去年11月，瑞银成功试点称为"瑞银数字现金（UBS DigitalCash）"的基于区块链的跨境支付方案。据 悉，试点完成了以美元、瑞士法郎、欧元和人民币进行的跨境支付。此前，瑞银还参与了开发基于瑞士 法郎的央行数字货币（wCBDC）的相关项目。 近日，渣打集团近日宣布将通过其英国分行推出比特币（XBT/USD）和以太币（XET/USD）现货交易 服务，渣打据此成为首家提供这一交易服务的全球系统性重要银行。该行将很快推出无本金交割远期交 易。 据21世纪经济报道记者统计，已有花旗、摩根大通、摩根士丹利、富国、纽约梅隆、瑞银、渣打、德 银、汇丰、法巴、法兴等11家全球系统重要性银行（G-SIBs）在加密货币领域开展实质性布局。 整体来看，华尔街大行的步伐最快。 6月，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）宣布推出名为 JPMD 的类稳定币代币。据摩根大通官网介绍，JPMD 只面向该行机构客户，作为一个在结算和支付场景中替代稳定币的方案，但暂不面向零售客户。对于 JPMD与稳定币的差异，摩根大通表示，JPMD具备稳定币支持可编程、点对点交易的特性，但在利息 支付和存款处理方式上有所不同，JPMD可计入客户的银行 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with strong performance in consumption, exports, and industrial production, leading several international investment banks to raise their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025 [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Forecasts - UBS raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China from 4% to 4.7%, citing a robust second-quarter GDP growth of 5.2% supported by "trade-in" subsidies and stable export growth [1] - Morgan Stanley increased its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.8%, highlighting export resilience and proactive fiscal measures as key growth drivers [1] - Nomura maintained its GDP growth predictions for the second half of this year and 2026 but slightly adjusted its 2025 forecast upward due to better-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth [4] Group 2: Export Performance and Policy Support - The report indicated that exports outperformed expectations due to factors like "export grabbing" towards the U.S., ASEAN transshipment, and the depreciation of the yuan against non-dollar currencies [2] - Barclays Bank anticipates increased government efforts to boost consumption in the second half, including expanding the "trade-in" policy to more categories and potentially extending subsidies to additional service sectors [4] - UBS expects additional stimulus measures to be introduced by the government in late Q3 or Q4, including an increase in the fiscal deficit ratio by over 0.5 percentage points and interest rate cuts of 20-30 basis points [4] Group 3: Economic Challenges Ahead - Morgan Stanley noted that economic growth is expected to slow further in the second half, with weakening exports becoming a major drag on growth due to the fading "export grabbing" effect and renewed U.S. tariff policies [5] - The marginal effectiveness of fiscal stimulus is expected to diminish, and the impact of the "trade-in" policy on consumption will gradually decline [5] - A stimulus package of approximately 0.5 to 1 trillion yuan may be introduced, with timing potentially in September or October, allowing policymakers to assess economic trends more accurately [5]

Economic Growth Predictions - Multiple foreign institutions have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025, with Morgan Stanley increasing its prediction from 4.5% to 4.8%, Goldman Sachs from 4.6% to 4.7%, and UBS from 4% to 4.7% [1][4] - At least nine U.S. and international banks have adjusted their forecasts for China's economic growth, with Barclays and Morgan Stanley predicting nearly 5% growth for this year [2] Economic Indicators - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with industrial output increasing by 6.4%, and high-tech manufacturing growing by 8.7% [3] - Retail sales increased by 5.0% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point acceleration from the first quarter [3] Chip Export Developments - AMD plans to resume exports of its MI308 chip to China following U.S. government approval, marking a significant shift in U.S. policy regarding AI chip exports to China [7] - The approval of H20 chip exports to China is expected to enhance Nvidia's profitability and indicates progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations [8] Market Sentiment - Optimism regarding China's economic growth is improving investment expectations in the Chinese stock market, with Citigroup upgrading its rating on the consumer sector from "neutral" to "overweight" [5] - Bridgewater's onshore China fund achieved a 14% return in the first half of the year, reflecting a positive outlook on Chinese equities due to policy support and relatively low valuations [5]

