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Earnings Preview: Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR (VIST) Q4 Earnings Expected to Decline
ZACKS· 2025-02-11 16:06
Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Vista Oil & Gas, despite an expected increase in revenues, which may significantly impact the stock price depending on the actual results compared to estimates [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is projected to show earnings of $0.90 per share, reflecting a decline of 64.3% year-over-year, while revenues are expected to reach $468.13 million, an increase of 51.4% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 9.3% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts of the company's performance [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, which complicates predictions of an earnings beat [10][11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Vista Oil & Gas was expected to earn $1.36 per share but only achieved $0.55, leading to a surprise of -59.56%. Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [12][13]. Conclusion - Vista Oil & Gas does not currently appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider additional factors when evaluating the stock ahead of the earnings release [16].
Vista Energy: A Growth Play In Vaca Muerta
Seeking Alpha· 2025-01-22 10:32
Company Overview - Vista Energy (NYSE: VIST) is involved in the exploration, extraction, production, and marketing of oil in Latin America, primarily based in Mexico with significant assets in the Argentine Vaca Muerta basin located in the province of Neuquen [1] Investment Focus - The company is appealing to investors looking for value in the commodities sector, particularly in oil and gas, metals, and mining, especially in emerging markets [1] - It emphasizes sustained free cash flows, low leverage, and sustainable debt levels, targeting companies in distress with high recovery potential [1] Shareholder Value - Vista Energy is noted for its pro-shareholder attitude, maintaining solid and sustained buyback programs and dividend distributions over time [1]
Vista Energy: Strong Growth, Big Potential, Fair Value
Seeking Alpha· 2024-12-17 15:34
Group 1 - Vista Energy is a leading oil and gas company operating in Argentina's Vaca Muerta basin, having been publicly listed for just over five years [1] - The company's stock price has experienced significant growth, indicating a strong performance in the market [1] Group 2 - Nabeel Bukhari, a law graduate with expertise in financial analysis, provides insights into business dynamics by combining legal knowledge with financial perspectives [1] - His work has been published on respected platforms and featured in well-known publications, enhancing the credibility of his analyses [1]
Vista Energy: Attractive Valuation, Superior Growth Profile For This LATAM Oil Stock
Seeking Alpha· 2024-11-20 02:45
Core Viewpoint - Vista Energy (NYSE: VIST) is highlighted as the best oil stock in Latin America due to its growth profile, execution track record, and valuation [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - The article emphasizes the growth potential of Vista Energy, suggesting it has a strong execution track record and favorable valuation metrics [1]. - The analyst has updated estimates for Vista Energy and increased the price target, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [1]. Group 2: Analyst Experience - The analyst brings over 30 years of experience in critically analyzing various industries, including airlines, oil, retail, mining, fintech, and e-commerce, which adds credibility to the analysis [1]. - The analyst's background includes navigating multiple crises and entrepreneurial ventures, providing a diverse foundation for understanding market dynamics [1].
