Core Insights - The third quarter of 2025 was marked by strong performance in US equities, driven by optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and a boom in artificial intelligence (AI) [1] - Mar Vista U.S. Quality Premier Strategy achieved a return of +6.41% net of fees, underperforming the Russell 1000 Index and S&P 500 Index, which returned +8.00% and +8.12% respectively [1] Company Overview: Moody's Corporation (NYSE:MCO) - Moody's Corporation is a leading integrated risk assessment firm, with a market capitalization of $87.902 billion as of October 8, 2025 [2] - The stock experienced a one-month return of -3.16% and a 52-week gain of 3.60% [2] Performance Analysis - Moody's stock decline in the third quarter was attributed to concerns over increasing competition in the AI sector, as reported by FactSet [3] - The company is actively investing in AI, aiming to enhance its ecosystem for clients in banking, insurance, and asset management, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage [3] Investment Sentiment - Moody's Corporation is not among the top 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 82 hedge fund portfolios holding the stock at the end of the second quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter [4] - While Moody's has potential as an investment, there are AI stocks perceived to offer greater upside with less downside risk [4]

Core Insights - The unsung hero of Warren Buffett's long-term investing success is dividend stocks, which have significantly contributed to his nearly 20% annualized return over 60 years [2][3] - Buffett's retirement is anticipated to impact Berkshire Hathaway shareholders due to his exceptional track record and investment philosophy focused on value and long-term growth [2][4] Dividend Stocks Performance - Research indicates that dividend stocks have outperformed non-payers, with an average annual return of 9.2% compared to 4.31% for non-dividend stocks over a 51-year period [3] - Companies that consistently pay dividends tend to be profitable and provide a transparent long-term growth outlook, aligning with Buffett's investment strategy [4] Berkshire Hathaway's Holdings - Berkshire Hathaway's long-held stocks, such as Coca-Cola, American Express, and Moody's, have generated substantial yields on cost, with yields of approximately 63% for Coca-Cola and 37% for both Moody's and American Express [6][12] - The cost basis for these stocks is notably low, with Coca-Cola at $3.25 per share, American Express at $8.49, and Moody's at $10.05, leading to impressive returns from dividends alone [10] Dividend Income Generation - Berkshire Hathaway collects over $5 billion annually in dividend income, including traditional payouts and preferred income from investments like Occidental Petroleum [11] - Coca-Cola has increased its annual payout for 63 consecutive years, classifying it as a Dividend King, showcasing the benefits of holding high-quality stocks for extended periods [12] Future Potential - Berkshire Hathaway may continue to generate significant yields, particularly with its stake in Bank of America, which has been increasing its payouts since the financial crisis [13] - The focus on businesses with sustainable competitive advantages, such as American Express, contributes to long-term share price and dividend appreciation [14][15]

Core Insights - Moody's Corp. reported strong financial performance in the first half of 2025, with revenues of $3.82 billion and earnings per share of $6.66, reflecting year-over-year increases of 6.1% and 8.1% respectively, partly due to the acquisition of CAPE Analytics [1][7] - The second quarter alone generated revenues of $1.9 billion, with $1.01 billion coming from the Moody's Analytics division, raising questions about the sustainability of this growth [1][4] Revenue and Earnings Trends - Moody's Analytics division achieved annualized recurring revenue (ARR) of $3.3 billion, up 8.1% year-over-year, primarily driven by Decision Solutions [2] - Recurring and transaction revenues for Moody's Investors Service accounted for 67% of total segment revenues in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 100 basis points from the previous year, influenced by growth in Corporate Finance revenues [2] - Management projects earnings for 2025 to be between $12.25 and $12.75 per share, a narrower range than the previous expectation [3] Operating Performance - Moody's operating margin was reported at 43.5%, down 20 basis points from the previous year due to increased restructuring and depreciation costs [3][7] - The company has achieved annualized savings exceeding $100 million through its efficiency program, which is expected to continue benefiting the company [3] Competitive Landscape - MSCI Inc. reported a 9.4% increase in total operating revenues to $1.52 billion for the first half of 2025, driven by higher assets under management [5] - S&P Global Inc. achieved net revenues of $7.53 billion, up 7% year-over-year, supported by strong market intelligence and subscription revenues [6]

