证券研究报告 湖南裕能 (301358 CH) 穿越周期的铁锂正极龙头 2026 年 1 月 16 日│中国内地 新能源及动力系统 首次覆盖湖南裕能并给予"买入"评级，给予 26 年 22 倍 PE，目标价 114.18 元。公司为磷酸铁锂龙头企业，技术积淀深厚，成本及费用控制优异，在行 业下行周期表现较强盈利韧性，未来行业供需有望反转开启涨价周期，高压 实产品研发及客户导入领先行业，看好公司在上行周期中实现量价利齐升。 行业：磷酸铁锂需求增速高，有望步入涨价周期 磷酸铁锂凭借低成本、长循环、高安全的优势，在动力电池正极的渗透率中 稳步提升，且高增长的储能领域中磷酸铁锂为绝对主流路线，22-24 年磷酸 铁锂行业需求复合增速达 72%，远高于电池行业整体 38%的增速。往后看， 我们预计 25-27 年铁锂需求增速达 63%/49%/29%，需求仍然具备相较于锂 电行业整体的超额增速，25-27 年铁锂产能利用率达 72%/75%/81%，供需 有望逐步逐年收紧，需求高速增长+新增供给放缓+企业反内卷共识一致背 景下，我们认为未来三年磷酸铁锂有望步入涨价周期。此外，在碳酸锂价格 上涨的背景下，铁锂厂商也有望实 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Insights - The report highlights Alibaba's unique position in the Chinese internet sector, leveraging AI to enhance consumer experiences across various platforms, aiming to create a one-stop solution for user needs [1] - The rapid growth of the Qianwen app, surpassing 100 million monthly active users, indicates significant commercial opportunities as AI is expected to handle 60%-70% of routine tasks in the digital world over the next two years [2] - Alibaba's comprehensive consumer ecosystem, covering various needs such as clothing, food, accommodation, transportation, and entertainment, is expected to strengthen user loyalty and support long-term performance growth [3] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The target price is set at HKD 175.30 for the Hong Kong stock and USD 180.00 for the US stock, corresponding to 27.5x and 21.9x FY27-28 non-GAAP forecast PE [5][18] User Growth and Engagement - The Qianwen app has achieved over 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch, significantly exceeding management expectations [2] - The app supports over 400 task types, enhancing user engagement across various sectors, including education and healthcare [2] Ecosystem and Market Position - Alibaba has built a robust consumer ecosystem over nearly 30 years, covering essential consumer needs and creating competitive barriers through cross-channel marketing [3] - The introduction of additional transaction subsidies in the Qianwen app has provided a price advantage over competitors in food delivery and flight booking [4] Financial Projections - The non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY26-28 are maintained at CNY 94 billion, CNY 110 billion, and CNY 138 billion respectively [5][16] - Revenue projections for FY26-28 are CNY 1,030 billion, CNY 1,120 billion, and CNY 1,218 billion, reflecting growth rates of 3.4%, 8.7%, and 8.8% respectively [10][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to $440 from $370 [7]. Core Insights - The management expressed strong confidence in AI demand, stating it is "real" and that silicon supply remains a bottleneck [1][29]. - The company has raised its long-term revenue growth target from a CAGR of 15%-20% to 25% [1]. - Capital expenditures (CapEx) for 2026 are projected to surge to $52-56 billion, significantly higher than the previous year's $41 billion, indicating a robust response to structural AI demand growth [3][14]. - The company expects revenue growth of nearly 30% year-over-year in 2026, with a long-term revenue CAGR for AI server processors adjusted to mid-to-high 50% for 2024-2029 [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Rating - The investment rating is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $440 [7]. AI Demand - AI server processor revenue growth guidance has been raised to a CAGR of mid-to-high 50% for 2024-2029, reflecting strong growth confidence [2]. - Customer feedback indicates positive ROI from investments in AI infrastructure, with demand remaining strong due to insatiable computational needs [2][29]. Capital Expenditures and Expansion - The company forecasts 2026 CapEx at $52-56 billion, with 70-80% allocated to advanced processes, particularly 2nm and A16 technologies [3][14]. - Global expansion includes the ramp-up of facilities in Arizona, Japan, and Germany, with significant capacity increases planned [3][30]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q4 2025 reached 62.3%, exceeding guidance, driven by high capacity utilization and cost improvements [4][28]. - The company anticipates further gross margin improvement to 64% in Q1 2026, despite potential short-term dilution from new technologies [4][28]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2026-2027 have been increased by 9.8% and 19.7%, respectively, with net profit estimates raised by 22.8% and 29.2% [5][25]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of $2.412 billion in 2026, with a projected PE ratio of 30x based on 2026 EPS of 93 New Taiwan Dollars [5][25].