Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) has been on a downward spiral lately with significant selling pressure. After declining 16.4% over the past four weeks, the stock looks well positioned for a trend reversal as it is now in oversold territory and there is strong agreement among Wall Street analysts that the company will report better earnings than they predicted earlier.We use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This i ...

Core Insights - BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a stronger earnings outlook compared to Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS), which has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - Value investors utilize various metrics to identify undervalued companies, including P/E ratio, P/S ratio, earnings yield, and cash flow per share [4] Valuation Metrics - BMRN has a forward P/E ratio of 10.82, significantly lower than TARS's forward P/E of 71.71, suggesting BMRN is more attractively priced [5] - The PEG ratio for BMRN is 0.54, while TARS has a PEG ratio of 1.26, indicating BMRN's expected earnings growth is more favorable [5] - BMRN's P/B ratio stands at 1.83, compared to TARS's P/B of 9.57, further highlighting BMRN's relative valuation strength [6] Value Grades - BMRN holds a Value grade of A, while TARS has a Value grade of D, indicating BMRN is viewed as the superior value investment based on earnings outlook and valuation metrics [6]

Core Insights - Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) has been highlighted as a Buy due to the rapid commercialization of its product Xdemvy following FDA approval in July 2023, leading to a significant appreciation in stock value [1] Company Overview - Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is focused on the biotechnology sector, particularly in the development and commercialization of innovative therapies [1] - The company has successfully transitioned from a startup to a significant player in the pharmaceutical industry, with major investments received during its early stages [1] Product Development - Xdemvy received FDA approval in July 2023, which has catalyzed its commercialization efforts [1] - The rapid uptake of Xdemvy in the market is a key driver for Tarsus Pharmaceuticals' stock performance [1] Market Performance - Following the FDA approval of Xdemvy, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals' stock has appreciated significantly, indicating positive market reception and investor confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) is highlighted as a Buy due to the rapid commercialization of its product Xdemvy following FDA approval in July 2023, leading to a significant appreciation in stock value since the recommendation [1]. Company Background - Tarsus Pharmaceuticals was founded by an individual with a Ph.D. in organic synthesis from Stanford University and has experience working for major pharmaceutical companies and biotech startups [1]. Stock Performance - The stock of Tarsus Pharmaceuticals has appreciated significantly since the recommendation was made in March 2023, indicating positive market reception and investor confidence in the company's future prospects [1].

Summary of Tarsus Pharmaceuticals FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGS:TARS) - **Core Product**: XDEMVY for Demodex blepharitis - **Pipeline**: Includes treatments for ocular rosacea and a potential prophylactic for Lyme disease Financial Performance - **Q3 Revenue**: Approximately $119 million, with 103,000 bottles dispensed [2][3] - **Q4 Guidance**: Expected revenue between $140-$145 million, leading to total annual revenue of $440-$445 million for the year [3][20] - **DTC Campaign**: Successfully driving growth, with over 90% payer coverage achieved [5][11] Market Dynamics - **Sales Strategy**: Focus on educating eye care professionals (ECPs) about identifying Demodex blepharitis in patients, including those who are asymptomatic [4][5] - **Physician Engagement**: Over 20,000 ECPs have prescribed XDEMVY, with efforts to convert occasional prescribers into regular ones [7][8] - **Payer Relations**: Strong initial education efforts have led to good payer coverage, with no anticipated pushback from payers [11][20] Product Insights - **Efficacy**: 85% of patients reported clinically meaningful benefits from XDEMVY [9] - **Retreatment Rates**: Expected baseline retreatment rate of 20%, with current mid-teen rates observed in older cohorts [17][18] - **Seasonality**: Anticipated fluctuations in prescription volumes due to holidays and office closures [25] Future Outlook - **Ocular Rosacea Program**: Phase two study expected to start by the end of 2025, with top-line data anticipated in the second half of 2026 [46][48] - **Lyme Disease Program**: Oral prophylactic treatment showing promise, with a tick kill study indicating 98% efficacy [56][57] - **Financial Position**: Well-capitalized with approximately $400 million available for future investments and potential partnerships [59] Strategic Considerations - **Guidance Changes**: Transitioning to revenue guidance for 2026 based on improved understanding of market dynamics and DTC impact [32][33] - **Sales Force Utilization**: Plans to leverage the existing sales force for potential new products and partnerships in the future [60] Additional Notes - **Market Education**: Continuous efforts to educate both physicians and patients about Demodex blepharitis and ocular rosacea are crucial for driving adoption [39][51] - **Regulatory Feedback**: Positive feedback from the FDA regarding endpoints for ocular rosacea studies, focusing on patient-reported outcomes [41][42]

