1 准确认识超常规逆周期调节 把握全方位扩内需政策 联合资信 研究中心 中共中央政治局 12 月 9 日召开会议，分析研究 2025 年经济工作。会议强调， 实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充实完善政策工具箱，加强超 常规逆周期调节，打好政策"组合拳"，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性。 会议指出了 2025 年的 9 项工作重点，将"全方位扩大国内需求"放在首要位置， 突出直面内需不足的核心矛盾。年末政治局会议是对明年经济工作定总调子，此次 会议紧跟经济增速在三季度出现回落时突显的新情况、新问题，总结"两重"、"两 新"的工作经验，前瞻性应对外部冲击，将宏观调控总基调在 2024 年基础上做出 重大调整，进一步拿出真金白银提振信心，而消费是明年工作的首要抓手。下面， 重点研判 2025 年的财政、货币和扩内需的政策走向。 第一，从"积极"到"更加积极"预示中央财政赤字进一步提高，或超过 4%， 超长期特别国债进一步加码。化解地方政府隐性债务的 10 万亿政策工具已经推出， 此次会议强调的政策增量更多是针对中央财政空间。2023 年在发行"两重"超长 期特别国债的背景下，中央财政赤字实际提高到 ...

盈尺"储"瑞，载涂"兆"丰 ——新型储能对新能源发电企业的影响浅析 联合资信 工商评级三部 近年来，我国新能源装机容量迅猛扩张，为缓和电网输配电稳定性压力以及新能源限电严重 问题，政策导向逐步加强对储能建设要求，但由于储能市场交易制度及充放电调度落实等方面仍 存在欠缺，当前储能单体项目仍处于亏损状态，即目前配储指标单向增加新能源发电企业建设成 本。 长远看，在可以完全参与市场交易、充分接受电网调度的基础上，新型配储项目将有助于减 少新能源项目弃电量、提升整体新能源项目发电量（储能项目被调用）或变相推高该项目上网电 价（储能项目产生正收益）；独立储能项目也可通过峰谷价差、容量租赁和容量补偿产生正收益。 "配有有效储能"可以一定程度降低新能源发电企业的信用风险。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、 新型电力系统下新型储能的意义 自提出"双碳"政策以来，我国能源结构转型步伐加快，以"风光"为代表的可 再生能源发电装机规模呈快速增长态势。根据国家能源局数据统计，截至 2023 年底， 我国太阳能发电和风电装机容量分别同比增长 55.2%和 20.7%至 6.1 亿千瓦和 4.4 亿 千瓦，装机增速 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the cement industry, with expectations of continued pressure on profitability and potential for further capacity reduction policies by 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights - Cement demand remains weak in 2024, exacerbated by a downturn in the real estate market and slowing infrastructure investment, leading to a significant drop in cement production [3][5]. - The industry is experiencing structural overcapacity, with a notable decline in cement prices despite some recovery since September 2024, influenced by supply-side measures [1][9]. - The report highlights the ongoing challenges posed by high coal prices and the impact of environmental regulations under the "dual carbon" goals, which are expected to further constrain supply and profitability [1][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Cement Industry Operations - The real estate market is in a bottom adjustment phase, with a 22.6% year-on-year decline in new housing starts from January to October 2024, contributing to weak cement demand [3]. - National cement production reached 1.501 billion tons from January to October 2024, the lowest since 2010, reflecting a 10.3% year-on-year decrease [5][6]. 2. Cement Price Performance - Cement prices have shown some recovery since April 2024, entering a growth phase in September, but remain low compared to previous years [9][15]. - Regional price variations are significant, with the Northeast and East China regions experiencing earlier price recoveries [16]. 3. Industry Profitability - The cement industry is facing increasing losses, with a 62.42% year-on-year decline in total profits reported by major listed companies in 2024 [17]. - The proportion of loss-making companies has increased, with 36% of firms reporting losses, indicating a worsening financial outlook for the sector [17]. 4. Policy Dynamics - The report discusses the normalization of staggered production policies aimed at addressing short-term supply-demand imbalances, with many regions extending their production halts [19][21]. - The "dual carbon" and "dual control" policies are tightening capacity replacement requirements, which may help alleviate overcapacity issues in the long term [26][33]. 