Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) is one of the most profitable value stocks to invest in right now. On December 7, Jefferies raised the firm’s price target on Newmont to $120 from $113 with a Buy rating. This sentiment was announced as part of the firm’s 2026 preview for the metals and mining group. Jefferies anticipates a major strategic shift for the metals sector in 2026, maintaining a high-conviction bullish stance on gold equities while turning more cautious on copper stocks due to their elevated valuat ...

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Core Insights - The State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) is a passively managed ETF launched on December 16, 1998, providing broad exposure to the Materials - Broad segment of the equity market [1][3] - The ETF has amassed over $5.26 billion in assets, making it one of the largest in its category [3] - XLB has a low expense ratio of 0.08%, making it the least expensive product in the space, with a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 1.91% [4] Fund Details - XLB seeks to match the performance of the Materials Select Sector Index, which represents the materials sector of the S&P 500 Index [3] - The ETF has a heavy allocation in the Materials sector, approximately 100% of the portfolio [5] - The top holding, Linde Plc (LIN), accounts for about 16.74% of total assets, with the top 10 holdings making up approximately 63.1% of total assets under management [6] Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, XLB has increased by roughly 8.48%, and it is up approximately 3.71% over the last year [7] - The fund has traded between $37.135 and $46.305 in the past 52 weeks, with a beta of 1.01 and a standard deviation of 16.82% over the trailing three-year period, indicating medium risk [7] Investment Alternatives - XLB holds a Zacks ETF Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), based on expected asset class return, expense ratio, and momentum [8] - Other ETFs in the space include SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources ETF (GNR) and FlexShares Morningstar Global Upstream Natural Resources ETF (GUNR), with GNR having $3.70 billion in assets and GUNR having $5.62 billion [10]

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation (NEM) experienced a decline in gold production for Q3 2025, with a 15% year-over-year and 4% sequential decrease, totaling 1.42 million ounces, marking the third consecutive quarter of production decline [1][7]. Production Factors - The reduction in production was attributed to lower grades, planned shutdowns at Penasquito and Lihir, and the cessation of mining operations at the Subika open pit at Ahafo South. Additionally, strategic asset sales aimed at focusing on Tier-1 operations have impacted production levels [2][7]. Future Production Expectations - Newmont anticipates maintaining its gold production target for 2025 at approximately 5.9 million ounces. For Q4, production is expected to be around 1.415 million ounces, which represents a projected 25% year-over-year decline [3][7]. Competitive Landscape - Barrick Mining Corporation reported a 12% year-over-year decline in Q3 2025 gold production to 829,000 ounces, primarily due to the suspension of operations at its Loulo-Gounkoto mine. Barrick expects its full-year production to be in the lower end of the range of 3.15-3.5 million ounces [4]. - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited's payable gold production was 866,963 ounces in Q3, slightly up from the previous year. The company maintains its full-year production expectations between 3.3 million and 3.5 million ounces [5]. Stock Performance - Newmont's shares have increased by 70.5% over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry, which rose by 56.8%, largely due to a rally in gold prices [6]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Newmont's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates a year-over-year increase of 74.1% and 16.6%, respectively, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [8]. Valuation Metrics - Newmont is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 14.2, which is approximately 4.6% higher than the industry average of 13.57X, and holds a Value Score of B [9]. Stock Ranking - Newmont stock is currently rated with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [11].

Thesis Summary Newmont Corporation (NEM) is not just a gold miner. It is my insurance policy against Federal Reserve policy, fiscal dominance, and currency debasement. The Fed has made its position clear. Liquidity is returning, balance-sheet expansion has resumed under a ...

Core Thesis - Newmont Corporation (NEM) is positioned as an insurance policy against Federal Reserve policy, fiscal dominance, and currency debasement [1] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has made its position clear regarding liquidity and balance-sheet expansion [1]

Summary of Mining Equities Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector Performance**: In 2025, mining equities outperformed equity benchmarks, primarily driven by gold and copper, while ferrous metals and energy remained flat or declined [1][15] - **2026 Outlook**: Expectations for copper, aluminium, and lithium to outperform due to supply constraints and energy transition, with a cautious view on traditional end markets in developed economies [2][15] Key Commodities Insights Copper - **Market Dynamics**: The medium-term outlook for copper remains bullish, with expectations of market tightness in 2026 due to limited growth in global mine output and a deficit in refined output [3][4] - **Investment Opportunities**: Freeport is highlighted as a top pick due to its discounted valuation and expected production recovery at the Grasberg mine [4][23] Aluminium - **Demand vs Supply**: The outlook for aluminium is mixed; while demand holds up, supply constraints are expected, particularly from China and developed markets [5][24] - **Investment Recommendation**: A buy recommendation for Norsk Hydro is reiterated, with expectations of stable operations and potential cash returns [8][24] Gold - **Market Sentiment**: Gold remains a consensus macro trade, with equities delivering strong returns in 2025. However, valuations are less compelling than at the start of the year [9][22] - **Top Picks**: Barrick and Newmont are identified as top picks, with potential for further catalysts in 2026 [10][22] Iron Ore - **Price Forecast**: The medium-term outlook for iron ore is bearish, with prices expected to stabilize around $100/t in the short term and decline to $90/t by 2027 due to increased supply from Simandou [11][20] Coal - **Market Conditions**: Met coal prices have risen above $200/t due to demand and supply disruptions, while thermal coal remains stable at $110/t [12][20] Diversified Miners - **Performance Comparison**: Vale outperformed in the bulks sector, while RIO and BHP performed in line with benchmarks. A preference for RIO over Vale and BHP is noted due to better growth prospects [13][25] Earnings and Price Target Changes - **Adjustments**: Earnings estimates and price targets have been adjusted based on commodity price forecasts, with notable upgrades for copper miners like FCX and KGHM [28][29] Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: The report emphasizes a selective investment approach in mining equities, focusing on commodities with strong fundamentals and potential for price gains, particularly copper, aluminium, and gold [2][15][22]

Core Insights - The article discusses the resilience of gold and gold mining companies, indicating that they remain attractive despite market fluctuations [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold mining companies, represented by indices such as GDX and GDXJ, continue to show strength in the current market environment [1]. - The article highlights the ongoing interest from investors in gold as a safe-haven asset, suggesting that gold bugs remain optimistic [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on identifying growth opportunities with favorable risk/reward ratios, particularly in the context of gold and related sectors [1]. - The strategy emphasizes avoiding overhyped stocks while targeting undervalued stocks with significant recovery potential, particularly in the gold mining sector [1].

Core Viewpoint - The illegal mining activities at Newmont Corp.'s Minas Conga project in northern Peru are causing significant concerns, as they threaten both the environment and the progress of legal mining operations [1][3]. Group 1: Company Impact - Newmont Corp.'s Minas Conga project, valued at an estimated $4.8 billion, has been stalled since 2010 due to environmental concerns and local opposition, leading to illegal mining encroachment [3]. - The presence of illegal miners is delaying progress for Newmont and other companies like Southern Copper Corp., First Quantum Minerals Ltd., and MMG Ltd., as they face similar challenges with informal mining operations on their concessions [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The surge in illegal mining in Peru is attributed to near-record gold prices, which incentivize informal diggers in impoverished rural areas [2]. - The Peruvian government is struggling to manage the rise in illegal mining, with controversial permits like Reinfo allowing informal operations under loose regulations, which has faced opposition from the mining industry chamber SNMPE [4]. - Environmental degradation is a significant concern, as illegal mining is contaminating local rivers with mercury, exacerbating the situation for communities that initially opposed the Conga project in favor of agriculture [5].