ZAWYA新闻网9月29日报道，阿布扎比投资局（ADIA）旗下全资子公司成为中国医疗健康领域私 募股权公司——礼来资本（GL Capital）单一资产延续基金（CV）的主投方。该基金投资的是美国制药 公司再鼎医药（SciClone Pharmaceuticals）。ADIA未披露此次投资金额，但据估计，该基金价值约2.3 亿美元。ADIA私募股权部执行董事哈马德·阿勒达赫里表示，再鼎是世界领先企业，其壮大得益于中国 医疗健康行业的长期稳定发展。早在2017年，礼来资本曾牵头以6.05亿美元完成对再鼎的私有化收购。 此次延续基金的设立，使礼来资本在继续掌控再鼎的同时，推动公司进一步拓展运营。 （原标题：阿布扎比投资局旗下公司成为礼来资本医疗健康基金主投方） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump regarding a 100% tariff on all brand-name drugs starting in October is expected to have limited impact on the Chinese innovative drug industry chain, according to research from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - The new tariff policy does not apply to generic drugs, biosimilars, and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) [1] - Most Chinese innovative drugs that are exported either have production capacity built in the U.S. or are outsourced to local Contract Manufacturing Organizations (CMOs) [1] - The majority of exported products are APIs or raw herbal extracts, which are not affected by the new tariff, while the proportion of finished dosage forms exported is low [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The direct impact on CXO orders is limited in the short term, but changes in policy could affect the pace of factory construction by multinational corporations (MNCs) in the long term [1] - Upcoming catalysts include the ESMO conference scheduled for mid to late October and the results of medical insurance negotiations along with the first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog expected to be released in October-November [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump regarding a 100% tariff on all brand/patent drugs starting in October is expected to have limited impact on the Chinese innovative drug industry chain, according to research from CICC [1]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - Trump announced a 100% tariff on all brand/patent drugs unless manufacturers are building production facilities in the U.S. starting in October [1]. - The tariff does not apply to generic drugs, biosimilars, or active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) [1]. Group 2: Industry Analysis - CICC believes that most Chinese companies have either established production capacity in the U.S. or outsourced production to local Contract Manufacturing Organizations (CMOs) [1]. - The majority of Chinese innovative drugs exported are in the form of APIs or raw herbal extracts, which are not affected by the new tariff [1]. - The export ratio of finished dosage forms is low, and investments by multinational corporations (MNCs) in building factories will take time, leading to limited short-term impact on CXO orders [1]. Group 3: Future Catalysts - Upcoming catalysts include the ESMO conference scheduled for mid to late October [1]. - Results from medical insurance negotiations and the first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog are expected to be announced in October to November [1].

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices opened higher but showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down by 0.19% while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw slight increases [1] - Chinese concept stocks collectively rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increasing by over 2% at one point and closing up by 1.55% [2] Notable Stocks - Among the notable gainers, Pony.ai rose nearly 7%, while New Oriental, Xunlei, and Bilibili all increased by over 4% [2] - Specific stock performances include: - Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index at 8662.95, up 1.55% [3] - Pony.ai at 22.570, up 6.61% [3] - New Oriental at 53.850, up 4.87% [3] - Bilibili at 27.140, up 4.02% [4] Commodity Prices - Crude oil prices fell approximately 3.65%, reaching a low of $63.30 per barrel [4] - Spot gold prices rose about 1.8%, hitting a new historical high of $3832.75 per ounce [5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to reach a profitability inflection point due to its differentiated innovative pipeline and ongoing commercialization of its products [2][13]. - The company expects significant revenue growth, projecting revenues of $3.99 billion in 2024, $5.53 billion in 2025, $8.02 billion in 2026, and $12.03 billion in 2027, with a potential revenue of $2 billion by 2028 [2][5][11]. Summary by Sections Product Pipeline and Commercialization - The company has seven products approved for sale in China, including four oncology products, one immunology product, and two infectious disease products [2][27]. - The core products are experiencing strong sales growth, with a projected revenue increase of 50% year-over-year in 2024, driven by products like Weiwei Jia and Niu Zai Le [2][30]. - The company has submitted applications for new products, including KarXT and TF ADC, and anticipates further submissions for other products [2][12]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of $5.53 billion, $8.02 billion, and $12.03 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive by 2027 [5][11]. - The report indicates that the company will achieve non-GAAP operating profit by Q4 2025, supported by local production and increasing product sales [41]. Market Position and Valuation - The company's current stock price reflects a valuation of 7 times the 2025 price-to-sales ratio, compared to an average of 18 times for comparable companies, indicating attractive valuation [11]. - The target price is set at HKD 35.2, representing a 39% upside potential from the current price [5][11]. Key Product Highlights - Efgartigimod (艾加莫德) is expected to become a leading product in the autoimmune field, with significant sales growth projected due to new indications and formulations [3][12]. - ZL-1310 (DLL3 ADC) has shown promising clinical data and is expected to enter critical global studies [4][38]. - The company is actively expanding its global pipeline, focusing on ADCs and bispecific antibodies, with multiple products in various stages of clinical development [4][38].