最新发布的景顺全球主权资产管理研究显示，一些国际投资机构对中国市场的兴趣明显回升。该调查涵 盖83家主权财富基金和58家央行，这些机构总共管理约27万亿美元的资产。 "我们上调了中国2025年全年GDP增速预测。"瑞银投资银行高级中国经济学家张宁近日表示。 除瑞银外，德意志银行、惠誉也纷纷上调了对2025年中国经济增速的预测。 在政策层面，路博迈基金认为，下半年，央行可能会通过降准、降息等手段，增加市场流动性，降低企 业融资成本，刺激经济增长。在财政政策方面，政府可能会加大基础设施建设投资，推动产业升级和科 技创新，同时实施更积极的税收政策，减轻企业负担，激发市场活力。 科技板块带来的中国资产价值重估共识扩大也是外资机构看多中国资产潜在机会的关键因素。汇丰环球 私人银行及财富管理亚洲区首席投资总监范卓云表示，对中国的科技股保持相对乐观的投资评估，特别 是DeepSeek带来了重大开源技术突破，带动了中国人工智能的普及化、商业化。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室在近日发布的亚洲2025年中展望中表示，进入下半年，在AI应用日益普 及、政府利好政策持续以及DeepSeek的突破带动企业需求增加的支持下，中国科技板块蕴 ...

知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 Global Research 14 July 2025 China Equity Strategy How will a weaker dollar impact A-shares and AH premium ? Four structural reasons why the dollar could continue to weaken UBS forecasts the dollar to continue to weaken this year, and has set its 2025 year-end target for EUR/USD and USD/JPY at 1.23 and 130, respectively. In addition to ുറ്റു വ slowdown in US GDP growth and Fed rate cuts, UBS foresees four other structural reasons why the dollar should depreciate further. (1) Net forei ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the 2025 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.7% from 4% previously projected [5][54]. Core Insights - Robust Q2 GDP growth of 5.2% YoY was supported by better retail sales and solid exports, despite ongoing property downturn and decelerating fixed asset investment (FAI) growth [2][9]. - The property downturn is expected to continue in H2 2025, impacting construction activities and consumer confidence [3][34]. - Additional policy stimulus is anticipated to be modest and data-dependent, with expectations of a fiscal stimulus of >0.5% of GDP in H2 [4][42]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Q2 GDP growth was 5.2% YoY, slightly lower than Q1's 5.4% [7][9]. - Industrial production growth edged down to 6.2% YoY in Q2 from 6.5% in Q1, while service value-added growth improved [9][15]. - The report anticipates a deceleration in economic growth in H2, particularly in Q4, with expected GDP growth of 4.7% YoY in Q3 and below 4% YoY in Q4 [5][54]. Exports and Trade - China's exports grew by 6.2% YoY in Q2, with a revised full-year export growth forecast of 1% for 2025 [3][29]. - Exports to the US are expected to decline deeper in H2 due to tariff shocks and front-loading effects [3][29]. - The report notes that global demand for Chinese goods outside the US appears better than expected, with strong growth in exports to ASEAN and EU [26][29]. Fixed Asset Investment - FAI growth decelerated to 2.1% YoY in Q2 from 4.2% in Q1, with property investment contracting by -12.1% [13][54]. - Equipment purchases remained strong, contributing positively to overall FAI growth [13][19]. Consumption - Retail sales growth moderated to 4.8% YoY in June from 6.4% in May, with expectations of decelerating consumption growth in H2 due to high base effects from trade-in subsidies [11][35]. - The report highlights that household disposable income growth may slow, impacting consumption without fiscal subsidies [35][54]. Policy Stimulus - The government is expected to deliver additional fiscal stimulus in H2, but the scale is likely to be modest at >0.5% of GDP [4][42]. - The People's Bank of China (PBC) is anticipated to cut policy rates by another 20-30 basis points in H2 [4][42]. Currency Outlook - The report suggests that the Chinese Yuan (CNY) may strengthen in the near term but could weaken towards the end of 2025, with expectations of a range of 7.0-7.3 against the US dollar in H2 [56][54].

