Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xindong Company, Shenzhou Taiyue, Kaiying Network, and Jibite, while Perfect World is rated as "Hold" [8][9]. Core Insights - The gaming industry in China is expected to achieve a sales revenue of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.68%, driven by an increase in user ARPU [1]. - Mobile games are projected to generate 257.08 billion yuan in revenue, up 7.92% year-on-year, while client games are expected to see a significant recovery with a revenue of 78.16 billion yuan, marking a 14.97% increase [1]. - Mini-games and console games are highlighted as the biggest growth areas, with mini-games expected to reach 53.54 billion yuan, a 34.39% increase, and console games projected at 8.36 billion yuan, an 86.33% increase [2]. - The overseas market for self-developed games is anticipated to reach 20.46 billion USD, growing by 10.23%, with strategy games dominating the revenue share [3]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - The gaming market is experiencing steady growth, supported by long-term operations and innovative new products [1]. - The user base is expected to exceed 683 million, with a growth of 1.35% year-on-year [1]. Mini-games and Console Games - Mini-games are benefiting from lightweight features and social media platforms, significantly lowering customer acquisition costs [2]. - Console games are seeing a surge due to hardware upgrades and popular titles driving sales [2]. Overseas Market - The overseas revenue for self-developed mobile games is projected to be 18.48 billion USD, with a growth rate of 13.16% [3]. - The North American, Japanese, and Korean markets contribute 57.81% of the overseas revenue, indicating a high market concentration [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with long-term operations and strong overseas strategy game capabilities, such as Giant Network [4]. - New product cycles and companies transitioning to platform-based business models are also recommended for investment [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $388.35 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue growth in Q4 FY25, achieving $18.015 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 13% [1]. - The net profit for Q4 FY25 was $8.518 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 97% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 106% [1]. - The semiconductor solutions business saw revenue of $11.072 billion in Q4 FY25, with AI-related revenue reaching $6.438 billion, a year-over-year increase of 74% [2]. - The infrastructure software business generated $6.943 billion in revenue for Q4 FY25, with strong demand for new orders, totaling over $10.4 billion [3]. - The company expects Q1 FY26 revenue to be $19.1 billion, driven by rapid shipments of ASIC and AI Ethernet switch products, with AI-related revenue projected to double year-over-year [4]. - The company has a strong order backlog of $73 billion in AI-related business, enhancing revenue visibility for the next 18 months [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 FY25, the company achieved a GAAP EPS of $1.74, a 93% increase year-over-year, and a Non-GAAP EPS of $1.95 [1]. - The company expects Non-GAAP net profits for FY26 to be $46.5 billion, with significant upward revisions for FY26 and FY27 [5]. Semiconductor Solutions - The semiconductor solutions segment reported a revenue increase of 21% year-over-year, with a notable 35% quarter-over-quarter growth [2]. - The company received a $10 billion order for ASIC-related business and a $11 billion order from a single customer, with plans for delivery by the end of 2026 [2]. Infrastructure Software - The infrastructure software segment's revenue grew by 2% year-over-year, with a total of $69.43 billion in revenue for Q4 FY25 [3]. - The total value of new contracts signed in Q4 FY25 exceeded $10.4 billion, indicating strong demand [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue of $19.1 billion for Q1 FY26, with AI-related revenue expected to reach $8.2 billion, doubling year-over-year [4]. - The total backlog of orders for the company is $162 billion, reflecting a $52 billion increase from the previous quarter [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has an optimistic expectation for the liquidity situation, as indicated by the downward trends