5. Real Estate Market Impact - Despite the introduction of various easing policies, the real estate market remains weak, with ongoing inventory pressures and a slow recovery in demand expected [36].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the real estate industry, suggesting that the current downtrend may continue, with potential for stabilization in the near future [1][9]. Core Insights - The real estate market in China has experienced four distinct cycles over the past two decades, with the current cycle beginning in March 2015 and characterized by a prolonged downturn [9][12]. - The report highlights that the current cycle's downtrend has been significantly longer and more severe compared to previous cycles, with sales volume and prices showing signs of instability [1][9]. - Recent data suggests a potential turning point, with improvements in sales area growth and stabilization in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities as of October 2024 [1][9][80]. Summary by Sections 1. Housing Policy Development - The evolution of housing policies in China has transitioned from a focus on public housing to a market-oriented approach since the late 1990s, with significant reforms aimed at stabilizing the housing market [3][4][6]. - The introduction of the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy in 2016 marked a pivotal shift in the government's approach to real estate, emphasizing the need for a balanced housing supply and demand [6][9]. 2. Domestic Real Estate Cycle Classification - The report categorizes the real estate market into four cycles based on cumulative sales area growth, with the current cycle being the longest and most challenging [9][10]. - The first three cycles lasted approximately three years each, while the current cycle has extended beyond nine years, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [9][12]. 3. Sales and Price Trends - Sales volume peaked in 2021, with a notable increase in both sales area and monetary value, but has since faced substantial declines, particularly in early 2024 [62][63]. - The report notes that housing prices in first-tier cities have shown a more pronounced fluctuation compared to second and third-tier cities, with a delayed response in price adjustments following changes in sales volume [63][64]. 4. Inventory and Debt Issues - The report highlights a concerning trend of increasing inventory levels, particularly during the current cycle, which has led to a prolonged period of adjustment and debt defaults among real estate companies [70][71]. - The financialization of the real estate sector has resulted in high leverage and vulnerability among developers, leading to widespread defaults and a credit crisis that has affected both small and large firms [70][71]. 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while there are signs of potential recovery, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to demographic shifts, economic pressures, and the need for structural reforms in the housing market [80].

盈尺"储"瑞，载涂"兆"丰 ——新型储能对新能源发电企业的影响浅析 联合资信 工商评级三部 近年来，我国新能源装机容量迅猛扩张，为缓和电网输配电稳定性压力以及新能源限电严重 问题，政策导向逐步加强对储能建设要求，但由于储能市场交易制度及充放电调度落实等方面仍 存在欠缺，当前储能单体项目仍处于亏损状态，即目前配储指标单向增加新能源发电企业建设成 本。 长远看，在可以完全参与市场交易、充分接受电网调度的基础上，新型配储项目将有助于减 少新能源项目弃电量、提升整体新能源项目发电量（储能项目被调用）或变相推高该项目上网电 价（储能项目产生正收益）；独立储能项目也可通过峰谷价差、容量租赁和容量补偿产生正收益。 "配有有效储能"可以一定程度降低新能源发电企业的信用风险。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、 新型电力系统下新型储能的意义 自提出"双碳"政策以来，我国能源结构转型步伐加快，以"风光"为代表的可 再生能源发电装机规模呈快速增长态势。根据国家能源局数据统计，截至 2023 年底， 我国太阳能发电和风电装机容量分别同比增长 55.2%和 20.7%至 6.1 亿千瓦和 4.4 亿 千瓦，装机增速 ...