Vista Energy's Shares Gain 10% Despite Q3 Earnings Miss
ZACKS· 2024-10-28 14:05
Core Viewpoint - Vista Energy S.A.B. de CV (VIST) experienced a 10.2% increase in stock price despite reporting weak Q3 2024 earnings, likely driven by expectations of higher production levels [1] Group 1: Q3 Earnings & Revenues - VIST reported adjusted earnings per share of 55 cents for Q3, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.36 and down from $1.29 in the prior-year quarter [2] - Quarterly revenues reached $462.4 million, up from $302.8 million year-over-year, and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $442.5 million [2] Group 2: Production and Costs - Total production averaged 72,825 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), a 47% increase from 49,450 Boe/d in the year-ago quarter, with 87.2% being crude oil [4] - Crude oil production rose to 63,499 barrels per day (Bbls/d) from 41,490 Bbls/d year-over-year, while natural gas liquids production increased by 36% and natural gas output by 16% [4] - Lifting expenses for Q3 were $31.6 million, a 44% increase from $21.9 million year-over-year, but lifting costs per Boe declined by 2% to $4.7 [6] Group 3: Realized Prices - The average realized crude oil price was $68.4 per barrel, up from $67.6 year-over-year, while the average realized natural gas price increased to $3.8 per million Btu from $3.3 [5] - Realized natural gas liquids price rose to $315 per metric ton from $233 [5] Group 4: Financial Position - As of September 30, 2024, VIST had $256.03 million in cash and short-term investments, with long-term debt of $725.2 million and short-term debt of $249.9 million [7] - Capital expenditure totaled $368.5 million, with net cash provided by operating activities amounting to $254.9 million [7] Group 5: Guidance and Projections - VIST aims for production of 85 MBoE/d in Q4 2024, with an annual target of 68 to 70 MBoE/d for 2024, and anticipates growth to 95 to 100 MBoE/d in 2025 [8] - Projected adjusted EBITDA for 2024 is between $1,000 million and $1,150 million, expected to rise to $1,500 million to $1,650 million in 2025, with planned capital expenditures of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion for 2025 [9]
Vista Energy(VIST) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-10-24 19:22
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total production reached 72,800 BOEs per day, a 47% increase year-over-year and a 12% increase quarter-over-quarter [4][6] - Oil production was 63,500 barrels per day, reflecting a 53% year-over-year increase and an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase [4][6] - Total revenues for the quarter were $462 million, a 53% increase compared to the same quarter last year [4][7] - Adjusted EBITDA was $310 million, a 37% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted net income of $53 million, resulting in an adjusted EPS of $0.60 per share [5][9] - Free cash flow was negative at $74 million due to increased capital expenditures [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company connected 12 new wells in Q3, totaling 40 new wells year-to-date, on track to meet the annual guidance of 50 to 54 new wells [6][13] - Lifting costs were $4.7 per BOE, down 2% year-over-year but up 5% sequentially due to increased costs in gathering and processing [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Realized oil prices averaged $68.4 per barrel, a 1% increase year-over-year but a 5% decrease quarter-over-quarter [7][8] - The company exported 3.5 million barrels of oil during the quarter, a 57% increase from the previous year [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on an export-oriented strategy, increasing oil sales in international markets [8] - The 2025 guidance was updated to forecast production between 95,000 and 100,000 barrels per day, indicating over 40% growth year-over-year [12][14] - The company plans to secure additional midstream capacity and has already secured a third drilling rig and a second frac set under term contracts [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving production targets and highlighted the successful execution of the annual growth program [13] - The company is optimistic about maintaining the current pricing dynamics between domestic and international oil prices due to new regulations [31] Other Important Information - The company executed a $50 million share buyback plan, totaling $100 million for the year [14] - Management indicated that they are still engaged in the competitive process for Exxon's assets in Argentina, viewing them as valuable for future growth [35][36] Q&A Session Summary Question: CapEx increase despite similar well activity - Management confirmed that the increase in CapEx was due to drilling longer laterals and more frac stages, leading to higher expected peak production [17][18] Question: Future well delivery potential - Management indicated that with the new frac set, there is potential to exceed the guidance of 52 to 60 new wells in 2025 [21][22] Question: Production evolution into 2025 - Management projected an average production of 95,000 to 100,000 barrels per day in 2025, with an exit rate above 100,000 barrels per day [26][27] Question: Local vs. export pricing dynamics - Management expects the pricing dynamics to remain stable, with local prices aligning closely with export prices [31] Question: Update on Exxon sale process - Management confirmed continued engagement in