in certificate of deposit (CD) rates and interest rate swap (IRS) yields [2]. - The liquidity is expected to remain stable and slightly loose, with minor disturbances to the funds before the Spring Festival, as the MLF is likely to continue to be renewed in excess [5]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries a. Interest Rates - Bank - to - bank interest rates were differentiated. DR007 had an average of 1.44%, up 4BP from the previous week. R007 had an average of 1.51%, up from the previous week. DR001 and R001 had averages of 1.27% and 1.35% respectively. Exchange repurchase rates increased, with the average GC007 at 1.55%. CD rates and IRS yields declined. The 1 - year AAA CD yield was 1.64% at the end of last week, down from the previous week. The 1 - year FR007 IRS average was 1.52%, slightly down from the previous week [2][7]. b. Repurchase Transactions - Repurchase trading volume increased. The pledged repurchase trading volume was between 8.3 - 8.6 trillion yuan last week, and the average R001 trading volume was 76346 billion yuan, up 4094 billion yuan from the previous week. The outstanding repurchase balance was 12.9 trillion yuan at the end of last week, up from the previous week. In terms of institutions, the lending scale of large - scale banks and money market funds decreased, while the borrowing scale of funds and wealth management products increased, and the borrowing scale of securities firms decreased [3]. c. Bill and Exchange Rates - Bill rates decreased. On December 19th, the 6 - month national bill transfer quote was 0.89%, down from the previous week, indicating a decrease in credit demand and an increase in bill - padding demand. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased to 7.04 last Friday, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened. The US 1 - year Treasury yield may show a steeper curve in the future [4]. d. This Week's Focus - This week, there are 8775 billion yuan of open - market funds maturing, including 4575 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF. The LPR in December remained unchanged. US Q3 GDP will be announced on Tuesday, and China's November industrial enterprise profits will be announced on Saturday. Although the tax - payment period has passed, the increase in government bond supply this week may cause some disturbances to the liquidity. The MLF is expected to be renewed in excess, and the liquidity will remain stable and slightly loose [5].

Group 1: Manufacturing Industry Trends - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aimed to maintain a stable proportion of manufacturing, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" shifts to maintaining a "reasonable proportion," indicating a potential decline from the current level, which is double the OECD average[2][10]. - In 2024, China's nominal manufacturing value added is projected to account for 24.9% of GDP, significantly higher than the OECD average of 12.4%[2][10]. - From 2011 to 2020, China's manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP decreased from 31.6% to 25.7%, but the decline has slowed since 2020 due to real estate cycle adjustments[2][11]. Group 2: Investment and Growth Rates - The annualized growth rate of China's real manufacturing value added (PPP) from 2021 to 2024 is expected to be 4.6%, surpassing the global average of 1.7% during the same period[2][20]. - High-end manufacturing investment is projected to grow at an annualized rate of 12.2% from 2021 to 2024, outpacing the overall manufacturing investment growth rate of 9.5%[3][26]. - Traditional manufacturing sectors are expected to see an investment growth rate increase from 2.9% during the "13th Five-Year Plan" to an average of 8.9% from 2021 to 2024[3][27]. Group 3: Emerging Industries and Future Prospects - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes breakthroughs in high-tech industries and aims to enhance competitiveness in sectors like AI, hydrogen energy, and quantum information[3][29]. - The production of new energy vehicles is projected to rise from 340,000 units in 2015 to 13.168 million units in 2024, reflecting significant growth in the sector[3][46]. - The brain-computer interface industry is expected to grow from 2.33 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.2 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 17.2%[3][48].

