Investment Rating - Maintains a **Buy** rating for JD com with a target price of **USD 53 50**, up 3% from the previous target of **USD 51 90** [1][10] Core Views - JD com is expected to achieve **5% YoY revenue growth** in Q3 2024, in line with Bloomberg consensus, driven by improved consumer sentiment and the nationwide appliance trade-in program [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to exceed expectations, with a **7% YoY increase** to **RMB 11 4 billion**, supported by effective cost control and service revenue growth [1] - The company is shifting focus from investment returns and cost control to **GMV and revenue growth**, which is expected to drive further stock price appreciation [1] - JD Retail (JDR) is projected to achieve **RMB 223 6 billion in revenue**, a **5% YoY increase**, with non-GAAP operating profit rising **3% YoY** to **RMB 11 4 billion** [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - For Q3 2024, JD com is estimated to generate **RMB 260 billion in revenue**, with **4% YoY growth in net product revenue** and **8% YoY growth in net service revenue** [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2024 is forecasted at **RMB 114 billion**, a **7% YoY increase**, surpassing market expectations by **1%** [1] - The 2024 full-year revenue forecast remains largely unchanged, but the non-GAAP net profit forecast is revised upward by **1 4%** due to better-than-expected cost control [2] Valuation and Shareholder Returns - The target price of **USD 53 50** is based on a DCF model with a WACC of **11 8%** and a terminal growth rate of **1 5%**, implying a **14x P/E ratio** for 2024 [10] - JD com announced a new **USD 5 billion share repurchase program**, effective from September 2024 to August 2027, representing **2 6% of the current market cap annually**, which is expected to support valuation [2] Segment Performance - JD Retail (JDR) is expected to see a **5% YoY revenue growth** in Q3 2024, driven by a rebound in the **Home Appliances and Home Goods (EH&A) segment** and steady growth in general merchandise [1] - The **Marketplace and Advertising revenue** is projected to grow **8% YoY**, benefiting from improved ad revenue and positive commission growth [1] Financial Metrics - JD com's **gross margin** is expected to improve slightly to **15 3%** in 2024, with non-GAAP net profit margin at **3 7%** [8][9] - The company's **ROE** is forecasted to rise to **14 9%** in 2024, reflecting improved profitability [16] Market and Industry Context - The report highlights JD com's ability to capitalize on **improved consumer sentiment** and government initiatives like the **appliance trade-in program**, which are expected to drive growth in the coming quarters [1]

15 Oct 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update JD.com (JD US) Expecting inline 3Q revenue growth with upside coming from bottom line We expect JD to deliver inline-with-Bloomberg consensus revenue growth and a better-than-expected non-GAAP net profit for 3Q24, aided by efficient cost control, and a YoY increase in revenue contribution from services revenue. Amid improving consumption sentiment since September, and benefiting from the implementation of home appliance trade-in ...

2024 年 10 月 15 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 AMD "Advancing AI" 大会回顾 AMD（AMD US，未评级）在美国当地时间 10 月 10 日举办的 "Advancing AI" 大会上发布了全新的 AI 加速器 Instinct MI325X，该产品旨在对标英伟达 （NVDA US，未评级）的 H200，前者预计将于 2024 年四季度出货。在本次 大会上，AMD 还推出了对标英伟达 Blackwell 系列的 MI350 系列芯片，但该系 列最快在 2H25 实现量产。据 AMD 首席执行官 Lisa Su 称，数据中心 AI 加速 器的潜在市场规模（TAM）将以超过 60% 的复合增长率增长，并于 2028 年达 到 5,000 亿美元，较此前的预测（ Lisa Su 在 2024 年初曾预计 2027 年将达到 4,000 亿美元）大幅上调。总体而言，此次大会并未给投资者带来太多惊喜。 本次会上，我们注意到： 1）Meta 的 Llama 405B 模型已全面在 MI300X 上运 行，意味着 AMD 在 Meta 方面取得了良好的进展；2）A ...

