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Fast-paced Momentum Stock Plains GP (PAGP) Is Still Trading at a Bargain
ZACKS· 2025-01-13 14:51
Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on "buying high and selling higher" rather than traditional "buying low and selling high" strategies, aiming for quicker profits [1] Group 1: Momentum Investing Characteristics - Momentum investing can be risky as stocks may lose momentum if their valuations exceed future growth potential, leading to potential losses for investors [2] - A safer approach involves investing in bargain stocks that exhibit recent price momentum, utilizing tools like the Zacks Momentum Style Score to identify such opportunities [3] Group 2: Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) Analysis - Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) has shown a four-week price change of 4.6%, indicating growing investor interest [4] - Over the past 12 weeks, PAGP's stock has gained 8.7%, with a beta of 1.58, suggesting it moves 58% more than the market [5] - PAGP has a Momentum Score of A, indicating a favorable time to invest based on its momentum characteristics [6] Group 3: Earnings Estimates and Valuation - An upward trend in earnings estimate revisions has contributed to PAGP's Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), as increased analyst interest typically drives stock prices higher [7] - PAGP is currently trading at a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.08, suggesting it is undervalued at 8 cents for each dollar of sales, providing significant upside potential [7] Group 4: Additional Investment Opportunities - Besides PAGP, there are other stocks that meet the criteria of the 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen, presenting further investment opportunities [8] - Investors can explore over 45 Zacks Premium Screens tailored to different investing styles to identify potential winning stocks [9]
Strength Seen in Plains GP (PAGP): Can Its 6.1% Jump Turn into More Strength?
ZACKS· 2025-01-09 16:26
Group 1 - Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) shares increased by 6.1% to close at $19.93, following a notable trading volume compared to typical sessions, contrasting with a 1.6% loss over the past four weeks [1] - The surge in shares is attributed to sustained demand for Plains GP's midstream services, supported by a favorable crude price environment and expected rising demand for crude products in the U.S. [2] - Plains GP has announced three new acquisitions, enhancing its presence in key crude-producing regions such as the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Mid-Con basins, which is a significant growth driver for the company [2] Group 2 - The company is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.28 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, with revenues projected at $13.16 billion, also up 3.7% from the previous year [3] - The consensus EPS estimate for Plains GP has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating that stock price movements may not continue without trends in earnings estimate revisions [4] - Plains GP is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Production and Pipelines industry, with a current Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4]
Plains GP (PAGP) - 2024 Q3 - Quarterly Results
2024-11-08 13:28
Financial Performance - Reported net income attributable to Plains All American of $220 million for Q3 2024, an 8% increase from $203 million in Q3 2023[2] - Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains All American was $659 million for Q3 2024, remaining stable compared to $662 million in Q3 2023[2] - Revenues for the three months ended September 30, 2024, increased to $12,743 million, up 5.6% from $12,071 million in the same period of 2023[13] - Operating income rose to $347 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $234 million in the prior year, reflecting a 48.3% increase[13] - Net income for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $312 million, compared to $279 million for the same period in 2023, representing an increase of 11.8%[20] - For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, revenues were $37,671 million, up from $36,014 million in the same period of 2023, marking a growth of 4.6%[33] - Operating income for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $1,090 million, consistent with the previous year's figure of $1,085 million[33] - Net income attributable to PAGP for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $736 million, compared to $918 million for the same period in 2023, indicating a decrease of 19.8%[33] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Net cash provided by operating activities was $692 million in Q3 2024, compared to $85 million in Q3 2023[2] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for 2024 is anticipated to be approximately $1.45 billion, excluding changes in Assets & Liabilities[1] - Adjusted Free Cash Flow for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was $401 million, compared to a negative $386 million in the same period of 2023[23] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $640 million as of September 30, 2024, from $450 