美国经济 通胀超预期放缓显示消费已经转弱 年 4 月 14 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind，招银国际环球市场 0 2 4 6 8 10 CPI 核心CPI CPI预测 核心CPI预测 同比(%) (5) 0 5 10 15 20 非耐用品 耐用品 服务扣除房租 房租 (%) 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报 告 1 MN CPI 增速低于预期，能源价格大幅下跌。3 月 CPI 季调后环比增速从 2 月 的 0.22%降至-0.05%，低于市场预期的 0.11%，为 2020 年 5 月以来首次 环比下降；CPI 同比增速从 2.8%降至 2.4%。食品价格环比增速从 0.2%反 弹至 3 月的 0.4%，主要是家庭食品价格从 0%升至 0.5%。能源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Anta Sports, with a target price trimmed to HK$ 119.08, based on a 24x FY25E P/E ratio [1][3]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is viewed positively, with the acquisition price considered attractive and significant potential for expansion in the mid-priced outdoor industry and European markets [1][11]. - Despite a slight decline in retail sales growth in March-April 2025, the outlook for Q2 2025 remains cautiously optimistic due to various growth drivers [11][12]. - The company's retail sales growth in Q1 2025 was satisfactory, with improvements in inventory management and a better-than-expected profit margin [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 78,235 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [2][12]. - Net profit for FY25E is estimated at RMB 14,961.4 million, reflecting a decrease of 12.7% year-on-year [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is projected at RMB 4.66, down from RMB 5.34 in FY24A [2][12]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Anta Sports is approximately HK$ 226.67 billion, with a current stock price of HK$ 83.85, indicating a potential upside of 42% to the target price [3][4]. - The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 17x for FY25E, which is considered attractive compared to its 5-year average of 25x [1][12]. Acquisition Details - Anta Sports announced the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for USD 290 million (approximately RMB 23.5 billion), with expected sales of EUR 325 million and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 12 million for FY25E [11][18]. - The valuation metrics for the acquisition indicate a P/S ratio of approximately 0.8x, which is lower than both Anta's group average and the global sports industry average [11][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for BOE Varitronix, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [10][20]. Core Insights - The management believes that the recent US reciprocal tariffs will have a limited impact on financials due to low US sales exposure, which is only 2.6% in FY23 [9][10]. - BOE Varitronix is optimistic about the ramp-up of capacity in Vietnam by 2025 and has already secured orders from US and South Korean customers [9]. - The company plans to focus on overseas market expansion and adjust its product mix to mitigate tariff risks in the long term [9][10]. - A share repurchase plan announced on April 11 demonstrates management's confidence in the business outlook [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HK$10,760 million in FY23A to HK$22,228 million in FY27E, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 14.6% [2][17]. - Net profit is expected to recover from HK$391.3 million in FY24A to HK$738.7 million in FY27E, with a notable growth of 29.4% in FY25E [2][17]. - The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.1x in FY24A to 5.4x in FY27E, indicating an attractive valuation [2][10]. Target Price and Upside Potential - The target price for BOE Varitronix is set at HK$9.63, representing an upside potential of 91.8% from the current price of HK$5.02 [3][10]. Share Performance and Market Data - The market capitalization of BOE Varitronix is approximately HK$3,975.8 million, with an average turnover of HK$35.3 million over the last three months [4]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 30.9% over the past month and 17.4% over the past three months [6].