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - In the third week of December, the real - estate transaction heat slightly recovered, but the overall situation of new and second - hand houses was weak, and the year - on - year readings were weaker than before due to the high base effect. House prices needed improvement, and land transaction indicators remained at a low level [3]. - In terms of production, the resilience of freight volume declined in the industrial sector, most production start - up rates were weak, the refinery start - up rate recovered, while coking, blast furnace, and automobile production were marginally weak. In the construction industry, the supply and demand of cement and black products were weak, inventory decreased slightly, and the asphalt start - up rate fluctuated at a low level [3]. - For external demand, the throughput decreased year - on - year but remained at a high level, and freight rate indicators were slightly differentiated. Comprehensive indices such as BDI and RJ/CRB were strong but marginally declined, while CCFI and SCFI indices increased [3]. - In the consumption sector, the travel heat slightly declined, and the year - on - year performance of automobile consumption was weak [3]. - Regarding prices, pork prices were weak under supply pressure, overseas interest - rate cut expectations and production - end disturbances affected crude oil and copper prices, and black - series prices recovered [3]. Group 2: Consumption - Travel heat decreased overall, with year - on - year declines in subway travel, congestion delay index, and domestic and international flights compared to the previous values [4]. - Automobile consumption was weak year - on - year, and the express delivery collection level decreased [4]. Group 3: Real Estate - The real - estate transaction heat slightly increased, with new - house transaction heat slightly recovering, and third - tier cities leading in structure; second - hand house transaction heat also slightly recovered, but with differentiated performance in high - level cities [5][10]. - The listed quantity and price of second - hand houses both decreased [11]. - The land - market premium rate remained at a low level, and land transaction volume increased seasonally [11]. - Last week, real - estate policies continued to exert force on both the supply and demand sides [12]. Group 4: Production - Railway and highway freight volume decreased, and industry start - up rates were differentiated. The start - up rates of coking and refineries increased year - on - year, while those of PTA, polyester, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms were weak, and the start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires slightly decreased [17]. - Coal consumption decreased year - on - year, hydropower generation weakened, and coal prices increased month - on - month [13]. Group 5: Construction - Construction funds decreased month - on - month, and the supply and demand of cement and black products were weak. Cement and black - series inventories decreased slightly, and prices increased [14][15]. - The asphalt start - up rate decreased month - on - month, and prices increased slightly. The start - up rates of PVC and styrene were marginally differentiated [16]. Group 6: External Demand - Port cargo throughput and container throughput maintained resilience, and freight rates were differentiated. RJ/CRB and BDI decreased year - on - year, while CCFI and SCFI increased [5][18]. - South Korea's and Vietnam's exports maintained resilience [5]. - The US employment data was generally weak, and the euro - zone price pressure eased [5][19]. - The domestic import freight rate (CDFI) decreased month - on - month [19]. Group 7: Prices - The comprehensive indices of RJ/CRB and South China Industrial Products Index decreased. Pork and vegetable prices decreased, while black - series prices increased, and the prices of crude oil and copper were affected by various factors [6][20][21]. - Crude oil prices decreased due to supply - side factors such as expected record - high US production and sufficient Middle - East supply, and the weakening of geopolitical premiums [21]. - Black - series prices increased. Coke supply was tightened by environmental protection policies, and the supply - demand expectation of rebar slightly improved [22]. - Copper prices remained flat, supported by the supply - demand pattern but affected by different factors such as interest - rate cut expectations [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The launch of commercial real - estate investment trust funds (REITs) pilot is a significant step. Infrastructure REITs' successful exploration has provided valuable experience. It is an important part of the multi - level REITs market, helps the real - estate industry transform from "sales - oriented" to "operation - oriented", and is expected to make the market more rational for investors [2][10][19]. - Last week, most credit - bond yields declined slightly, but the decline was less than that of government - developed bonds, leading to a passive increase in credit spreads. Credit - bond net financing decreased slightly, and the issuance interest rates showed mixed trends. In secondary trading, medium - and short - duration bonds were actively traded, while long - duration bond trading remained at a low level [3][21][51]. 