million at the end of 2023[14] - The company reported a net cash used in financing activities of $330 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, a decrease from $1,409 million in the same period of 2023, indicating improved cash management[16] Segment Performance - The Crude Oil Segment Adjusted EBITDA increased by 4% to $577 million in Q3 2024, driven by higher tariff volumes and contributions from acquisitions[3] - The NGL Segment Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 26% to $73 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to lower weighted average frac spreads[4] - Revenues for Crude Oil segment reached $12,444 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024, up from $11,934 million in the same period of 2023, indicating a year-over-year increase of approximately 4.3%[26] - Adjusted EBITDA for the crude oil segment was $1,707 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $1,600 million for the same period in 2023, reflecting a growth of 6.7%[29] Capital Expenditures and Investments - Total investment capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, were $232 million, up from $221 million in the same period of 2023, indicating an increase of approximately 5%[17] - Maintenance capital expenditures for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, were $135 million, compared to $107 million for the same period in 2023, indicating a 26.2% increase[27] - Maintenance capital expenditures for the three months ended September 30, 2024, were $69 million, compared to $60 million in the same period of 2023, indicating a rise of 15%[20] Debt and Leverage - Plains All American exited Q3 2024 with a leverage ratio of 3.0x, below the target range of 3.25x – 3.75x[1] - The company reported a total debt of $7,977 million as of September 30, 2024, up from $7,751 million at the end of 2023[14] - Long-term debt-to-total book capitalization ratio was 41% as of September 30, 2024, consistent with the ratio from December 31, 2023[14] Market and Economic Outlook - The company faces risks including fluctuations in crude oil prices, which could significantly impact its operational margins and commercial opportunities[36] - Future outlook includes potential impacts from economic conditions, supply chain issues, and regulatory changes affecting the energy sector[36] - The company is focused on maintaining its competitive position amidst market pressures and potential declines in crude oil demand[37] Credit Rating and Financial Stability - Moody's upgraded Plains All American's credit rating from Baa3 to Baa2 with a stable outlook, reflecting improved financial stability[1]
Plains GP (PAGP) - 2024 Q2 - Earnings Call Presentation
2024-08-02 17:04
2Q24 Earnings Call August 2, 2024 Forward-Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures Disclosure 2 This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including, in particular, statements about the performance, plans, strategies and objectives for future operations of Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. ("PAA") and Plains GP Holdings, L.P. ("PAGP"). These forward-looking statements are based on PAA's current views with respect to future events, based on what we believe to be reasonable assumptions. P ...
Plains GP (PAGP) - 2024 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-08-02 17:04
Plains GP Holdings, L.P. Class A Shares (NASDAQ:PAGP) Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call August 2, 2024 10:00 AM ET Company Participants Blake Fernandez - Vice President, Investment Relations Willie Chiang - Chairman and CEO Al Swanson - Executive Vice President and CFO Jeremy Goebel - Chief Commercial Officer Chris Chandler - Chief Operating Officer Conference Call Participants Tristan Richardson - Scotiabank Michael Blum - Wells Fargo Jeremy Tonet - JPMorgan Securities Manav Gupta - UBS Keith Stanley - Wolf ...
Plains GP (PAGP) - 2024 Q1 - Quarterly Report
2024-05-10 01:14
Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 ________________________________________________________________ Delaware 90-1005472 (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) (I.R.S. Employer Identification No.) 333 Clay Street, Suite 1600 FORM 10-Q ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ☑ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES E ...
Plains GP (PAGP) - 2024 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-05-03 16:45
Financial Data and Key Metrics - The company reported Q1 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $718 million, reaffirming its 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $2.625 billion to $2.725 billion [43][47] - The company expects to generate $1.55 billion of adjusted free cash flow in 2024, including $110 million from bolt-on acquisitions, with $1.15 billion allocated to common and preferred distributions [27] - The NGL segment remains highly hedged with frac spreads at approximately $0.65 per gallon for 2024 [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - The Permian long-haul portfolio has seen increased contract volumes and extended terms, with a weighted-average contract duration of approximately five years, extending through 2028 [14] - The company expects Permian production to grow