Group 1: Earnings Performance - UBS reported quarterly earnings of $0.51 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.42 per share, but down from $0.52 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 21.43% [1] - The company posted revenues of $12.56 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.28%, although this is a decrease from year-ago revenues of $12.74 billion [2] - Over the last four quarters, UBS has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates and revenue estimates [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - UBS shares have increased approximately 0.6% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of -5.5% [3] - The future performance of UBS stock will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the company's earnings outlook [4][6] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.39 on revenues of $11.53 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.84 on revenues of $46.89 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Banks - Foreign industry is currently in the top 6% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook for stocks within this sector [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were USD 12,557 million, a decrease of 1.4% compared to USD 12,739 million in Q1 2024[16] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was USD 1,692 million, down 3.6% from USD 1,755 million in Q1 2024[16] - The total comprehensive income for the quarter was USD 3,345 million, a significant recovery from a loss of USD 1,878 million in the previous quarter[34] - Profit before tax increased by USD 257 million, or 23%, to USD 1,359 million, driven by higher total revenues[90] - Total revenues rose by USD 279 million, or 5%, to USD 6,422 million, primarily due to higher recurring net fee income and transaction-based income[91] - Total revenues increased by USD 279m, or 5%, to USD 6,422m compared to the previous year[99] - Operating profit before tax reached USD 1,359m, reflecting an increase of USD 257m from the prior year[99] Cost Management - UBS Group achieved cumulative gross cost savings of USD 8.4 billion by the end of Q1 2025, representing approximately 65% of the target of USD 13 billion in annualized exit rate gross cost savings by the end of 2026[19] - Integration-related expenses for the quarter totaled USD 894 million, a decrease from USD 1,233 million in the previous quarter[36] - Total operating expenses increased by USD 67 million, or 1%, to USD 10,324 million, primarily due to an USD 83 million increase in personnel expenses[40][57] - Operating expenses increased by USD 13 million to USD 5,057 million, mainly due to higher financial advisor compensation[96] Asset Management - Total assets as of March 31, 2025, were USD 1,543,363 million, a decrease from USD 1,606,798 million in Q1 2024[16] - Risk-weighted assets (RWA) decreased by USD 15.3bn to USD 483.3bn in Q1 2025, driven by asset size reductions and Basel III implementation[78] - The CET1 capital ratio remained stable at 14.3% despite a decrease in CET1 capital[79] - Invested assets increased by USD 36 billion to USD 4,218 billion, driven by positive foreign currency effects and net new asset inflows of USD 31.5 billion[97] Capital and Liquidity - The liquidity coverage ratio as of March 31, 2025, was 181.0%, down from 220.2% in Q1 2024[16] - UBS's CET1 capital ratio target is around 14%, which will guide its share repurchase strategy[32] - Common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital decreased to USD 69.152 billion from USD 71.367 billion, primarily due to a net share repurchase effect of USD 3.0 billion[187] - Total going concern capital as of March 31, 2025, is USD 87.837 billion, an increase from USD 87.739 billion as of December 31, 2024[185] Strategic Initiatives - UBS is on track to complete the integration of Credit Suisse by the end of 2026, focusing on client account migrations and infrastructure decommissioning[17] - The company entered into a strategic collaboration with 360 ONE WAM Ltd, acquiring a 4.95% interest and transferring its onshore wealth management business in India[33] - UBS plans to repurchase USD 1 billion of shares in the first half of 2025, with USD 0.5 billion completed in Q1 and an additional USD 0.5 billion planned for Q2[32] Tax and Regulatory - In Q1 2025, the net income tax expense was USD 430m, with an effective tax rate of 20.2%, down from USD 612m and 25.8% in Q1 2024[61] - The company anticipates an effective tax rate of around zero in Q2 2025 due to tax planning measures related to integration[84] - The amendments to the Capital Adequacy Ordinance incorporating final Basel III standards entered into force on January 1, 2025[178] Market and Economic Conditions - Inflation has abated in major Western economies, but concerns regarding future developments remain[166] - The company continues to monitor geopolitical developments and their potential impacts on financial stability[164]

Group 1 - UBS reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.692 billion in the first quarter, exceeding the mean forecast of $1.359 billion from analysts [2] - Group revenue for the same period was $12.557 billion, slightly below analyst expectations of $12.99 billion [2] - The bank is attempting to address significant share declines that have impacted its status as the largest bank in continental Europe [1]

