29 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Li Auto Inc. (LI US) Proven resilience gives us confidence in BEVs Li Auto's 2Q24 operating expenses beat our forecast and such cost control could extend into 2H24. We are of the view that Li Auto has made a comeback on sales volume with resilient pricing and margins. Although some investors may wait for more details of its new BEVs, we think it could be oversold now. 2Q24 beat on tightened operating expenses. Li Auto's revenue ...

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Outperform" for the next 12 months, indicating expected performance above market benchmarks [10]. Core Insights - NVIDIA reported a quarterly revenue of $30 billion for 2QFY25, a year-on-year increase of 122.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.3%, surpassing management guidance and Bloomberg consensus [1][4]. - The data center business remains the primary growth driver, contributing $26.3 billion, which is 87.5% of total sales, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.4% [1][5]. - NVIDIA anticipates a revenue of $32.5 billion for 3QFY25, reflecting an 8.2% quarter-on-quarter growth, higher than Bloomberg's consensus [1][4]. - The company is focusing on the delayed shipment of the Blackwell series, expected to ramp up production in Q4, which is projected to contribute billions in revenue [1][5]. - NVIDIA's gross margin guidance remains stable at around 75% for the year, despite concerns regarding the impact of Blackwell's delays [1][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - NVIDIA's 2QFY25 revenue reached $30 billion, with a gross margin of 75.7%, slightly above guidance [1][4]. - The data center segment's revenue was $26.3 billion, with a significant year-on-year growth of 154% [5][6]. - The company achieved a net profit of $16.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 168.2% [4][6]. Business Segments Performance - Data center revenue accounted for 87.5% of total sales, with compute revenue contributing $22.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 162.5% [5][6]. - Gaming and professional visualization segments showed modest growth, with gaming revenue at $2.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [6][7]. - Automotive revenue reached $346 million, with a year-on-year growth of 36.8% [6][7]. Future Outlook - NVIDIA expects continued strong demand for AI computing, with major cloud providers' capital expenditures projected to grow significantly [1][5]. - The company has approved an additional $50 billion stock buyback program, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [1][5]. - The anticipated strong demand for the Blackwell series is expected to drive substantial growth in the data center business into next year [1][5].

Proya 化妆品 (603605 CH) 同行中的最佳收益 ， 强劲势头持续 普雅（Proya）在2024年第二季度的业绩超出市场预期，收入和净利润分别同比增 长41%和37%，上半年整体收入和净利润分别同比增长37.9%和40.5%，主要得益于 核心品牌的销售加速增长，达到37.7%的年同比增速。其盈利排名同行业之首。202 4年上半年的毛利率下降了0.7个百分点，稳定在69.8%，同时销售费用比率增加了3 个百分点至47%，这是由于618促销周期的延长、单个直播营销成本持续上升以及高 电子商务退货率等因素的影响。全年指引方面，公司计划维持毛利率在约70%的水 平，并保持净利润率略为上升的趋势。维持"买入"评级，目标价调整至人民币133.86 元，基于2024年预测市盈率为35倍。 英雄 SKU 的表现优于持续受益的收益。 Proya 继续 目标价格 RMB133.86 (上一个 TP RMB135.57) 上 / 下 55.8% 当前价格 RMB85 .90 中国消费必需品 张苗族 (852) 3761 8910 张庙 @ cmbi. com. hk Bella LI (852) 3757 6202 b ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 106.4, unchanged from previous assessments [2][3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in the first half of 2024, with revenue increasing by 38% year-on-year to RMB 8.3 billion, and net profit rising by 108% to RMB 0.987 billion, driven by improved gross margins and cost optimization [2][3]. - The growth was attributed to robust demand in artificial intelligence, upgrades in Eagle Stream, stable automotive orders, inventory replenishment in consumer electronics, and expanded profit margins [2][3]. - However, a slowdown in consumer electronics demand is anticipated in the second half of 2024, with revenue and net profit for the first half expected to account for 52% and 56% of the full-year forecasts, respectively [2][3]. Revenue Summary - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 16.051 billion for FY24E, with a year-on-year growth of 19% [13]. - The gross profit is projected to be RMB 4.091 billion, with a gross margin of 25.5% [13]. - Net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 1.762 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26% [13]. Segment Performance - The PCB segment, which accounts for 58% of sales, grew by 25% year-on-year, while the substrate segment saw a remarkable 94% increase [2]. - The PCBA business also performed well, with a 42% year-on-year growth, benefiting from increased PCB sales [2]. Financial Projections - The report projects a revenue of RMB 18.216 billion for FY25E and RMB 20.813 billion for FY26E, indicating continued growth [13]. - The net profit is expected to rise to RMB 2.174 billion in FY25E and RMB 2.791 billion in FY26E [13]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a forward P/E ratio of approximately 30 times for FY24, which is considered reasonable compared to the historical average of 32.5 times [2][3]. - The report highlights that the estimated gross margin for the second half of 2024 will return to around 25%, influenced by weakening demand and rising raw material costs [3].

