Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - Under the guidance of the central government's three - dimensional policy system of "stock debt resolution + incremental debt standardization + innovation empowerment", Jiangsu Province has introduced supporting policies to support the transformation and development of urban investment and industrial investment entities. The new bond - issuing market of these entities in Jiangsu shows distinct structural characteristics. In the future, the differentiation between urban investment and industrial investment entities will intensify, with truly transformed entities having financing advantages and those relying on government credit facing pressure [3][4][40] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Introduction - Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the central government has introduced debt management policies to set boundaries and directions for the financing of urban investment and industrial investment entities. Jiangsu Province has introduced supporting policies to support the transformation of relevant entities, and its strong industrial foundation provides support for transformation - related bond issuance [6] - The report analyzes the new bond - issuing situation of urban investment and industrial investment entities in Jiangsu from October 1, 2024, to September 30, 2025, to provide reference for relevant entities in financing path planning [7] Core Characteristics of Newly Issued Bonds of Urban Investment and Industrial Investment Enterprises in Jiangsu Province Sample Subject Characteristics - In terms of administrative level, newly - issued bond entities show a "municipal - level leading, district - county - level following" pattern. Among 34 new bond - issuing entities, 18 are municipal - level platforms (52.94%), and district - county and park - level platforms account for nearly half (44.12%), indicating initial marketization transformation achievements in some areas [9][10] - In terms of credit rating, the overall credit rating of sample enterprises is high. The proportion of AA+ and above high - grade issuers is 79.41%, higher than the national average (74.73%). Provincial and some core municipal - level platforms are mainly AAA - rated, while district - county - level platforms are concentrated in AA+ and AA levels [11] - In terms of enterprise characteristics, under the policy guidance, new bond - issuing entities are structurally differentiated, with the characteristics of "strong industrial attributes + policy labels". Among the 20 entities with available data, the proportion of people's livelihood service - type entities is 70.00%, and that of industrial park - type entities is 15.00% [14] - In terms of financial characteristics, after excluding outliers, for 20 sample entities with available data, the average proportion of urban construction - related assets in total assets is about 36%, the average proportion of urban construction - related income in total operating income is about 16%, and the average proportion of fiscal subsidies in net profit is about 36%. The latter two meet the "335" principle, but the former does not [18] Sample Bond Characteristics - In terms of bond variety structure, private placement corporate bonds dominate, accounting for 43.06% of 72 sample bonds. Some high - credit - rating entities issue bonds across markets. Enterprise bonds account for only 4, and all funds are invested in project construction [19] - In terms of fund use, debt repayment is the core direction, but different trading venues have different characteristics. In the inter - bank market, debt repayment accounts for 61.27% of the new bond issuance scale, and project construction accounts for 33.88%. In the exchange market, debt repayment is also the main use, but the use combination in the exchange market is more diverse, and the proportion of non - pure debt - repayment uses in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is higher than that in the Shanghai Stock Exchange [21][25][27] - Among labeled bonds, green bonds are important. During the observation period, 34 new bond - issuing entities issued 13 green bonds with a scale of 8.805 billion yuan. Entities with people's livelihood attributes and strong industrial - attribute industrial park - type entities are more likely to issue labeled bonds [29] Typical Case Analysis Case 1: An Operating Entity of a National High - tech Zone in Suzhou - Business layout: It constructs a diversified business ecosystem with a full - chain market - oriented operation system in the industrial park and a market - oriented investment structure in strategic emerging industries, with remarkable transformation results [31] - Financial performance: Market - oriented business drives the company's profit, with the proportion of market - oriented business income in revenue exceeding 60%, and investment income