by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day in 2024, with growth weighted towards the second half of the year [43][80] - The company acquired an additional 10% in the Saddlehorn Pipeline Company LLC and the Mid-Con Terminal asset for $110 million, expected to generate returns above the weighted-average cost of capital [42] Market Data and Key Metrics - The company noted that the movement of barrels to the West Coast could create opportunities for its Mid-Continent pipelines [1] - The company expects the Permian Basin to grow by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day, with growth disproportionately coming from the Delaware Basin [81] - The company highlighted potential gas constraints in 2026 but expects new pipelines to be sanctioned, mitigating long-term impacts [51][59] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company remains focused on capital discipline, generating free cash flow, and returning capital to investors, with a multiyear targeted annual distribution increase of $0.15 per unit [31][34] - The company has re-contracted its Permian long-haul capacity, offering better visibility and clarity around contractual support, with rates consistent with market levels [10][32] - The company is actively monitoring its hedging profile and is being opportunistic, with minimal forward hedging due to low liquidity [20][69] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting 2024 guidance, citing strong Q1 performance and bolt-on acquisitions, but remains cautiously optimistic about increasing guidance [38][39] - The company expects flat adjusted EBITDA in 2026 compared to 2024, driven by lower contracted rates offset by efficient growth investments [32][41] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining flexibility in long-haul contracts to capture higher margins from uncontracted capacity over time [32][78] Other Important Information - The company plans to self-fund $375 million in growth capital and $230 million in maintenance capital in 2024, consistent with February guidance [13] - The company noted that weather-related challenges in Q1 impacted Permian volumes, but recovery has been in-line with expectations, with no change to the full-year outlook [50][101] - The company sees opportunities in the Canadian market, particularly with the startup of TMX, which could lead to more tariff-based opportunities and less market-based opportunities [66][88] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why not increase 2024 guidance given strong Q1 performance and bolt-on acquisitions? - Management stated it is early in the year and remains confident in meeting the current guidance range, with a cautiously optimistic outlook [38][39] Question: Are contract extensions for Cactus II and Sunrise/Basin consistent with prior rates? - The extensions were associated with existing contract options, and rates were consistent with prior levels [15][40] Question: How is the company thinking about hedging strategy for 2025? - The company is actively monitoring its hedging profile but is not currently hedging forward due to low liquidity and backwardated markets [20][69] Question: What is the impact of the Permian re-contracting on long-term capital allocation? - The capital allocation strategy remains unchanged, with a focus on high-return bolt-on acquisitions and maintaining financial flexibility [75] Question: How is the company managing gas constraints in 2026? - The company expects new pipelines to be sanctioned, mitigating long-term impacts, and sees potential upside from oilier areas in low gas price environments [51][59] Question: What is the outlook for Permian production growth in 2024? - The company expects 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day of growth, with a back-half weighted ramp [43][80] Question: How is the startup of TMX impacting Canadian assets? - The company expects short-term blips but long-term benefits, with more tariff-based opportunities and potential for increased Canadian production [88][94]
Plains GP (PAGP) - 2024 Q1 - Quarterly Results
2024-05-03 12:20
Exhibit 99.1 Plains All American Reports First-Quarter 2024 Results Provides Update on Permian Long-Haul Contracting & Announces Bolt-on Acquisitions Houston, TX – May 3, 2024 – Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (Nasdaq: PAA) and Plains GP Holdings (Nasdaq: PAGP) today reported first-quarter 2024 results and reaffirmed full-year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Plains also provided updates on Permian long-haul contracting and announced two bolt-on acquisitions. First-Quarter Results "This marks a solid start ...
Plains GP Holdings' Reinvigorated 1099 Distribution Is Backed By Ample Cash Flow
Seeking Alpha· 2024-04-30 07:54
Energy Extraction On America's Plains Ramon Cliff/iStock Editorial via Getty Images It is not too late to initiate a position in Plains GP Holdings, L.P. Class A (NASDAQ:PAGP), despite doubling the return of the S&P 500 over the past year. This large, high-quality MLP has produced a trailing 12-month total return over 40% compared to the S&P 500's 22% as of the end of April. Future performance may not be as vigorous but, ample cash flow and management's commitment to future distribution growth, suggest PAGP ...