MN Proya Cosmetics (603605 CH) Best earnings among peers, strong momentum sustained Proya's 2Q24 results beat consensus with revenue/net profit +41%/37% YoY (1H24 revenue/net profit +37.9/40.5% YoY), mostly contributed by the accelerated sales growth of main brand to 37.7% YoY. The earnings ranked the top among peers. 1H24 GPM dropped by 0.7 ppt. and steadied at 69.8%, accompanied by the 3 ppt. increase in selling expense ratio to 47%, due to the prolonged 618 promotion cycle, continuous rise in unit cost o ...

CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update MN Shennan Circuit (002916 CH) Earnings Summary SCC released 1H24 results. Revenue went up by 38% YoY to RMB8.3bn, with double-digit growth across all segments (PCB/Substrate/PCBA: 25%/94%/42% YoY). NP increased by 108% YoY to RMB987mn, on higher GPM (26.2% in 1H24 vs. 22.9%/23.8% in 1H/2H23) and cost optimization. SCC delivered strong 1H24 results, driven by 1) strong AI demand, 2) Eagle Stream upgrades, 3) robust auto orders, 4) inventory ...

农夫山泉(9633 HK) 1H24 错过 ， 茶叶成为最大的利润贡献者 农夫的 1H24 收入 由于包装水部门市场份额下滑，公司未能达到其指引。我 们预计该部门的收入增长率将保持在低个位数，因为市场份额的恢复需要时间 。茶饮料部门的收入同比增长59%，其收入份额接近水类的38%，营业利润率 （OPM）比水类高10个百分点。茶饮料取代了包装水成为公司的主要利润驱 动因素。鉴于下半年不利的环境和管理层态度的软化，我们认为公司在2024财 年实现两位数收入增长的目标具有挑战性。基于2024财年市盈率40倍，我们 将目标价下调13%至50.38港元，以反映较低的盈利预测。维持买入评级。 水部门受到市场份额损失的伤害 2024年上半财年（1H24）收入同比增长8.4 %，低于预期，主要是由于包装水业务收入同比下降18%，原因是在2月因网 上谣言导致品牌受损后市场占有率下降。公司观察到7月和8月市场占有率有所 恢复，但要回到2月前的水平还需要时间。我们预计全年包装水业务收入将实 现个位数低增长，这反映了中大型水业务增长对小型水业务下滑的部分抵消作 用。包装水业务的营业利润率（OPM）较上年同期下降了4.2个百分点，这是 ...

