Core Insights - PagerDuty, Inc. shares dropped over 24% following the release of Q3 fiscal 2026 results, which exceeded earnings forecasts but fell short of revenue expectations, alongside a reduction in full-year sales outlook [1] Financial Performance - The company reported quarterly revenue of $124.5 million, representing a 4.7% year-over-year increase but below the consensus estimate of $125.41 million [2] - Adjusted EPS was $0.33, surpassing the expected $0.25, and the company achieved GAAP profitability for the second consecutive quarter with an operating income of $8.1 million [2] Guidance and Outlook - Full-year revenue guidance was revised down to $490 million to $492 million from a previous range of $493 million to $497 million, which is also below the consensus of $498 million [3] - The adjusted EPS forecast was raised to $1.11 to $1.12, exceeding expectations of $1.02 [3] - For Q4, PagerDuty anticipates revenue between $122 million and $124 million and adjusted EPS of $0.24 to $0.25 [4] Key Metrics - Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased by 3% to $497 million [3] - The number of customers with over $100,000 in ARR grew by 5% to 867 [3] - Dollar-based net retention rate decreased to 100% from 107% a year prior [3]

Core Viewpoint - PagerDuty's stock experienced a significant decline of 25.7% following the release of its mixed Q3 earnings report, despite exceeding earnings expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance - PagerDuty reported an adjusted earnings per share of $0.33, surpassing analysts' expectations of $0.24, while sales were slightly below expectations at $124.5 million compared to the anticipated $124.9 million [2][3]. - Year-over-year sales growth was recorded at 5%, and the company achieved its second consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability, with an operating profit margin of 6.5% and GAAP earnings of $1.69 per share [3]. - The actual free cash flow for the quarter was $20.9 million, significantly lower than the reported net income of $161.6 million [4]. Market Metrics - PagerDuty's current market capitalization stands at approximately $1 billion, with a price-to-free cash flow ratio of 8.8x based on a free cash flow of $117.6 million for the year [6]. - The stock is currently trading within a 52-week range of $11.13 to $21.98, with a current price of $11.47 after a decline of $3.71 [5][6]. Investment Outlook - Despite the recent sell-off, the stock is viewed as a potential small-cap buy, especially considering a modest projected growth rate of 9% [7].

Core Insights - PagerDuty reported mixed third-quarter financial results, with earnings per share (EPS) of 33 cents beating the analyst consensus estimate of 25 cents, but quarterly sales of $124.545 million missing the estimate of $125.034 million [1] - The company issued fourth-quarter guidance for adjusted EPS of 24 to 25 cents, aligning with market estimates, but projected sales of $122 million to $124 million, below the estimate of $127.295 million [2] - PagerDuty's CEO highlighted the company's strong position with product leadership, a solid balance sheet, and robust free cash flow, despite a 25.5% drop in share price to $11.31 following the earnings announcement [3] Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings were reported at 33 cents per share, exceeding the consensus estimate of 25 cents [1] - Quarterly sales reached $124.545 million, falling short of the analyst consensus estimate of $125.034 million [1] - Fourth-quarter adjusted EPS guidance is set at 24 to 25 cents, with sales projections between $122 million and $124 million, both below market expectations [2] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating but lowered the price target from $18 to $17 [6] - Morgan Stanley kept an Equal-Weight rating while reducing the price target from $17 to $16 [6] - TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating but slashed the price target from $22 to $20 [6]

Upgrades - Argus upgraded Herbalife (HLF) to Buy from Hold, citing a Q3 earnings beat and raising FY25 EPS view by $0.03 to $2.15 and FY26 view by $0.04 to $2.64 [2] - JPMorgan upgraded Atmus Filtration (ATMU) to Overweight from Neutral with a price target increase to $60 from $53, following the proposed acquisition of Koch Filter [2] - Morgan Stanley upgraded Amentum (AMTM) to Equal Weight from Underweight, raising the price target to $35 from $20, indicating a more balanced risk/reward at current share levels [3] - Northland upgraded NetApp (NTAP) to Outperform from Market Perform, increasing the price target to $137 from $120, after reporting revenue growth of 4% year-over-year in fiscal Q2 and guidance for 5% growth in the second half of FY26 [3] - Deutsche Bank upgraded Autodesk (ADSK) to Buy from Hold, raising the price target to $375 from $345, following "very healthy" Q3 results described as one of the "cleanest" quarterly prints in recent years [4] Downgrades - Macquarie downgraded Nio (NIO) to Neutral from Outperform, lowering the price target to $5.30 from $6.70, after issuing "weak" Q4 volume guidance of 122,500 units at the midpoint [5] - Craig-Hallum downgraded PagerDuty (PD) to Hold from Buy, reducing the price target to $15 from $20, noting a fundamental change in end markets negatively affecting PagerDuty [5] - UBS downgraded Biohaven (BHVN) to Neutral from Buy, with a price target decrease to $11 from $26, citing multiple R&D and regulatory setbacks impacting confidence in its pipeline [5] - Bernstein downgraded Ambev (ABEV) to Market Perform from Outperform, setting a price target of $2.88, attributing the downgrade to valuation concerns as shares rose 16% year-to-date [5] - RBC Capital downgraded Morgan Stanley Direct Lending (MSDL) to Sector Perform from Outperform, lowering the price target to $18 from $19, suggesting lower net interest income return on equity expectations for 2026 [5]