contributing significantly to profit [32] - Financing practice: In 2025, it issued over 10 billion yuan of bonds. The green medium - term notes are invested in projects that can bring long - term stable income and optimize the debt structure, achieving a virtuous cycle between financing and business development [32][33] Case 2: An Investment and Operating Entity in Kunshan - Business layout: It focuses on the investment in high - tech projects in core fields through its equity investment business in the quasi - financial sector, with a clear layout in science and technology innovation business [34] - Financial performance: The proportion of urban investment - related assets is low, and fiscal subsidies and investment income contribute significantly to profit [35] - Financing practice: From December 2024 to June 2025, it issued 400 million yuan of science and technology innovation corporate bonds, and the funds are mainly used for science and technology innovation - related investments, matching the policy requirements [36] Practical Suggestions for New Bond Issuance - Deepen the market - oriented business layout, focus on policy - supported areas, and reduce dependence on government subsidies, referring to the experience of the Suzhou high - tech zone operating entity [38] - Strengthen regional resource integration, and district - county and park - level platforms can seek support from local governments [38] - Adapt to market characteristics, choose financing tools and issuance venues flexibly. Private placement corporate bonds can be the core choice, and high - credit - rating entities can try inter - bank varieties or cross - market issuance [38] - Follow the principle of "strong industrial attributes + policy labels", and different types of entities should take corresponding measures to improve policy fit and financing adaptability [39] - Actively connect with labeled bond policies, and entities in relevant fields can apply for corresponding labeled bonds to enhance financing competitiveness [39] Conclusion - The new bond - issuing market of urban investment and industrial investment entities in Jiangsu shows structural characteristics at both the subject and bond levels. The core logic of the typical cases is that business transformation conforms to policy orientation and financing planning matches market rules [40] - In the future, entities need to strengthen market - oriented transformation, choose appropriate financing tools, and connect with policy support to achieve a virtuous cycle between financing and business [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a need for "capacity restructuring" in the chlor-alkali chemical industry due to significant supply-demand imbalances, particularly in PVC products [2][31]. Core Insights - The core conclusion of the report is that in an optimistic scenario, there will be a substantial supply shortage of caustic soda, while the supply-demand gap for PVC will be relatively small. In a pessimistic scenario, caustic soda will experience a slight oversupply, and PVC will continue to face significant oversupply [2][28][31]. Industry Background - The chlor-alkali chemical industry primarily produces caustic soda (sodium hydroxide) and PVC (polyvinyl chloride), with China being the largest global producer, accounting for approximately 40% of caustic soda and 45% of PVC production [4][6]. - The industry has undergone significant cyclical changes over the past decade, influenced by factors such as supply-side reforms, environmental regulations, and the COVID-19 pandemic [6][9]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The report forecasts the supply-demand relationship for caustic soda and PVC from 2026 to 2028 under different market scenarios. In the optimistic scenario, the annual supply gap for caustic soda will be 295,000 tons, 549,000 tons, and 813,000 tons over the three years, respectively. In the pessimistic scenario, there will be an oversupply of 28,000 tons, 59,000 tons, and 93,000 tons [23][28]. Current Supply and Demand Issues - The chlor-alkali industry faces significant challenges, including supply-demand imbalances, operational difficulties for enterprises, structural contradictions, and increasing environmental pressures. The demand for PVC is heavily tied to the real estate sector, which has been experiencing a downturn [17][31]. - As of 2024, the domestic caustic soda capacity is projected to be around 50 million tons, with a production of approximately 41 million tons, while PVC capacity is expected to be about 29 million tons, with a production of around 22 million tons [16][17]. Future Projections - The report emphasizes the urgent need for the industry to address the "alkali-chlorine balance" structural issue and accelerate the implementation of the "capacity restructuring" strategy to enhance competitiveness and achieve sustainable development [32].

