| | 国泰君安证券 | | --- | --- | | | GUOTAI JUNAN SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告回放（2025-03-11 09:00——2025-03-12 15:00） 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报：基础化工《重点化工品价格每日跟踪数据库》2025-03-12 | 2 | |  | 行业更新：家用电器业《平台费率正优化，小家电利润率有望改善》2025-03-12 | 2 | |  | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报：石油《石化行业数据跟踪 20250311》2025-03-12 | 3 | |  | 行业日报/周报/双周报/月报：有色金属《有色金属周度数据库》2025-03-12 | 3 | |  | 行业更新：白酒制造《白酒：重视绝对价值机会》2025-03-12 | 4 | |  | 行业事件快评：军工《需求目标指引明确，装备建设有望加速》2025-03-11 | 4 | |  | 行业事件快评：机器人《智元发布首个通用具身基座大模型 GO-1》2025-03-11 | 5 | |  ...

——爱婴室首次覆盖报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.12 深耕母婴零售，拓展高达基地 爱婴室(603214) 公 司 首 | | | | [Table_Invest] | 首次覆盖 | | --- | --- | | 评级 | 增持 | | 目标价格 | 28.00 | | Table_CurPrice] [当前价格： | 19.10 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间（元） | 9.95-24.96 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | 2,646 | | 总股本/流通A股（百万股） | 139/139 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万股） | 0/0 | [Table_Balance] 资产负债表摘要(LF) | 股东权益（百万元） | 1,097 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.92 | | 市净率（现价） | 2.4 | | 净负债率 | -2.88% | [Table_PicQuote] 52周股价走势图 -19% 6% 31% 55% 80% 105% 2024-03 2024-07 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [15][16]. Core Insights - The report discusses the recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield dropping from approximately 4.8% at the beginning of the year to around 4.3% [9][11]. - The "Trump trade" is experiencing a cooling off, similar to the trend observed in 2017, driven by slow implementation of tariff policies and weakening economic indicators in the U.S. [9][12]. - Positive carry is highlighted as a significant factor driving the strength of long-term bonds, providing a protective cushion in a volatile market environment [11][13]. Summary by Sections U.S. Treasury Yields - The report notes a rapid decline in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, which has decreased significantly despite rising inflation indicators [9][11]. - The market's focus on purchasing long-term U.S. Treasuries is emphasized as a safe trading strategy [11]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe suggests that the dollar's strength may not have reached its peak yet [12][14]. - The report also mentions that the market's reaction to clear directional signals often results in lower trading value, while positive carry trades can accumulate small victories into larger gains [13]. Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - The report suggests that the narrowing of the U.S.-Euro interest rate differential may lead to a stronger euro, indicating ongoing dynamics in the forex market [12][14]. - It is noted that the market's expectations for the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts have remained stable despite the changes in U.S. rates [12].

[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 2025年3月5日 詹春立 张潇子骄 +852 2509 7745 +852 2509 5317 james.zhan@gtjas.com.hk hunter.zhang@gtjas.com.hk [Table_Summary] FICC 策略：倒挂再现，衰退几何？ 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 3个月 1年 2年 3年 5年 7年 10年 % 4/3/2025 3/2/2025 美债收益率曲线逐步变平至倒挂 资料来源： iFind ，国泰君安国际。 海 外 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 5 美债二次筑顶已经结束。十年期美债从 1 月中旬接近 4.8%的高位大幅回落至近期 4.2% 左右，完成了特朗普自选举成功后的"二次筑顶"。这印证了我们此前在一月初的判 断，彼时市场"再通胀交易"蔚然成风，加之 1 月经济基本面数据不弱，所以美债利率 水平持续走高。但我们当时认为更可能的情景是，关税力度大致符合或略强于预期，但 美联储政策受到掣肘，降息幅度并不像 ...

