Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Minth Group, indicating potential for over 15% return over the next 12 months [1][7][14] Core Views - Minth Group's 2H24 earnings showed mixed results with revenue falling short of expectations while gross profit margin (GPM) exceeded projections. Improved operational efficiency is evident through reduced net debt, lower capital expenditures (capex), and significantly higher free cash flow, which could support future margin enhancements and increased dividend payouts [1][7] - The company is well-positioned for revenue growth in FY25-27E, driven by rapid growth in battery housing revenue and the introduction of new products that are expected to generate substantial income. Battery housing margins are anticipated to improve further in FY25E as capex decreases [1][7] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 23,147 million in FY24A to RMB 26,186 million in FY25E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [2][11] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 2,319 million in FY24A to RMB 2,719 million in FY25E, representing a 17.2% year-on-year growth [2][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 2.02 in FY24A to RMB 2.37 in FY25E [2][11] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 9.9x in FY24A to 8.5x in FY25E, indicating a more attractive valuation [2][11] Share Performance - The current market capitalization of Minth Group is approximately HK$ 24,982.9 million, with a target price set at HK$ 26.00, suggesting a potential upside of 20.9% from the current price of HK$ 21.50 [3][4] - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month increase of 2.6% and a 6-month increase of 48.9% [5] Operational Efficiency - Free cash flow surged from RMB 131 million in FY23 to RMB 1,363 million in FY24, highlighting significant operational improvements [7] - The net gearing ratio is projected to decrease from 15.4% in FY24A to 6.4% in FY25E, indicating a stronger balance sheet [2][11]

Company Analysis - Kuaishou (1024 HK) reported a total revenue of 35.4 billion yuan for Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9%, with adjusted net profit increasing by 8% to 4.7 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [2] - For FY24, total revenue and adjusted net profit are projected to grow by 12% and 72% respectively [2] - The forecast for FY25 indicates a 12% increase in total revenue, with stable adjusted net profit margins, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin business income and improved operational efficiency, although offset by increased AI-related investments [2] - The target price for Kuaishou has been adjusted down to 80.0 HKD from a previous 85.6 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,344, down 2.35% for the day but up 36.94% year-to-date [3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 3.82% in a single day, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 46.58% [3] - The performance of major global indices showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining 0.16% and 0.46% respectively, while the DAX in Germany rose by 1.13% [3] Sector Insights - Sunny Optical Technology (2382 HK) is expected to see revenue and net profit growth of 21% and 146% respectively in 2024, benefiting from strong growth across all business segments and improved product mix [6] - The company is focusing on expanding into automotive, XR, and robotics sectors, which are anticipated to drive profit growth in 2025 and 2026 [6] - The target price for Sunny Optical has been slightly adjusted to 101.47 HKD from 102.89 HKD, reflecting a P/E ratio of 30.3 for 2025 [6] Financial Services - China Taiping (966 HK) reported a 36.2% increase in net profit to 8.43 billion HKD for 2024, although this was below market expectations due to increased tax provisions [11] - The company’s new business value (NBV) grew significantly, with a 90% increase to 14.27 billion HKD, driven by improved value rates [12] - The target price for China Taiping has been set at 15 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 29% based on current valuations [15]

2025 年 3 月 25 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 公司点评 比亚迪（1211 HK/002594 CH，买入，目标价：470 港元/440 元人民币) - 4Q24 高质量盈利为 2025 年盈利增长奠定基础 4Q24 业绩超预期，盈利质量高：比亚迪 4Q24 收入较我们先前预测高 6%。 尽管受到行业价格战的影响，公司剔除比亚迪电子业务后，平均售价连续两 个季度环比提升。4Q24 毛利率降至 17.0%，主要受到会计准则变更（将质保 金从销售费用调整至营业成本）的影响，还原可比口径，4Q24 毛利率应为 21.5%，较我们预期高 0.9 个百分点。4Q24 研发费用较我们预测高约 16% （2024 年研发投入 540 亿元，98%费用化），净利润环比增长 29%至 150 亿 元，较我们的预期高出 14%。 更全面的产品矩阵+出海+电池技术升级+自动驾驶追赶共筑 2025 增长动能： 我们认为公司 4Q24 扎实的业绩表现再次验证规模经济优势。我们预计比亚 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市 ...