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating and raise target price to HK$ 126.68, based on 23x FY25E P/E, revised up from 20x [3][5][11] Core Views - Despite a disappointing 3Q24 performance, the outlook for 4Q24E is positive due to strong retail sales growth during the National Day holidays and government stimulus measures [3] - The company has not revised down its FY24E sales growth guidance, but a more conservative estimate is adopted [3] - Confidence in net profit margin remains high, supported by effective cost control and a resilient gross profit margin [3][6] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - FY24E revenue forecast is RMB 69,483 million, with a slight downward revision of -1.2% from previous estimates [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for FY24E is revised up by 4.8% to RMB 12,886 million [7] - Diluted EPS for FY24E is projected at RMB 4.601, reflecting a 4.8% increase from previous estimates [7] Sales Growth Expectations - Retail sales growth for Anta and FILA is expected to turn around in 4Q24E, with estimates of 16% and 10% respectively [3] - The company anticipates high single-digit to mid-single-digit retail sales growth for Anta and FILA in FY24E, compared to the company's guidance of over 10% [3] Market Position and Brand Performance - Anta's brand reforms are yielding positive results, with successful product launches and an expanded customer base through various store formats [3] - FILA is also expected to benefit from store revamps and new product series, although its recent performance has been weaker [3] Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 18x FY25E P/E, which is considered not demanding compared to its 5-year average of 25x [3] - The target price reflects a potential upside of 26.6% from the current price of HK$ 100.10 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for the company, indicating a potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months [2]. Core Viewpoints - The earnings forecast for 2024E and 2025E has been revised down by 5% and 2% respectively, reflecting a projected ~20% year-on-year earnings decline in the second half of 2024, with recovery expected in 2025 [2]. - The target price has been adjusted to HK$21.4 from HK$19.5, based on a valuation of 4.5x EV/EBITDA, which aligns with the historical average [2]. - The report suggests that the current share price does not yet reflect the downside risks to earnings, particularly following a recent rally [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 85,041 million in FY23A to RMB 91,906 million in FY24E, representing an 8.1% year-on-year growth [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,318.1 million in FY23A to RMB 5,685.1 million in FY24E, reflecting a 6.9% growth [3]. - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.9x in FY23A to 10.2x in FY24E, indicating a more attractive valuation [3]. Sales Volume and Revenue Projections - The sales volume for heavy-duty trucks (HDT) is expected to decline by 3.7% in 2024E, with a slight recovery projected in 2025E [6]. - The revenue from the truck segment is forecasted to remain stable, with a slight increase from RMB 92,273 million in 2024E to RMB 92,517 million in 2025E [6]. - The report highlights a significant drop in engine sales volume, projected to decrease by 25.5% in 2024E [6]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin is expected to decline from 16.2% in FY23A to 15.0% in FY24E, indicating pressure on profitability [10]. - Operating profit is projected to increase from RMB 6,487 million in FY23A to RMB 7,034 million in FY24E, reflecting an 8.4% growth [8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable around 13.6% in FY24E [10]. Gearing and Liquidity - The net gearing ratio is projected to worsen from (44.3%) in FY22A to (47.3%) in FY24E, indicating increased leverage [3]. - The current ratio is expected to remain stable at around 1.2 over the forecast period, suggesting adequate liquidity [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Weichai Power, indicating that the valuation remains attractive even with revised earnings forecasts [2][4]. Core Views - The earnings forecast for Weichai Power has been adjusted downwards, with HDT engine sales volume forecasts trimmed by 7% for 2024E and 2025E, reflecting a challenging market environment [2]. - Profit growth is expected to decelerate significantly from 51% in 1H24 to 7% in 2H24E and further to 2% in 2025E, primarily due to unfavorable LNG/diesel price spreads impacting the gas engine segment [2]. - The target price has been revised down to RMB17.9/HK$17.7 from RMB18.0/HK$19.5, reflecting a 25.1% upside from the current price of RMB14.31 [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB213,958 million in FY23A to RMB223,162 million in FY24E, representing a 4.3% year-on-year growth [3]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB9,013.9 million in FY23A to RMB11,390.7 million in FY24E, reflecting a 26.4% growth [3]. - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 13.9x in FY23A to 11.0x in FY24E, indicating a more favorable valuation [3][14]. Sales Volume and Revenue Breakdown - The total engine sales volume forecast for 2024E has been revised down to 803,223 units, a decrease of 5.6% from previous estimates [7]. - Revenue from diesel engines is expected to decline from RMB69,788 million to RMB66,427 million in 2024E, a drop of 4.8% [7]. - The segment profit for diesel engines is projected to increase slightly from RMB8,863 million to RMB8,968 million in 2024E, indicating a 1.2% growth [7]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a target price of RMB17.90, with a current price of RMB14.31, suggesting a significant upside potential [4]. - The net gearing ratio is expected to worsen from (62.0%) in FY23A to (70.2%) in FY24E, indicating increasing leverage [3][14]. - The dividend yield is projected to increase from 3.6% in FY23A to 4.6% in FY24E, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3][14].