[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 2025年2月19日 | [Table_Summary] FICC | 策略：打破常规叙事，欧元为何上涨？ | | | james.zhan@gtjas.com.hk | 詹春立 +852 2509 7745 | 张潇子骄 +852 2509 5317 hunter.zhang@gtjas.com.hk | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 在"美欧分歧"和"美国通胀再起"叙事逻辑下，欧元逆势走强 | | | | | | | 1.06 | | | | | | | | 1.05 | | | | | | | | 1.04 | | | | | | | | 1.03 | | | | | | | | 1.02 | | | | | | | | 1.01 | | | | | | | | 1.00 25-01 | 25-01 欧元兑美元汇率 | 25-01 | 25-01 | 25-01 | 25-02 | 25-02 | 资料来源： Wind ，国泰君安国际。 海 外 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the automotive sector [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that some car purchase demand was released ahead of the Spring Festival, and the "trade-in" policy will continue to support sales in 2025 [11]. - In January 2025, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles in China were approximately 1.79 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 31.9% [11]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 41.5% in January 2025, up 8.7 percentage points year-on-year [11]. - The report highlights that the domestic market for NEVs is expected to capture a larger share of the fuel vehicle market, with a projected penetration rate of 50%-55% by 2025 [14]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - In January 2025, the dealer inventory warning index reached 62.3, the highest level in nearly seven years, indicating a decline in market activity [15]. - The wholesale sales of NEVs in January 2025 were approximately 890,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.8% [11]. Key Players and Recommendations - The report recommends several leading companies in the automotive sector, including Great Wall Motors (02333 HK), Geely Automobile (00175 HK), BYD (01211 HK), Li Auto (02015 HK), Xpeng Motors (09868 HK), and Leapmotor (09863 HK) for their strong performance and rapid transition to new energy [16]. - For the heavy truck segment, it recommends China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (03808 HK) and Weichai Power (02338 HK) [22]. Export Trends - NEV exports accounted for 36.6% of total exports in January 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8 percentage points [11]. - The total export volume in January 2025 was 380,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [11]. Component Sector - The report continues to recommend companies like Nidec (01316 HK) and Minth Group (00425 HK) in the components sector, highlighting their potential growth driven by the recovery of the domestic automotive industry and gradual improvement in overseas sales [24][25].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of HKD 5.00 [1][10]. Core Views - The company possesses excellent wind power asset resources, and the profitability of its existing and newly commissioned wind power units is expected to exceed expectations due to favorable policies in the main installation areas [3][10]. - The market perceives that the company's wind power assets lack unique competitive advantages, but the report argues that the company's wind power projects have significant advantages in utilization hours and stable on-grid electricity prices [11][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 219 billion in 2024 to RMB 304 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8% to 13.5% [13]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 0.48, RMB 0.66, and RMB 0.72 respectively [13][49]. Wind Power Asset Quality - The company’s wind power assets are primarily located in Hebei Province, with a total operational capacity of 636,000 kW, accounting for 98.1% of its total operational capacity [51]. - The average utilization hours for the company’s wind power projects from 2019 to 2023 were 2,459 hours, significantly higher than the provincial and national averages [59][11]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a strong cash flow, with a projected dividend per share (DPS) of RMB 0.26 for 2025, corresponding to a dividend yield of 7.9% based on the current stock price [49][42]. - The company has consistently increased its dividend payout ratio, reaching 40.8% in 2023 [42][48]. Natural Gas Business - The company’s natural gas sales are expected to grow significantly, with projected sales volumes of 51.6 billion cubic meters in 2024, increasing to 74.5 billion cubic meters by 2026 [13]. - The natural gas segment has shown robust growth, contributing to the overall revenue increase [27]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a key player in the clean energy sector in Hebei, focusing on wind and natural gas operations while planning to divest its solar assets [25][21]. - The company benefits from the support of the Hebei provincial government and has a strong market presence in the region [23][21].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.03.11 平台费率正优化，小家电利润率有望改善 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) 樊夏俐(分析师) 李汉颖(分析师) 021-38031654 021-38676666 010-83939833 caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com fanxiali@gtjas.com lihanying026725@gtjas.com 本报告导读： 对电商平台内卷行为的监管趋严有望大幅度改善小家电企业的费用率水平，从而提 升其盈利能力，增持。 投资要点： 家用电器业《3000 亿特别国债支持以旧换新，楼 市回稳奠基》2025.03.09 家用电器业《楼市健康发展奠基，国补拉动内销 稳增》2025.03.06 家用电器业《厨电告别成长股模式，转型价值股 新征程》2025.03.04 家用电器业《楼市企稳厨电受益，周度零售数据 强改善》2025.03.02 家用电器业《Neo gamma 问世，开启机 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][30]. Core Insights - The company focuses on lung cancer treatment, with its core product, Furmetinib, experiencing rapid growth. It targets rare EGFR mutations and expands into overseas markets. The pipeline is rich, and the company continues to enhance its presence in the lung cancer sector [3][19]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 3.17, 3.87, and 4.72 yuan, respectively. The target price is set at 104.74 yuan based on absolute and relative valuation methods [3][30]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 791 million yuan in 2022 to 5,618 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.2% to 21.9% [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 131 million yuan in 2022 to 2,125 million yuan in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 614.2% in 2023 [5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 268.92 in 2022 to 16.52 in 2026, indicating improving profitability [5]. Product and Market Positioning - Furmetinib is positioned as a potential best-in-class EGFR-TKI, with significant advantages in efficacy and safety, particularly for patients with brain metastases. The product has shown rapid market uptake since its launch [3][19]. - The company is expanding its focus on rare EGFR mutations, with ongoing clinical trials for Exon20ins and PACC mutations, aiming for global market penetration [3][19]. Pipeline Development - The company has a diverse pipeline, including partnerships for the development of RET inhibitors and KRAS inhibitors, which are expected to enhance its competitive positioning in the lung cancer treatment market [3][19][38]. - The collaboration with ArriVent for global expansion of Furmetinib's indications is a strategic move to capture a larger market share [3][19].

规模效应助力全年盈利，机器人雷达快速放量 禾赛(HSAI.O) 登记编号 S0880523110003 本报告导读： 盈利能力大超预期。智驾平权快速推进，ADAS 雷达下探至 10 万级别车型，ATX 系列加速渗透；机器人雷达快速放量，开启第二增长曲线。 投资要点： [Table_PicQuote] -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 2024-03-11 2024-04-01 2024-04-19 2024-05-09 2024-05-30 2024-06-20 2024-07-11 2024-07-31 2024-08-20 2024-09-10 2024-09-30 2024-10-18 2024-11-07 2024-11-27 2024-12-18 2025-01-10 2025-01-31 2025-02-21 52周股价走势图 HSAI 纳斯达克综指 ——禾赛科技 FY24Q4 业绩点评 [Table_Industry] 海外信息科技 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [table_Authors] 秦和平(分析师) | | | | --- | ...