the sale process for Exxon's assets, viewing them as strategically beneficial [35][36] Question: Midstream capacity and long-term goals - Management discussed ongoing expansion plans for midstream capacity, particularly the Oldelval expansion expected in early 2025 [44] Question: Trucking activity guidance for Q4 - Management forecasted trucking volumes to average around 23,000 barrels per day in Q4 [48] Question: Lifting costs expectations - Management maintained guidance of $4.5 per barrel for lifting costs, indicating confidence in managing costs despite recent increases [50] Question: Hedging strategy for oil prices - Management stated that current regulations do not allow for a hedging program, and they do not plan to implement one in the near future [54] Question: Flexibility in 2025 guidance - Management confirmed that they have flexibility in their work program to expand production if market conditions allow [56]
Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR (VIST) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates
ZACKS· 2024-10-23 23:05
分组1 - Vista Oil & Gas reported quarterly earnings of $0.55 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.36 per share, and down from $1.29 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -59.56% [1] - The company posted revenues of $462.38 million for the quarter ended September 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.49%, and up from $289.69 million year-over-year [1] - Over the last four quarters, Vista Oil & Gas has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once and topped consensus revenue estimates only once [1] 分组2 - The stock has gained approximately 61.5% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 22.7% [2] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $1.39 on revenues of $523.22 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $5.86 on revenues of $1.68 billion [4] - The estimate revisions trend for Vista Oil & Gas is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expected underperformance in the near future [4] 分组3 - The Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry is currently in the bottom 9% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a challenging outlook for stocks in this sector [5] - Chevron, another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.66 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -12.8%, with revenues anticipated to be $51.12 billion, down 5.5% from the previous year [5]
Vista Energy(VIST) - 2024 Q3 - Quarterly Report
2024-10-23 20:06
Revenue and Profitability - Revenue from contracts with customers for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, was $1,176,450 thousand, representing a 37% increase compared to $859,578 thousand in the same period of 2023[8]. - Gross profit for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, was $601,103 thousand, up 38% from $436,156 thousand in the same period of 2023[8]. - Operating profit for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, reached $495,976 thousand, a 9% increase from $454,966 thousand in the same period of 2023[8]. - Profit for the period, net, for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, was $383,750 thousand, compared to $264,017 thousand in the same period of 2023, marking a 45% increase[8]. - Basic earnings per share for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $3.992, up from $2.834 in the same period of 2023, representing a 40.7% increase[77]. - Diluted earnings per share for the same period was $3.843, compared to $2.664 in 2023, indicating a 44.0% increase[82]. Assets and Equity - Total assets as of September 30, 2024, amounted to $3,481,681 thousand, an increase from $2,598,003 thousand as of December 31, 2023[12]. - Total equity as of September 30, 2024, was $1,520,309 thousand, up from $1,247,015 thousand as of December 31, 2023[12]. - Noncurrent assets in Argentina increased to $2,827,885,000 as of September 30, 2024, up from $2,122,735,000 as of December 31, 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 33.3%[61]. - As of September 30, 2024, total property, plant, and equipment increased to $3,715,576, up from $2,759,419 as of December 31, 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 34.7%[86]. Borrowings and Financial Liabilities - Borrowings increased to $975,230 thousand as of September 30, 2024, compared to $616,055 thousand as of December 31, 2023[12]. - Current borrowings rose significantly to $249,991 thousand from $61,223 thousand, marking a 309.5% increase[16]. - Noncurrent borrowings also saw an increase, reaching $725,239 thousand compared to $554,832 thousand, which is a 30.8% rise[16]. - The total carrying amount of bonds (ON) issued by Vista Argentina as of September 30, 2024, is $714,382 thousand, up from $590,030 thousand[106]. - The company reported proceeds from borrowings of $485,017 thousand for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, compared to $358,954 thousand for the same period in 2023, indicating a year-over-year increase of 35.1%[109]. Cash Flow and Investments - Net cash flows provided by operating activities rose to $589,541 thousand for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, up from $365,328 thousand in 2023, an increase of 61.6%[25]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were $249,062 thousand as of September 30, 2024, compared to $170,846 thousand at the end of the same period in 2023, showing a growth of 45.5%[25]. - The