Core Insights - Moody's has maintained Côte d'Ivoire's sovereign rating at Ba2 with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in the country's economic and fiscal development trajectory ahead of the presidential elections [2] Economic Outlook - Moody's forecasts a GDP growth rate of 6.6% for Côte d'Ivoire in 2025-2026, driven by the effective implementation of national development plans, increased private investment in strategic sectors (oil, minerals, air transport), and improved government governance [2] - Public fiscal revenue is expected to reach 18% of GDP by 2025, supported by high gold prices and increased oil production, with the fiscal deficit projected to decrease to 2.5% [2] Regional Context - The security situation in West Africa is expected to stabilize as three Sahel countries officially exit the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) in 2024 [2] Risks - Despite positive economic indicators, Côte d'Ivoire faces ongoing political and social risks, including high youth unemployment, increasing regional development disparities, and weak education and healthcare social safety nets, which could lead to social unrest [2] - Moody's indicated that a further upgrade in the rating could be considered if Côte d'Ivoire continues to improve social indicators without increasing the fiscal deficit [2]

Core Viewpoint - Standard & Poor's (S&P) upgraded Morocco's long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings from "BB+/B" to "BBB-/A-3", restoring its investment-grade status lost during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 [1] Group 1: Rating Upgrade - Morocco is now the only African Eurobond issuer with an investment-grade rating [1] - The upgrade is attributed to Morocco's robust economic policies, enhanced fiscal discipline, and significant growth in foreign exchange reserves [1] - This rating increase will enable Morocco to secure international financing under more favorable conditions [1]

Core Thesis - Moody's Corporation (MCO) is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong market position and growth potential despite being recognized as a high-quality business [2][6] Business Segments - The company operates through two main segments: Moody's Investor Services (MIS), which contributes approximately 70% of EBITDA, and Moody's Analytics (MA), which accounts for about 30% [2] - MIS is the second-largest credit rating agency globally, with a market share exceeding 80% when combined with S&P Global [2] Financial Performance - MIS enjoys significant pricing power and margins near 60%, with revenue primarily driven by issuance [3] - Historical growth averages around 6% CAGR over multi-year periods, despite recent volatility due to the pandemic and interest rate cycles [3] - MA's subscription-based model generates over 95% recurring revenues and exhibits high-single-digit organic growth, providing a counterbalance to MIS's cyclicality [3] Growth Drivers - Long-term growth is supported by steady issuance volume growth, annual price increases, and a refinancing tailwind, with approximately $4.9 trillion of U.S. and EMEA corporate debt maturing over the next four years [4] - The company is expected to benefit from compounding price hikes and advancements in generative AI, which may lead to structural margin expansion [4] - Private credit, often seen as a threat, is emerging as a growth driver, with Moody's securing mandates and monetizing portfolio-level analytics [4] Future Outlook - EBITDA growth is projected to compound in the low double digits, with free cash flow per share expected in the mid-teens [5] - Consensus estimates may underestimate the durability of MCO's growth trajectory, with potential upside exceeding 50% over two years, even with modest multiple compression [5] - Key catalysts for growth include upcoming earnings reports and potential interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 [5] Market Position - The company's entrenched duopoly and high cash generation provide a cushion against downside risks, supported by a history of opportunistic buybacks [5] - Despite a recent stock price depreciation of approximately 2.17%, the bullish thesis remains intact due to the company's strong market position and pricing power [6]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's warns that the rise of "cryptoization" driven by stablecoins poses increasing challenges to monetary sovereignty and financial stability in emerging markets [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Monetary Sovereignty - The adoption of stablecoins is weakening the control central banks have over interest rates and exchange rates, as these currencies are often pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar [1][2]. - There is a risk of "deposit flight" from domestic banks to stablecoins or crypto wallets, which could affect bank liquidity and pose a potential threat to overall financial stability [1]. Group 2: Growth of Digital Assets - As of 2024, the number of global digital asset holders has reached approximately 562 million, reflecting a 33% increase from the previous year [1]. - The fastest growth in digital assets is observed in emerging markets such as Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa, driven by remittances, mobile payments, and inflation hedging needs [1]. Group 3: Systemic Risks of Stablecoins - Despite being perceived as relatively safe, the rapid growth of stablecoins introduces systemic vulnerabilities, including the risk of a bank run on reserves and potential costly government bailouts if they become unpegged [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Gaps and Imbalances - The global adoption of crypto assets shows significant regional imbalances, with less than one-third of countries implementing comprehensive digital asset regulations, exposing many economies to market volatility and systemic shocks [4]. - The regulatory landscape is highly fragmented, and the differing growth patterns between developed and emerging markets highlight the potential for financial instability as regulatory measures lag behind [4].