机场行业 2026 年度信用风险展望（2025 年 11 月） 公用评级三部 丨 张晨 2019－2024 年旅客吞吐量情况（单位：亿人次） 2019－2024 年货邮吞吐量及起降架次情况 （单位：万吨、万架次） 行业样本企业 2022－2024 年现金流情况 32.24 94.51 232.10 493.00 357.72 376.67 -200.00 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 亿 元 -508.59 -577.82 -800.00 2022年 2023年 2024年 经营活动现金流量净额 投资活动现金流量净额 筹资活动现金流量净额 行业样本企业 2022－2024 年末债务负担中位数情况 机场行业信用风险展望丨 2026 摘要 公司邮箱：lianhe@lhratings.com 网址：www.lhratings.com 电话：010-85679696 传真：010-85679228 地址：北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 2 号中国人保财险大厦 17 层 www.lhratings.com 信用风险展望 0 -444.45 -600.00 -400.00 2025 年以来，我国机场行业主 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for the pig farming industry, with expectations of gradual price recovery in the latter half of 2026 after a period of low profitability and cash flow challenges [2][25]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry in China is experiencing a prolonged "pig cycle" with increasing scale among enterprises and farmers, leading to enhanced resilience during downturns. Despite a slight decrease in the breeding sow inventory by the end of September 2025, supply remains within a reasonable range, with expectations of a relaxed supply-demand balance in the first half of 2026, potentially putting pressure on prices [2][25]. - The industry has seen a rise in concentration due to policy drivers and the impact of African swine fever, although it still remains at a relatively low level, contributing to significant cyclical volatility [4][5]. - The report highlights that the pig price fluctuations are influenced by the breeding sow inventory, which serves as a leading indicator for future supply. The current inventory is at the upper limit of the reasonable control zone, suggesting a potential tightening of supply in the latter half of 2026 [5][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Chinese pig farming industry is a major contributor to the livestock sector, accounting for over 50% of both production and value. The market size reached 1.51 trillion yuan in 2024 [4]. - The concentration of the industry has increased, with the top 20 companies accounting for 27.63% of the national output, yet many small farmers still exist, leading to significant fluctuations in production [4]. Production, Output, and Price Analysis - The current pig cycle began in Q2 2022, with a recovery in prices and an increase in breeding sow inventory. By September 2025, the inventory was 40.35 million, still within the reasonable control zone [5][11]. - The report notes that the output of pigs has been increasing, with 2022 and 2023 seeing outputs of 700 million and 727 million pigs respectively, but growth rates are declining [11][10]. Upstream and Feed Price Analysis - The feed industry is crucial for pig farming, with raw material costs comprising 75-80% of feed production costs. Recent trends show a decline in grain and feed prices, alleviating some cost pressures for farmers [16][18]. - The pig-to-feed price ratio is a critical indicator of profitability, with a ratio of 6.00-7.00 indicating a break-even point for farmers. The ratio has fluctuated significantly in recent years, reflecting the volatility in both pig and feed prices [19][19]. Industry Policy - The government has implemented policies to stabilize pig production and control capacity, aiming to reduce the volatility of pig prices and enhance industry concentration [21][23]. - Recent measures include a reduction in breeding sow inventory targets and stricter controls on output weights to manage supply effectively [23][24]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the pig price will gradually rise in the latter half of 2026 due to a tightening supply following a period of capacity reduction. However, challenges remain in cost control related to raw materials and disease management [25][26]. - The industry is expected to stabilize as larger, more efficient farming operations increase their market share, leading to a smoother price cycle in the future [27].

Overview of Equity Finance - Equity finance has rapidly expanded in scale, becoming a crucial method for local governments to enhance fiscal revenue and support industrial development[4] - In 2024, China's general public budget revenue, government fund budget revenue, and state capital operation budget revenue are projected to be CNY 21.97 trillion, CNY 6.21 trillion, and CNY 0.68 trillion, with growth rates of 1.3%, -12.2%, and 0.6% respectively[5] Regional Distribution and Investment Trends - By the end of 2024, a total of 2,178 government guidance funds have been established nationwide, with a total target scale of CNY 12.84 trillion, reflecting a 25% increase from CNY 6.16 trillion in 2021[9] - The proportion of equity investment-related expenditures in total fiscal expenditures increased from approximately 0.99% in 2021 to 1.46% in 2024, indicating a growing weight of equity finance in the fiscal system[9] Case Studies of Different Cities - Hefei, as a technology innovation city, has established a fund matrix exceeding CNY 156 billion, focusing on new energy vehicles and integrated circuits, achieving significant returns through strategic investments[16] - Foshan, a manufacturing cluster city, has created a fund system with a total scale of no less than CNY 1.2 trillion, focusing on advanced manufacturing and technology upgrades, with over 60% of investments in these areas[17] - Yulin, a resource-based city, has developed a fund cluster of nearly CNY 10 billion, focusing on green transformation and product value enhancement in traditional resource industries[19] Challenges and Recommendations - Challenges include unclear identification of industrial advantages, insufficient market-oriented operations, and imbalances between risks and returns[20] - Recommendations for improvement include establishing a scientific evaluation system for industrial advantages, enhancing market-oriented operational mechanisms, and perfecting risk-return balance mechanisms[21]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the logistics industry, highlighting a stable growth trajectory and quality improvement in operations [4][22]. Core Insights - The logistics industry in China is experiencing a "steady progress with quality and efficiency improvement" in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total social logistics volume reaching 263.