本次会议是面向方证证券的专业投资机构客户或收邀客户第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议根据监管规定会议不得交流敏感内幕信息未经方证证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人连接录音制作纪要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 各位投资者朋友晚上好欢迎参加方证研究所一月禁股电话会议我是方证策略首席分析师齐佳琦首先容我简要的介绍一下方证策略团队的新主要观点第一呢我们认为12月美联储放映呢不必过分惊慌美股美国股市和经济出现的复盘会将促使美联储整个一方面呢美联储围绕着股市去做预期管理市场上多上涨比较多的之后呢我们都能够看到 他会通过一些鹰派的发言打压乐观预期这是一个正常的操作同时目前美股已经出现了疲弱的信号我们预计美联储有可能在短期之内大概率去转戈另外一方面的历史经验也显示暂停降息的前提是经济保持韧性但是特朗普潜在的加征关税 削除移民包括削减投资等等都可能会导致美国经济不韧性不足同时迫使美联储降息 呃我们近期也观察到A股的风格呢从小盘成长阶段性切到了大盘红利上但是我们说主要的驱动因素可能都局限于短期啊美加利率雷池高位刚刚也提到了但是之后呢大概率会回落第 ...

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Resources Connection, Inc. conference call. Currently, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this line call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to remind everyone that management will be commenting on results for the second quarter ended November 23, 2024. They will also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. An explan ...

【行业研究】建筑施工行业研究报告 联合资信 2025 年 01 月 02 日 摘要 建筑业作为国民经济的支柱产业之一，行业周期性明显。受房地产投资持续 低迷影响，2024 年前三季度建筑业增速有所回落。 从需求端看，2024 年以来，房地产市场开发投资、销售和施工增速仍为负， 虽然国家持续出台刺激政策，但仍需关注相关政策未来发力强度和落地执行情况； 同期，基础设施建设增速同比小幅回升，总体保持相对平稳的增长态势。 2024 年前三季度，建筑施工企业经营活动和投资活动产生现金流量净额缺 口有所扩大，行业流动性压力加大；整体杠杆水平持续提升，中央企业和地方国 有企业杠杆水平有所企稳，民营企业杠杆水平有所下降；民营企业流动性紧缩趋 势愈发明显，需持续关注偿债指标明显弱化、资金链压力较为突出的尾部企业。 随着国家实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，建工行业流动性压力 或将有所缓解。 2024 年前三季度，中央国有企业发债主体数量及发债规模明显领先于其他 所有制企业且优势有所扩大，民营企业无债券发行，信用等级对信用利差表现出 较强的区分度。 联合资信认为，随着国家实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 房 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit rating outlook for the securities industry, with some companies experiencing upgrades in their credit ratings [4][15][16]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "New National Nine Articles" and the gradual implementation of the capital market "1+N" policy framework have significantly boosted market confidence, laying a foundation for the long-term stable development of the industry [2][5]. - In 2024, the capital replenishment of securities companies is expected to slow down due to market and regulatory policy influences, while M&A activities are anticipated to accelerate under policy incentives [3][33]. - The central economic work conference indicated that more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies will be implemented by 2025, which will help stabilize expectations across various industries and restore confidence [3][5]. Industry Credit Risk Review - The securities industry has seen a significant increase in regulatory penalties, with 399 penalties issued in 2024, marking a substantial rise compared to previous years [12][27]. - Despite the high frequency of penalties, no major risk events have impacted the credit ratings of securities companies [18][51]. Industry Policy Overview - The "New National Nine Articles" was released in April 2024, marking a significant policy shift aimed at enhancing the quality of listed companies and strengthening regulatory oversight [21][23]. - Various supporting regulations have been introduced to improve the overall regulatory framework, including stricter controls on IPO approvals and enhanced supervision of listed companies [21][23]. Securities Company Capital Replenishment - The capital replenishment of securities companies has been notably affected by the market and regulatory environment, with a slowdown in new capital raising activities [30][31]. - As of October 2024, several securities companies have received significant capital injections from shareholders, indicating ongoing efforts to strengthen their financial positions [31]. M&A Activities in the Securities Industry - The report highlights a notable acceleration in M&A activities among securities companies in 2024, driven by favorable policy conditions [33][61]. - Several significant mergers have occurred, including major players consolidating to enhance their market positions [33][61]. Bond Issuance by Securities Companies - In the first nine months of 2024, securities companies issued a total of 403 debt financing instruments, with a total fundraising amount of 692.63 billion yuan, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year [61][62]. - However, a surge in bond issuance was observed in the fourth quarter, with expectations for an overall increase in bond issuance in 2025 [36][61]. Industry Revenue Structure and Concentration - The report notes a 9.44% decline in revenue for securities companies in the first half of 2024, primarily due to reduced trading activity and a slowdown in IPO processes [67]. - The concentration of revenue remains high, with the top ten securities companies accounting for a significant portion of the industry's total revenue and profits [43][67].

