Core Viewpoint - Vistra's stock has seen significant growth over the past year, but recent warnings about the challenges of a nuclear power renaissance in the U.S. may impact future performance [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Vistra's shares have increased by over 120% in the past year, driven by expectations of rising demand for nuclear power due to AI's energy needs and support from President Trump [3]. - However, shares fell by 4.1% following concerns about the feasibility of the nuclear renaissance plan [1]. Group 2: Nuclear Renaissance Challenges - The target set by President Trump for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to approve reactor design applications within 18 months is considered aggressive and potentially unrealistic, as typical approval times can extend to five years [4]. - The Journal suggests that any growth in nuclear power supply may come from extending licenses of existing reactors or restarting closed reactors, rather than new constructions [4]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - Analysts project strong earnings growth for Vistra, forecasting over 20% annual growth, which could justify the stock's current valuation of 27.5 times earnings [5]. - Vistra's stock appears approximately 20% cheaper when assessed on free cash flow (FCF) compared to GAAP earnings, with a valuation of 23 times FCF and a modest dividend yield of 0.5% [6].

Core Insights - Vistra Corp.'s aggressive share repurchase initiative is a key component of its long-term value creation strategy, having repurchased $5.2 billion in shares since November 2021, with an additional $1.5 billion authorized through 2026 [1][7]. Group 1: Share Repurchase Strategy - The share buyback program is supported by strong free cash flow generation, with expected adjusted free cash flow between $3.0 billion and $3.6 billion in 2025, highlighting financial discipline [2]. - The repurchase strategy aligns with Vistra's transition to a low-carbon portfolio, consolidating renewable and nuclear operations, which contributes to robust EBITDA and cash flow growth [3]. - The buyback program enhances shareholder confidence, improves capital efficiency, and strengthens Vistra's growth trajectory, making it a critical element of its long-term investment thesis [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - Other utilities, such as NextEra Energy and Constellation Energy, are also engaging in share repurchase programs to enhance shareholder value, indicating a broader trend in the industry [4][5]. - Vistra's shares have outperformed the Utility-Electric Power industry, rising 41.4% in the past six months compared to the industry's 8% growth [7][10]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - Vistra is currently trading at a premium valuation with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 27.06X, compared to the industry average of 14.58X [8]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vistra's earnings per share indicates an increase of 3.53% and 2.84% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, over the past 60 days [6].

Financial Performance & Guidance - Vistra Energy's FY 2017 Adjusted EBITDA was $1455 million, reaching the top quartile of the guidance range[15] - The FY 2017 Adjusted Free Cash Flow was $831 million, hitting the midpoint of the guidance range[15] - The company's 2018 Stand-Alone Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $1300 million and $1450 million[15] - The 2018 Stand-Alone Adjusted Free Cash Flow is estimated to be between $600 million and $750 million, which includes $70 million for non-recurring Comanche Peak generator capex[15] - Ongoing operations 2018E Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1350 million and $1490 million[15] Merger & Synergies - The merger with Dynegy (DYN) is on track to close in Q2 2018, having received HSR clearance and NYPSC approval[15] - Vistra Energy is progressing towards achieving projected EBITDA synergies of $225 million and Operational Performance Improvements (OPI) of $125 million[24] Commercial Operations - Vistra's commercial team delivered realized prices that were more than 40% higher than settled prices in 2017[27] - The fossil fleet commercial availability was 96% for 2017[28] - Luminant is forecasting realized prices of $3095 per MWh in 2018[28] Retail Performance - Residential customer count attrition rate continues to decline[31] - Strong 2017 volumes (GWh) were achieved despite mild weather[31]

