Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Carote Ltd, with a target price of HK$6.44, reflecting a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HK$5.55 [3][10]. Core Insights - Carote Ltd's FY24 net profit was in line with expectations, but sales faced pressure, leading to a cautious outlook for FY25E with a forecasted 7% net profit drop [1][10]. - Despite macroeconomic headwinds, management remains optimistic about achieving a sales growth target of over 30% for FY25E, particularly in the US and Western Europe markets [9][10]. - The company is expected to experience a decline in gross profit margins due to import tariffs and other macro uncertainties, with projections of 35.2% and 33.6% for FY25E and FY26E, respectively [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 was reported at RMB 2,073 million, representing a 31% year-over-year growth, while net profit surged by 50% to RMB 356 million [2][10]. - For FY25E, revenue is forecasted to be RMB 2,560 million, with a year-over-year growth rate of 23.5% [2][11]. - The company's gross profit margin for FY24 was 40.3%, exceeding estimates, but is expected to decline in the following years [10][11]. Market Performance - Carote Ltd's market capitalization is approximately HK$3,080.3 million, with an average turnover of HK$6.3 million over the past three months [4]. - The share performance over the last month showed an increase of 4.7%, while the three-month performance was up by 11% [6]. Shareholding Structure - The major shareholders include Yili Investment & Carote CM, holding 72.4%, and cornerstone investors holding 9.8% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for Sinotruk (Hong Kong) with a target price of HK$20.50, down from the previous target price of HK$21.40, indicating an 8.5% downside from the current price of HK$22.40 [1][3]. Core Views - Sinotruk's 2024 net profit is projected at RMB5.86 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase, which is slightly above the report's estimate but below Bloomberg's consensus [1]. - The management anticipates a decline in export sales for 2025, aligning with the report's view that exports will face pressure due to a high base in the Russian market [1]. - The report revises down the earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 2% and 3% respectively, primarily due to lower export volume assumptions and low engine margins [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB85.04 billion in FY23 to RMB95.06 billion in FY24, with a projected growth rate of 11.8% [2]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB5.32 billion in FY23 to RMB5.86 billion in FY24, representing a 10.2% growth [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB2.14 for FY24, with a year-over-year growth of 10.9% [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 10.9 in FY23 to 9.8 in FY24, indicating a more attractive valuation [2]. Segment Performance - Heavy-duty truck (HDT) sales are projected to grow by 3% in 2025, driven by a 12% increase in China, but offset by a 5% decline in exports [8]. - Light-duty truck (LDT) sales are expected to grow by 5% in 2025, with the segment potentially turning profitable [8]. - Engine sales volume is anticipated to grow by 5% in 2025, with stable segment margins around 14% [8]. Shareholding Structure - The major shareholders of Sinotruk include CNHTC with a 51% stake and MAN SE with a 25% stake [4]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 8.5% and a 3-month relative performance of -1.1% [5].

31 Mar 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/601633 CH) Wey could be key to FY25 earnings growth Maintain BUY. Great Wall's 4Q24 earnings were a mixed bag, in our view, as revenue missed but GPM and SG&A expenses beat our prior estimates. We believe a stronger model cycle in FY25E than FY24 could be a positive catalyst for its share price. In particular, new Wey-brand models could be key to Great Wall's sales volume and profit growth in FY25E. We ...

