机场行业 2026 年度信用风险展望（2025 年 11 月） 公用评级三部 丨 张晨 2019－2024 年旅客吞吐量情况（单位：亿人次） 2019－2024 年货邮吞吐量及起降架次情况 （单位：万吨、万架次） 行业样本企业 2022－2024 年现金流情况 32.24 94.51 232.10 493.00 357.72 376.67 -200.00 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 亿 元 -508.59 -577.82 -800.00 2022年 2023年 2024年 经营活动现金流量净额 投资活动现金流量净额 筹资活动现金流量净额 行业样本企业 2022－2024 年末债务负担中位数情况 机场行业信用风险展望丨 2026 摘要 公司邮箱：lianhe@lhratings.com 网址：www.lhratings.com 电话：010-85679696 传真：010-85679228 地址：北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 2 号中国人保财险大厦 17 层 www.lhratings.com 信用风险展望 0 -444.45 -600.00 -400.00 2025 年以来，我国机场行业主 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for the pig farming industry, with expectations of gradual price recovery in the latter half of 2026 after a period of low profitability and cash flow challenges [2][25]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry in China is experiencing a prolonged "pig cycle" with increasing scale among enterprises and farmers, leading to enhanced resilience during downturns. Despite a slight decrease in the breeding sow inventory by the end of September 2025, supply remains within a reasonable range, with expectations of a relaxed supply-demand balance in the first half of 2026, potentially putting pressure on prices [2][25]. - The industry has seen a rise in concentration due to policy drivers and the impact of African swine fever, although it still remains at a relatively low level, contributing to significant cyclical volatility [4][5]. - The report highlights that the pig price fluctuations are influenced by the breeding sow inventory, which serves as a leading indicator for future supply. The current inventory is at the upper limit of the reasonable control zone, suggesting a potential tightening of supply in the latter half of 2026 [5][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Chinese pig farming industry is a major contributor to the livestock sector, accounting for over 50% of both production and value. The market size reached 1.51 trillion yuan in 2024 [4]. - The concentration of the industry has increased, with the top 20 companies accounting for 27.63% of the national output, yet many small farmers still exist, leading to significant fluctuations in production [4]. Production, Output, and Price Analysis - The current pig cycle began in Q2 2022, with a recovery in prices and an increase in breeding sow inventory. By September 2025, the inventory was 40.35 million, still within the reasonable control zone [5][11]. - The report notes that the output of pigs has been increasing, with 2022 and 2023 seeing outputs of 700 million and 727 million pigs respectively, but growth rates are declining [11][10]. Upstream and Feed Price Analysis - The feed industry is crucial for pig farming, with raw material costs comprising 75-80% of feed production costs. Recent trends show a decline in grain and feed prices, alleviating some cost pressures for farmers [16][18]. - The pig-to-feed price ratio is a critical indicator of profitability, with a ratio of 6.00-7.00 indicating a break-even point for farmers. The ratio has fluctuated significantly in recent years, reflecting the volatility in both pig and feed prices [19][19]. Industry Policy - The government has implemented policies to stabilize pig production and control capacity, aiming to reduce the volatility of pig prices and enhance industry concentration [21][23]. - Recent measures include a reduction in breeding sow inventory targets and stricter controls on output weights to manage supply effectively [23][24]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the pig price will gradually rise in the latter half of 2026 due to a tightening supply following a period of capacity reduction. However, challenges remain in cost control related to raw materials and disease management [25][26]. - The industry is expected to stabilize as larger, more efficient farming operations increase their market share, leading to a smoother price cycle in the future [27].

