Group 1: Financial Performance - NVIDIA's Q3 revenue reached $35.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 93.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.8%[1] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 was 75.0%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, aligning with company guidance and Bloomberg consensus[1] - Non-GAAP earnings per share for Q3 were $0.81, up 101.0% year-on-year and 18.4% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 8.9%[1] Group 2: Business Segments - Data center revenue hit a record high of $30.8 billion, accounting for 88% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 112.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 17.1%[2] - 90% of data center revenue, approximately $27.6 billion, came from computing, which saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.3%[2] - Gaming, professional visualization, and automotive segments experienced quarter-on-quarter revenue growth of 13.9%, 7.0%, and 29.8%, respectively[2] Group 3: Demand Outlook - Strong demand for the Hopper series, with H200 sales reaching several billion dollars in Q3, is expected to continue into the second half of the year and next year[3] - NVIDIA delivered 13,000 GPU samples in Q3, with Q4 deliveries expected to exceed previous forecasts[3] - Approximately 50% of Q3 data center revenue was contributed by cloud vendors, totaling around $15 billion, with major players like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon accounting for about 30% of their capital expenditures directed towards NVIDIA[3] Group 4: Margin Expectations - Initial gross margins for the Blackwell series are projected to be between 71.0% and 72.5%, with expectations of improvement to around 70% as production stabilizes and scales up[4]

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Outperform" for the next 12 months, indicating expected performance to exceed market benchmarks [15]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's Q3 FY25 revenue reached $35.082 billion, a year-on-year increase of 93.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.8% [1][10]. - The data center segment generated $30.8 billion, accounting for 88% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of 112.0% [1][10]. - The demand outlook remains optimistic, particularly for the Hopper series, with significant contributions from cloud service providers [1][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - NVIDIA's Q3 FY25 revenue was $35.082 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 5.5% [1][10]. - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 was 75.0%, consistent with company guidance [1][10]. - Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.81, exceeding expectations by 8.9% [1][10]. Business Segments - Data center revenue reached $30.8 billion, with 90% derived from compute-related revenue, which grew 132.0% year-on-year [1][10]. - The gaming and professional visualization segments also showed growth, with quarter-on-quarter increases of 13.9% and 29.8%, respectively [1][10]. Future Outlook - NVIDIA expects Q4 FY25 revenue to be around $37.5 billion, indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.9% [1][10]. - Management anticipates continued growth in the Hopper series and a stable gross margin of approximately 75% for FY25 [1][10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Thermo Fisher with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of $670 [1][5][33]. Core Insights - Thermo Fisher is positioned as a global leader in the life sciences sector, benefiting from industry improvement trends and a comprehensive product and service portfolio [1][2]. - The company is expected to experience revenue growth of +0.4% in 2024, +5.6% in 2025, and +8.3% in 2026, with Non-GAAP net profit growth of -1.0%, +5.7%, and +10.4% respectively [1][2]. - The report highlights the anticipated recovery in biotech financing, driven by the Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting environment, which is expected to boost customer demand [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Thermo Fisher has the largest business scale and service range in the industry, providing integrated services from drug discovery to commercial production [1][2]. - The company’s bioproduction services offer a competitive edge in securing customer orders, while its CDMO business addresses clinical trial supply challenges [1][2]. Financial Strength - Thermo Fisher is an active consolidator in the life sciences sector, with management planning to allocate 60%-75% of capital for mergers and acquisitions [1][2]. - The company has consistently generated robust free cash flow, providing a solid financial foundation for future expansions [1][2]. Market Trends - The global life sciences market is projected to grow due to increasing demand for pharmaceuticals, drug production costs, and R&D expenditures [1][2]. - The report notes that downstream customers are expected to complete inventory destocking by 2024, which will normalize order patterns [1][2]. Financial Projections - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, including projected sales revenue of $43,033 million in 2024, with a growth trajectory leading to $49,234 million by 2026 [2][28]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be $8,278 million in 2024, increasing to $9,662 million by 2026 [2][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for PDD Holdings, citing that the stock price reflects short-term pressures and is supported by policy measures to boost consumption [1]. Core Insights - PDD Holdings reported a revenue growth of 44.3% year-on-year for Q3 2024, reaching RMB 99.4 billion, which was approximately 3% below Bloomberg consensus estimates [1]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 down by 4%-9% and non-GAAP net profit forecasts down by 9%-16% due to the impact of enhanced merchant support measures [1]. - The target price has been revised down from USD 187.90 to USD 156.80, corresponding to a 14x P/E ratio for 2024 [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, revenue is projected at RMB 398.2 billion, with a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 123.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 81.7% [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased to 60.0%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous year, attributed to a miss in commission revenue forecasts [1][6]. - The company’s operating profit margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 24.5%, which is 2.9 percentage points lower than expected [6]. Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing services and other revenues grew by 24.3% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reaching RMB 49.4 billion, while transaction service fees increased by 71.5% to RMB 50 billion [1][6]. - The total revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 99.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.3% [6]. Strategic Initiatives - Management emphasized ongoing investments in the merchant ecosystem to foster a healthier and more sustainable platform, including fee waivers and enhanced after-sales support [1]. - The company has implemented a RMB 10 billion fee reduction plan benefiting over 10 million merchants, aimed at cost savings and efficiency improvements [1].