Company Insights - Weichai Power (2338 HK/000338 CH) is expected to see a strong expansion in engine profit margins in 2024, with a projected net profit growth of 27% year-on-year to RMB 11.4 billion, aligning with expectations [2] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of RMB 0.347 per share, resulting in a historical high payout ratio of 55%, up from 50% in 2023 [6] - The target prices for Weichai Power have been adjusted to RMB 18.7 and HKD 18.0, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [6] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,579, up 0.41% for the day and 38.31% year-to-date [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.29%, with a year-to-date increase of 48.48% [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a slight increase of 0.15%, with a year-to-date growth of 13.41% [3] Sector Analysis - The healthcare, consumer staples, and energy sectors led gains in the Hong Kong market, while materials, information technology, and real estate sectors faced declines [5] - In the U.S. market, defensive sectors such as consumer staples and healthcare outperformed, while energy and information technology sectors experienced declines [5] - European markets saw declines in information technology, materials, and healthcare, with defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples performing better [5] Future Outlook - Haidilao (6862 HK) is expected to accelerate store openings in FY2025, with a projected net increase of approximately 40 stores, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth [7][9] - The company anticipates an improvement in profit margins, driven by a stable gross margin and operational efficiency enhancements [8] - Atour (ATAT US) plans to open around 500 new hotels in FY2025, aiming for a 30% year-on-year growth in hotel numbers, while closing about 60 underperforming locations [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Giant Biogene, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [3][12]. Core Insights - Giant Biogene reported strong performance in 2024, with revenue increasing by 57% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB 5.5 billion. Revenue from skincare products and medical dressing rose by 62.5% YoY and 41.5% YoY, respectively [1][2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) declined from 83.6% in 2023 to 82.1% in 2024 due to the increased revenue proportion from skincare products and rising marketing costs [1]. - Online revenue surged by 70% YoY, contributing 71.6% to total revenue, which led to an increase in the selling expense ratio by 3.2 percentage points to 36.3% in 2024. Consequently, the attributable net profit margin (NPM) decreased by 4 percentage points to 37.2% [1][2]. Financial Summary - For FY24, revenue is projected at RMB 5,539 million, with a YoY growth of 57.2%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 2,152 million, reflecting a YoY growth of 48.2% [2][13]. - The earnings estimates for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are RMB 7,138 million, RMB 9,320 million, and RMB 11,944 million, respectively, with corresponding YoY growth rates of 28.9%, 30.6%, and 28.2% [2][13]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 42.4x in FY23 to 30.0x in FY24, indicating improved valuation metrics as earnings grow [2][13]. Target Price and Valuation - The target price for Giant Biogene is set at HK$ 79.96, representing an upside of 18.5% from the current price of HK$ 67.45 [3][10]. - The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.9% and a terminal growth rate of 3.0% [8][10]. Share Performance - The market capitalization of Giant Biogene is approximately HK$ 69.87 billion, with a 52-week high of HK$ 72.80 and a low of HK$ 35.70 [3][4]. - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month increase of 5.8% and a 6-month increase of 39.6% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Haidilao and raises the target price to HK$ 20.20, based on an 18x FY25E P/E, up from 16x due to faster expansion and sector re-rating [1][13]. Core Insights - FY24 results showed a small beat primarily driven by robust gross profit margin expansion, with sales increasing by 3% YoY to RMB 42.8 billion, although this was below estimates due to greater-than-expected store closures [1][13]. - The company is expected to experience a mild turnaround in FY25E, supported by potential store expansion acceleration and margin improvements, despite stable same-store sales growth (SSSG) [1][10]. - The "Red Guava" project aims to encourage current store managers to open new restaurants under different brands, with 74 stores already established under 11 new brands as of FY24 [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 42,755 million in FY24 to RMB 44,607 million in FY25, reflecting a 4.3% YoY growth [2][15]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4,700 million in FY24 to RMB 5,213 million in FY25, indicating a 10.3% YoY growth [2][15]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to remain stable at 62.1% for FY25, supported by improved supply chain capabilities and better input costs [11][16]. Store Expansion and Management - Haidilao opened 59 self-owned stores and 3 franchise stores in FY24, resulting in a net decrease of 19 stores due to 70 closures [10]. - For FY25E, the company expects a net increase of approximately 40 stores, equivalent to about 3% YoY growth, with management estimating around 60-70 new openings [10]. - The adoption of multi-store management and digitalization is expected to enhance operational efficiency and staff productivity [10][11]. Earnings Revision - The FY25E net profit forecast has been cut by 10% to RMB 5,192 million, reflecting greater-than-expected store closures and a more conservative outlook on SSSG [11][13]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in gross profit margin, which is expected to positively impact overall profitability [11][13].