会议要点 1、宏观政策 政策取向积极：包括前几天的政治局会议和中央经济工作会议，政策取向积极，要求宏观政 策更加积极有为，把握稳中求进的工作基调，明年 GDP 增长目标可能在 5%左右，要求实现 经济稳中向好，就业、物价保持稳定。 超常规逆周期政策：提出超常规的逆周期政策，政策力度加大，可能有新的政策工具，货币 政策从稳健趋向变为适度宽松，上一次货币政策转向发生在 2008 年，此次货币政策转向对 市场影响较大，明年货币政策可能较为积极。 2、财政政策 赤字率和国债：中央经济工作会议要求一般公共预算的赤字率提高，可能在 3.5 到 4 之间， 接近上限，明年一般预算的赤字会达到 5 万多亿，特别国债可能从今年的 1 万亿增加到 2 万亿。 地方专项债：地方专项债今年是 3.9 万亿，明年可能会达到 4.5 万亿以上。 财政政策方向：关注财政政策量的扩张和方向性变化，会向民生方面加大力度，补贴范围可 能扩大，包括手机、平板电脑等，同时关注对中低收入群体的转移支付和生育补贴等，财政 政策正在转向。 3、货币政策 适度宽松：明确提出适度宽松的货币政策，金融会议新闻稿也明确讲了要适时降息降准，保 持市场流动性充裕，央 ...

更详细的分析那么首先呢我们此前一直强调包括就是开了一系列电话会议是吧包括在市场十月中旬大家不要悲观的时候我们明确强调年底的政治会议和中央金融会议将在预期管理等方面呈现出一个表述非常积极的特点那么这是驱动明年上半年最重要的行情就税贸联储行情的这样一个核心因素 那么所以我们也是坚定的在叹此事 是吧就是说最末年初的总政治会议中央中央会议行情在前两周已经明确启动了我们坚定看好12月份开始到春节前后的这一波行情 是吧那今天年底的政治会议召开你自己表述是符合我们此前的预期的那么爱尔米亚和港股也是出现了快速拉升 我们将从如下几个方面理性的看待这一会议以及更重要的就今天召开了一个更重要的党安宣传会这也是大英辽总书记亲自过去的那么首先我们说一下这几个问题第一个政策总体的基调跟九月份相比有什么变化我们可以说明确这次会议就跟之前的所有的官位一样相对九月份的整个政策基调来说是明显的更加自信了九月份的政治会议我们强调的是什么强调努力完成目标 那么这次在党外集团会上领导明确强调今年的社会发展主要目标任务将顺利完成做好民营经济工作首先是要坚定必须的信心这些都说明相对九月当前政策的信心是显著增强的那么第二点就是说总量政策定理有没有变化有没有 ...

感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后 大家好欢迎参加中信剑头大消费联合电话会议目前所有参会者身体平静状态下面开始布报免责声明声明布布完毕后主持人可直接发言风险提示及免责声明一本次会议为中信剑头研究发展部组织的闭门会议请面向中信剑头把名单客户参加会议的投资者不得制作会议纪要包括在不限于文字纪要录音录像截屏等形式 并对外转发给任何其他个人或机构擅自制作编辑及转发会议纪要引起不当传播的中性箭头有权追究其法律责任 本次会议内容在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议且中性箭头不承诺不保障所含具有预测性质的内容必然得以实现敬请会议参加者充分了解各类投资风险根据自身情况自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险三 本次会议包含信息均来源于中信箭头认为可靠的公开资料但中信箭头对这些信息的准确性时效性以及完整性不做任何保证本次会议如涉及专家分享该专家分享仅代表专家个人观点不代表中信箭头立场 在法律法规及监管规定允许的范围内中信建投可能持有并交易本次会议所提及公司的股份或其他财产权益也可能在过去目前或者将来为所提及公司提供或者争取为其提供投资银行做市交易财务顾问或其他金融服务 5.本次会议内容的知识产权仅为中信线头所有未经中信线头 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the US real estate market or the Chinese real estate market [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The US real estate market has experienced long-term prosperity driven by factors such as population growth, economic growth, and financial liberalization, with significant fluctuations during the 1982-2012 period due to technological advancements and financial crises [3][25][66] - Post-crisis, the US real estate market has stabilized with a focus on existing home transactions and operations, indicating a mature market structure [3][39] - The Chinese real estate market is transitioning from a new home-dominated market to a market where both new and existing homes coexist, with urbanization still having room for growth [104][105] US Real Estate Development History - The US real estate market can be divided into three phases: post-war boom to crisis (1946-1981), new economic bubble and burst (1982-2012), and post-crisis era (2013-present) [3][5][25] - The post-war boom was driven by population growth, manufacturing development, and government housing policies, while the 1982-2012 period saw significant price fluctuations due to technological advancements and financial crises [5][25][33] - The post-crisis era has seen a recovery