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Core Insights - PagerDuty reported quarterly earnings of $0.33 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.24 per share, and showing an increase from $0.25 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +37.50% [1] - The company posted revenues of $124.55 million for the quarter ended October 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.32%, but up from $118.95 million year-over-year [2] - PagerDuty has surpassed consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last quarters, while it has topped consensus revenue estimates twice during the same period [2] Future Outlook - The immediate price movement of PagerDuty's stock will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the company's earnings outlook [3][4] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.23 on revenues of $127.23 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.02 on revenues of $495.59 million [7] - The Zacks Rank for PagerDuty is currently 3 (Hold), indicating that the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Software industry, to which PagerDuty belongs, is currently ranked in the top 31% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Revenue and Customer Growth - Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased to $497.1 million as of October 31, 2025, up from $483.0 million in 2024, representing a growth of 2.3%[134] - The total number of customers reached 15,398 as of October 31, 2025, compared to 15,050 in 2024, indicating an increase of 2.3%[135] - Customers with greater than $100,000 in ARR grew to 867 in 2025 from 825 in 2024, reflecting a growth of 5.1%[135] - Revenue for the three months ended October 31, 2025, was $124.5 million, a 4.7% increase from $118.9 million in the same period of 2024[141] - Revenue for the nine months ended October 31, 2025, was $367,761, an increase of $21,708, or 6.3%, compared to $346,053 in 2024[161] Profitability and Income - Gross profit for the three months ended October 31, 2025, was $106.2 million, with a gross margin of 85.3%, up from 83.0% in 2024[138] - Net income attributable to PagerDuty, Inc. common stockholders was $159.6 million for the three months ended October 31, 2025, compared to a net loss of $6.6 million in 2024[138] - Gross profit margin improved from 82.8% in 2024 to 84.6% in 2025, with gross profit increasing to $311,219[160] - Net income attributable to PagerDuty, Inc. increased to $163,999 in 2025, compared to a net loss of $33,975 in 2024[160] - For the three months ended October 31, 2025, non-GAAP net income attributable to PagerDuty, Inc. common stockholders was $31,217,000, compared to $23,721,000 for the same period in 2024, representing a 31.5% increase[186] Operating Expenses - Operating expenses decreased to $98.1 million for the three months ended October 31, 2025, from $109.0 million in 2024, a reduction of 10.5%[138] - Total operating expenses decreased by $10,862, or 10.0%, from $108,971 in 2024 to $98,109 in 2025[146] - Research and development expenses decreased by $4,849, or 14.2%, from $34,267 in 2024 to $29,418 in 2025[146] - Sales and marketing expenses decreased by $4,950, or 10.0%, from $49,272 in 2024 to $44,322 in 2025[146] - General and administrative expenses decreased by $1,063, or 4.2%, from $25,432 in 2024 to $24,369 in 2025[146] Cash Flow and Financial Position - Free cash flow for the three months ended October 31, 2025, was $20,929,000, up from $19,443,000 in the same period of 2024, indicating a 7.6% increase[188] - As of October 31, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents totaling $547.8 million, which is expected to support working capital and capital expenditure requirements for at least the next 12 months[189] - Net cash provided by operating activities for the nine months ended October 31, 2025, was $89,447,000, an increase of $2,958,000 from $86,489,000 in 2024[196] - Net cash used in financing activities decreased to $105,386,000 for the nine months ended October 31, 2025, compared to $113,323,000 in 2024, reflecting a reduction in stock repurchases[199] Debt and Obligations - Total debt obligations as of October 31, 2025, amounted to $395.1 million, all of which is long-term[194] - The company had $1.0 million of irrevocable standby letters of credit outstanding as of October 31, 2025, primarily used as security deposits for leased spaces[201] Tax and Valuation - The company released $154.2 million of its valuation allowance as a discrete tax benefit during the three months ended October 31, 2025[159] - The company maintains a valuation allowance of $0.8 million against certain deferred tax assets due to realizability uncertainty[170] - The projected non-GAAP tax rate for fiscal 2026 is set at 22% to provide consistency across interim reporting periods[180] Retention and Customer Focus - The dollar-based net retention rate was 100% for the last 12 months ended October 31, 2025, down from 107% in 2024[137] - The company continues to focus on expanding its enterprise customer base, which constitutes the majority of its revenue[127]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - PagerDuty reported revenue of $125 million for Q3, representing a 5% year-over-year