Investment Rating - Maintains a **Buy** rating with a target price raised to **USD 23.3** (previously USD 21.5), reflecting a 15.2% upside from the current price of USD 20.23 [1][5] Core Views - **Revenue Growth**: Q3 2024 revenue increased by 27% YoY to RMB 22.6 billion, slightly below Bloomberg consensus and CICC estimates by 1.5% and 4.7%, respectively, due to weak existing home transaction (EHT) sentiment [1] - **Non-GAAP Net Income**: Q3 2024 non-GAAP net income was RMB 1.8 billion, with a gross margin of 7.9%, in line with expectations, driven by cost control measures [1] - **Market Share Expansion**: Continued market share gains in both existing home transactions (EHT) and new home transactions (NHT), along with successful new business expansion, support a positive outlook [1] - **Q4 2024 Outlook**: EHT and NHT gross transaction value (GTV) are expected to grow over 40% YoY, supported by strong performance in October and November, though additional expenses of RMB 1-1.5 billion may reduce Q4 non-GAAP net income to RMB 220 million [2] Business Performance - **EHT Performance**: EHT GTV grew 9% YoY but declined 17% QoQ due to slowing transaction sentiment post-June peak, with contribution margin dropping 7 percentage points to 41% due to increased fixed costs from agent expansion [2] - **NHT Performance**: NHT GTV grew 18.5% YoY, significantly outperforming the industry's 19% decline, driven by partnerships with state-owned developers [2] - **Policy Impact**: Policy Package 924 and subsequent measures have significantly boosted transaction sentiment, with better sustainability compared to previous policy supports [2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: FY2024E revenue is projected at RMB 91.0 billion, growing 17.1% YoY, with FY2025E and FY2026E revenues expected at RMB 107.7 billion (+18.3% YoY) and RMB 121.8 billion (+13.0% YoY), respectively [4] - **Non-GAAP Net Profit**: FY2024E non-GAAP net profit is estimated at RMB 8.1 billion, with FY2025E and FY2026E projections of RMB 9.4 billion (+16.7% YoY) and RMB 10.9 billion (+16.0% YoY), respectively [4] - **Valuation Metrics**: The target price implies a 2025E non-GAAP P/E of 21.4x, with core business valued at USD 22.3 per ADS and Shengdu at USD 0.9 per ADS [1][10] Corporate Social Responsibility - **Employee Welfare**: Plans to invest RMB 1.2 billion over the next 3-4 years in employee welfare, including transitioning to fixed salary structures and providing social insurance for brokers, enhancing long-term value [3] Valuation Summary - **DCF Valuation**: The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation for the core business is RMB 193.7 billion, with a total enterprise value of RMB 201.7 billion, translating to a valuation of USD 23.3 per ADS [9][10] - **SOTP Valuation**: The sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation includes RMB 193.7 billion for the core business and RMB 8.0 billion for Shengdu, resulting in a total valuation of RMB 201.7 billion (USD 28.0 billion) [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for PDD Holdings, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1]. Core Insights - PDD Holdings reported a revenue increase of 44.3% YoY in 3Q24, reaching RMB99.4 billion, which was 3% below Bloomberg consensus estimates [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit rose by 61.3% YoY to RMB27.5 billion, also falling short of consensus by 6% due to revenue generation misses [1]. - The target price (TP) has been adjusted down to US$156.8 from US$187.9, reflecting a 34.6% upside from the current price of US$116.49 [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing merchant support, which has led to cost savings for over 10 million merchants [1]. - Management plans to continue investing in the merchant ecosystem to ensure sustainable long-term growth [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, revenue is projected at RMB398.2 billion, with a net profit of RMB113.0 billion, reflecting a YoY growth of 81.7% [3]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 61.8% in FY24E, with an operating margin of 28.2% [5]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is forecasted at RMB123.4 billion, with a P/E ratio of 10.3x [3][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing services and other revenues increased by 24.3% YoY to RMB49.4 billion in 3Q24, while transaction services revenue grew by 71.5% YoY to RMB50.0 billion [1]. - The total revenue for 3Q24 was RMB99.4 billion, with a gross profit of RMB59.6 billion, resulting in a gross profit margin of 60.0% [1][5]. Segment Valuation - The SOTP valuation indicates that the main app contributes RMB240.1 billion in revenue, with a valuation of US$119.1 per share based on a 12x 2024E P/E [5]. - Duoduo Grocery is valued at US$1.9 per share, while Temu is valued at US$15.7 per share based on a 1.2x 2024E P/S [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Ke Holdings (BEKE US) with a target price raised to US$23.30 from US$21.50, indicating a potential upside of 15.2% from the current price of US$20.23 [3]. Core Insights - Ke Holdings reported a revenue increase of 27% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB22.6 billion for Q3 2024, although this was slightly below consensus estimates due to mixed performance in existing home transactions [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies in Q4 2024, with guidance indicating over 40% YoY growth in both existing and new home transaction volumes [1]. - The report highlights the company's proactive expansion strategy, which has led to an increase in fixed costs but is expected to enhance long-term value through improved employee compensation and social responsibility initiatives [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB91.0 