Overview of Equity Finance - Equity finance has rapidly expanded in scale, becoming a crucial method for local governments to enhance fiscal revenue and support industrial development[4] - In 2024, China's general public budget revenue, government fund budget revenue, and state capital operation budget revenue are projected to be CNY 21.97 trillion, CNY 6.21 trillion, and CNY 0.68 trillion, with growth rates of 1.3%, -12.2%, and 0.6% respectively[5] Regional Distribution and Investment Trends - By the end of 2024, a total of 2,178 government guidance funds have been established nationwide, with a total target scale of CNY 12.84 trillion, reflecting a 25% increase from CNY 6.16 trillion in 2021[9] - The proportion of equity investment-related expenditures in total fiscal expenditures increased from approximately 0.99% in 2021 to 1.46% in 2024, indicating a growing weight of equity finance in the fiscal system[9] Case Studies of Different Cities - Hefei, as a technology innovation city, has established a fund matrix exceeding CNY 156 billion, focusing on new energy vehicles and integrated circuits, achieving significant returns through strategic investments[16] - Foshan, a manufacturing cluster city, has created a fund system with a total scale of no less than CNY 1.2 trillion, focusing on advanced manufacturing and technology upgrades, with over 60% of investments in these areas[17] - Yulin, a resource-based city, has developed a fund cluster of nearly CNY 10 billion, focusing on green transformation and product value enhancement in traditional resource industries[19] Challenges and Recommendations - Challenges include unclear identification of industrial advantages, insufficient market-oriented operations, and imbalances between risks and returns[20] - Recommendations for improvement include establishing a scientific evaluation system for industrial advantages, enhancing market-oriented operational mechanisms, and perfecting risk-return balance mechanisms[21]

2025 年前三季度物流行业运行分析 2025 年前三季度，中国物流行业呈现"稳中有进、质效提升"发展态势。社会物流总 额稳步增长，需求结构持续优化，工业品与消费物流需求活跃。行业降本增效成果显著， 社会物流总费用与 GDP 比率进一步降低。当前，行业正积极落实"十五五"规划提出的 "四个转变"，聚焦基础设施网络、物流运输服务、技术装备应用和数据赋能治理，加快 建设现代化交通物流体系。在数字化转型与绿色低碳发展双轮驱动下，物流行业高质量发 展迈入新阶段。 联合资信工商评级二部 一、行业运行状况 2025 年前三季度，中国物流行业总体呈现稳中有进、质效提升的发展态势。社会物 流总额保持稳定增长，内需潜力加速释放，需求结构持续优化。物流供给端同步升级， 细分领域协同提质，行业景气水平整体向好。 中国物流与采购联合会公布的数据显示，2025 年前三季度，全国社会物流总额达 到 263.2 万亿元，按可比价格计算，同比增长 5.4%，增速较上半年回落 0.3 个百分点， 仍保持在较高增长区间，较同期 GDP 增速高 0.2 个百分点，显示了物流需求对经济发 展的支撑作用持续稳固，物流市场在业务拓展与服务增值方面取得的 ...

Investment Rating - The tourism industry maintains a stable development outlook for 2025, with a stable investment rating [5][55]. Core Insights - In 2025, domestic travel volume and total spending are expected to grow by double digits year-on-year, although the growth rate of total spending is slowing down [8][9]. - The recovery of inbound and outbound tourism is progressing well, with international passenger transport volume exceeding the same period in 2019 [8][12]. - Most scenic spots have seen improvements in cash flow from operations, but profitability has declined compared to the previous year [8][14]. - The hotel industry is facing intensified competition, with only a few major hotel groups experiencing slight increases in occupancy rates and RevPAR [8][26]. - The duty-free industry remains stable, but the Hainan offshore duty-free market continues to face pressure due to weak consumption, although favorable policies are helping the industry to bottom out [8][33]. - Overall profitability of tourism bond-issuing companies has declined compared to the previous year, but the debt maturity structure is relatively balanced, and the overall debt repayment pressure is manageable [8][44]. Industry Operating Status - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic tourism reached 4.998 billion trips, an increase of 18.0% year-on-year, surpassing the same period in 2019 [9]. - Domestic tourism revenue reached 4.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [9][10]. - The number of outbound trips and international passenger transport volume has shown significant recovery, with a 23.5% year-on-year increase in international passenger transport volume [12][13]. Sub-industry Analysis Scenic Spots - In the first nine months of 2025, 13 major listed tourism scenic spots reported a total profit of 1.785 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.67% compared to the previous year [14]. - Operating cash flow for these scenic spots improved, with a total net cash inflow of 2.577 billion yuan, up 14.02% year-on-year [14]. Hotels and Restaurants - Major hotel groups showed mixed results in 2025, with only Marriott International seeing slight improvements in occupancy rates and RevPAR [26]. - The average room rate for star-rated hotels was 371.7 yuan per night, with an average occupancy rate of 49.