Core Insights - UBS is well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in the upcoming report, having surpassed earnings estimates consistently in the last two quarters [1] - The average earnings surprise for UBS over the last two quarters is 91.79% [1] Earnings Performance - For the last reported quarter, UBS achieved earnings of $0.23 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.10 per share, resulting in a surprise of 130% [2] - In the previous quarter, UBS was expected to post earnings of $0.28 per share but delivered $0.43 per share, leading to a surprise of 53.57% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for UBS, with a positive Earnings ESP of +6.02%, indicating bullish sentiment among analysts regarding its near-term earnings potential [5][8] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data showing that such combinations lead to positive surprises nearly 70% of the time [6][8] Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7] - A negative Earnings ESP reduces predictive power but does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss [9] Strategic Insights - Companies that beat consensus EPS estimates may not always see their shares gain, and some may remain stable even if they miss estimates, highlighting the importance of checking Earnings ESP before quarterly releases [10]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of the design of financial instruments, such as bonds, stocks, and futures, and how this design influences their usage [1] - Tim Worstall is identified as a wholesaler of rare earth metals and an expert in scandium, contributing to various media outlets [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific company or industry analysis, focusing instead on the author's background and opinions [2]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Market Predictions - UBS Chief Strategist Bhanu Baweja warns that the "visibly tiring" US consumer may lead to an 8% drop in the S&P 500, with key economic indicators showing weakness [1] - Baweja projects the S&P 500 could fall to 5,300 points as profit estimates decline over the next three to four months, despite a recent two-week high [2] - Analysts forecast S&P 500 earnings growth to decrease from 12.5% to 9.5% in 2025, indicating a cautious outlook [4] Group 2: Performance of ETFs - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has retreated 3.4% over the past month, while inverse S&P 500 ETFs like ProShares Short S&P500 ETF (SH) and ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) have gained 3.5% and 6.4%, respectively [3] - iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV) and SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) are recommended for investors, both yielding over 4% annually [6] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - Baweja has become more optimistic on bonds due to a slowing economy reducing inflationary concerns, favoring two-year US Treasuries over 10-year bonds [5] - The long end of the yield curve may lag due to declining foreign demand for US government debt, with iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) losing 1.8% in the past month [6]

Core Points - The article discusses the expertise of Ernest Hoffman in the field of crypto and market reporting, highlighting his extensive experience and contributions to media and economic news [2] Group 1 - Ernest Hoffman has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster, and producer [2] - He began working in market news in 2007 and established a fast web-based audio news service [2] - Hoffman produced economic news videos in partnership with MSN and the TMX [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Group AG is planning to divest part of its asset management division focused on real estate investments, which may be valued at less than $1 billion [1] Group 1: Divestment and Restructuring Plans - UBS Group is reviewing its asset management division, particularly Swiss real estate assets, for potential sale [1][2] - The decision to consider selling part of the asset management unit aligns with UBS's strategy to streamline operations and improve profitability following the acquisition of Credit Suisse [3][5] - UBS's asset management division contributed 6.5% to the bank's total revenues in 2024, significantly overshadowed by the wealth management division [4] Group 2: Integration and Cost Reduction Efforts - UBS is progressing with the integration of Credit Suisse, having migrated over 90% of client accounts outside Switzerland to UBS platforms [6][7] - The company aims to achieve gross cost reductions of $13 billion by the end of 2026, with $7.5 billion or approximately 58% of the targeted savings already realized since the end of 2022 [8] Group 3: Market Performance - UBS shares have increased by 11.2% over the past six months, slightly outperforming the industry growth of 11% [9]

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 _________________ FORM 6-K REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16 UNDER THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Date: March 17, 2025 UBS Group AG (Registrant's Name) Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland (Address of principal executive office) Commission File Number: 1-36764 UBS AG (Registrant's Name) Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland Aeschenvorstadt 1, 4051 Basel, Switzerland (Address of principa ...