Plains GP (PAGP) - 2023 Q4 - Annual Report
2024-02-28 16:00
Financial Structure and Debt Management - As of December 31, 2023, PAA's long-term debt comprised approximately 99% of its publicly-traded senior notes[35] - PAA targets a leverage multiple averaging between 3.25x to 3.75x, with an average long-term debt-to-total capitalization ratio of approximately 50% or less[36] - The average total debt-to-total capitalization ratio is targeted to be approximately 60% or less[36] - Since 1998, the company has completed acquisitions totaling approximately $2.7 billion and asset sales exceeding $4.9 billion, reflecting a strategic focus on optimizing its asset portfolio[102] - The total investment capital for the year ending December 31, 2024, is projected to be approximately $465 million, with over half associated with the Permian JV[104] - Maintenance capital for 2024 is projected to be approximately $250 million, with $230 million net to the company's interest[104] Infrastructure and Operations - The Crude Oil segment includes 18,335 miles of active crude oil transportation pipelines and gathering systems, with a commercial storage capacity of 72 million barrels[47] - The average daily volumes transported on crude oil pipelines for the year ended December 31, 2023, totaled 8,460 thousand barrels[47] - The Permian Basin gathering pipelines represent approximately 3.8 million barrels per day of pipeline capacity, with 75% of this capacity located in the Delaware Basin[52] - PAA operates a condensate processing facility in the Eagle Ford area with an aggregate processing capacity of 120,000 barrels per day[47] - The Eagle Ford Pipeline has a total capacity of approximately 660,000 barrels per day, connecting production from the Permian and Eagle Ford areas to Corpus Christi, Texas refiners and terminals[60] - The Basin Pipeline, with an 87% ownership interest, serves as the primary route for transporting crude oil from the Permian Basin to Cushing, Oklahoma, with multiple origination locations[60] - The Cactus II Pipeline, operated by the company, has a capacity of approximately 670,000 barrels per day and connects directly to the Corpus Christi market[60] - The company's Cushing terminal has a commercial storage capacity of 27 million barrels and is a key delivery point for NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contracts[66] - The Capline Pipeline, in which the company holds a 54% interest, extends from Patoka, Illinois to St. James, Louisiana, supported by long-term shipper commitments[68] - The Diamond Pipeline, operated by the company, has a total capacity of approximately 200,000 barrels per day, extending from the Cushing Terminal to Valero's refinery in Memphis, Tennessee[69] - The NGL segment includes seven fractionation plants with an aggregate usable capacity of approximately 171,000 barrels per day[78] - The company operates a condensate processing facility in La Salle County, Texas, stabilizing condensate sourced from the Eagle Ford area[62] - The NGL storage facilities have a total capacity of approximately 24 million barrels[78] - The company owns and operates approximately 1,565 miles of active NGL transportation pipelines[78] - The Empress plants have a processing capacity of up to 5.7 Bcf of natural gas per day, typically operating in the 3.0 to 4.0 Bcf per day range, producing approximately 50,000 to 85,000 barrels per day of ethane and 30,000 to 50,000 barrels per day of NGL mix[83] - The Fort Saskatchewan facility has an inlet design capacity of 88,400 barrels per day and can produce approximately 44,400 barrels per day of propane, butane, and condensate[85] - The Sarnia fractionator can process an average of approximately 100,000 barrels per day of NGL products, with ownership stakes ranging from 61% to 85%[86] Market and Commodity Risks - In 2023, the WTI price fluctuated between approximately $67 and $94 per barrel, indicating significant commodity price volatility[87] - ExxonMobil accounted for 26%, 20%, and 15% of revenues for the years ended December 31, 2023, 2022, and 2021, respectively, highlighting customer concentration risk[94] - The company employs various financial risk management tools to mitigate risks associated with commodity price fluctuations and market volatility[90] - PAA's profitability is dependent on the volume of crude oil, natural gas, and NGL shipped, which can be negatively impacted by external factors[224] - Competition in the industry poses risks to PAA's profitability, with competitors potentially having significantly greater capital resources[227] - Fluctuations in supply and demand for crude oil and hydrocarbons can negatively affect PAA's operating results, influenced by global economic conditions and geopolitical events[231] - Excess global supply of crude oil may decrease prices, impacting profitability in areas serviced by PAA[232] - Demand fluctuations, such as refinery shutdowns, can reduce throughput on PAA's transportation systems, negatively affecting operating results[233] Regulatory and Compliance Issues - The company is subject to extensive legal requirements and regulations, which increase the overall cost of doing business and may affect profitability[105] - The company is required to report GHG emissions from certain facilities, with two facilities subject to federal GHG reporting requirements in 2023[124] - California has implemented a GHG cap-and-trade program, requiring finished fuels providers to purchase GHG emission credits[125] - Future regulations on GHG emissions could result in material increased compliance costs and reduced demand for petroleum-based fuels[126] - The