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [4][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of digital transformation and green development as dual drivers for high-quality growth in the logistics sector, marking a new phase in the industry's evolution [4][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Operation Status - The logistics industry shows stable growth, with a total social logistics volume of 263.2 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than GDP growth [4][5]. - Industrial logistics volume increased by 5.6%, contributing 81.0% to the overall growth, while over 90% of sectors experienced stable growth [5]. - International logistics faced challenges, with a 1.0% decline in import logistics volume, although there was a 3.0% increase in the third quarter, indicating gradual improvement [5]. Industry Policy - A joint implementation plan was issued by ten government departments to promote logistics data openness and connectivity, aiming to reduce overall logistics costs [13][14]. - The plan includes five key tasks to enhance data sharing and integration, which is expected to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs further [15]. Industry Focus - The logistics sector is accelerating its digital transformation, with technologies like AI, big data, and blockchain being increasingly applied [17][18]. - The green logistics trend is gaining momentum, with a 15% year-on-year growth in resource recycling logistics, driven by policies promoting sustainable practices [19]. - Supply chain resilience and safety are becoming focal points, with ongoing improvements in logistics infrastructure and emergency response capabilities [20]. Conclusion - The logistics industry is poised for continued stable development, with ongoing transformation and upgrades supporting the national economy's recovery [22].

Investment Rating - The tourism industry maintains a stable development outlook for 2025, with a stable investment rating [5][55]. Core Insights - In 2025, domestic travel volume and total spending are expected to grow by double digits year-on-year, although the growth rate of total spending is slowing down [8][9]. - The recovery of inbound and outbound tourism is progressing well, with international passenger transport volume exceeding the same period in 2019 [8][12]. - Most scenic spots have seen improvements in cash flow from operations, but profitability has declined compared to the previous year [8][14]. - The hotel industry is facing intensified competition, with only a few major hotel groups experiencing slight increases in occupancy rates and RevPAR [8][26]. - The duty-free industry remains stable, but the Hainan offshore duty-free market continues to face pressure due to weak consumption, although favorable policies are helping the industry to bottom out [8][33]. - Overall profitability of tourism bond-issuing companies has declined compared to the previous year, but the debt maturity structure is relatively balanced, and the overall debt repayment pressure is manageable [8][44]. Industry Operating Status - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic tourism reached 4.998 billion trips, an increase of 18.0% year-on-year, surpassing the same period in 2019 [9]. - Domestic tourism revenue reached 4.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [9][10]. - The number of outbound trips and international passenger transport volume has shown significant recovery, with a 23.5% year-on-year increase in international passenger transport volume [12][13]. Sub-industry Analysis Scenic Spots - In the first nine months of 2025, 13 major listed tourism scenic spots reported a total profit of 1.785 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.67% compared to the previous year [14]. - Operating cash flow for these scenic spots improved, with a total net cash inflow of 2.577 billion yuan, up 14.02% year-on-year [14]. Hotels and Restaurants - Major hotel groups showed mixed results in 2025, with only Marriott International seeing slight improvements in occupancy rates and RevPAR [26]. - The average room rate for star-rated hotels was 371.7 yuan per night, with an average occupancy rate of 49.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year [26][24]. - In the first half of 2025, major hotel groups achieved profitability, with notable growth in net profits for Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and Atour [27]. Duty-Free Shopping - The Hainan offshore duty-free market faced challenges, with sales dropping to 22.16 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% [33][35]. - However, sales began to recover in September 2025, with a 3.4% year-on-year increase, marking the first positive growth in nearly 18 months [34]. Industry Policies - Since 2025, multiple supportive policies have been introduced by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the State Council to promote high-quality development in the tourism industry [40][41]. - Initiatives include the introduction of cultural tourism consumption vouchers and the expansion of quality product supply [40][43]. Credit Analysis of Bond-Issuing Companies - As of September 2025, the overall leverage ratio of tourism bond-issuing companies is at a moderately high level, with a median debt-to-asset ratio of 58.49% [44][52]. - The overall profitability of these companies has declined, with total profits down 35.38% year-on-year [48][55]. - The industry maintains a balanced debt maturity structure, and the overall debt repayment pressure is considered manageable [52][54]. Outlook - The tourism industry is expected to continue its stable demand and recovery, supported by favorable policies and a growing consumer base [55].

