% upside) - Expected total return of **16%** with a **2%** dividend yield. - Strong performance in international markets and potential for margin expansion are noted [19]. 10. **Vistra Corp. (VST)** - Current Price: **$160.15**, Price Target: **$205** (28% upside) - Expected total return of **29%** with a **1%** dividend yield. - Upside potential from contracting remaining nuclear generation and favorable valuation metrics are discussed [21]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic factors, commodity prices, and operational execution as key risks for the companies mentioned [26][27][29][30][31][34]. - The overall sentiment in the energy sector remains constructive, with expectations of continued strength in energy services and integrated oil stocks, despite some relative weakness in gas exploration and production [23]. This comprehensive overview captures the essential insights and investment opportunities within the energy sector as discussed in the conference call.

Core Thesis - Golar LNG Limited presents a compelling investment opportunity following recent market volatility and positive developments, with strong analyst support and operational milestones driving stock recovery [2][5]. Company Overview - Golar LNG Limited designs, converts, owns, and operates marine infrastructure for the liquefaction of natural gas [2]. Stock Performance - The stock was trading at $38.59 as of January 12th, with a trailing P/E of 70.16 and a forward P/E of 90.09 [1]. - The stock traded at $45 on September 1st but faced pressure due to market reactions to provincial elections on September 7th, before rebounding [2]. Analyst Ratings - Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $54 target, while Citi also issued a buy rating with a $51 target, indicating significant upside potential [2]. - The stock is expected to break above $46, supported by both fundamental and macro catalysts [5]. Operational Developments - Golar confirmed that all Conditions Precedent for the 20-year charter of its MKII FLNG with Southern Energy in Argentina had been fulfilled, securing a long-term revenue stream [3]. - The recent election outcome in Argentina reduces political risk and increases the probability of stable policy support, potentially accelerating M&A discussions [3]. Commodity Exposure - Golar's unique commodity-linked upside is highlighted, with Goldman Sachs noting that if FOB prices average $9/mmbtu, this could translate into an incremental $2.2 billion in EBITDA backlog, primarily from Argentina assets [4]. Future Outlook - The combination of secured long-term charters, commodity exposure, reduced political risk, and analyst recognition positions Golar as an attractive risk/reward opportunity, offering potential for substantial upside in the near term [5].

Core Insights - The investment thesis for Golar LNG Limited (GLNG) is based on its strong long-term earnings growth potential, supported by its liquefaction-as-a-service model [1] Investment Approach - The investment strategy focuses on medium to long-term investments while also considering short-term opportunities to generate alpha [1] - The analysis is grounded in a bottom-up approach, assessing the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of individual companies [1] - The goal is to identify companies with solid fundamentals, sustainable competitive advantages, and growth potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The investment thesis on Golar LNG Limited (GLNG) is based on its strong long-term earnings growth potential, supported by its liquefaction-as-a-service model [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on long-term investments while also considering short-term opportunities to uncover alpha [1] - The analysis is bottom-up, emphasizing the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of individual companies [1] - The investment duration is medium to long-term, targeting companies with solid fundamentals and sustainable competitive advantages [1]

Core Viewpoint - The sale of Golar LNG Limited shares by Beck Capital Management illustrates how even financially strong LNG operators can lose favor during shifts in capital cycles [1][2]. Company Overview - Golar LNG Limited's current share price is $36.99, with a market capitalization of $3.8 billion, revenue of $326.6 million, and net income of $59.8 million for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4]. - The company specializes in designing, building, owning, and operating marine infrastructure for liquefaction and regasification of LNG, focusing on long-term charters and midstream LNG value chain [4]. Financial Performance - In the latest quarter, Golar reported a net income of $31 million attributable to shareholders and an adjusted EBITDA of $83 million, supported by long-term FLNG charters with a backlog of approximately $17 billion [5]. - The company maintains strong liquidity with $661 million in total cash at the end of the quarter and has authorized a $150 million share buyback while sustaining a quarterly dividend of $0.25 [5]. Market Position - Golar LNG's shares have decreased by 9% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500, which has increased by 15% during the same period [3]. - Golar now represents 0.5% of Beck Capital Management's $433.8 million in reportable U.S. equity holdings, down from a previous stake of 172,826 shares to 54,860 shares [2]. Investment Considerations - The company is viewed as a cash-generating infrastructure play with long-term visibility, although it faces challenges in gaining market recognition compared to mega-cap technology stocks [7]. - The trimming of Golar's position by Beck Capital Management may reflect risk management rather than a loss of confidence in the company's fundamentals [7].