Consumer Finance Market Overview - The consumer finance market in China is driven by policies aimed at stimulating consumption, including measures to promote service consumption, upgrade consumption scenarios, and encourage the replacement of old goods such as cars and home appliances [3] - In 2024 H1, consumption contributed 60.5% to real GDP growth, down 22.0 and 13.2 percentage points from 2023 and 2024 Q1 respectively [3] - Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 35.36 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, showing a slowdown in consumption recovery momentum [3] - As of September 2024, the balance of RMB loans was 235.61 billion yuan, with consumer loans (excluding housing loans) growing by 3.34% year-on-year, reflecting weak credit demand due to declining income expectations and consumption downgrading [3] Competitive Landscape - The consumer finance market is dominated by traditional commercial banks, with internet finance platforms, private banks, consumer finance companies, and microfinance companies playing supporting roles [4] - Commercial banks hold a 42% share of the consumer loan market (excluding housing loans), while internet finance platforms account for nearly 20% [5] - Licensed consumer finance companies, though currently contributing only around 5% of the market, are expected to grow and become a major player alongside commercial banks [5] - The market share of microfinance companies is shrinking, with loan balances decreasing by 147.8 billion yuan in 2023 [5] Consumer Finance Companies - As of 2024, there are 31 licensed consumer finance companies in China, with 22 backed by commercial banks and 9 by industrial institutions and e-commerce platforms [17] - Consumer finance companies primarily offer small, short-term loans, with loan durations trending shorter in 2023 [19] - The industry's average non-performing loan (NPL) rate was 2.14% at the end of 2023, with a provision coverage ratio of 279.20%, indicating stable asset quality [79] - In 2024, NPL rates have shown signs of rising, with some companies experiencing profit declines due to increased provisioning and risk management pressures [80] Financing and Profitability - Consumer finance companies rely heavily on interbank borrowing, but the issuance of financial bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS) is increasing, diversifying funding sources [22][27] - In 2023, the total financing balance of consumer finance companies grew by 39.50%, with ABS issuance increasing by 79.07% [26][28] - The average financing cost for consumer finance companies decreased to 3.62% in 2023, with bank-affiliated companies enjoying lower costs due to parental support [30] - In 2024, profitability pressures have increased, with some companies reporting declining profits due to lower interest rates and rising credit costs [31][38] Regulatory and Market Trends - The "Consumer Finance Company Management Measures" introduced in 2024 raised the minimum registered capital requirement to 1 billion yuan and increased the shareholding ratio for major investors to 50%, tightening entry barriers [56][57] - The new regulations also limit the balance of guarantee business to no more than 50% of total loan balances, pushing companies to enhance independent risk management capabilities [57] - The industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more stable, competitive phase, with medium-sized companies showing better growth performance than larger players [47][49] - Asset quality remains under pressure, with rising NPL rates and increased bad loan transfers, reflecting challenges in managing credit risk [50][73]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the CDMO industry, highlighting significant growth potential driven by increasing demand for innovative drug development and outsourcing services [18][21][66]. Core Insights - The global CDMO market size reached approximately $75 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.60%, reaching $133 billion by 2027 [4][21]. - The demand for CDMO services