Group 1: Background and Motivation - Local government debt risks have intensified due to increasing fiscal imbalances, prompting the need to activate state-owned assets[4] - As of the end of 2024, China's state-owned assets total approximately 957.8 trillion yuan, highlighting the potential for asset activation to stabilize economic growth[6] - The central and local governments have emphasized the importance of activating existing assets to alleviate debt risks and enhance fiscal revenues[6] Group 2: Impact on Regional Development - In 2024, Chongqing activated assets worth 485.5 billion yuan, recovering 261 billion yuan, demonstrating the effectiveness of asset activation in generating cash flow[7] - Non-tax revenue in China is projected to grow by 25.4% in 2024, largely due to the activation of state-owned resources, contributing to 20.36% of the general public budget revenue[9] - The activation of idle assets can significantly enhance resource allocation efficiency, allowing for better utilization of land and infrastructure[14] Group 3: Effects on Urban Investment Companies - Urban investment companies can alleviate short-term debt pressures by selling non-core and idle assets, thereby optimizing their balance sheets[16] - The issuance of public REITs or asset-backed securities allows urban investment companies to broaden financing channels and reduce reliance on traditional financing methods[16] - Asset activation fosters the development of market-oriented operational capabilities, enabling urban investment companies to transition from financing to urban operation roles[17] Group 4: Case Studies in Fujian Province - Fujian Province employs restructuring and financing activation methods tailored to local fiscal conditions and resource endowments, exemplifying a "localized" approach[5] - Coastal cities like Fuzhou and Xiamen focus on upgrading low-efficiency industrial land through innovative financial instruments like REITs, enhancing land utilization[19] - Resource-rich mountainous cities like Longyan utilize resource certification methods to convert idle rural assets into tradable capital, balancing social and economic benefits[28]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the debt risks of local governments and urban investment enterprises in Jiangxi Province, analyzing the economic, fiscal, and debt situations at the provincial and prefecture - level city levels, as well as the situation of urban investment enterprises [4] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Strength of Jiangxi Province Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Jiangxi is located in the central - southeastern part of China, with superior location, rich natural and tourism resources, and a comprehensive transportation network. In 2024, its economic aggregate ranked in the middle in China, with per capita GDP in the lower - middle level. The second industry is the main driving force for economic growth [5][8] - The province has made achievements in transportation construction, with 209,500 kilometers of highways, 5023.8 kilometers of railway operating mileage, and 128.45 kilometers of urban rail transit mileage in Nanchang by the end of 2024. It also has 7 airports and a well - developed waterway transportation system [6] - Jiangxi has rich tourism, water energy, and mineral resources. It has many world - level and national - level scenic spots and is rich in minerals like copper, tungsten, etc [6][7] - The province's population ranks in the middle in China, with a relatively low urbanization rate of 63.77% in 2024, lower than the national average [7] - In 2024, Jiangxi's GDP was 3.42025 trillion yuan, ranking 15th in China, with a growth rate of 5.1%. The per capita GDP was 75,900 yuan, ranking 19th. In the first half of 2025, the GDP was 1.67196 trillion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase [8] - The industrial structure has been adjusted. In 2024, the ratio of the three industries was 7.6:40.0:52.4. The second industry was the core engine for economic growth, with a contribution rate of 52.8% to GDP growth [9] Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Jiangxi's