2025 年 3 月 20 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 ` 每日投资策略 行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 行业点评 中国重卡板块 - 货车以旧换新补贴涵盖国四和天然气卡车；潍柴成为主要受 惠者 事件: 中国交通运输部、发改委和财政部于 3 月 18 日联合发布了关于实施老 旧营运货车报废更新的通知。2025 年的补贴水平将与 2024 年大致相同。主 要变化包括：(1) 新补贴范围涵盖国三和国四货车的提前报废（去年仅限国三 及以下）；(2) 购买所有货车均可享受补贴（之前仅限柴油货车）。 我们的观点：新的补贴计划增强了我们对今年重卡销售的积极看法，主要由 于: (1) 根据我们的估计，国四重卡保有量规模占总重卡的 30%；(2) 最重要的 是，今年新购车的补贴范围将包括天然气货车，而去年仅包括柴油货车。我 们认为潍柴动力 (2338 HK / 000338 CH, 买入) 将成为主要受益者，因为公司 在天然气重卡发动机市场占有主导地位 (>60%)。我们给予持有评级的中国重 汽 (3808 HK) 也将受益。（链接） 公司点评 腾讯（700 HK；买入；目标价：625.0 港元）- 加大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for INT Medical, expecting a return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [2][18]. Core Insights - INT Medical's revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 13.2% year-on-year to RMB 852 million, slightly below the forecasted 13% due to pressures from value-based pricing (VBP) and intense competition in the CDMO sector [1][2]. - The company achieved a significant gross margin improvement of 5 percentage points, reaching 63.1% in 2024, driven by increased capacity utilization and automation [1]. - Overseas sales are optimistic, with total overseas revenue expected to grow by 24.2% year-on-year to RMB 253 million, accounting for 29.6% of total sales [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to increase from RMB 753 million in 2023 to RMB 1,025 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 20.4% [3]. - The attributable net profit is expected to rise from RMB 192 million in 2024 to RMB 206 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from RMB 1.10 in 2024 to RMB 1.17 in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 6.6% [3]. Valuation - The target price for INT Medical is set at HKD 33.68 based on a 9-year DCF model with a terminal growth rate of 2.0% and a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10.73% [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for INT Medical, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [17]. Core Insights - INT Medical's revenue for 2024 grew by 13.2% YoY to RMB 852 million, which was 13% below the analyst's estimate, primarily due to pressures on its CDMO business from VBP and increased competition [1]. - The company's attributable net profit increased by 22.7% YoY to RMB 192 million, with a net profit margin improvement of 1.7 percentage points [1]. - The target price is set at HK$33.68, reflecting a 25% upside from the current price of HK$26.95 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are RMB 1,025 million, RMB 1,225 million, and RMB 1,398 million, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 20.4%, 19.5%, and 14.1% [2]. - Attributable net profit for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E is expected to be RMB 206 million, RMB 245 million, and RMB 280 million, with YoY growth rates of 7.5%, 18.7%, and 14.4% [2]. - The gross margin improved to 63.1% in 2024, up 5 percentage points, driven by enhanced capacity utilization and increased automation [7]. Market and Operational Insights - INT Medical expanded its overseas customer base to 281, covering over 86 countries and regions, with overseas revenue growing by 24.2% YoY to RMB 253 million, representing 29.6% of total sales [7]. - The company has implemented cost-reduction and efficiency-enhancement measures, which are expected to stabilize gross margins despite the negative impact of VBP [7]. - The report anticipates solid revenue growth for INT Medical in 2025E, with revenue and attributable net profit projected to increase by 20.4% YoY and 7.5% YoY, respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dmall Group Co., Ltd. (2586 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 16.00, based on a 6.0x price-to-sales ratio for FY25 [1][10]. Core Insights - Dmall achieved breakeven for FY24, with total revenue increasing by 17% year-on-year to RMB 18.6 billion, and adjusted net profit improving to RMB 298 million from a loss of RMB 2.77 billion in FY23, driven by strong growth in core retail services and operational efficiency [1][2]. - The company is focusing on AI retail to capture new growth opportunities, having launched several AI agent products that are expected to contribute to revenue growth in the long term [1][2]. - For FY25, management anticipates revenue growth of 15-20% and further margin expansion, although revenue forecasts for FY25-26 have been adjusted downward due to slower customer acquisition [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 revenue reached RMB 18.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17% [4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved from 35.0% in FY23 to 40.1% in FY24, while the adjusted net profit margin rose from -14.7% to 1.6% [3][12]. - The retail core service cloud revenue grew by 39% to RMB 1.81 billion, with AIoT solutions seeing a 65% increase to RMB 1.02 billion [2][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY25 are set at RMB 2.19 billion, with expected growth rates of 17.8% for FY26 and 14.1% for FY27 [4][12]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 134.4 million in FY25, with significant growth expected in subsequent years [4][12]. - The report indicates a projected increase in adjusted net profit margins to 6.1% in FY25 and 17.6% in FY27 [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Dmall Inc, with a target price raised to HK$16.00 from the previous HK$8.50, indicating a potential upside of 22.5% from the current price of HK$13.06 [1][3]. Core Insights - Dmall achieved full-year breakeven in FY24, with total revenue increasing by 17% YoY to RMB1.86 billion and an adjusted net profit of RMB29.8 million, a significant turnaround from an adjusted net loss of RMB277 million in FY23 [1][2]. - The company is focusing on AI retail to drive long-term growth, having launched several AI agent products that are expected to contribute to revenue in the long term [1][6]. - For FY25E, management anticipates total revenue growth of 15-20% YoY, with further margin expansion expected [1]. Financial Performance - FY24 revenue was RMB1.86 billion, up 17.3% YoY, with adjusted net profit of RMB29.8 million compared to a loss of RMB233 million in FY23 [2][10]. - Revenue from the retail core service cloud solution grew by 39% YoY to RMB1.81 billion, with AIoT solutions revenue increasing by 65% YoY to RMB1.02 billion [6][10]. - Gross profit margin improved from 35.0% in FY23 to 40.1% in FY24, and adjusted net margin rose from -14.7% to 1.6% [6][10]. Revenue Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for FY25E and FY26E have been revised downwards due to a slower customer acquisition pace, with FY25E revenue now expected at RMB2.19 billion, a decrease of 14.6% from previous estimates [7][10]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected to be RMB134 million, reflecting a growth of 351% YoY [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of HK$16.00 is based on a valuation multiple of 6.0x FY25E EV/sales, which aligns with the average EV/sales of global SaaS peers [3][8]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in operating profit, projecting RMB121 million for FY25E, compared to a loss in previous years [7][10].