company experienced a net increase in cash and cash equivalents of $43,597 thousand for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, compared to a decrease of $4,403 thousand in 2023[25]. - The company’s cash, bank balances, and other short-term investments increased to $256,027 thousand as of September 30, 2024, from $213,253 thousand as of December 31, 2023[12]. Expenses and Costs - Current income tax expense for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, was $319,391 thousand, significantly higher than $55,963 thousand in the same period of 2023[8]. - Total operating costs for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, were $79,970,000, compared to $72,415,000 for the same period in 2023, representing an increase of about 10.5%[64]. - Selling expenses for the first nine months of 2024 totaled $77,807,000, up 56.7% from $49,622,000 in the same period of 2023[67]. - General and administrative expenses increased to $73,747,000 in the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $51,818,000 in the same period of 2023, reflecting a 42.3% rise[69]. Financial Performance and Other Income - The company reported total other financial income of $4,142,000 for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, a significant recovery from a loss of $61,657,000 in the same period of 2023[75]. - Other operating income for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was $47,660,000, down from $120,173,000 in the same period of 2023[70]. - Total royalties and other income for the period from January 1 to September 30, 2024, reached $170,054,000, a 30.6% increase from $130,220,000 in the same period of 2023[66]. Taxation and Regulatory Environment - The effective tax rate for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, was 18%, influenced by inflation adjustments and currency depreciation in Argentina[94]. - The Bases Law enacted in Argentina includes an Incentive Regime for Large Investments, providing stability and tax benefits for energy sector projects, which may positively impact future operations[48]. Receivables and Credit Losses - Current trade and other receivables rose to $349,674 as of September 30, 2024, up from $205,102 as of December 31, 2023, reflecting a growth of 70.2%[95]. - The allowance for expected credit losses recorded in trade and other receivables was 43 as of September 30, 2024, compared to 52 as of December 31, 2023[100]. - The company recognized an allowance for expected credit losses of 100% against all trade receivables that are 90 days past due, based on historical recovery rates[99]. Market Conditions and Currency Impact - The average market interest rate in Argentina for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, was 62%, down from 95% in the same period of 2023[132]. - The company reported a profit or loss sensitivity of $9,686,000 for a +/- 10% change in the exchange rate of ARS to USD as of September 30, 2024[131]. - The net changes in foreign exchange rate for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, resulted in a loss of $2,305 thousand, compared to a gain of $10,531 thousand in the same period of 2023[112].
What's in the Cards for Vista Energy This Earnings Season?
ZACKS· 2024-10-17 14:40
Core Viewpoint - Vista Energy S.A.B. de CV is expected to report its third-quarter 2024 results on October 23, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates showing a potential increase compared to the previous year, despite a recent earnings miss in the last quarter [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, Vista Energy's adjusted earnings were 74 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.40 [1] - The company has beaten earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed twice, resulting in an average negative surprise of 4.3% [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter EPS is $1.44, reflecting an increase of nearly 12% from the year-ago figure [1] Group 2: Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the upcoming quarter's revenues is $446.99 million, indicating a 54.3% improvement from the previous year's reported figure [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - The average spot prices for West Texas Intermediate crude were $81.80 per barrel in July, $76.68 in August, and $70.24 in September, while Brent crude prices were $85.15, $80.36, and $74.02 respectively during the same months [2] - The favorable crude pricing environment in the third quarter is expected to support exploration and production activities, contributing positively to Vista Energy's bottom line [2] Group 4: Earnings Whispers - The current Earnings ESP for Vista Energy is 0.00%, indicating no expected earnings beat this time [3] - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), which diminishes the likelihood of a positive earnings surprise [3]
Vista Energy: Strong Financials Is Key To Scaling Its Growth
Seeking Alpha· 2024-10-01 08:07
I am bullish on Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE: VIST ), backed by solid financials. The strong financials give the company an edge to put up more wells. Currently, it has 124 wells in Vaca I am an experienced financial analyst and a former writer for Fade The Market on Seeking Alpha, with a passion for numbers and a knack for unraveling complex financial data. Armed with a strong financial modeling and data analysis background, I thrive on providing accurate insights and recommendations to drive informe ...