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year [26][24]. - In the first half of 2025, major hotel groups achieved profitability, with notable growth in net profits for Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, and Atour [27]. Duty-Free Shopping - The Hainan offshore duty-free market faced challenges, with sales dropping to 22.16 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% [33][35]. - However, sales began to recover in September 2025, with a 3.4% year-on-year increase, marking the first positive growth in nearly 18 months [34]. Industry Policies - Since 2025, multiple supportive policies have been introduced by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the State Council to promote high-quality development in the tourism industry [40][41]. - Initiatives include the introduction of cultural tourism consumption vouchers and the expansion of quality product supply [40][43]. Credit Analysis of Bond-Issuing Companies - As of September 2025, the overall leverage ratio of tourism bond-issuing companies is at a moderately high level, with a median debt-to-asset ratio of 58.49% [44][52]. - The overall profitability of these companies has declined, with total profits down 35.38% year-on-year [48][55]. - The industry maintains a balanced debt maturity structure, and the overall debt repayment pressure is considered manageable [52][54]. Outlook - The tourism industry is expected to continue its stable demand and recovery, supported by favorable policies and a growing consumer base [55].

Group 1: Background and Motivation - Local government debt risks have intensified due to increasing fiscal imbalances, prompting the need to activate state-owned assets[4] - As of the end of 2024, China's state-owned assets total approximately 957.8 trillion yuan, highlighting the potential for asset activation to stabilize economic growth[6] - The central and local governments have emphasized the importance of activating existing assets to alleviate debt risks and enhance fiscal revenues[6] Group 2: Impact on Regional Development - In 2024, Chongqing activated assets worth 485.5 billion yuan, recovering 261 billion yuan, demonstrating the effectiveness of asset activation in generating cash flow[7] - Non-tax revenue in China is projected to grow by 25.4% in 2024, largely due to the activation of state-owned resources, contributing to 20.36% of the general public budget revenue[9] - The activation of idle assets can significantly enhance resource allocation efficiency, allowing for better utilization of land and infrastructure[14] Group 3: Effects on Urban Investment Companies - Urban investment companies can alleviate short-term debt pressures by selling non-core and idle assets, thereby optimizing their balance sheets[16] - The issuance of public REITs or asset-backed securities allows urban investment companies to broaden financing channels and reduce reliance on traditional financing methods[16] - Asset activation fosters the development of market-oriented operational capabilities, enabling urban investment companies to transition from financing to urban operation roles[17] Group 4: Case Studies in Fujian Province - Fujian Province employs restructuring and financing activation methods tailored to local fiscal conditions and resource endowments, exemplifying a "localized" approach[5] - Coastal cities like Fuzhou and Xiamen focus on upgrading low-efficiency industrial land through innovative financial instruments like REITs, enhancing land utilization[19] - Resource-rich mountainous cities like Longyan utilize resource certification methods to convert idle rural assets into tradable capital, balancing social and economic benefits[28]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the debt risks of local governments and urban investment enterprises in Jiangxi Province, analyzing the economic, fiscal, and debt situations at the provincial and prefecture - level city levels, as well as the situation of urban investment enterprises [4] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Strength of Jiangxi Province Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Jiangxi is located in the central - southeastern part of China, with superior location, rich natural and tourism resources, and a comprehensive transportation network. In 2024, its economic aggregate ranked in the middle in China, with per capita GDP in the lower - middle level. The second industry is the main driving force for economic growth [5][8] - The province has made achievements in transportation construction, with 209,500 kilometers of highways, 5023.8 kilometers of railway operating mileage, and 128.45 kilometers of urban rail transit mileage in Nanchang by the end of 2024. It also has 7 airports and a well - developed waterway transportation system [6] - Jiangxi has rich tourism, water energy, and mineral resources. It has many world - level and national - level scenic spots and is rich in minerals