Core Viewpoint - PulteGroup Inc. is expected to report a decline in earnings and revenues for the second quarter of 2025, primarily due to ongoing affordability challenges in the housing market and high mortgage rates impacting homebuyers [1][2][3]. Revenue Summary - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 2025 EPS has decreased to $2.93, reflecting an 18.2% decline from the previous year's EPS of $3.58 [2]. - Revenue is projected at $4.39 billion, indicating a 4.5% year-over-year decline [2]. - Home closings are expected to be between 7,400 and 7,800 units, down from 8,097 units a year ago, with a predicted decline of 6.6% year over year to 7,561 units [3][4]. Segment Performance - Homebuilding revenues, which contributed 97.4% to total revenues in Q1 2025, are expected to decrease by 4.3% year over year to $4.3 billion due to lower home closings [4]. - Financial services revenues, contributing 2.6% to total revenues in Q1, are expected to increase by 1.4% year over year to $113.2 million [4]. Pricing and Margins - The average selling price (ASP) for homes is expected to rise between $560,000 and $570,000, compared to $549,000 a year ago, with a predicted increase of 2.4% year over year to $562,200 [5][6]. - Gross margin is anticipated to shrink to 26.7% from 29.9% last year, impacted by higher buyer incentives and cost pressures [6][7]. Orders and Backlogs - Net new orders are expected to increase by 2.1% year over year to 7,811 units, while total backlog is projected to decline by 10.8% to 11,585 units, with the total backlog value decreasing by 7.3% year over year to $7.51 billion [8]. Earnings Prediction - The model indicates that PulteGroup may not achieve an earnings beat this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -1.27% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [9].

Wall Street analysts expect PulteGroup (PHM) to post quarterly earnings of $2.93 per share in its upcoming report, which indicates a year-over-year decline of 18.2%. Revenues are expected to be $4.39 billion, down 4.5% from the year-ago quarter.Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged. This demonstrates the covering analysts' collective reassessment of their initial projections during this period.Prior to a company's earnings announcement, it is crucial to con ...

Group 1: Company Performance - PulteGroup's stock increased by 1.19% to $109.29, outperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.32% [1] - Over the past month, PulteGroup shares have risen by 9.4%, while the Construction sector and S&P 500 gained 4.6% and 4.51% respectively [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings Disclosure - PulteGroup is set to release its earnings report on July 22, 2025, with an expected EPS of $2.94, reflecting a 17.88% decline from the previous year [2] - The consensus estimate for revenue is $4.39 billion, indicating a 4.52% decrease compared to the same quarter last year [2] Group 3: Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $11.48 per share and revenue at $17.24 billion, showing declines of 21.85% and 3.96% respectively from the previous year [3] Group 4: Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for PulteGroup reflect short-term business trends, with upward revisions indicating positive sentiment towards the company's operations [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which includes estimate changes, currently ranks PulteGroup at 4 (Sell), with a 0.01% downward shift in the consensus EPS estimate over the past month [6] Group 5: Valuation Metrics - PulteGroup has a Forward P/E ratio of 9.41, which aligns with the industry average [7] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.31, significantly lower than the industry average PEG ratio of 2.23 [7] Group 6: Industry Context - The Building Products - Home Builders industry is ranked 177 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the bottom 29% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Group 1 - PulteGroup's stock closed at $98.54, reflecting a +0.85% increase, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.4% [1] - Over the past month, PulteGroup's shares have decreased by 4.75%, underperforming the Construction sector's increase of 7.66% and the S&P 500's increase of 6.69% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings report for PulteGroup is scheduled for July 22, 2025, with an expected EPS of $2.94, indicating a 17.88% decline year-over-year [2] - Revenue is projected to be $4.39 billion, reflecting a 4.52% decrease compared to the same quarter last year [2] Group 3 - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $11.48 per share and revenue at $17.24 billion, showing declines of -21.85% and -3.95% respectively from the previous year [3] Group 4 - Recent changes in analyst estimates for PulteGroup indicate the dynamic nature of near-term business trends, with upward revisions suggesting positive sentiment towards the company's operations [4] Group 5 - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks PulteGroup at 4 (Sell), with the consensus EPS estimate having decreased by 0.72% over the past month [6] Group 6 - PulteGroup has a Forward P/E ratio of 8.51, which is lower than the industry's average Forward P/E of 9.27, and a PEG ratio of 0.28 compared to the industry average of 1.71 [7] Group 7 - The Building Products - Home Builders industry, which includes PulteGroup, ranks in the bottom 9% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank, indicating weaker performance compared to higher-ranked industries [8]

Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations - PulteGroup has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.81, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy, based on 16 brokerage firms' recommendations [2] - Out of the 16 recommendations, nine are Strong Buy and one is Buy, accounting for 56.3% and 6.3% of all recommendations respectively [2] Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Studies indicate that brokerage recommendations have limited success in guiding investors towards stocks with the best price increase potential [5] - Analysts from brokerage firms tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings, issuing five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" [6][10] - The interests of brokerage firms may not align with those of retail investors, leading to potential misguidance regarding stock price movements [7] Group 3: Zacks Rank vs. ABR - Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock rating tool that categorizes stocks into five groups based on earnings estimate revisions, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [8][11] - Unlike ABR, which is based solely on brokerage recommendations, Zacks Rank is a quantitative model that reflects timely earnings estimate revisions [9][12] Group 4: Current Earnings Estimates for PulteGroup - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PulteGroup has declined by 6.9% over the past month to $11.48, indicating growing pessimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [13] - This decline in consensus estimates has resulted in a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) for PulteGroup, suggesting caution despite the Buy-equivalent ABR [14]

Financial Performance - Home sale revenues for Q1 2025 decreased by 2% to $3,749,269 compared to $3,819,586 in Q1 2024, primarily due to a 7% decrease in closings[98]. - Net new orders in units decreased by 7% to 7,765 in Q1 2025, while net new order dollars decreased by 5% to $4,477,827 compared to the prior year period[105]. - Gross margin from home sales decreased to 27.5% in Q1 2025 from 29.6% in Q1 2024, attributed to higher land acquisition costs and increased sales incentives[101]. - Selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) increased by 10% to $393,337 in Q1 2025, representing 10.5% of home sale revenues compared to 9.4% in Q1 2024[103]. - The backlog at March 31, 2025, decreased by 12% to $7,223,276 compared to $8,198,788 at March 31, 2024, with units in backlog down 16%[105]. - Revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2025, were $3,721,729, a decrease of 2.0% compared to $3,797,943 in the same period of 2024[159]. - Cost of revenues increased to $2,704,104, up 1.2% from $2,672,700 in the prior year[159]. - Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose to $374,703, reflecting a 6.0% increase from $353,472 in 2024[159]. - Income before income taxes decreased to $632,233, down 22.3% from $814,115 in the previous year[159]. Market Segments Performance - Homebuilding revenues for the Northeast segment increased by 25% to $249,733, driven by a 19% increase in closings and a 5% increase in average selling price[116]. - The Southeast segment experienced an 11% decrease in revenues to $638,729, with a 17% decrease in closings partially offset by an 8% increase in average selling price[117]. - Florida segment revenues decreased by 14% to $980,539, primarily due to a 14% decrease in closings[118]. - Midwest segment revenues increased by 10% to $582,442, supported by a 10% increase in closings[119]. - Texas segment revenues decreased by 21% to $412,413, with a 22% decrease in closings[120]. - West segment revenues increased by 26% to $888,797, due to a 13% increase in closings and a 12% increase in average selling price[122]. Cash and Debt Management - As of March 31, 2025, the company had unrestricted cash and equivalents of $1.2 billion and a debt-to-total capitalization ratio of 11.7%[129]. - The company expects principal demand for funds over the next 12 months to be for land acquisition and development, house construction, repayment of unsecured senior notes due in March 2026, and operating expenses[130]. - As of March 31, 2025, the company had $1.6 billion of unsecured senior notes outstanding, with $251.9 million scheduled to mature in March 2026[132]. - The company maintains a revolving credit facility with a maximum borrowing capacity of $1.3 billion, which can be increased to $1.8 billion under certain conditions[134]. - At March 31, 2025, the company had $942.3 million of remaining capacity under the revolving credit facility and no borrowings outstanding[135]. - The company had net cash used in financing activities of $472.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, primarily due to share repurchases and cash dividends[147]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to increase its quarterly dividend by 10% from $0.20 to $0.22 per share, effective January 2025, and has authorized an additional $1.5 billion for share repurchases[96]. - The company declared cash dividends totaling $44.7 million and repurchased 2.8 million shares for $300.0 million in the three months ended March 31, 2025[138]. Risks and Future Outlook - The company continues to face pressure from rising land acquisition and development costs, which may impact future gross margins[94]. - The company faces risks including interest rate changes, supply shortages, and competition in the homebuilding industry[166][168]. - Forward-looking statements indicate potential impacts from economic changes and regulatory conditions affecting the housing market[165].