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for WuXi AppTec (2268 HK) is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 82.24 [8][14]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec is expected to see significant revenue growth in 2025, with revenue, gross profit, net profit, and adjusted net profit projected to increase by over 45%, 70%, 38%, and 65% year-on-year, respectively [1][2]. - The company plans to acquire Dongyao Pharmaceutical for approximately HKD 3.09 billion, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge and capacity [5][6]. - The demand for Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization (CRDMO) services is expected to rise as global Antibody-Drug Conjugate (ADC) pipelines commercialize [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at approximately HKD 59.6 billion, with a gross profit of HKD 21.1 billion and a net profit of HKD 14.7 billion [2][12]. - The gross margin is projected to be around 35.4%, an increase of about 5 percentage points from 2024, indicating strong operational efficiency [2][12]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to grow by over 65% for the year, despite a decline in profit margins in the second half of 2025 due to foreign exchange impacts and rising expense ratios [2][12]. Project Pipeline - The company signed 70 new iCMC projects in 2025, with 22 being molecular projects, contributing to a total of 252 iCMC projects [3]. - WuXi AppTec is expected to lead in the development of new conjugated molecules, with over half of the new projects being innovative types [3]. - The global market share is projected to increase from 21.7% in 2024 to over 24% in 2025 [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity, with existing DP capacity in Wuxi being maintained and expanded in 2025 [4]. - New production facilities in Singapore are expected to be operational by mid-2025, with additional overseas capacity coming online in 2026 [4]. - The acquisition of the Hefei base is expected to enhance peptide development and production capabilities, with an annual capacity exceeding 40 kg [4]. Acquisition of Dongyao - The acquisition of Dongyao Pharmaceutical is expected to strengthen WuXi AppTec's existing competitive position, as Dongyao has significant production capabilities and a strong client base [5][6]. - Dongyao operates two antibody bulk production lines and three independent ADC bulk production workshops, which will complement WuXi AppTec's offerings [5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are revised to HKD 15.9 billion, HKD 22.4 billion, and HKD 31.6 billion, respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 39% [6][12]. - The target price is based on a PEG ratio of 1.06x for 2026, aligning with comparable companies in the sector [6][14].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the benchmark index [6][23]. Core Insights - The State Grid's investment plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, which is expected to benefit power grid equipment companies significantly [1]. - The construction of inter-provincial transmission channels and the reinforcement of weak grids in the western region are clearly defined needs, with a strong demand for UHV (Ultra High Voltage) construction [2]. - The average annual construction volume for UHV projects is expected to remain high during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a substantial order backlog anticipated [3]. - Global investment in power grids is entering an upward phase, with European and American companies planning significant capital expenditures, indicating a favorable environment for domestic companies to expand overseas [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Growth - The State Grid's fixed asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan," marking a 40% increase from the previous plan [1]. - The demand for 750kV equipment has rapidly increased, with the proportion of 750kV transformer bidding capacity rising from 3.9% in 2020 to 21.4% in 2025, an increase of 11.2 times [2]. UHV Projects - The approval of UHV projects is expected to accelerate, with several lines anticipated to be approved soon, enhancing cross-regional transmission capacity by over 30% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3]. Global Market Trends - The global power grid investment is experiencing a double-digit growth phase, with European companies planning capital expenditure growth rates of 18.0% to 19.9% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. - Domestic transformer exports reached 8.08 billion USD from January to November, a 35% increase year-on-year, with expectations for continued high growth in exports [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 22.76 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight year-on-year decline in overall retail sales for Q4 2025, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous months. The sales performance in October was boosted by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, while November and December saw a weakening due to the consumer environment and warm winter [6][10]. - Management is confident in achieving revenue and profit margin