is primarily driven by the rising need for innovative drugs, increased R&D investments, and a growing trend of outsourcing within the pharmaceutical industry [20][66]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and global expansion as key competitive drivers for CDMO companies, particularly in emerging biotechnological fields [11][12][66]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic and Demographic Factors - The global economic recovery and the rise of emerging markets are creating opportunities for the CDMO industry, with an increasing demand for high-quality healthcare services and innovative drugs [56][57]. Domestic and International Policies - The promotion of ICH standards is unifying global pharmaceutical regulations, reducing compliance costs for multinational pharmaceutical companies [4]. - The implementation of the MAH system in China is facilitating the development of innovative drugs and boosting the demand for CDMO services [44][57]. Industry Overview - The CDMO industry is characterized by a few large multinational companies dominating the market, while emerging markets like China and India are gaining traction due to cost advantages and technological advancements [26][29][33]. - The average capacity utilization in the CDMO industry was approximately 78.50% in 2023, indicating some idle capacity but also reflecting resource constraints in popular sectors [38]. Competitive Landscape - The report identifies major players in the CDMO market, including WuXi AppTec and Asymchem, which hold significant market shares [29][30]. - The competitive dynamics are shifting, with an increasing focus on local production and supply chain security due to geopolitical factors [41][42]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that investors should focus on companies with strong cost control capabilities and diversified customer bases to mitigate risks associated with market demand fluctuations [51][66]. - Emerging biotechnological fields, such as ADCs and gene therapies, are expected to provide new growth opportunities for CDMO companies [15][13]. Future Outlook - The CDMO industry is anticipated to continue its rapid growth, driven by increasing demand for innovative drug development and a supportive policy environment [66]. - Companies are encouraged to enhance their technological capabilities and explore cross-industry collaborations to meet diverse market needs [48][55].

建筑业作为国民经济的支柱产业之一，行业周期性明显。受房地产投资持续低迷影响，2024 年前三季度建筑业增速 有所回落。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 资料来源：联合资信根据公开资料整理 建工行业增速持续回落，随着国家实施更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策，建工行业流动性压力或将有所缓解 --建筑施工行业研究报告 从需求端看，2024 年以来，房地产市场开发投资、销售和施工增速仍为负，虽然国家持续出台刺激政策，但仍需关 注相关政策未来发力强度和落地执行情况；同期，基础设施建设增速同比小幅回升，总体保持相对平稳的增长态势。 2024 年前三季度，建筑施工企业经营活动和投资活动产生现金流量净额缺口有所扩大，行业流动性压力加大；整体 杠杆水平持续提升，中央企业和地方国有企业杠杆水平有所企稳，民营企业杠杆水平有所下降；民营企业流动性紧缩趋 势愈发明显，需持续关注偿债指标明显弱化、资金链压力较为突出的尾部企业。随着国家实施更加积极的财政政策和适 度宽松的货币政策，建工行业流动性压力或将有所缓解。 一、行业概况 图 1 建筑业产业链 上游 建材 工程机械 建筑业 房屋建筑业 土木工程建筑业 建筑装 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the retail industry, with significant operational pressures on traditional retail formats such as department stores and brand specialty stores [2][28]. Core Insights - The retail sector in China has experienced a low growth rate, with total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 35,356.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [3][10]. - Online retail continues to show robust growth, with a total online retail sales figure of 10,892.8 billion yuan, marking an 8.6% year-on-year increase, which is the highest growth rate among retail formats [3]. - Consumer confidence remains weak, as indicated by fluctuating consumer confidence indices, which suggest insufficient consumer demand and a need for stronger income growth foundations [10][30]. Industry Performance - The performance of major retail enterprises has been declining, with sample enterprises reporting a total revenue of 319.