盛益科技(600183 CH) 上半年收益稳健 ； 高铜价在短期内影响不大 圣益科技发布了其2024年上半财年的业绩。收入同比增长22.2%/环比增长10.6 %，达到人民币96亿，主要得益于AI服务器的强劲需求、汽车订单的增长和库 存回补。同时，毛利率提升至21.6%（对比2023年上半年的19.3%和下半年的1 9.2%），得益于利用率的改善及高利润产品占比增加。因此，净利润增长了68. 0%/环比增长53.1%，达到9.32亿。2024年上半财年的收入/净利润占我们全年 预测的47%/43%。从季度角度看，第二季度的收入/净利润分别同比增长26%/7 6%、环比增长18%/38%，而毛利率提升至21.8%（对比2024年第一季度的21.3 %和2023年第二季度的18.9%）。鉴于铜价预计保持高位，我们认为圣益的CC L业务将逐步恢复。目前股价较过去五年历史平均值低一个标准差。考虑到铜价 可能维持高位，我们预计圣益的CCL业务将逐渐复苏。 维持买入价在 26.41 元不变。 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Intron Tech with a target price of HK$2.35, down from the previous target of HK$5.53, reflecting a significant potential upside from the current price of HK$1.2 [4][13]. Core Insights - Intron Tech reported revenue of RMB 2.84 billion for the first half of fiscal year 2024, representing an 8% year-on-year increase, but net profit decreased by 37% to RMB 977 million due to increased competition and pricing pressure from automotive OEMs, leading to a gross margin decline to 15.9% [1][2]. - The management expects a recovery in net profit margins in the second half of fiscal year 2024, driven by new orders in the new energy and ADAS sectors, as well as expansion into overseas markets [2][4]. - The report has adjusted earnings per share forecasts for fiscal years 2024 and 2025 down by 43%-49% due to the weak performance in the first half of 2024 and anticipated cost pressures [2][4]. Revenue Summary - Intron Tech's revenue is projected to grow by 9% year-on-year in fiscal year 2024, while net profit is expected to decline by 29% [2][12]. - The revenue breakdown shows strong growth in the new energy (16%), automation and connectivity (13%), and cloud server segments (25%), while body control, safety, and powertrain segments experienced weaker growth [1][11]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 15.9%, down from 20.6% in the same period last year, reflecting pressures in the automotive supply chain [1][12]. Financial Projections - For fiscal year 2024, revenue is estimated at RMB 6.32 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 1.02 billion and a net profit of RMB 225 million [9][10]. - The projected earnings per share for fiscal year 2024 is RMB 0.21, with a significant decrease from previous estimates [10][12]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profit margins in fiscal year 2025, with net profit expected to rise to RMB 371 million [2][9]. Valuation Metrics - Intron Tech's current price-to-earnings ratios are 5.4x for fiscal year 2024 and 3.2x for fiscal year 2025, which are considered attractive compared to industry peers [2][13]. - The report highlights that Intron Tech is undervalued, especially given its high return on equity (ROE) levels [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating to the company, indicating a potential return exceeding 15% over the next 12 months [15]. Core Insights - The company reported strong growth in innovative drug sales, with a revenue of 6.51 billion RMB in the first half of the fiscal year 2024, including a 185 million USD upfront payment from GSK related to the licensing of HS-20093 [1]. - The innovative drug sales accounted for 77% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 31.6% when excluding collaboration revenue [1]. - The company plans to distribute approximately 40% of its net profit of 2.73 billion RMB as dividends [1]. - The target price for the company's stock has been raised to HK$24.11 from HK$22.06, reflecting a 17% upside from the current price of HK$20.60 [1]. Financial Performance - For FY24E, the company expects total revenue to grow by 21% to 12.23 billion RMB, with organic revenue growth projected at 14.3% and 14.1% for FY24E and FY25E, respectively [3][4]. - The net profit is expected to increase by 33.3% to 4.37 billion RMB in FY24E, followed by a decrease of 25.1% in FY25E [4][12]. - The company has improved cost efficiency, with sales expense ratio decreasing to 33.7% from 37.5% in FY23 [1]. Product Pipeline and Growth Drivers - The company is expanding the indications for aumolertinib, with new drug applications accepted for postoperative adjuvant therapy and maintenance treatment for locally advanced unresectable non-small cell lung cancer [1]. - Aumolertinib's sales are expected to grow by 22% by the end of FY24, reaching 438 million RMB, with a target of 600 million RMB by 2026 [1]. - The company is also advancing its ADC pipeline, with HS-20093 showing promising early signals in clinical trials for small cell lung cancer [3]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - As an early entrant in the third-generation EGFR-TKI market in China, the company is well-positioned to capture market share with its innovative products [1]. - The company is expected to submit another NDA for aumolertinib in combination with chemotherapy in Q4 2024, differentiating itself from domestic competitors [1]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a DCF valuation with a target price of HK$24.11, based on a weighted average cost of capital of 8.52% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5% [5][7]. - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 25.6x for FY24E, reflecting a strong growth outlook [12].