We came across a bullish thesis on Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. on Asymmetric Capital’s Substack by Srikanth Thangellamudi. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NOG. Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s share was trading at $24.82 as of January 29th. NOG’s trailing and forward P/E were 13.64 and 11.14 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Why These Energy Stocks are Losing This Week Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitatio ...

Date: February 26, 2026 Time: 8:00 a.m. Central Time Dial-In: (800) 715-9871 International Dial-In: (646) 932-3411 Conference ID: 4503139 Webcast: Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call ...

Key Points Northern Oil and Gas stock is cheap, pays a high yield, and can benefit from global energy uncertainty. Increasing well counts show expanding operations, albeit at the cost of free cash flow. Northern Oil and Gas has a business model that keeps costs low. 10 stocks we like better than Northern Oil and Gas › 2026 is starting off with fresh uncertainty regarding the situation in Venezuela and global oil markets. The oil-rich nation, with larger reserves than Saudi Arabia, has been produ ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly focusing on heavily shorted stocks, either to capitalize on further declines in value or to benefit from potential short squeezes [1][3]. Group 1: Characteristics of Heavily Shorted Stocks - A stock is considered "heavily shorted" when a significant number of traders and institutional investors believe it is fundamentally overvalued, leading to expectations of a price decline [2]. - High short interest often indicates a strong conviction among professional traders that the company faces serious risks, while retail traders may see it as an opportunity for rapid gains through a short squeeze [3]. Group 2: Short Squeeze Dynamics - A short squeeze occurs when a stock's price unexpectedly rises, forcing short sellers to buy back shares to cover their positions, which creates a spike in demand and further drives up the price [4]. - The volatility associated with a short squeeze can result in returns that significantly exceed typical stock movements within a short time frame [4]. Group 3: Most Heavily Shorted Stocks - As of December 29, the following stocks are the most heavily shorted, with market caps above $2 billion and free floats above 5 million: - Lucid Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:LCID) - 54.51% - Choice Hotels International, Inc. (NYSE:CHH) - 50.20% - Avis Budget Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAR) - 48.80% - Revolve Group, Inc. (NYSE:RVLV) - 43.14% - Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE:MPW) - 37.13% - MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MARA) - 36.23% - Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (NYSE:HIMS) - 35.22% - TransMedics Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMDX) - 35.11% - Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) - 34.27% - Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) - 33.27% [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. has updated its hedge profile following a recent joint acquisition in Ohio's Utica region, emphasizing its strategy to protect its capital program through financial derivative instruments [1] Hedging Update - The company continues to implement its policy of entering into financial derivative instruments to lock in future commodity prices for a portion of its expected production [1] - Northern Oil and Gas has added substantial gas hedges as part of its risk management strategy [1]

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Core Insights - The article highlights a free two-week trial offer for the Distressed Value Investing community, which provides exclusive research on various companies and investment opportunities [1] - The author, Aaron Chow, has over 15 years of analytical experience and co-founded a mobile gaming company that was acquired by PENN Entertainment, showcasing his expertise in the industry [2] Company and Industry Summary - Distressed Value Investing focuses on value opportunities and distressed plays, particularly in the energy sector, indicating a strategic emphasis on sectors that may offer significant returns despite current challenges [2] - The community includes access to a portfolio of historic research with over 1,000 reports on more than 100 companies, suggesting a comprehensive resource for investors seeking in-depth analysis [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current landscape of heavily shorted stocks, highlighting the reasons traders engage in short selling and the potential for short squeezes as investment opportunities [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Heavily Shorted Stocks - Stocks become heavily shorted when experienced traders and institutional investors believe the company is fundamentally overvalued, anticipating a price decline [2]. - Short sellers borrow shares, sell them at high prices, and aim to repurchase them at lower prices for profit, indicating a strong conviction about the company's risks [3]. Current Market Data - As of December 10, 2025, the top 10 most shorted stocks with market caps above $2 billion and free floats above 5 million are listed, ranked by short interest percentage [5]. - The most heavily shorted stock is Lucid Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID) with a short interest of 52.70%, followed by Avis Budget Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: CAR) at 51.53% and Choice Hotels International, Inc. (NYSE: CHH) at 49.05% [6][7]. Market Characteristics - Heavily shorted stocks often reflect a battleground between negative fundamentals and speculative trading, where short squeezes can lead to significant, rapid gains but also come with high risk and volatility [8]. - Monitoring short interest can help identify potential short squeeze candidates, although timing such trades is challenging [8].

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Acquisition Overview - Agreement to acquire a 49% interest in Ohio Utica upstream and midstream assets for $588 million[3, 10] - The acquisition includes approximately 35,000 net acres with over 100 identified gross locations[4, 10] - The asset includes over 140 miles of gathering pipelines and approximately 90 miles of water delivery systems[4, 10] - Expected to close by the end of Q1 2026, with an effective date of July 1, 2025[5, 10] Production and Financial Projections - 2026 net production is estimated at approximately 65 MMcfe per day, with an anticipated growth rate of over 30% CAGR through the end of the decade[4, 10] - Projected cash flow from operations for CY2026 is approximately $100 million net to NOG, with substantial growth projected[10] - Average annual capital spending of approximately $100 million is expected on the asset through the end of the decade[10] Strategic Rationale - The acquisition strategically positions NOG to benefit from global demand growth for gas driven by LNG, AI, and continued growth in power[10, 12] - The integrated midstream system enhances margins, improving combined asset operating costs by over $0.70/mcfe[15] - The midstream cash flows are expected to grow by 140% by the end of the decade[10]