Group 1 - The article does not provide any relevant content regarding company or industry insights [1]

分组1 - Tarsus Pharmaceuticals reported a quarterly loss of $0.3 per share, which was better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.35, and an improvement from a loss of $0.61 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +14.29% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $118.7 million for the quarter ended September 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.80%, and showing significant growth from $48.12 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Tarsus Pharmaceuticals has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters and has topped consensus revenue estimates four times during the same period [2] 分组2 - The stock has increased approximately 26% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 16.5% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.10 on revenues of $127.92 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$1.62 on revenues of $428.6 million [7] - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, to which Tarsus Pharmaceuticals belongs, is currently ranked in the top 39% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals reported approximately $119 million in net revenue, reflecting a significant increase from the previous quarter, with over 103,000 bottles of XDEMVY delivered to patients [3][10][15] - The company achieved a gross to net discount of 44.7%, consistent with previous guidance, driven by adjustments related to the Medicare Manufacturers Discount Program and an increase in Medicare patients entering the catastrophic coverage category [16][17] - For Q4, Tarsus expects net product sales for XDEMVY to be in the range of $140 million to $145 million, contributing to an annual revenue forecast of $440 million to $445 million [17][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - XDEMVY has become one of the best-selling prescription eye drops, with over 20,000 doctors prescribing it, and a 20% increase in weekly prescribers noted [4][10][11] - The refill rate for prescriptions is showing positive trends, with over 10% of weekly prescriptions being refills, and expectations for this to stabilize around 20% over time [13][35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing a positive trend in direct-to-consumer (DTC) engagement, with a 90% increase in website visits and a 42% growth in unaided awareness since the last quarter [12][60] - Tarsus is seeing strong adoption across multiple patient segments, particularly in the treatment of Demodex blepharitis, which is now recognized as a mainstream condition [13][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Tarsus aims to broaden its pipeline and expand globally, with plans to initiate a phase two trial for ocular rosacea by the end of the year and to advance its Lyme disease prevention program [8][18] - The company is focused on creating a market and shifting physician behavior to establish XDEMVY as a standard treatment in eye care [9][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing growth trajectory of XDEMVY, anticipating continued momentum into 2026 and beyond, with a clear path to achieving Blockbuster Plus potential [19][20] - The management team highlighted the importance of physician education and patient engagement in driving the adoption of XDEMVY [35][56] Other Important Information - Tarsus is evaluating strategic options for its pipeline programs, including potential partnerships to advance its Lyme disease program efficiently [18] - The company is also considering flexible commercial strategies for international markets, particularly in Europe and Japan [18][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in doctors' practice patterns regarding XDEMVY - Management noted a significant increase in the depth of prescribing, with a 20% rise in weekly prescribers and a 30% increase in those prescribing multiple times a week, driven by new data on meibomian gland disease [25][27][29] Question: Refill rates and patient return behavior - The company reported a positive trend in refill rates, with over 10% of weekly prescriptions being refills, and emphasized the importance of physician education on the chronic nature of the disease to encourage patient follow-ups [33][35] Question: Update on peak sales estimates for XDEMVY - Management indicated that while they are thrilled with current performance, they are not ready to quantify peak sales estimates but continue to believe in the Blockbuster Plus potential of XDEMVY [33][39] Question: Status of TP-04 study for ocular rosacea - The company confirmed that no further FDA meeting is needed before starting the TP-04 trial, which is on track to begin later this year [43][44] Question: Insights on operational spending for 2026 - Management expects operational expenses to align with 2025 levels, with a focus on DTC spending and potential costs associated with the ocular rosacea and Lyme disease programs [45][46] Question: Traction between optometrists and ophthalmologists - Tarsus sees a balanced mix of prescriptions from both optometrists and ophthalmologists, with approximately 65% of volume coming from optometry, and both groups are showing strong engagement with XDEMVY [75][78]