increase [3][20] - Non-GAAP operating margin was 29%, exceeding guidance and expanding 750 basis points year-over-year [3][22] - GAAP net income for Q3 was $160 million, including a one-time tax benefit of $154 million [20] - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached $497 million, reflecting a 3% year-over-year growth [3][20] - Gross margin was 87%, above the target range of 84%-86% [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - New and expansion bookings were consistent with the first half of the year, but impacted by customers rightsizing seat licenses [3][5] - Customer retention efforts have stabilized, but seat license compression remains a significant challenge in large enterprises [5][6] - The number of customers spending over $100,000 annually increased by 5% year-over-year to 867 [21][12] - Total paid customers grew to 15,398, a 2% year-over-year increase [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue increased by 7% year-over-year, contributing 29% of total revenue [20] - The company added 284 net new customers year-to-date, nearly four times the total in FY 2025 [10][11] - Total paid and free customers on the platform grew to over 34,000, an increase of approximately 13% compared to Q3 of last year [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on three objectives: expanding operating and free cash flow margins, extending product advantage in AI operations, and scaling go-to-market transformation [3][4] - PagerDuty aims to transition from a single-year seat-based license model to a multi-year platform usage model [10] - The company is investing in operational efficiency and product innovation to maintain leadership in digital and AI operations [4][7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges in customer retention due to budget caution and organizational changes [30][34] - The company is confident in long-term growth prospects, citing strong demand for its platform and improvements in customer usage metrics [34][56] - Management expects continued pressure on dollar-based net retention but is implementing changes to improve customer engagement and retention [24][45] Other Important Information - Howard Wilson, CFO, announced plans to retire in the next financial year after nine years with the company [16][17] - The company repurchased 2.4 million shares under its $200 million repurchase plan, with $162 million remaining available [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in dollar-based net retention and customer spending - Management noted that while logo retention improved, larger downgrades were tied to significant reorganizations, making it difficult to anticipate changes [32][33] Question: Sales maturity indicators and productivity - Management emphasized the importance of customer feedback and engagement, focusing on proactive support and understanding customer needs [37][39] Question: Opportunities to offer usage-based pricing to existing accounts - Management confirmed that longer-term agreements allow for proactive engagement with customers regarding new pricing and services [42][43] Question: Guidance assumptions regarding dollar-based churn - Management indicated that guidance reflects current visibility around renewals, expecting some seat-based pressure to continue [45] Question: Impact of reorganizations on customer spending - Management acknowledged that while some customers are downsizing, they are also seeking to improve operational resilience, leading to potential growth opportunities [65][66] Question: Momentum with new logo acquisitions - Management reported good new logo acquisition across all segments, with promising growth in both digital-first and go-to-market environments [96][97]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - PagerDuty reported revenue of $125 million for Q3, representing a 5% year-over-year increase [3][20] - Non-GAAP operating margin was 29%, exceeding guidance and expanding by 750 basis points compared to the previous year [3][22] - GAAP net income for Q3 was $160 million, which included a one-time income tax benefit of $154 million [20] - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached $497 million, reflecting a 3% year-over-year growth [3][20] - Gross margin was 87%, above the target range of 84%-86% [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - New and expansion bookings were consistent with the first half of the year, but were offset by customers rightsizing seat licenses due to budget caution [3][5] - The number of customers spending over $100,000 annually increased by 5% year-over-year, totaling 867 customers [21][12] - Total paid customers grew to 15,398, a 2% increase year-over-year [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue increased by 7% year-over-year, contributing 29% of total revenue [20] - Total paid and free customers on the platform grew to over 34,000, an increase of approximately 13% compared to Q3 of the previous year [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on three objectives: expanding operating and free cash flow margins, extending product advantage in AI operations, and scaling go-to-market transformation [3][4] - PagerDuty is transitioning from a traditional single-year seat-based license model to a multi-year platform usage model [10] - The company aims to build long-term shareholder value by enhancing operational efficiency and product innovation [3][4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges with seat license compression in large enterprises due to budget caution and rightsizing [5][21] - The