Group 1: ETF Performance and Market Reaction - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) has increased by 3.3%, trading at $90.39, largely driven by PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) after its strong first-quarter earnings and revenue report [1] - PulteGroup's stock (PHM) rose by 8.1% to $100.68, marking its best single-session gain since January 2023, although it has been on a downward trend since reaching an all-time high of $149.47 on October 21 [2] Group 2: Options Trading Activity - There is a significant increase in put options trading for PulteGroup, with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.90, indicating a strong appetite for long puts, ranking in the 78th percentile of its annual range [4] - The stock's Schaeffer's open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.47 is in the 81st percentile, suggesting that short-term option traders are currently more put-biased than usual [4] - Notable attention is being given to a January 2026 95-strike LEAPS trade, with over 2,300 puts changing hands, which is double the average intraday volume [5]

Core Insights - PulteGroup Inc. reported better-than-expected first-quarter 2024 results, with adjusted earnings of $2.57 per share and total revenues of $3.89 billion, surpassing Zacks Consensus Estimates [1][4] - The company's performance is attributed to its diversified operations and strategic focus on balancing sales price and pace to maintain strong returns [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share of $2.57 exceeded the consensus estimate of $2.47 by 4.1%, although it decreased from $2.87 in the year-ago quarter [4] - Total revenues of $3.89 billion surpassed the consensus mark of $3.86 billion but decreased 1.4% from $3.95 billion a year ago [4] - Homebuilding segment revenues fell 1.4% year over year to $3.8 billion, while home sale revenues decreased 1.8% to $3.75 billion [5] - The number of homes closed dropped 7% to 6,583 units, with an average selling price (ASP) of $570,000, up 6% year over year [6] Market Dynamics - Declining interest rates have stimulated buyer interest, but high home prices and stretched monthly payments continue to challenge affordability [2] - Net new home orders declined 7.3% year over year to 7,765 units, with the value of new orders down 4.7% to $4.48 billion, largely due to affordability pressures [7] - The backlog of orders decreased to 11,335 units from 13,430 units a year ago, with potential housing revenues from the backlog down to $7.22 billion [8] Segment Analysis - Financial Services segment revenues dropped 1.7% year over year to $90.8 million, with pretax income declining to $36 million from $41 million due to lower closing volumes [9] - Home sales gross margin decreased by 210 basis points to 27.5%, while SG&A expenses as a percentage of home sales revenues increased by 110 basis points to 10.5% [8] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - At the end of the first quarter, cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash were $1.28 billion, down from $1.65 billion at the end of 2024 [10] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $134.2 million, down from $239.8 million in the prior-year period [10] - The company repurchased 2.8 million common shares for $300 million at an average price of $108.03 per share [11]

Q1 2025 Operating & Financial Results April 22, 2025 Forward-looking statements This presentation includes "forward-looking statements." These statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause our actual results, performance, prospects or opportunities, as well as those of the markets we serve or intend to serve, to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these statements. You can identify these statements by the fact that they do not relate to m ...

PulteGroup (PHM) Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 22, 2025 08:30 AM ET Company Participants James Zeumer - Vice President of Investor Relations & Corporate CommunicationsRyan Marshall - President and CEOJames Ossowski - EVP & CFOStephen Kim - Senior Managing DirectorMichael Rehaut - Executive DirectorMike Dahl - Managing Director - Equity ResearchCarl Reichardt - Managing Director - Equity ResearchAlan Ratner - Managing Director Conference Call Participants John Lovallo - AnalystSam Reid - AnalystMatthew Bouley ...