2025 年 3 月 27 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 ◼ 药明生物（2269 HK, 买入，目标价：30.94 港元） – 强健需求驱动 25 年加 速增长 药明生物公布亮眼的 24 年业绩，收入同比增长 9.6%，经调整利润（即剔除 XDC 少数股东权益前的利润）同比增长 9.0%，收入和利润增速均接近此前 指引（增长 5-10%）区间的上端。非新冠收入同比增长 13.1%，显示出稳健 的客户需求。管理层预计 25 年收入将增长 12-15%，持续经营（即剔除爱尔 兰疫苗业务）收入同比增长 17-20%。 2H24 业绩展现不俗的改善趋势。24 年下半年收入同比增长 18.3%，相比 24 年上半年的 7.7%的同比增速显著提速。非新冠收入同比增长 13.1%，其中下 半年增长 18.3%。所有业务板块均展现提速趋势，特别是临床前收入下半年 同比强劲增长 54.2%（vs 1H24：同比增长 9.2%）。 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zoomlion is maintained as BUY, despite a downward revision of the target price to RMB9.9 for A-shares and HK$7.4 for H-shares [1][5][6]. Core Views - The 2024 results of Zoomlion were below expectations, primarily due to a slowdown in overseas revenue growth, a reduction in other income, and an increase in inventory turnover days. The company is still viewed positively for its structural overseas growth strategy, particularly in emerging economies [1][4]. - The management is confident in reducing inventory levels in 2025, and there are buying opportunities following the post-results pullback [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, revenue decreased by 3.4% YoY to RMB45.478 billion, while adjusted net profit slightly declined by 1.3% YoY to RMB3.521 billion. The forecast for FY25 and FY26 earnings has been revised down by 7% and 8% respectively [2][4]. - The revenue breakdown for 4Q24 showed a 4% YoY decline to RMB11.1 billion, with domestic revenue dropping by 18% YoY, while overseas revenue grew by 14% YoY [4][7]. - The blended gross margin improved by 0.6 percentage points YoY to 27.5%, driven by higher margins in overseas markets [4][7]. Revenue and Profitability Outlook - The revenue forecast for FY25 is set at RMB52.999 billion, with expected growth of 16.5% YoY, followed by RMB61.848 billion in FY26 and RMB69.277 billion in FY27 [2][10]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to increase to RMB4.177 billion in FY25, RMB4.705 billion in FY26, and RMB5.229 billion in FY27, reflecting a growth trajectory despite recent challenges [2][10]. Market Position and Strategy - Zoomlion has low exposure to the domestic property sector, with only 13% of total sales in 2024 related to property. The company is focusing on infrastructure, wind power installation, and chemical plant construction for growth [4][6]. - Management plans to accelerate overseas market expansion and continue focusing on earth-working, mining, and agricultural machinery as growth drivers [4][6]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for A-shares is based on a 2025E P/E multiple of 19.5x, reflecting a historical average, while the H-share target price incorporates a 30% discount [5][6]. - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 13.5x in FY24 to 11.3x in FY25, indicating a more attractive valuation for investors [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report resumes coverage of China Taiping with a "BUY" rating and a target price (TP) of HK$15, indicating a potential upside of 28.9% from the current price of HK$11.64 [1][2]. Core Insights - China Taiping reported a robust net profit increase of 36.2% year-on-year (YoY) to HK$8.43 billion, although this was 10% to 11% lower than the analyst's and Bloomberg consensus estimates. The increase in income tax charges, which rose approximately six-fold YoY, was a significant factor in this discrepancy [1]. - The new business value (NBV) surged 90% YoY to HK$14.3 billion on a like-for-like basis, driven by strong growth in agency and bancassurance channels, which saw increases of 42% and 400% YoY, respectively [7]. - The report highlights a significant margin expansion across major channels, with the total NBV margin increasing by 17 percentage points YoY to 32.5% in FY24 [1][7]. - The combined ratio for the property and casualty (P&C) segment improved to 98.1%, supporting a remarkable 831% YoY increase in net profit for domestic P&C to HK$804 million [1][7]. - The report projects FY25 NBV to rise by 11% YoY, supported by an improved product mix and solid financial performance [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, net profit is projected at HK$12.8 billion, with an expected increase to HK$14.5 billion in FY25 and HK$16.3 billion in FY26 [8]. - The report indicates a dividend per share (DPS) of HK$0.35 for FY24, reflecting a 16.7% YoY increase, although the payout ratio decreased to 16.9% from 20.1% in FY23 [1][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 11.2% in FY24 to 12.9% in FY25, indicating enhanced profitability [8][17]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, considering various segments including life insurance, domestic and overseas P&C, reinsurance, and asset management [9][12]. - The total fair value of the company is estimated at HK$49.7 billion, leading to a target price of HK$15.0 per share after applying a 10% conglomerate discount [13][14].