company is optimistic about long-term growth, citing strong demand for its platform and improvements in customer usage metrics [34][56] - Management expects continued pressure on dollar-based net retention but is implementing changes to improve customer engagement and retention [24][45] Other Important Information - Howard Wilson, the CFO, announced plans to retire in the next financial year after nine years with the company [16][17] - The company repurchased 2.4 million shares under its $200 million repurchase plan, with $162 million remaining available for repurchase [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in dollar-based net retention and customer spending - Management noted that while logo retention improved, larger downgrades were tied to significant reorganizations within customer companies [32][33] Question: Sales organization maturity and productivity indicators - Management emphasized the importance of customer feedback and engagement in assessing sales productivity and effectiveness [37][39] Question: Opportunities to re-engage accounts before renewals - Management confirmed that longer-term agreements allow for proactive engagement with customers regarding new pricing and services [42][43] Question: Guidance assumptions for Q4 and dollar-based churn - Management indicated that guidance for Q4 reflects current visibility around renewals and expects some seat-based pressure to continue [45][76] Question: Impact of reorganizations on customer spending - Management acknowledged that while some customers are downsizing, they are also seeking to improve operational resilience, leading to potential growth opportunities [65][66] Question: Performance of the agentic suite and competitive differentiation - Management reported positive responses to the agentic suite, highlighting its unique integration capabilities and the potential for increased usage [88][90]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - PagerDuty reported Q3 revenue of $125 million, a 5% year-over-year increase [3][19] - Non-GAAP operating margin reached 29%, expanding 750 basis points from the previous year [3] - GAAP net income for Q3 was $160 million, including a one-time tax benefit of $154 million [19] - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew 3% year-over-year to $497 million [3][19] - Gross margin was 87%, exceeding the target range of 84%-86% [20][21] - Cash from operations was $25 million, representing 20% of revenue [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - New and expansion bookings were consistent with the first half of the year, but impacted by customers rightsizing seat licenses [3][5] - Customer retention and growth remain a top priority, with efforts to increase average transaction size through new usage-based products [5][6] - The number of customers spending over $100,000 annually increased by 5% year-over-year to 867 [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue increased by 7% year-over-year, contributing 29% of total revenue [19] - Total paid customers grew to 15,398, a 2% year-over-year increase [20] - Paid and free customers on the platform grew to over 34,000, an increase of approximately 13% compared to the previous year [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on three objectives: expanding operating and free cash flow margins, extending product advantage in AI operations, and scaling go-to-market transformation [3][4] - PagerDuty aims to transition from a single-year seat-based license model to a multi-year platform usage model [11] - The company is investing in operational efficiency and product innovation to maintain leadership in digital and AI operations [4][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges with seat license compression due to budget caution among large enterprises [5][20] - There is confidence in long-term growth despite current pressures, with a focus on proactive customer engagement and flexible pricing [29][40] - The company expects to be GAAP profitable for the full fiscal year [19][24] Other Important Information - Howard Wilson, CFO, announced plans to retire in the next financial year after nine years with the company [17][18] - The company has made significant investments in AI and operational resilience, positioning itself as a leader in the market [10][14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Trends in dollar-based net retention (DBNR) and gross churn - Management noted that while DBNR was 100%, it was negatively impacted by lower gross retention and expects pressure to continue in Q4 [20][28] Question: Evaluation of current customer spending and organizational changes - Management indicated that improvements in logo retention were observed, but larger downgrades were tied to significant reorganizations [28][30] Question: Proactive measures for customer renewals - The company is taking a multi-quarter view on renewal planning and offering flexible pricing to mitigate risks [29][39] Question: Impact of AI on customer investments and headcount - Management observed a focus on improving operating margins and reducing costs, with automation becoming more integrated into the platform [44] Question: Guidance for Q4 and renewal expectations - The guidance for Q4 reflects visibility around renewals, with expectations for stabilization in customer downgrades [48][49] Question: Performance of the agentic suite and competitive differentiation - Positive responses to the agentic suite were noted, with expectations for increased usage and adoption as customers engage with the new offerings [52][55]