Summary of China Biotech Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China biotech industry**, particularly the performance of H-share listed companies in this sector, which has seen significant growth year-to-date (YTD) [1][2][3]. Key Performance Metrics - The average H-share EV/2030e sales multiple in the China biotech space has more than **doubled from 2.0x to 4.2x** YTD, surpassing the previous peak of **3.7x** in 2021 [3][21]. - The overall market cap of H-share listed China biotech companies has expanded by **154% YTD**, compared to **34%** for the Hang Seng Index (HSI) [9][19]. Market Drivers - The valuation re-rating is attributed to the **globalization of China biotech**, with increasing recognition of domestic drug developers' innovations [3][20]. - Anticipated **Fed rate cuts** are expected to boost investor risk appetite, particularly towards growth sectors like China biotech [4][9]. Stock Performance Insights - Stock performance will depend on fundamentals such as successful commercial execution and rapid innovation development [5][19]. - Companies with near-term catalysts (e.g., Akeso, InnoCare), proof-of-concept data (e.g., Keymed), and those positioned to leverage innovation trends (e.g., Innovent, Duality) are expected to outperform [5][19]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include persistent valuation premiums that may deter overseas investors and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt cross-border innovation flows [6][19]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the sector will continue to be supported by the long-term thesis of **China drug innovation** becoming increasingly globalized [6][19]. - The expectation of higher valuations based on long-term forecasts (i.e., 2035e) could lead to further re-ratings across the sector [4][19]. Company-Specific Insights - **Abbisko Cayman Ltd**: Price target raised from **HK$8.30 to HK$22.00** [7][17]. - **Akeso, Inc.**: Price target increased from **HK$87.00 to HK$215.00** [7][17]. - **Duality Biotherapeutics Inc**: Price target raised from **HK$244.00 to HK$493.00** [7][17]. - **Everest Medicines Ltd**: Price target increased from **HK$40.00 to HK$55.00** [7][17]. - **HUTCHMED (China) Ltd**: Price target decreased from **US$18.00 to US$13.75** [7][17]. Valuation Trends - The report indicates a widening discount between Chinese biotech companies with in-house drug discovery capabilities and those relying on external sources [22][25]. - The current valuation band for the China biotech sector is approximately **3x-5x EV/sales**, aligning more closely with US biopharma companies [21][25]. Conclusion - The China biotech sector is at a pivotal inflection point, driven by domestic innovation and increasing global recognition. The anticipated Fed rate cuts and ongoing globalization trends are expected to further enhance the sector's attractiveness to investors [4][19][25].

Company Overview - Zai Lab Limited (ZLAB) is a Chinese pharmaceutical company with a market capitalization of $3.3 billion, experiencing revenue growth of over 40% [2] - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from China's aging population, with a significant increase in demand for medicines expected due to demographic shifts [2] Market Position and Strategy - ZLAB has secured licenses from leading U.S. and European pharmaceutical companies, granting it exclusive rights to distribute established drugs in China [2][3] - The Chinese government's regulation of drug pricing, which lowers prices as sales volumes increase, allows for continued volume growth across a large population, particularly among the 300 million individuals over 60 years old [3] Financial Performance - ZLAB's revenues are projected to grow from $145 million in 2021 to an estimated $900 million in the next year, indicating strong compounding growth potential [4] - Despite not appearing cheap on conventional value metrics, ZLAB is viewed as a long-term winner in the Chinese healthcare market, with potential to become a $30 billion pharmaceutical leader [4] Investment Potential - The company is seen as a 10-15x investment opportunity over time, driven by strong structural tailwinds in the healthcare sector [4] - ZLAB's focus on growth opportunities in the Chinese market and its licensing strategy aligns with trends observed in other successful pharmaceutical companies [5]

Core Viewpoint - After a significant drop, Hong Kong's innovative drug concept stocks rebounded across the board, indicating market resilience and potential recovery in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, Kangning Jereh Pharmaceutical-B surged over 14%, Hutchison China MediTech rose more than 6%, Zai Lab and Lepu Biopharma B increased over 5%, and Akeso-B climbed over 4% [1] Group 2: Industry Sentiment - Several pharmaceutical companies have acknowledged rumors regarding potential restrictions from the U.S. on innovative drugs from China, but they believe these rumors do not currently impact the expectations for Chinese innovative drugs entering international markets [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Market analysts predict that leading biotech companies such as BeiGene and Innovent Biologics are expected to reach a profitability inflection point by 2025, with a strong growth trajectory anticipated thereafter [1] - With improvements in industrial capabilities and product line expansions, it is expected that more biotech firms will enter a profitability cycle in the future [1]

Group 1 - Chinese pharmaceutical stocks rebounded on Thursday, with Zai Lab (ZLAB.US) rising over 14% to $32.5, BeiGene (ONC.US) up over 6% to $333.25, Hutchison China MediTech (HCM.US) increasing over 3.5% to $16.265, and Legend Biotech (LEGN.US) gaining over 2% to $34.14 [1] - Goldman Sachs reported that the Trump administration is discussing restrictions on Chinese pharmaceuticals and drafting an executive order aimed at limiting the entry of innovative Chinese drugs into the U.S. market [1] - The potential short-term stock price risk is expected to have a limited impact on companies like BeiGene and Legend Biotech, which have established a solid foundation in the U.S. and other markets, with low expectations for new transactions [1]

Group 1 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw an intraday increase of 2% [1] - Notable gains among popular Chinese concept stocks include Century Internet rising by 16.4%, Zai Lab rebounding by 11.6%, and Global Data increasing by 7.8% [1] - Alibaba and NIO also experienced positive movements, with increases of 4.7% and 4.2% respectively [1] Group 2 - Significant stock price surges were observed in other companies, with Mogu Street soaring by 124%, EDHL rising by 28%, and Global Mofei increasing by 25% [1] - Additional notable increases include Tiancheng Technology at 20%, Newegg at 12.5%, and Wunong Network at 9.7% [1]