2018 Financial and Business Highlights - Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA reached $2809 million[12], with results exceeding consensus and aligning with guidance midpoint[14] - Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG was $1611 million[12], surpassing guidance and achieving nearly 60% EBITDA to FCF conversion due to capex discipline[14] - Vistra Energy Retail achieved net organic growth of 15000 residential customers in ERCOT in 2018[14] Merger Value Levers - Synergy Adjusted EBITDA value levers achieved $290 million in 2018, reaching 100% of the run-rate value levers[16] - OPI Adjusted EBITDA value levers achieved $135 million in 2018, reaching 84% of the run-rate value levers[16] - After-tax, annual free cash flow value levers increased to $310 million[15], reflecting the February 2019 refinancing transaction[17] 2019 Guidance and Capital Allocation - 2019 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance is reaffirmed at $3220-$3420 million, with a 66% FCF conversion[18] - The company authorized a $175 billion share repurchase program, with $500 million executed from May-Oct 2018 and $437 million from Nov 2018-Feb 15 2019[19] - A quarterly dividend of approximately $0125/share was approved, resulting in an annual dividend of approximately $050/share[19] Crius Energy Acquisition - The Crius Energy acquisition is projected to be immediately accretive at 4x EV/EBITDA, with returns exceeding the investment threshold and >90% FCF conversion[14, 28] - Projected annual EBITDA synergies of $15 million and annual FCF synergies of $12 million are expected from the Crius acquisition[28] - The acquisition expands Vistra's Retail presence from 5 to 19 states and the District of Columbia, adding dual-energy market offerings[28]

Financial Performance - Vistra's 2019 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA was $3393 million[20], exceeding the revised guidance midpoint of $3370 million[40] - The company's 2019 Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth (FCFbG) was $2437 million[20], surpassing the guidance range of $2200-2300 million[23], with a FCF conversion rate of approximately 72%[20] - Vistra reaffirms its 2020 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $3285 - $3585 million and Adjusted FCFbG guidance of $2160 - $2460 million[22] - The company has identified nearly $15 billion of cost savings[15] Capital Allocation - Vistra returned nearly $5 billion to stakeholders in just over three years[14], including a $1000 million special dividend paid in December 2016[16], $2100 million in total debt paid as of December 31, 2019[16], $1418 million in share repurchases[16], and $243 million in 2019 dividends paid[16] - The company plans to allocate over $13 billion towards debt reduction in 2020[44] - As of February 24, 2020, $332 million remains available for share repurchases under the program[44], with approximately 60 million shares repurchased[44], and approximately 4877 million shares outstanding[44] - The board approved an 8% increase to the dividend, with a quarterly dividend of approximately $0135 per share, expected to result in an annual dividend of approximately $054 per share[44] Coal Exposure Reduction - Vistra is significantly reducing its coal exposure through plant retirements and investments in retail, gas, solar, and batteries[27] - The company expects to further reduce coal exposure over the next 10 years, investing approximately 25% of its free cash flow in retail and renewables, leading to an estimated EBITDA growth of approximately $90-100 million per year[31]

Vistra Corp. (VST) closed the most recent trading day at $190.40, moving +2.19% from the previous trading session. The stock's change was more than the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.8%. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.94%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 0.97%. The stock of company has risen by 14.76% in the past month, leading the Utilities sector's loss of 0.37% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.12%.Investors will be eagerly watching for the performance of Vistra Corp. in its upcoming earnings disclosure. On ...

Core Insights - The Zacks Utility - Electric Power industry presents a compelling investment opportunity due to stable cash flows and regulated business models [1] - Companies are transitioning towards clean energy, investing in solar, wind, battery storage, and grid modernization, which enhances their market appeal [2] - The Southern Company and Vistra Corp. are key players in this transition, focusing on renewable energy investments [2] Company Overview - The Southern Company provides stable long-term value through regulated operations and strategic clean energy investments, benefiting from a diversified generation mix and a strong customer base [3] - Vistra Energy is becoming a significant player in nuclear energy, bolstered by its acquisition of Energy Harbor and the establishment of Vistra Vision for zero-carbon power generation [4] Earnings Growth Projections - Vistra's earnings per share estimates for 2025 and 2026 have increased by 3.7% and 2.84% respectively, with a long-term growth projection of 13.18% [6] - The Southern Company's earnings per share estimate for 2025 has decreased by 0.23%, while the 2026 estimate has increased by 0.22%, with a long-term growth projection of 6.55% [8] Financial Metrics - Vistra's return on equity (ROE) is significantly higher at 87.03% compared to The Southern Company's 12.7% [9] - The dividend yield for Vistra is 0.48%, while The Southern Company's yield is 3.26%, both lower than the industry average of 3.27% [13] Sales Estimates - Vistra's sales estimates for 2025 and 2026 reflect year-over-year growth of 28.91% and 4.53% respectively [14] - The Southern Company's sales estimates for the same years show growth of 5.84% and 3.7% respectively [14] Debt and Valuation - Vistra's debt-to-capital ratio is 77.12%, higher than The Southern Company's 64.83%, with the industry average at 60.81% [17] - Vistra is trading at a premium with a Price/Earnings Forward 12-month ratio of 26.29X compared to The Southern Company's 20.44X and the industry's 15.29X [18] Conclusion - The Southern Company has a marginal edge over Vistra due to lower debt usage, cheaper valuation, and higher dividend yield, despite both companies holding a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [20]