guidance for 2025, expecting revenue to remain flat and profit margins to increase in the high single digits. The upcoming Olympic year in 2026 is anticipated to drive marketing investments and resource allocation, potentially leading to a turning point in sales [6][10]. - The company is actively managing inventory and risks in a complex retail environment, with a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio returning to a range of 4-5 months [9][10]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 28,676 million - 2025E: RMB 28,946 million (up 0.94%) - 2026E: RMB 30,023 million (up 3.72%) - 2027E: RMB 31,825 million (up 6.00%) [5][10]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2024: RMB 3,013 million - 2025E: RMB 2,696 million (down 10.52%) - 2026E: RMB 2,769 million (up 2.73%) - 2027E: RMB 3,171 million (up 14.50%) [5][10]. - The company’s EPS (Earnings Per Share) is expected to be: - 2024: RMB 1.17 - 2025E: RMB 1.04 - 2026E: RMB 1.07 - 2027E: RMB 1.23 [5][10]. Channel Performance - In Q4 2025, offline channels (including retail and wholesale) saw a year-on-year decline in sales, while online sales remained flat. The direct sales channel performed better than wholesale, largely due to contributions from outlet stores [7][10]. - The company continues to expand its store network, with a total of 6,091 stores (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) as of Q4 2025, and plans to open more specialty stores in various categories [8][10]. Discount and Inventory Management - Overall discounts in Q4 2025 deepened slightly year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with offline discounts averaging around 65% due to increased clearance efforts for winter apparel amid warm weather [9][10]. - The company has effectively managed inventory levels, with the inventory-to-sales ratio returning to a healthy range, indicating good inventory management practices [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 235.62 [1][4]. Core Views - The report highlights optimistic prospects for the cleanroom construction sector driven by significant capital expenditure plans from major semiconductor companies like TSMC, which plans to increase its capital expenditure by 27% to 37% year-on-year for FY26, reaching USD 52-56 billion [1][2]. - The demand for advanced semiconductor processes and storage chips is expected to lead to a surge in cleanroom construction, benefiting leading companies like the report's subject, which specializes in high-end electronic cleanroom engineering services [1][2]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with December 2025 revenue reaching TWD 95.01 billion (approximately RMB 20.98 billion), a year-on-year increase of 165.1% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of TWD 767.39 billion (approximately RMB 169.43 billion) for the full year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [2]. - For Q4 2025, the revenue was TWD 250.8 billion (approximately RMB 55.39 billion), marking a year-on-year increase of 133.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9% [2]. - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to RMB 7.9 billion, RMB 12.0 billion, and RMB 13.6 billion respectively, with a CAGR of 28.9% [4]. Market Position and Expansion - The company is expanding its workforce, with the number of employees reaching 918 by the end of 2025, an increase of 131 from the previous year, indicating a strategic push for regional expansion [3]. - The report notes that the global semiconductor cleanroom market has significant regional barriers, and the company has been cultivating a workforce with international project experience, which positions it well for future growth in overseas markets [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation based on a PE ratio of 42x for FY26, leading to an updated target price of RMB 235.62, significantly higher than the previous target of RMB 95.4 [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 3.71, RMB 5.61, and RMB 6.39 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, with a target price of RMB 7.70 and HKD 6.85 respectively [6]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the company's ability to increase ticket prices, driven by low supply growth in the industry and improving demand conditions. This is expected to enhance profitability for airlines [1][4]. - The company has achieved a record high passenger load factor of 85.9% in 2025, with significant growth in international routes, indicating strong operational performance [2]. - The airline is projected to benefit from the growing demand for outbound tourism and travel in the Yangtze River Delta region, supported by its main hub in Shanghai [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of RMB 9.34 billion for 2025, with projections of RMB 78.01 billion and RMB 100.96 billion for 2026 