Financial Performance - XDEMVY net sales reached $118.7 million in Q3 2025[30], representing a ~147% year-over-year growth[11, 30] - Over 103,000 XDEMVY bottles were delivered to patients in Q3 2025[30] - The gross-to-net discount was 44.7% in Q3 2025[30] - The company projects XDEMVY net product sales of approximately $140-$145 million for Q4 2025[32] and a gross-to-net discount of ~43-45%[33] - Full-year 2025 XDEMVY net product sales are projected to be approximately $440-$445 million[34] Market and Commercial Expansion - An estimated 25 million Americans are living with Demodex blepharitis (DB)[16] - Approximately 9 million patients are proactively seeking treatment for DB or complementary eye conditions/diseases[16] - Over 20,000 eye care professionals (ECPs) are prescribing XDEMVY[20] - There was a 20% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth in ECPs prescribing XDEMVY once per week[20], and a 30% QoQ growth in ECPs prescribing XDEMVY more than once per week[20] Pipeline Development - The company plans to initiate a Phase 2 study for TP-04 (ocular rosacea) in Q4 2025[35] and a Phase 2 study for TP-05 (Lyme Disease prevention) in 2026[14, 35] - The company is on track for potential submission of XDEMVY in Europe in 2026[14, 35] and regulatory approval in 2027[35]

Financial Performance - XDEMVY generated $118.7 million in net product sales during Q3 2025, representing a 147% year-over-year increase[199]. - For the three months ended September 30, 2025, product sales reached $118.7 million, a significant increase from $48.1 million in the same period of 2024, driven by approximately 103,000 bottles of XDEMVY delivered to patients compared to 41,400 bottles in the prior year[218]. - Total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $299.7 million, compared to $116.5 million for the same period in 2024, marking an increase of $183.1 million[225]. - The net loss for the three months ended September 30, 2025, was $12.6 million, a decrease from a net loss of $23.4 million in the same period of 2024, reflecting a reduction of $10.8 million[217]. - The company has incurred significant net operating losses since inception, with net losses of $58.0 million and $92.4 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, and 2024, respectively[210]. - The accumulated deficit as of September 30, 2025, was $418.3 million, up from $360.2 million as of December 31, 2024[240]. Market Opportunity - Approximately 25 million people in the U.S. suffer from Demodex blepharitis, indicating a significant market opportunity for XDEMVY[191]. - More than 90% of commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid lives are covered for XDEMVY, leading to a gross-to-net discount of 44.7%[199]. Product Development and Trials - The Ersa Trial showed statistically significant improvements in Meibomian Gland Secretion Score and the number of glands secreting normal liquid[197]. - TP-04 demonstrated statistically significant improvements in inflammatory lesions and Investigator's Global Assessment score in the Galatea Trial[201]. - TP-05 showed statistical significance in tick mortality compared to vehicle in the Carpo Trial, with a p-value of <0.001[203]. - A Phase 2 study for TP-04 is expected to initiate in December 2025, with topline results anticipated by year-end 2026[201]. - European regulatory submission for a preservative-free formulation of XDEMVY is expected in 2026, with approval anticipated in 2027[205]. Operating Expenses - Operating expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2025, totaled $133.2 million, up from $73.3 million in the same period of 2024, an increase of $59.9 million[217]. - Research and development expenses increased to $16.3 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, from $12.1 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to increased costs associated with the TP-04 program and personnel-related expenses[221]. - Selling, general and administrative expenses rose to $108.6 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $57.9 million in the same period of 2024, an increase of $50.7 million driven by higher marketing and personnel costs[222]. - Research and development expenses increased by $9.8 million to $46.3 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to $36.5 million in the prior year, driven by increased payroll and early-stage program costs[229]. - Selling, general and administrative expenses rose by $128.4 million to $256.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to increased payroll, marketing costs, and variable costs associated with commercial expansion for XDEMVY[230]. Cash and Financing - As of September 30, 2025, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $401.8 million[214]. - The company incurred a net cash used in operating activities of $31.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, primarily due to a net loss of $58.0 million[249]. - The company received approximately $134.8 million in net proceeds from a follow-on public offering completed in March 2025, selling 2,808,988 shares at $44.50 per share[235]. - Total proceeds from the China Out-License amounted to $86.1 million, including $15.0 million of initial consideration and $67.5 million for milestone achievements[236]. - The company has the potential to receive up to $120.0 million in additional consideration from GrandPharma based on future TP-03 events and sales milestones[237]. - The 2024 Credit Facility allows for an additional $50.0 million draw, contingent on achieving certain sales milestones, with a maturity date in April 2029[238]. - The company reported a net increase in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash of $17.9 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a decrease of $48.7 million in the prior year[248]. - The company had $75.0 million of debt principal outstanding as of September 30, 2025, with interest accruing at a floating rate based on the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) plus a margin of 6.75% per annum[264]. Other Considerations - The company believes that inflation, interest rate changes, and foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations did not have a significant impact on its results of operations for the periods presented[265]. - The company has not recorded any liabilities for indemnification rights and agreements as of September 30, 2025, as the fair value is considered minimal[261].