2025 年 4 月 11 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 20,682 | 2.06 | 21.32 | | 恒生国企 | 7,668 | 1.76 | 32.94 | | 恒生科技 | 4,814 | 2.66 | 27.88 | | 上证综指 | 3,224 | 1.16 | 8.36 | | 深证综指 | 1,868 | 2.46 | 1.66 | | 深圳创业板 | 1,901 | 2.27 | 0.48 | | 美国道琼斯 | 39,594 | -2.50 | 5.05 | | 美国标普 500 | 5,268 | -3.46 | 10.45 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 16,387 | -4.31 | 9.17 | | 德国 DAX | 20,563 | 4.53 | 22.75 | | 法国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for JD.com with a target price of US$55.00, indicating a potential upside of 54.6% from the current price of US$35.58 [2][11]. Core Insights - JD.com is expected to achieve solid revenue and earnings growth, with total revenue projected at RMB291.9 billion for 1Q25E, reflecting a 12.2% year-over-year increase, driven by a nationwide subsidy program [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to grow by 21% year-over-year, translating to a non-GAAP net profit margin of 3.7% [1]. - JD.com is well-positioned to benefit from the nationwide trade-in and subsidy program, particularly in the electronics and home appliance categories, with less exposure to potential tariff increases compared to industry peers [1]. - The company aims to drive quality and sustainable earnings growth in its core business while enhancing shareholder returns, which are seen as key long-term stock price drivers [1]. - Incremental investments in food delivery and lower-tier city expansion are expected to gradually impact financials, but JD.com will maintain a disciplined approach to business expansion [1]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, JD.com is projected to generate revenue of RMB1,267.79 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 9.4% [7]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is estimated at RMB52.20 billion, reflecting a growth of 9% year-over-year [7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB33.94 for FY25E, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.0 [7]. - JD.com’s revenue from the Electronics and Home Appliance segment is projected to grow by 14% year-over-year in 1Q25E [6]. Share Performance - Over the past month, JD.com’s stock has decreased by 12.7%, while it has increased by 7.5% over the past three months [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 512 RMB, based on a 36x FY25 forecasted P/E ratio, aligning with the industry average [1][2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated localization trend in the semiconductor industry, with a projected revenue growth of 35.1% year-on-year to 29.8 billion RMB in 2024, driven by breakthroughs in multiple new products in the integrated circuit equipment sector [1][2]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted to grow by 44.2% year-on-year to 5.6 billion RMB, with an improved net profit margin of 18.8% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates a revenue increase of 39.3% year-on-year to 8.2 billion RMB, exceeding consensus expectations [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is projected at 30.9 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 39.7%, and for FY25, revenue is expected to reach 39.0 billion RMB, reflecting a 26.5% increase [3]. - The net profit for FY24 is estimated at 5.8 billion RMB, a 48.9% increase from the previous year, while FY25's net profit is projected at 7.5 billion RMB, growing by 30.0% [3]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 43.7% in FY24 and 44.3% in FY25, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [3][10]. Market Position and Trends - The company has seen a steady increase in market share due to continuous innovation and successful mass production of new products, including capacitive coupling plasma etching equipment and atomic layer deposition equipment [2]. - The report highlights that the consolidation within the Chinese semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate, benefiting leading companies like the one under review [2]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on China is deemed minimal in the short term, as the company generates its revenue solely from the domestic market [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 512 RMB, based on a 36 times FY25 forecasted P/E ratio, aligning with the industry average [1][2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated localization trend in the semiconductor industry, with a projected revenue growth of 35.1% year-on-year to 29.8 billion RMB in 2024, driven by breakthroughs in integrated circuit equipment and an increase in market share [1][2]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted to grow by 44.2% year-on-year to 5.6 billion RMB, with an improved net profit margin of 18.8% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company anticipates a revenue increase of 39.3% year-on-year to 8.2 billion RMB, exceeding consensus expectations [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is projected at 30.9 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 39.7%, and net profit expected to reach 5.8 billion RMB, reflecting a 48.9% increase [3]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 43.7% in FY24, improving to 44.3% in FY25 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 10.93 RMB for FY25, with a P/E ratio of 39.4 times [3]. Market Position and Trends - The company has seen a steady increase in market share due to continuous innovation in core product lines, including successful mass production of new products such as capacitive coupling plasma etching equipment and atomic layer deposition equipment [2]. - The report anticipates a 30.8% revenue growth for 2025, driven by ongoing market share gains and new product launches [2]. - The integration within the Chinese semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate, benefiting leading companies like the one under review [2].