2024 年 10 月 14 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 通胀放缓但略超预期 9 月 CPI 增速延续放缓，因油价下跌和房租通胀回落。但食品、核心商品和其 他服务通胀均有反弹，令 CPI 和核心 CPI 增速略超市场预期。二手车、能源等 先行价格预示短期内进一步去通胀可能受阻，预计未来三个月 CPI 环比增速可 能平稳，但同比增速或因低基数效应而小幅反弹，核心 CPI 增速将稳定在高 位。中期内，由于房租通胀仍有补降空间，就业市场延续放缓将带动工资涨幅 和服务通胀回落，CPI 与核心 CPI 增速将延续温和下降。随着美国经济放缓、 通胀下降和实际利率居高，美联储在 9 月大幅降息以实现货币政策"校准"。 短期内美国经济仍具韧性而通胀仍超目标，美联储将转向小幅渐进式降息，预 计 11 月和 12 月各降 25 个基点。中期内美国经济和通胀将延续放缓，美联储明 年可能进一步降息 100 个基点。美国中性利率水平相比之前有所上升，在经济 软着陆情境下政策利率终值可能不低于 3%。 CPI 增速延续放缓，受益于能源价格下跌。9 月 CPI 环比增长 0.18%，高 于市场预期的 0.1 ...

2024 年 10 月 8 日 政策转向强宽松 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 市场策略 策略观点 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------| | | | | 宏观：中国经济延续走弱，房地产降幅扩大，消费疲弱和通缩压力持续。中 | 叶丙南 , Ph.D | | 国政策大幅转向强宽松，希望修复房市和股市信心，中国市场情绪大振。但 目前政策仍难以扭转消费疲弱和通缩压力，仍需财政政策扩张、去产能政策 | 刘泽晖 | | 推进和市场化改革加速。美国经济延续温和放缓，从过热趋向偏冷，但有望 避免衰退。美联储 9 月大幅降息之后可 ...

2024 年 10 月 4 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 PMI 显示经济韧性与分化 9 月 PMI 显示美国经济韧性与分化。服务业 PMI 大幅上升连续 3 个月扩张，新订 单、库存和价格指数延续扩张显示内需稳健，但就业指数降至收缩区间预示劳动 力市场延续降温，经济仍有放缓风险。制造业 PMI 连续 6 个月收缩，需求、就业 与价格均在收缩，进出口贸易活动走弱。PMI 数据显示美国以服务业为主的经济 仍有韧性。展望未来，经济可能延续放缓，逐渐从过热走向偏冷，但有望避免衰 退。我们认为，美联储在 9 月超常规大幅降息后，11 月和 12 月可能分别降息 25 个基点，明年进一步降息 100 个基点。 服务业延续扩张，内需依然稳健。ISM 服务业 PMI 从 8 月的 51.5 升至 9 月的 54.9，服务业扩张速度加快。根据历史经验，服务业 PMI 超过 49 预示经济扩 张，9 月服务业 PMI 对应年化 GDP 增速为 1.9。服务业新订单指数从 53 大幅 升至 59.4创去年 3月以来最高，显示服务业需求依然强劲。库存指数和物价指 数分别从 8 月的 52.9 和 57 ...

30 Sep 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 中国虹桥(1378 香港) 预计中国刺激后 ASP 会上升 我们相信铝（Al）是受中国推出一系列强力市场政策影响最为敏感的行业之一 。这将与美元因美国开始降息周期而走弱以及铝相对较有限的新供应量相结合 ，有望在短期内推动铝价上涨，成为虹桥的关键催化剂。我们上调了2024年至 2026年的盈利预测，增幅为9-12%，主要由于铝价假设上调。据估计，每1%的 铝价上涨将使虹桥的每股收益增加4%。目前，虹桥正处于中期估值水平（2024 年市盈率7倍），具有吸引力的股息收益率7%。基于不变的9.8倍2024年市盈率 ，我们新的目标价为19.6港元（此前为17.9港元）。维持 BUY . ... 近期需求将得到政策的支持。 我们估计，中国的建筑（包括房地产和基 础设施）以及汽车市场分别占全球人工智能需求的16%和14%。我们认为，中 国政府的政策将有助于稳定上述需求的预期。从长期来看，我们继续看好汽车 轻量化趋势和太阳能安装的快速增长，这些因素将成为人工智能结构性增长的 动力。 新供应有限... 中国8月份的铝产量同比增长放缓至1.3%（低于6月和 ...