Core Insights - The outdated capital gains tax caps are identified as a significant factor contributing to the "lock-in effect" in the housing market, preventing millions of homes from being sold and impacting families in need [1][4] Group 1: Lock-in Effect - Many empty-nest seniors are "locked in" to larger homes due to the fear of incurring steep capital gains taxes, which discourages them from downsizing [2][3] - This issue is particularly severe in high-cost metro areas, where selling even modest homes can lead to substantial tax bills, resulting in a misallocation of housing resources [3][4] Group 2: Tax Code and Solutions - The capital gains exclusion caps established by the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 have not been adjusted for inflation or home price growth, leading to significant tax burdens for homeowners wishing to move [4][6] - Proposals suggest indexing the exclusion caps to inflation or home price growth, which could alleviate the lock-in effect and increase housing inventory by enabling empty nesters to downsize [6] Group 3: Economic Implications - The phenomenon of "everyday millionaires" highlights that many Americans, despite having inflated asset values, cannot afford the taxes associated with selling their homes, further complicating the housing market [5] - A hypothetical example illustrates that a widow selling her home could face over $100,000 in taxes, which represents more than 20% of her downsizing proceeds, emphasizing the financial impact of the current tax structure [7]

Core Insights - The Risk Asia Awards 2025 recognize excellence in various categories related to risk management and financial services across Asia [1][2][3] Group 1: Derivatives Awards - Derivatives house of the year for Asia is awarded to UBS [1] - Other notable winners include Daiwa Securities for Japan, Crédit Agricole CIB for Hong Kong and South Korea, and OCBC Bank for Singapore [1] - The award for derivatives house of the year in China goes to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, while CTBC Bank wins for Taiwan [1] Group 2: Specialized Awards - Standard Chartered is recognized as the interest rate derivatives house of the year [1] - BofA Securities wins the currency derivatives house of the year award [1] - UBS is awarded both equity and credit derivatives house of the year [1] Group 3: Technology and Risk Solutions - Murex is named technology vendor of the year and also wins for system support and implementation [2] - S&P Dow Jones Indices is recognized for quantitative investment solutions [2] - FactSet is awarded for risk solutions [2] Group 4: Compliance and Risk Management - The best AI solution for risk management is awarded to SAS Institute [2] - Wolters Kluwer receives multiple awards for various risk management solutions including IFRS 9 and credit risk management [2] - NICE Actimize is recognized for its AML solution of the year [2]

Core Insights - Moody's maintains a stable credit outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, predicting accelerated economic growth in 2025 and 2026, which will aid governments in managing debt and increasing revenue [1] Economic Growth Projections - The economic growth rate for Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to reach approximately 4.7%, driven by a rebound in global commodity demand, infrastructure investment, and easing inflation [1] - This growth momentum is anticipated to enhance fiscal conditions and support stable sovereign credit ratings [1] Regional Challenges - Some economies, particularly South Africa, may experience growth rates below 1.5%, while Nigeria and Kenya face high borrowing costs and persistent inflation [1] - Moody's warns that weak tax revenues and political risks ahead of elections could overshadow the optimistic outlook [1] Debt Management - It is expected that debt levels will gradually decrease as revenues increase and spending constraints are implemented [1] - However, high financing costs remain a concern, necessitating ongoing reforms by governments to avoid fiscal stress [1]