like copper, tungsten, etc [6][7] - The province's population ranks in the middle in China, with a relatively low urbanization rate of 63.77% in 2024, lower than the national average [7] - In 2024, Jiangxi's GDP was 3.42025 trillion yuan, ranking 15th in China, with a growth rate of 5.1%. The per capita GDP was 75,900 yuan, ranking 19th. In the first half of 2025, the GDP was 1.67196 trillion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase [8] - The industrial structure has been adjusted. In 2024, the ratio of the three industries was 7.6:40.0:52.4. The second industry was the core engine for economic growth, with a contribution rate of 52.8% to GDP growth [9] Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Jiangxi's general public budget revenue was 306.66 billion yuan, ranking in the middle in China, with a year - on - year increase of 0.2% on a comparable basis. The tax revenue accounted for 63.81%, and the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was 39.84% [17][18] - Affected by the real - estate market downturn, the government - funded revenue in 2024 was 181.39 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease. The superior subsidy revenue accounted for 44.27% of the local comprehensive fiscal resources [18] - In 2024, Jiangxi's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 171.90% and 44.01% respectively, ranking 17th in China [20] Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - Level Cities in Jiangxi Province Economic Strength - The development of prefecture - level cities in Jiangxi is uneven. The northern part generally leads, followed by the southern part with Ganzhou as the core, while the eastern and western parts have relatively small economic aggregates [22] - Most cities have a "tertiary - secondary - primary" industrial structure, except for Yingtan. Nanchang has the highest economic aggregate, and the GDP of each city increased in 2024 [30] - Ganzhou has the largest permanent population, and Nanchang has the highest urbanization rate [31] Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation Fiscal Revenue - In 2024, the general public budget revenue of prefecture - level cities varied greatly. Nanchang had the highest revenue and fiscal self - sufficiency rate. The government - funded revenue of most cities decreased, and the superior subsidy revenue was relatively large [33] Debt - By the end of 2024, the government debt balance of each prefecture - level city increased. The debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio of each city increased. Ji'an, Yingtan, and Xinyu had relatively high debt ratios [41] - The province will continue to resolve local government debt risks, accelerate the replacement of existing implicit debts, and prevent new implicit debts [42][44] Group 4: Solvency of Urban Investment Enterprises in Jiangxi Province Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - Urban investment enterprises in Jiangxi that issue bonds are mainly at the prefecture - level and district - county levels. Ganzhou has the largest number of such enterprises. The credit ratings of these enterprises are mainly AA, and high - credit - rated enterprises are concentrated in Nanchang and Ganzhou [45] Bond Issuance - In 2024, the overall bond issuance scale in Jiangxi increased year - on - year, but the net financing scale decreased significantly. Nanchang, Jingdezhen, Pingxiang, and Yichun had net inflows of bond financing, while the rest had net outflows [48][49] - From January to October 2025, Jingdezhen and Fuzhou had net inflows of bond financing for urban investment enterprises, while the rest had net outflows. Shangrao and Nanchang had large - scale net outflows [48][49] Solvency Analysis - As of the end of June 2025, Shangrao, Jingdezhen, and Yichun had the top three increments in the total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises. The cash - to - short - term - debt ratio of these enterprises in each city was generally weak. Nanchang and Ganzhou will face large - scale bond maturities in 2026, with concentrated repayment pressure [52][55] Support and Guarantee Capacity of Fiscal Revenue - In 2024, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive fiscal resources in each prefecture - level city exceeded 300%, with Nanchang, Shangrao, Yingtan, and Pingxiang exceeding 600%, and Ganzhou and Jingdezhen exceeding 500% [58]

可转债风险重构与应对—基于风险案例 与退市新规视角 联合资信 工商评级二部 杨学慧 王阳 2024 年成为可转债市场的重要转折点，长期以来的零违约格局被打破；2024-2025 年，5 只转债相继发生实质 性违约，多行业评级下调事件频发，5 只转债随正股同步退市，信用风险集中凸显。可转债风险根植于"债性"与 "股性"的双重属性，核心源于主体资质短板与市场政策变化的叠加。经营端，受外部环境波动、周期行业错配、 并购商誉减值及公司治理缺陷等因素影响，经营承压；市场端，权益疲软削弱转股逻辑叠加退市新规收紧，弱资质 主体出清加速，信用风险与退市风险深度绑定。双重风险相互传导，需聚焦业绩亏损、小市值、财务瑕疵及治理缺 陷类主体，警惕违约与退市连锁反应。可转债风险处置呈现"常规化解-极端处置"的梯度路径体系，条款博弈为主 流常规路径，其成效取决于下修幅度、合规约束与市场信心维护的协同；提前赎回与引入战投依赖现金流储备或外 部资源注入；债务重组、破产清算及退市联动属极端情形，易引发显著损失或违约，路径选择本质是基本面、条款 设计与外部支持的综合权衡。展望未来，市场或将在 2027 年迎来转债集中到期高峰，转股比例下滑削弱转 ...