2025 年 4 月 10 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观点评 中国经济-贸易战 2.0 时期的政策 宏观及公司点评 全球市场观察 中美处于谈判之前 "胆小鬼游戏"阶段，情况可能会先恶化，然后再好转。中 美冲突可能会先升级，中国对美国关税做出强硬反应，包括反制关税、关键 原材料出口管制、削减对美投资、限制技术转让和人民币可控式贬值等，而 美国可能祭出定向金融制裁等威胁。 就经济影响而言，贸易战更像疫情而非金融危机，因为两者都是供给冲击。 贸易战对经济增长的负面影响应该小于疫情封锁，因为前者主要影响本国与 对手国之间的跨境贸易、投资和供应链活动，而后者则同时影响跨境和国内 经济活动。但贸易战影响的持续时间可能比疫情更长，因为战争会破坏互信， 并在国家之间播下仇恨种子。 为对冲贸易战影响，中国可能会降低存款准备金率和 LPR，并加大财政刺激 力度，以提振股市、房地产市场和消费需求。中国将继续推进科技自主自强， 以降低对脱钩断链风险的脆弱性。中国将加强与非美地区的经贸投资联系， 加快贸易地区多元化。尽管立场强硬，但中国将保持谈判之门敞开，一项全 面协议——或许包括扩大财政刺激、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Alibaba, with a target price of US$157.00, reflecting a potential upside of 49.8% from the current price of US$104.78 [2][9]. Core Insights - Alibaba is expected to achieve in-line revenue growth and adjusted EBITA for 4QFY25, driven by strong GMV growth and improved monetization rates in its core domestic e-commerce business [1][5]. - The cloud business is anticipated to see accelerated year-over-year revenue growth, supported by robust public cloud performance and contributions from AI cloud services [1][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the AI era and potential consumption stimulus policies, with non-core businesses projected to reach profitability within 1-2 years [1][5]. Financial Performance - For 4QFY25, Alibaba's revenue is estimated at RMB237.5 billion, representing a 7% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITA is forecasted to rise by 36% year-over-year to RMB32.6 billion, resulting in a 13.7% adjusted EBITA margin [5]. - The customer management revenue (CMR) is expected to grow by 10% year-over-year, driven by GMV growth and increased monetization rates [5]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group is projected to achieve 18% year-over-year revenue growth, while AIDC is expected to grow by 26% year-over-year [5]. Earnings Summary - Revenue forecasts for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E are RMB996.979 billion, RMB1,090.438 billion, and RMB1,173.876 billion, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 5.9%, 9.4%, and 7.7% [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit for FY25E is estimated at RMB160.356 billion, with an adjusted EPS of RMB65.53 [6][8]. Valuation - The target price of US$157.00 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, translating to 16.9x FY25E PE (non-GAAP) [9]. - The valuation includes contributions from various segments, with Taobao and Tmall Group valued at US$80.8 per ADS and the Cloud Intelligence Group at US$33.1 per ADS [9][10].

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Buy" for companies with strong domestic substitution potential, such as SMIC (981 HK), Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK), and Northern Huachuang (002371 CH) [2][3][8] Core Insights - The report highlights that the trend of domestic substitution in China's semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate due to increasing geopolitical risks and potential new tariffs from the U.S. [2][3] - Companies involved in wafer foundry, semiconductor equipment manufacturing, and chip design, particularly those focusing on artificial intelligence and analog semiconductors, are likely to benefit from this trend [2][3] - The report anticipates significant volatility in global stock markets in the near term, prompting investors to seek safer investment strategies, such as high-dividend defensive stocks [2] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Manufacturing - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is not currently affected by the new tariffs, but future policies may impact overseas demand for Chinese companies' foundry services. Local foundries are expected to benefit from a recovery in downstream demand and an increase in orders returning to China. Recommended stocks include Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK, Buy) [3][4] Semiconductor Equipment - Although semiconductor equipment is included in the tariff scope, Chinese manufacturers have minimal exposure to U.S. revenues, suggesting limited impact. European semiconductor equipment companies may face greater challenges. Recommended stock is Northern Huachuang (002371 CH, Buy) [3][4] Semiconductor Chip Design (Logic Chips) - Logic chip design companies are expected to benefit from the trend of localization, with a focus on self-sufficiency in artificial intelligence. However, some advanced process logic chips may still face foundry risks [3] Semiconductor Chip Design (Analog Chips) - Analog chip design companies are also expected to benefit from increased domestic substitution. Recommended stocks include Zhaoxin Microelectronics (300782 CH, Hold) and Beike Microelectronics (2149 HK, Buy), as domestic companies are likely to have a stronger desire to replace U.S. firms like Texas Instruments and ADI [3][4] Overall Market Outlook - Companies with significant revenue from the U.S. may face stock price pressure in the short term due to tariff impacts. In the medium to long term, tariffs could delay downstream demand recovery and lead to order cancellations, affecting the global semiconductor supply chain. Companies benefiting from domestic substitution and self-sufficiency are expected to perform better [3][4]