瑞银：预计2026年6月欧元对美元将升至1.23 金十数据7月16日讯，瑞银策略师表示，对于寻求分散美元持仓的全球投资者而言，欧元将成为核心替 代货币。因此，他们上调了对欧元汇率的预期。瑞银预计，到2026年6月，欧元对美元汇率将升至 1.23，高于2025年底1.21的预期水平；而此前对这两个时间点的预期分别为1.20和1.16。他们称："对于 寻求分散美元持仓的全球投资者来说，欧元是突出的'默认'替代选择。" ...

智通财经APP获悉，国际大行瑞银(UBS)近日发布研报称，该机构对于美国消费者和经济展望整体趋于谨慎，并且预计金融市场的"风险偏 好"可能遭遇重大打压，主要因特朗普政府近期新宣布的将于8月实施的大范围25%高关税将进一步抑制消费者支出，关税引发的通胀反弹以 及美联储因潜在关税压力而长期维系高利率共同叠加对消费形成压制。同时，瑞银强调全球消费金融微观数据显示贷款拖欠率上升、消费者 支出意愿转弱，反映信贷环境趋紧下家庭资产负债表压力增大，潜在信用风险上升。 瑞银策略团队认为股票等风险资产短期以及整个下半年可能面临回撤压力——尤其是屡创历史新高的MSCI全球股票股指与标普500指数可能 面临更大下行压力。瑞银警告称，风险资产近期或面临新一轮回撤，通胀高关税双重抑制支出，市场需重估家庭资产负债表。 在宏观逆风和微观风险信号并存的背景下，瑞银给出的股票市场策略并非青睐AI算力领军者以及未盈利的热门科技股在内的进攻型投资策 略，而是积极转向防御，该机构愈发倾向规避信用风险高、对景气敏感的消费子行业(如高端可选消费品、依赖融资驱动的行业)，而偏好可 选消费巨头，以及现金流稳健、需求刚性的高质量基本面企业。 此外，瑞银全球股 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS suggest that gold is one of the best investment options following the recent tariff announcements by the Trump administration [1] - Morgan Stanley's analysts expect a weaker dollar to benefit commodities and rising US inflation to attract funds into precious metals, with Chinese policies potentially acting as a bullish factor [1][2] - Morgan Stanley has raised its fourth-quarter gold price target to $3,800 per ounce, citing support from central bank and investment demand, a weaker dollar, ETF inflows, and ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its forecast that gold prices will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and rise to $4,000 by mid-2026, supported by central bank and ETF inflows [3][4] - UBS recommends buying gold as a hedge against policy risks, despite viewing the recent tariff increases as a negotiation tactic [4] - UBS analysts predict that the effective US tariff rate will stabilize around 15%, which is less than the recently announced rates of 30% to 35%, supporting continued gains in the S&P 500 [4]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025, citing strong performance in Q2 2023 and expected government support measures [1] Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in Q2 2023, indicating robust economic performance [1] - The growth was supported by improved retail sales due to "trade-in" subsidies and steady export growth [1] Government Policy Expectations - The government is expected to implement the remaining parts of the annual broad fiscal plan in the second half of the year, including planned trade-in subsidies [1] - A reduction in policy interest rates by 20 to 30 basis points is anticipated in the second half of the year, along with additional measures to promote real estate inventory reduction [1] Future Projections - Additional policy support measures may depend on economic data, with new fiscal policies potentially being introduced by the end of Q3 or in Q4 [1] - Overall, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward due to strong export resilience, low base effects from trade-in subsidy policies, early issuance of government bonds, and planned policy support measures [1] Inflation and Currency Outlook - CPI pressure is expected to rise slightly in the second half of the year, while the RMB may strengthen in the short term [1] - External uncertainties could lead to the RMB/USD exchange rate reaching 7.1 to 7.2 by the end of 2025 [1]