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.46% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 3.96% year-to-date [1][2] - European markets saw gains, particularly in Germany, where military stocks surged following a historic parliamentary decision to increase defense spending [3] - US markets declined, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 2%, driven by losses in communication services and consumer discretionary sectors [3][4] Industry Insights Real Estate - The report recommends increasing allocation to quality real estate stocks, citing policy support from cities like Shenzhen and Suzhou easing housing purchase restrictions [5] - Strong sales data indicates a robust recovery, with new home transaction volume up 2% year-on-year and second-hand home transactions up 38% [5] - The report anticipates a 70% probability of positive impacts on the sector in Q2, driven by improved consumer sentiment and reduced concerns over financing issues [5] Technology - Tencent Music reported a 8% year-on-year revenue increase to 7.5 billion yuan, with a 45% rise in non-IFRS net profit, driven by improved gross margins and cost control [6] - Xiaomi's revenue and adjusted net profit grew by 49% and 69% respectively, with strong performance in IoT and electric vehicle segments [12] - XPeng Motors achieved a 59% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase, with expectations for continued growth driven by new model launches and international expansion [10][11] Healthcare - WuXi AppTec's revenue decreased by 2.73% to 39.2 billion yuan, but showed signs of improvement in Q4, with a 70.1% revenue growth in TIDES business [13][14] - The company anticipates a 10-15% revenue growth in 2025, supported by a significant increase in orders [14][15] Consumer Goods - Anta Sports is expected to see growth driven by its Saucony brand, which is projected to grow by 30-40% [16][17] - The company is implementing a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy, which is expected to enhance long-term growth prospects despite short-term sales impacts [17][18] Company Specifics Tencent Music - The company reported a 45% increase in non-IFRS net profit, driven by strong growth in online music services and improved operational efficiency [6] Xiaomi - The company raised its electric vehicle delivery target to 350,000 units for 2025, reflecting strong demand and growth potential in the EV market [12] XPeng Motors - The company expects to achieve quarterly breakeven by Q4 2025, with projected sales growth supported by new model launches [10][11] WuXi AppTec - The company plans to increase capital expenditures by 75-100% in 2025 to support growth in its TIDES business, which has seen significant order increases [14][15] Anta Sports - The company is focusing on expanding its Saucony brand and implementing a DTC strategy to enhance customer experience and drive sales growth [16][17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [28]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight rebound in U.S. retail sales growth in February, but it remains significantly below market expectations, with a month-on-month growth rate of 0.2%, lower than the anticipated 0.6%. January's growth was revised down from -0.9% to -1.2% [4][5]. - Consumer spending is showing signs of slowing down, particularly in durable goods, sports and entertainment products, and clothing. The food service sector experienced its largest decline in 2023, with a drop of 1.5% in February [4][5]. - The report indicates that uncertainty stemming from recent policies, including tariffs and government spending cuts, is likely to suppress overall demand, impacting both corporate investment and household durable goods consumption [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting while reiterating its commitment to controlling inflation, but it will also be cautious of economic downturn risks [4][5]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - February retail and food service sales showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of 0.2%, with the largest category, automotive and parts sales, declining by 0.4% after a significant drop of 3.7% in January [4][5]. - Online shopping rebounded from a decline of 2.4% in January to a growth of 2.4% in February, although it remains below the average growth rate from previous years [4][5]. - The report notes a rising household savings rate, indicating a potential impact on consumer confidence due to the uncertainty created by recent policies [4][5]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that inflation uncertainty and economic downturn risks are increasing, with the Michigan long-term inflation expectations rising to 3.9%, the highest level since 1993 [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve is projected to pause interest rate cuts in May, June, and July, with potential cuts of 1-2 times in September or December [4][5].