Financial Performance - Net interest income from financial instruments measured at fair value through profit or loss increased by 87% to USD 7,061 million in 2024, compared to USD 3,770 million in 2023[597]. - Net fee and commission income rose by USD 4,568 million to USD 26,138 million, primarily due to the consolidation of Credit Suisse revenues for the full period[598]. - Fees for portfolio management and related services increased by USD 1,650 million to USD 12,323 million, largely driven by the consolidation of Credit Suisse revenues and positive market performance[599]. - Total revenues increased by USD 2,960m, or 14%, to USD 24,516m, driven by the consolidation of Credit Suisse revenues and higher recurring net fee income[640]. - Total comprehensive income attributable to shareholders was USD 3,388 million, reflecting a net profit of USD 5,085 million and negative other comprehensive income of USD 1,698 million[617]. - Total revenues increased by USD 2,245 million, or 26%, to USD 10,948 million, with underlying total revenues rising by 23% to USD 9,958 million[687]. Expenses and Cost Management - Personnel expenses increased by USD 2,419 million to USD 27,318 million, largely due to the consolidation of Credit Suisse expenses for the full period[607]. - General and administrative expenses decreased by USD 32 million to USD 10,124 million, primarily due to a reduction in litigation-related expenses[608]. - Operating expenses rose by USD 2,663m, or 15%, to USD 20,608m, including a USD 785m increase in integration-related expenses[646]. - The cost/income ratio improved to 84.8%, down from 95.0%, reflecting higher total revenues despite increased operating expenses[626]. - The cost/income ratio increased to 84.1% from 83.2%, while the underlying cost/income ratio improved to 79.5% from 81.3%[647]. Taxation - The effective tax rate for 2024 was 24.6%, compared to 3.1% in 2023, with total income tax expenses recognized at USD 1,675 million[613]. - The Group expects the 2025 full year effective tax rate to be materially less than the structural rate of 23% due to projected reorganization-related tax benefits[616]. Credit and Risk Management - Total net credit loss expenses in 2024 were USD 551 million, a decrease from USD 1,037 million in 2023, reflecting net releases of USD 99 million related to performing positions[605]. - Net credit loss releases were USD 16m, a significant improvement from net credit loss expenses of USD 166m in 2023[645]. - Credit loss expenses decreased to USD 97 million from USD 190 million in 2023, reflecting improved credit conditions[694]. - The total credit-impaired exposure, gross, was USD 6.637 billion as of December 31, 2024, with stage 3 impairments at USD 5.300 billion[788]. - Total allowances and provisions for expected credit losses amounted to USD 2.507 billion, with stage 1 allowances at USD 487 million[788]. Asset Management - Total revenues for the Asset Management division increased by USD 496m, or 18%, to USD 3,182m, reflecting the consolidation of Credit Suisse revenues[674]. - Net management fees in Asset Management rose by USD 367m, or 14%, to USD 2,921m, attributed to the consolidation of Credit Suisse net management fees and positive market performance[675]. - Total net new money in Asset Management reached USD 44.6 billion, a significant increase from USD 15.7 billion in the previous year[672]. Market and Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical and macroeconomic risks remain significant, impacting business activities and financial results[718]. - Cyber risks have increased due to geopolitical trends, necessitating enhanced operational resilience measures[718]. - Sustainability and climate risks are a focus for UBS, with enhanced methodologies and updated guidelines on sustainable finance to address emerging risks[720]. Integration and Future Outlook - Integration of Credit Suisse is progressing, with client account migrations completed in Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and parts of Europe[716]. - The company aims for a fully integrated risk framework by the end of 2025, incorporating legacy Credit Suisse models into UBS's risk management[716]. Risk Governance and Compliance - The Group Chief Risk Officer is responsible for developing the risk management framework for various risk categories, including credit and market risks[730]. - The Group Chief Compliance and Governance Officer oversees the framework for non-financial risks, including financial crime and operational risks[731]. - The risk governance framework operates along three lines of defense, ensuring accountability and effective risk management processes[721]. Loans and Advances - Total loans and advances to customers, gross, decreased from USD 317,137 million in 31.12.23 to USD 295,856 million in 31.12.24, a decline of approximately 6.5%[795]. - Residential real estate loans decreased from USD 111,755 million in 31.12.23 to USD 106,124 million in 31.12.24, a decline of about 5.9%[795]. - Total allowances for loans and advances increased from USD 181 million in 31.12.23 to USD 221 million in 31.12.24, an increase of about 22.1%[795].