Core Insights - Vistra Corp.'s disciplined hedging strategy is fundamental to its financial strength and operational stability, with nearly 100% of anticipated 2025 generation volumes and around 90% for 2026 hedged as of May 2, 2025 [1][8] - The hedging approach allows Vistra to secure steady revenues and predictable margins, minimizing downside risks and supporting consistent financial performance in a volatile market [2][4] - The company's hedging program provides short-term earnings visibility while allowing for upside exposure to potential market strength beyond the hedge horizon [3][4] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vistra's earnings per share indicates an increase of 2.81% for 2025 and 2.84% for 2026 over the past 60 days [7] - Vistra's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) stands at 87.33%, significantly higher than the industry average of 10.09%, indicating effective utilization of shareholders' funds [8][11] Market Position - Vistra's shares have increased by 108.2% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Utility-Electric Power industry's growth of 18.3%, attributed to strong retail and commercial operations [11]

Company Performance - Vistra Corp. closed at $185.10, with a daily increase of +2.19%, outperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.22% [1] - The stock has risen by 17.07% over the past month, contrasting with the Utilities sector's decline of 2.34% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.45% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Vistra Corp. is projected to report earnings of $1.34 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 48.89% [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $5.27 billion, indicating a 37.16% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $6.23 per share, a decrease of -11% from the previous year, while revenue is projected at $22.2 billion, an increase of +28.91% [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates are crucial as they reflect near-term business trends and analysts' confidence in performance [3] Zacks Rank and Valuation - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), indicates Vistra Corp. currently holds a rank of 3 (Hold) [5] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has increased by 5.88% over the last 30 days [5] - Vistra Corp. has a Forward P/E ratio of 29.07, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 17.71, and a PEG ratio of 2.21, compared to the industry average of 2.59 [6] Industry Context - The Utility - Electric Power industry is ranked 70 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the top 29% of over 250 industries [7] - Top-rated industries tend to outperform lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Vistra Corp. is strategically positioned to benefit from the clean energy transition, focusing on a diversified generation portfolio and investments in zero-carbon resources, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050 [1][9] Group 1: Clean Energy Transition - Vistra is replacing its aging fossil-fuel fleet with low-emission, long-duration assets, aligning with the U.S. clean energy trajectory, which reduces compliance risks and captures growth from new market opportunities [2] - The company has retired over 15,100 megawatts (MW) of fossil fuel-based generation since 2010 and plans to retire an additional 20,000 MW by 2027, while adding 7,922 MW of zero-carbon generation since 2018 [3][9] - Growth investments through 2026 are focused on solar and battery developments, enhancing efficiency in select gas assets, improving emissions profiles, and creating resilient earnings streams [4] Group 2: Market Position and Valuation - Vistra's shift toward clean energy enhances its earnings capacity and valuation potential, driven by rising demand for low-emission power due to electrification and environmental regulations [5] - Vistra shares have rallied 38.7% in the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Utility-Electric Power industry, which grew by 1.2% [11] - The company is currently trading at a premium valuation with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 25.91X, compared to the industry average of 15.06X [10]