general public budget revenue was 306.66 billion yuan, ranking in the middle in China, with a year - on - year increase of 0.2% on a comparable basis. The tax revenue accounted for 63.81%, and the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was 39.84% [17][18] - Affected by the real - estate market downturn, the government - funded revenue in 2024 was 181.39 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease. The superior subsidy revenue accounted for 44.27% of the local comprehensive fiscal resources [18] - In 2024, Jiangxi's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 171.90% and 44.01% respectively, ranking 17th in China [20] Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - Level Cities in Jiangxi Province Economic Strength - The development of prefecture - level cities in Jiangxi is uneven. The northern part generally leads, followed by the southern part with Ganzhou as the core, while the eastern and western parts have relatively small economic aggregates [22] - Most cities have a "tertiary - secondary - primary" industrial structure, except for Yingtan. Nanchang has the highest economic aggregate, and the GDP of each city increased in 2024 [30] - Ganzhou has the largest permanent population, and Nanchang has the highest urbanization rate [31] Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation Fiscal Revenue - In 2024, the general public budget revenue of prefecture - level cities varied greatly. Nanchang had the highest revenue and fiscal self - sufficiency rate. The government - funded revenue of most cities decreased, and the superior subsidy revenue was relatively large [33] Debt - By the end of 2024, the government debt balance of each prefecture - level city increased. The debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio of each city increased. Ji'an, Yingtan, and Xinyu had relatively high debt ratios [41] - The province will continue to resolve local government debt risks, accelerate the replacement of existing implicit debts, and prevent new implicit debts [42][44] Group 4: Solvency of Urban Investment Enterprises in Jiangxi Province Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - Urban investment enterprises in Jiangxi that issue bonds are mainly at the prefecture - level and district - county levels. Ganzhou has the largest number of such enterprises. The credit ratings of these enterprises are mainly AA, and high - credit - rated enterprises are concentrated in Nanchang and Ganzhou [45] Bond Issuance - In 2024, the overall bond issuance scale in Jiangxi increased year - on - year, but the net financing scale decreased significantly. Nanchang, Jingdezhen, Pingxiang, and Yichun had net inflows of bond financing, while the rest had net outflows [48][49] - From January to October 2025, Jingdezhen and Fuzhou had net inflows of bond financing for urban investment enterprises, while the rest had net outflows. Shangrao and Nanchang had large - scale net outflows [48][49] Solvency Analysis - As of the end of June 2025, Shangrao, Jingdezhen, and Yichun had the top three increments in the total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises. The cash - to - short - term - debt ratio of these enterprises in each city was generally weak. Nanchang and Ganzhou will face large - scale bond maturities in 2026, with concentrated repayment pressure [52][55] Support and Guarantee Capacity of Fiscal Revenue - In 2024, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive fiscal resources in each prefecture - level city exceeded 300%, with Nanchang, Shangrao, Yingtan, and Pingxiang exceeding 600%, and Ganzhou and Jingdezhen exceeding 500% [58]

可转债风险重构与应对—基于风险案例 与退市新规视角 联合资信 工商评级二部 杨学慧 王阳 2024 年成为可转债市场的重要转折点，长期以来的零违约格局被打破；2024-2025 年，5 只转债相继发生实质 性违约，多行业评级下调事件频发，5 只转债随正股同步退市，信用风险集中凸显。可转债风险根植于"债性"与 "股性"的双重属性，核心源于主体资质短板与市场政策变化的叠加。经营端，受外部环境波动、周期行业错配、 并购商誉减值及公司治理缺陷等因素影响，经营承压；市场端，权益疲软削弱转股逻辑叠加退市新规收紧，弱资质 主体出清加速，信用风险与退市风险深度绑定。双重风险相互传导，需聚焦业绩亏损、小市值、财务瑕疵及治理缺 陷类主体，警惕违约与退市连锁反应。可转债风险处置呈现"常规化解-极端处置"的梯度路径体系，条款博弈为主 流常规路径，其成效取决于下修幅度、合规约束与市场信心维护的协同；提前赎回与引入战投依赖现金流储备或外 部资源注入；债务重组、破产清算及退市联动属极端情形，易引发显著损失或违约，路径选择本质是基本面、条款 设计与外部支持的综合权衡。展望未来，市场或将在 2027 年迎来转债集中到期高峰，转股比例下滑削弱转 ...