billion, with a YoY growth of 17.1%, and net profit is expected to be RMB5.19 billion [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB1.8 billion, with a margin of 7.9%, aligning with estimates [1]. - The company anticipates a non-GAAP net profit of RMB2.2 billion for Q4 2024, reflecting a margin of 7.7% [1]. Business Segment Performance - Existing home transaction (EHT) gross transaction value (GTV) rose 9% YoY but fell 17% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), while new home transaction (NHT) GTV increased by 18.5% YoY, outperforming the industry [1]. - The report notes a divergence in performance between EHT and NHT businesses, with EHT facing challenges due to low transaction sentiment [1]. Future Outlook - The report projects continued growth in both EHT and NHT segments, driven by recent policy support and market share gains [1]. - The company plans to invest RMB1.2 billion over the next 3-4 years in staff welfare and social insurance for agents, which is expected to enhance its long-term value [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Palo Alto Networks (PANW) with a target price raised by 17% to $464.40, based on a consistent price-to-sales ratio of 16.0x [3][14]. Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks reported a 13.9% year-over-year revenue growth for Q1 FY2025, reaching $2.1 billion, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1% [3]. - Non-GAAP net income for the same period was $544.9 million, reflecting a 17% increase year-over-year and surpassing consensus expectations by 6% [3]. - The company's platform strategy is showing initial success, which is expected to drive long-term market share growth [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Overview - Subscription and support revenue grew by 16% to $1.8 billion, accounting for 83% of total revenue, driven by increased adoption of Next-Generation Security (NGS) products [4]. - NGS Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $4.52 billion, a 40% year-over-year increase [4]. Financial Performance - Non-GAAP operating profit was $616.2 million, with a margin of 28.8%, exceeding market expectations by 1.2 percentage points [4]. - The report anticipates Q2 FY2025 total revenue to reach $2.23 billion, reflecting a 13% year-over-year growth [4]. Product Growth - Active SASE customer count increased by 20% year-over-year, with over 40% of new SASE customers being first-time adopters of PANW products [5]. - Cortex ARR reached $1 billion, with significant growth driven by XSIAM, where 40 customers have ARR exceeding $1 million, marking a 180% year-over-year increase [5]. Guidance Update - Management raised FY2025 guidance due to optimistic Q1 performance: NGS ARR is now projected between $5.52 billion and $5.57 billion, total revenue between $9.12 billion and $9.17 billion, and diluted non-GAAP EPS between $6.26 and $6.39 [6]. Valuation Metrics - The target enterprise value/sales for FY2025 is set at $158.2 billion, with a target price of $464.40 based on projected revenue [14]. - The report indicates a consistent growth trajectory in revenue and profitability metrics, with adjusted net income expected to reach $2.26 billion in FY2025 [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Palo Alto Networks (PANW) with a target price raised by 17% to US$464.4, reflecting a potential upside of 16.8% from the current price of US$397.70 [1][3]. Core Insights - Palo Alto Networks reported strong 1QFY25 results, with total revenue increasing by 13.9% year-over-year to US$2.1 billion, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 1% [1]. - Non-GAAP net income for the same period reached US$544.9 million, up 17% year-over-year, and 6% better than consensus, driven by optimized sales and marketing expenses [1]. - The company's Platformization strategy is showing early positive results, which is expected to enhance long-term market share and operational efficiency [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1QFY25 subscription and support revenue grew 16% year-over-year to US$1.8 billion, accounting for 83% of total revenue [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit reached US$616.2 million, translating to a 28.8% non-GAAP operating profit margin, which is 1.2 percentage points better than consensus [1]. - The company has lifted its FY25 guidance for NGS ARR to US$5.52 billion - US$5.57 billion and total revenue to US$9.12 billion - US$9.17 billion [1]. Key Operating Metrics - The number of active SASE customers grew by 20% year-over-year, with over 40% of new SASE customers being new to PANW [1]. - NGS ARR reached US$4.52 billion by the end of 1QFY25, up 40% year-over-year, with expectations for continued growth driven by SASE and XSIAM products [1]. - The company achieved 1,100 total Platformizations among its top 5,000 customers, with a 6% increase in NGS ARR per platformized customer compared to FY24 [1]. Revenue Projections - FY25 revenue is projected at US$9.15 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14% [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit for FY25 is estimated at US$2.26 billion, with an adjusted EPS of US$6.45 [2]. - The revenue growth is expected to continue into FY26 and FY27, with projections of US$10.64 billion and US$12.27 billion respectively [2].

21 Nov 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update NIO Inc. (NIO US) NIO's cost control disappoints us again Maintain HOLD. Despite NIO's efforts to lift GPM in 3Q24, its cost control capabilities disappointed us once again. With the Onvo L60's designed GPM and continuous investments in battery swap, we see limited GPM improvement in FY25E despite 45% YoY growth in revenue on our estimates. We are of the view that management's guidance for breakeven in FY26 is t ...