U.S. Federal Water Pollution Control Act imposes strict controls on pollutant discharge into navigable waters, with penalties for non-compliance[128] - The U.S. Oil Pollution Act subjects facility owners to significant liability for oil spill containment and removal costs[129] - The Energy Policy Act of 2005 allows FERC to impose civil penalties for violations of the Interstate Commerce Act, with penalties for 2024 set at $16,170 per day per violation[138] - The Federal Trade Commission has regulations to prohibit market manipulation in the petroleum industry, with civil penalties up to $1.5 million per violation per day[147] - The Dodd-Frank Act expands the CFTC's authority to prohibit market manipulation, with penalties up to $1.23 million or triple the monetary gain for each violation[147] - Compliance with new cybersecurity directives from the Transportation Security Administration may significantly impact operations[145] - Canadian pipeline assets are regulated by the CER and provincial regulators, which can impose conditions on rates and terms of service[140] Workforce and Employee Management - As of December 31, 2023, the company employed approximately 4,200 people in North America, with about 3,000 in the U.S. and 1,200 in Canada[152] - Approximately 69% of the workforce, or about 2,900 employees, are field employees, including around 800 in the trucking division[152] - The company has a commitment to diversity, with approximately 21% of the overall workforce being female and under-represented groups comprising about 35% of the U.S. workforce[154] - The company has established a Health, Safety, Environmental and Sustainability (HSES) Committee to enhance its focus on safety and sustainability matters[153] - The company offers comprehensive benefits, including health insurance, retirement savings plans, and mental health resources, to attract and retain employees[157] - The company prioritizes employee training and leadership development, providing programs in various operational and management areas[156] - The company has a performance-based annual bonus program that includes components tied to safety and environmental performance targets[153] Shareholder and Tax Considerations - Distributions on Class A shares will be treated as dividends for U.S. federal income tax purposes to the extent paid from current or accumulated earnings and profits[169] - Non-U.S. holders may be subject to a 30% U.S. withholding tax on distributions unless an applicable income tax treaty provides for a lower rate[170] - Non-U.S. holders must provide IRS Form W-8BEN or W-8BEN-E to claim reduced withholding tax rates[171] - Gain on the sale of Class A shares by non-U.S. holders may be subject to U.S. federal income tax at a rate of 30% if certain conditions are met[172] - A corporation is considered a U.S. real property holding corporation (USRPHC) if the fair market value of its U.S. real property interests equals or exceeds 50% of its worldwide real property interests[174] - Backup withholding will not apply if the non-U.S. holder certifies its non-U.S. status using IRS Form W-8BEN or W-8BEN-E[176] - Payments from the sale of Class A shares through a U.S. broker may be subject to information reporting and backup withholding unless an exemption is established[177] - FATCA imposes a 30% withholding tax on dividends paid to foreign financial institutions or non-financial foreign entities unless certain conditions are met[180] - The partnership structure carries inherent risks, including cash flow dependency on PAA's ability to make distributions[185] - PAA's cash flow is entirely dependent on its ability to make cash distributions to AAP, which currently consists exclusively of cash distributions from PAA[191] - At December 31, 2023, AAP owned approximately 84% limited partner interest in AAP, which owned approximately 232.7 million PAA common units[193] - Cash distributions from PAA may fluctuate based on its performance, and may occur during periods of losses or not occur during periods of profits[193] - PAA's distributions to AAP may be limited by various factors, including increased expenses, capital requirements, and restrictions in credit facilities[192][196] - The partnership structure carries inherent risks, including tax risks and potential changes in tax treatment that could reduce cash available for distribution[190] - PAA's ability to comply with credit facility restrictions may be affected by external economic conditions, which could limit distributions to AAP[196] - The issuance of additional Class A shares or other equity securities could dilute existing shareholders' ownership and reduce cash available for distribution[201] - If PAA's general partner is removed, AAP may lose its ability to manage and control PAA, impacting its investment[202] - The market price of Class A shares may be volatile, influenced by factors unrelated to operating performance[208] - Cash distributions are not guaranteed and may fluctuate with PAA's performance and the establishment of financial reserves[190] - As of December 31, 2023, the Legacy Owners held approximately 16% of the combined voting power of Class A and Class B shares[212] - The gross deferred tax asset was approximately $1.3 billion as of December 31, 2023, with no valuation allowance required[213] - Future sales of Class A shares could reduce the share price and may have a dilutive effect on shareholders[210] Strategic Partnerships and Joint Ventures - The company is engaged in over 25 joint venture arrangements, which provide strategic alignment and volume commitments, enhancing operational efficiency[100]