Core Insights - LVS Advisory's Growth Portfolio gained 15.7% and the Event-Driven Portfolio gained 10.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's 14.8% gain and the high-yield bond index's 7.3% return [1] - The firm focuses on investments in power generation businesses, driven by the thesis that power demand is growing faster than supply [1] Company Analysis: Golar LNG Limited - Golar LNG Limited (NASDAQ:GLNG) is highlighted as a key investment, providing marine infrastructure for liquefaction of natural gas [2] - The stock had a one-month return of 0.70% but lost 9.40% over the last 52 weeks, closing at $38.67 per share with a market capitalization of $3.959 billion on December 08, 2025 [2] - Golar LNG operates by converting LNG ships into floating LNG (FLNG) plants and leasing them to oil and gas companies on 20-year contracts, receiving a fixed toll plus commodity price upside [3]

Core Insights - Golar LNG Limited (GLNG) reported mixed third-quarter 2025 results with earnings missing estimates while revenues exceeded expectations [1][8] - Quarterly earnings were 43 cents per share, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 46 cents, and showed a year-over-year decline [1][8] - Revenues reached $122.5 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $121.4 million, and improved by 89% year over year [1][8] - Adjusted EBITDA was $83.42 million, reflecting a 41% year-over-year increase [1] Financial Position - As of the end of Q3 2025, GLNG had cash and cash equivalents of $611.17 million, down from $783.42 million in the previous quarter [2] - The company's share of contractual debt increased by 38% year over year to $2.02 billion [2][8] - A dividend of 25 cents per share was approved for Q3 2025, to be paid on or around Nov. 24, 2025 [2] Shareholder Actions - GLNG's board approved a new $150 million share buyback program on Nov. 4, 2025, following the full utilization of a previous buyback program [3] - As of Sept. 30, 2025, there were 102.4 million shares issued and outstanding [3] Contracts and Agreements - On Oct. 23, 2025, GLNG finalized a 20-year charter agreement with Southern Energy S.A. in Argentina, securing an estimated $8 billion in net earnings backlog [4] - The charter involves Golar's 3.5 MTPA MK II floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) unit, expected to generate approximately $400 million in annual EBITDA [4] Industry Context - Other companies in the industry, such as Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V., reported strong earnings, with Vista's adjusted EPS of $1.48 beating estimates [7] - Chevron Corporation also reported adjusted EPS of $1.85, exceeding expectations, indicating a competitive landscape in the oil and gas sector [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The existing fleet of three FLNGs is fully contracted with a total EBITDA backlog of $17 billion before commodity upside and inflationary adjustments [2][4] - The company generated $221 million of adjusted EBITDA over the last 12 months, with a net income of $46 million for the quarter [3][28] - The cash position stands at $1 billion, with a net debt position of approximately $1.4 billion [3][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hilli generated $51 million of adjusted EBITDA, while GIMI contributed $48 million during the quarter [27] - The company added $8 billion of firm EBITDA backlog through the successful fulfillment of all conditions precedent (CPs) for the Mark II's 20-year charter in Argentina [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is observing strong interest in long-term offtake agreements in Argentina, particularly due to the country's significant shale gas reserves [42] - The FLNG industry is experiencing increased adoption, with a growing number of projects being planned globally [22][75] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The key focus is on developing the fourth FLNG unit, with significant technical and commercial progress made in deciding on size and design [2][3] - The company aims to maintain a maximum of one unchartered FLNG at a time while pursuing long-term infrastructure contracts [23][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the earnings visibility for all assets through 2045 and beyond, with expectations for EBITDA to quadruple by 2028 [4][30] - The company is positioned to benefit from lower production costs compared to the largest LNG producers, enhancing its competitive advantage [25][81] Other Important Information - A new $150 million buyback program has been approved, continuing the company's track record of returning capital to shareholders [30][38] - The company is in advanced stages of securing a $1.2 billion bank refinancing facility for GIMI, expected to close within the quarter [11][31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on CESSA's strategy for long-term offtake agreements - Management noted that CESSA is actively working to lock in offtake for Hilli volumes and expects to sign contracts soon, given the strong interest from major industrial and trading houses [42][43] Question: Future projects and CAPEX to EBITDA ratio - Management indicated that while there is cost inflation, they aim to target similar CAPEX to EBITDA ratios for new projects as seen in existing projects [44][45] Question: GIMI's capacity and potential for production increase - Management confirmed that GIMI's nameplate capacity is 2.7 MTPA, with potential to produce more than 2.4 MTPA through debottlenecking exercises [48][49] Question: Competition in the FLNG market - Management acknowledged increased competition for shipyard slots and long lead items but emphasized that Golar remains the only proven provider of FLNG as a service [51][52] Question: Buyback program metrics and deployment - Management stated that the new buyback program will be executed opportunistically, similar to past approaches [56][57] Question: Status of the pipeline for Argentina - Management provided updates on the pipeline construction timeline, indicating that it is expected to be completed within the timeline for Mark II's arrival [70][71]