in housing prices, but demand growth has slowed, with the market shifting towards existing home transactions [39][66] US Real Estate Market Characteristics - The US real estate market is characterized by a developed mortgage finance system, with a primary market for mortgage issuance and a secondary market for mortgage securitization [46][48] - The market is dominated by private land ownership, with 60.9% of land privately owned, and a focus on existing home transactions, which account for over 85% of sales [54][58] - The US real estate market has a strong consumption attribute, with housing services contributing significantly to GDP, and a lower investment attribute compared to the stock market [67][70] US Real Estate Market Competition - The US real estate market is highly competitive, with a focus on existing home transactions and a mature industry structure [81][89] - Major real estate companies in the US include large developers like D.R. Horton, Lennar, and PulteGroup, which dominate the new home market, while independent real estate agents handle the majority of existing home sales [90][91] - The market is characterized by high specialization and low concentration, with many small and medium-sized developers operating in regional markets [90][91] Implications for China's Real Estate Market - China's real estate market is transitioning from a new home-dominated market to a market where both new and existing homes coexist, with urbanization still having room for growth [104][105] - The US experience suggests that China should focus on developing the secondary mortgage market, improving housing quality, and promoting professionalization and specialization in the real estate industry [105][106] - The US market also highlights the importance of reducing financial leverage and transitioning to a lighter asset model to enhance risk resistance [110] Future Trends in China's Real Estate Market - The Chinese real estate market is expected to see a shift towards existing home transactions, with a focus on improving housing quality and professionalization [105][106] - The market may also see increased consolidation, with large developers dominating the market while smaller, specialized developers remain competitive in niche markets [109] - The industry may transition towards a lighter asset model, with a focus on reducing financial leverage and improving operational efficiency [110]

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 《银团贷款业务管理办法》 的解读 联合资信 金融评级一部 | 刘敏哲 联合资信评估股份有限公司 China Lianhe Credit Rating Co.,Ltd. 深化金融监管与服务实体经济—《银团贷款业务管理办法》 的解读 作者：金融评级一部 刘敏哲 为了进一步优化和完善银团贷款业务的管理和监管，推动银团贷款业务规范健康 发展，近日，国家金融监督管理总局发布了《银团贷款业务管理办法》（以下简称《办 法》）。《办法》明确了监管导向，要求银行在开展银团贷款业务时，要更好地支持实 体经济的发展，同时有效防范和化解风险。办法丰富了银团筹组模式，优化了分销比 例和二级市场转让规则，提升了开展银团贷款业务的便利性。此外，该办法还进一步 完善了银团定价机制，规范了银团收费的原则和方式，并对银团贷款管理提出了更为 系统化的要求。《办法》的实施，体现了监管部门"问题导向、守正创新、统筹兼顾" 的原则，能够有效推动银行在为经济社会发展提供高质量金融供给的同时，强化同业 合作、有效防范化解信用风险。 一、政策出台背景 《办法》正式实施前，在中国境内依法设立并经营贷款业务的银行 ...