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.26%, while profits increased by 45.93% due to non-operating income [13]. - Department stores have seen a significant revenue drop of 9.92%, with profits rising by 64.96% primarily due to non-operating income, indicating underlying operational challenges [13]. - The convenience store and specialty store segments have shown stable growth, with year-on-year increases of 4.7% and 4.0%, respectively, while department stores and brand specialty stores continue to face declining sales [3][30]. Policy Developments - The government has introduced several initiatives aimed at enhancing the quality of retail operations, including the "Retail Innovation and Improvement Project," which aims to establish a modern retail system by 2029 [6][11]. - The "Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Wholesale and Retail Industries" aims to create a seamless modern commercial circulation system by 2027, promoting the transformation of the retail sector [11][12]. - Policies are being implemented to stimulate service consumption and enhance the overall consumer environment, focusing on various consumption categories such as dining, entertainment, and digital consumption [12][26]. Future Outlook - The retail industry is expected to face continued operational pressures in the short term, with uncertainties surrounding overall performance due to weak consumer confidence [30]. - However, with the implementation of supportive policies, there is potential for gradual improvement in consumption patterns and a more stable growth trajectory in the long term [30].

Fiscal Policy and Economic Expansion - The 2024 National Fiscal Work Conference emphasized a "more proactive fiscal policy" to enhance the economic expansion effect of fiscal spending, with a focus on improving people's livelihoods and expanding domestic demand[1] - The fiscal policy for 2025 includes five key principles: increasing the fiscal deficit ratio, arranging larger-scale government bonds, optimizing expenditure structure, preventing and resolving risks in key areas, and increasing transfer payments[4] - The fiscal deficit and government bond arrangements for 2025 are expected to be expansionary, significantly meeting the needs of macroeconomic regulation and debt resolution[4] Domestic Demand and Social Security - Expanding domestic demand is a priority, with three specific measures: raising social security standards, increasing support for consumer goods replacement, and leveraging government bond funds to attract more social investment[2] - Raising social security standards is a significant policy shift, aiming to improve long-term income for residents and promote equal access to basic public services for urban residents[2] - The fiscal policy shift towards supporting economically strong provinces, such as Jiangsu and Shandong, with an additional 2 trillion yuan in implicit debt replacement funds in 2024, highlights the importance of these regions in national economic development[4] Fiscal Reform and Budget Management - The 2024 and 2025 work plans include "zero-based budgeting reform," which involves re-evaluating all expenditure needs from scratch and improving the efficiency of fund allocation[3] - The fiscal policy aims to improve the macro expansion effect of fiscal funds by focusing on short-term stimulus policies and reducing unnecessary expenditures[3] Corporate Environment and Non-Tax Revenue - The fiscal conference addressed the issue of non-tax revenue growth outpacing industrial enterprise profit growth, which negatively impacts corporate expectations[5] - Measures to prevent arbitrary fees, fines, and apportionments were proposed to stabilize corporate confidence and support the recovery of the private economy in 2025[5]

IFRS9 的中文名称为《国际财务报告准则第 9 号—新金融工具准则》，是由国际 会计准则理事会（IASB）于 2014 年正式发布的会计准则方法，以取代 1995 年发布 的 IAS39。 | --- | --- | |---------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2008 年 9 月 | 国际会计准则理事会（ IASB ）发布《降低金融工具报告的复杂性》讨论稿，为准则的变革公开征求意见。 | | | IASB 公布了制定一套新的准则以替换 IAS39 的项目计划，新的准则即国际财务报告准则第 9 号；明确了替换项 | | 2009 年 5 月 | 目将分为三个主要阶段，分别为分类与计量、减值方法和套期会计。 | | 2009 年 7 月 | 国际会计 ...