and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 21%, 32%, and 26% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 0.04, RMB 0.35, and RMB 0.46 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. Market Dynamics - The airline industry is expected to see a supply-demand improvement in 2026, with supply growth slowing to 4.4% and demand projected to grow by 5.3% [3]. - The report highlights that the airline's capacity growth is primarily focused on international routes, with a 18.5% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) for international flights [2]. Cost and Pricing Outlook - The report anticipates that the airline will exhibit price elasticity, with potential for ticket price increases as competition eases and demand strengthens [4]. - The forecast includes a reduction in Brent crude oil price assumptions to USD 62 and USD 64 per barrel for 2026 and 2027, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown a steady growth in new orders, with a total of 71.235 billion RMB in new contracts signed for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12% [1] - The company is gradually reducing its reliance on domestic cement engineering, with significant growth in integrated mining orders, indicating a clearer long-term growth trajectory [1][2] - The operational performance is improving, with a notable increase in cash flow and profitability, particularly in the metal mining operations [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Order and Revenue Performance - In Q4 2025, the company signed new orders totaling 11.353 billion RMB, a 7% increase year-on-year, with an end-of-year backlog of 66.5 billion RMB, up 11.3% year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2025, the company signed new engineering, equipment, and operation orders of 42.7 billion, 9.3 billion, and 17 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year changes of +14.9%, +29.9%, and -1.7% [2] Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 32.998 billion RMB, a 3.99% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.074 billion RMB, up 0.68% [3] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 18.07%, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.131 billion, 3.196 billion, and 3.248 billion RMB respectively [4] - The target price is set at 14.64 RMB, based on a 12x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting a robust outlook for the company’s international demand and business transformation [4]

Macro Insights - The central bank has announced a series of targeted monetary easing measures, including structural interest rate cuts and expanded relending quotas, indicating a clear intention to support high-quality economic development in 2026 [2][3] - December's new RMB loans and social financing slightly exceeded market expectations but showed a year-on-year decrease, reflecting a divergence in financing demand between infrastructure and real estate sectors [2][3] Power Equipment and New Energy - The State Grid Corporation plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, which is expected to benefit power grid equipment companies significantly [4][5] - The demand for ultra-high voltage construction remains high, and investments in cross-province transmission channels and reinforcement of weak grids in the western regions are expected to continue growing [4] Fixed Income and Credit - The recent financial data indicates a strong start to credit in 2026, with the central bank's proactive monetary policy tools being a key factor [3] - The adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% reflects a regulatory approach to guide the market towards a healthier long-term trend [5] Oil and Chemicals - The ongoing tensions in Iran may disrupt the supply of energy and chemical products, leading to increased volatility in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 6.5% and 7.6% respectively since the beginning of the month [6] - Iran's status as a major supplier of urea and methanol means that prolonged conflict could lead to localized shortages in these chemicals [6] Technology Sector - Insights from CES 2026 highlight three main investment themes: the ongoing demand for computing chips and data center infrastructure driven by AI, the rise of robotics, and advancements in smart hardware technologies [7] - The preference for investment is shifting towards storage, semiconductor equipment, and indices like the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Nasdaq [7] Key Companies - Si Yuan Electric (002028 CH) reported a revenue of 21.205 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.18%, and a net profit of 3.163 billion yuan, exceeding previous expectations [8] - Shengnong Development (002299 CH) anticipates a net profit of 1.37-1.43 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 89.2%-97.4%, despite challenges in the fourth quarter due to falling chicken prices [9]