股权投资行业信用风险展望（2025 年 11 月） 工商评级二部 丨 孔祥一 股权投资行业募资情况 股权投资行业投资情况 股权投资行业退出情况 股权投资行业信用风险展望丨 2026 摘要 公司邮箱：lianhe@lhratings.com 网址：www.lhratings.com 电话：010-85679696 传真：010-85679228 地址：北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 2 号中国人保财险大厦 17 层 www.lhratings.com 信用风险展望 0 2025 年以来，国家层面聚焦股权投资领域培育耐心资本、畅 通私募股权"募投管退"全流程、规范政府投资基金运作等 核心方向，出台了一系列举措。《中共中央关于制定国民经济 和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》围绕股权投资对现代 化产业体系的支撑作用深化聚焦，通过募资、投资、退出三 大维度构建政策闭环，为耐心资本壮大及创业投资高质量发 展铺就清晰路径。 2025 年前三季度，中国股权投资募资端和投资端均持续回 暖，完成募集基金数量和募资规模、投资案例数和投资金额 同比均有增长；退出端的下滑趋势较上半年有所收窄，在政 策鼓励引导下，并购类退出数量强势增长，IP ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the cable television industry Core Insights - The cable television industry is a crucial information infrastructure for the country and is under pressure from new media and internet competition, despite some user recovery due to policy interventions [2][14] - As of Q3 2025, the actual number of cable television users reached 207 million, showing a slight decline of 0.96% compared to the end of 2024, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.49% [4][35] - The total revenue of the broadcasting and television service industry in the first three quarters of 2025 was 1,048.919 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.59% [4] Industry Operation Status - The broadcasting and television service industry saw total revenue of 1,048.919 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with actual revenue of 193.4598 billion yuan, up 4.31% year-on-year [4] - The revenue from broadcasting institutions was 446.904 billion yuan, up 6.73%, while revenue from online audio-visual service institutions was 602.015 billion yuan, up 3.05% [4][7] - The cable television network revenue has shown limited fluctuation, indicating a stable but pressured revenue stream [5] Competitive Landscape - The cable television industry faces significant user diversion due to the growth of new media, broadband networks, and mobile communications [11] - As of Q3 2025, the number of mobile internet users reached 1.269 billion, with video app monthly active users at 799 million, accounting for 62.96% of total internet users [11] - The short video sector has also seen explosive growth, with 1.129 billion monthly active users as of September 2025 [11] Policy Developments - In 2025, significant progress was made in hotel television governance and simplification of remote controls, which helped facilitate user recovery [16] - New standards for residential projects were implemented to ensure the inclusion of cable television systems, enhancing the infrastructure for broadcasting services [17] Company Performance - Among the eight sample companies, only three reported revenue growth: Jishi Media, Jiangsu Cable, and Huashu Media, with growth rates of 3.00%, 2.79%, and 0.92% respectively [18] - The remaining five companies experienced revenue declines, with Guizhou Network and Shaanxi Broadcasting facing the most significant drops of -27.63% and -22.16% [19] - Profitability varied, with Jiangsu Cable's profit increasing by 6.08%, while Huashu Media's profit decreased by 11.36% [24] Financial Health - The average debt-to-asset ratio for sample companies was 56.19%, with some companies exceeding 80%, indicating high leverage [28] - Cash flow from investment activities was generally negative, with several companies relying on external financing to meet their needs [32] Summary - The cable television industry is experiencing user recovery due to policy support, but it continues to face intense competition from new media and the internet [35] - Revenue growth is uneven among companies, with many facing losses and increasing debt levels, while the impact of 5G services on performance remains limited [35]