3. Summary by Directory Credit Hotspots: New Regulations and Outlook for Commercial Real - Estate REITs - On November 28, 2025, the CSRC issued the "Announcement on Launching the Pilot of Commercial Real - Estate Investment Trust Funds (Draft for Comment)". Commercial real - estate REITs are closed - end publicly - offered securities investment funds that invest in commercial real - estate asset - backed securities to obtain ownership or operating rights, and distribute most of the income to fund - share holders [2][10][20]. - China's REITs market started in the infrastructure sector. As of December 19, 2025, 78 REITs had been listed, raising 211 billion yuan with a total market value of 214.1 billion yuan. The underlying assets cover eight categories [10]. - The underlying asset scope of infrastructure REITs has gradually expanded, from consumer infrastructure to commercial real - estate REITs, with multiple relevant policies issued over the years [10][11][12]. - The structure of commercial real - estate REITs may refer to previous public REITs, with the CSRC and exchanges likely to be the review departments. The approval may speed up, and the long - term market space is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan. It is of great significance to the multi - level REITs market, real - estate enterprises, and investors [19]. Market Review: Most Credit - Bond Yields Declined, and Credit Spreads Rose Passively - From December 12 to December 19, 2025, the tax - period capital market was stable, bond - fund redemptions briefly disrupted the market, and the expectation of LPR interest rate cuts resurfaced. Most credit - bond yields declined by about 2BP, and most Tier - 2 and perpetual bonds (except 1 - year) also declined by about 2BP, but less than government - developed bonds, causing spreads to rise passively. The 1 - 5Y varieties' spreads mostly rose by 2 - 3BP [3][21]. - Last week, wealth - management products had a net purchase of 37.6 billion yuan, and funds had a net purchase of 8.2 billion yuan. The scale of credit - bond ETFs was 528.2 billion yuan, a 3.73% increase from the previous week [3][21]. - In terms of industry spreads, the median spreads of public bonds of AAA - rated entities in various industries mostly rose by about 3BP last week, and the median spreads of public urban - investment bonds in each province generally rose by 2 - 4BP, with Yunnan and Guizhou rising by more than 6BP [3][21]. Primary Issuance: Credit - Bond Net Financing Declined Slightly, and Issuance Interest Rates Showed Mixed Trends - From December 15 to December 19, 2025, the total issuance of corporate - type credit bonds was 251.9 billion yuan, a slight 8% decline from the previous week; the total issuance of financial - type credit bonds was 100.4 billion yuan, a 40% decline [51]. - Among corporate - type credit bonds, urban - investment bonds issued 79.1 billion yuan, and industrial bonds issued 170.8 billion yuan. The total net financing was 47.3 billion yuan, a 34% decline from the previous week. Urban - investment net financing was 1.4 billion yuan, and industrial bond net financing was 49.7 billion yuan [51]. - For financial - type credit bonds, commercial - bank bonds had a net repayment of 35.2 billion yuan, commercial - bank sub - bonds had a net financing of 42 billion yuan, and insurance and securities - company bonds had a net financing of 10.5 billion yuan [51]. - Regarding issuance interest rates, the average issuance interest rate of medium - and short - term notes showed an upward trend except for AAA - rated ones, and the average issuance interest rate of corporate bonds showed a downward trend except for AA + - rated ones [51]. Secondary Trading: Medium - and Short - Duration Bonds Were Actively Traded, and Long - Duration Bond Trading Remained at a Low Level - Active trading entities were mainly medium - and high - grade, medium - and short - term, central - and state - owned enterprises. Urban - investment bond trading entities were mainly divided into two types: mainstream high - grade platforms in economically strong provinces and core platforms in regions with relatively high spreads in large economic provinces [5][61]. - Real - estate bond trading entities were still mainly AAA - rated, with trading terms mostly between 1 - 3 years; private - enterprise bond trading entities were also mainly AAA - rated, with medium - and short - term trading terms [5][61]. - In the long - duration bond market, there were no transactions of urban - investment bonds with a term of more than 5 years, remaining at a low level compared to the previous week [5][61].

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 22 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：数据噪音加大，市场更为关注联储主席人选谜底 上周公布的 10-11 月非农和 CPI 显示美国就业市场仍未失速，且通胀整体温 和，但均受到政府关门的扰动，联储降息预期仅小幅上升。日欧英央行公布 利率决议，日央行如期加息 25bp，但表态不够鹰派，日元贬值，而欧央行 如期按兵不动，英国央行降息 25bp。上周美债收益率下行、美元小幅升 值、美股下跌。本周重点关注美国三季度 GDP（12 月 23 日）。 风险提示：地缘政治不确定性，联储独立性受到超预期削弱。 研报发布日期：2025-12-21 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 陈玮 SAC:S0570524030003 SFC:BVH374 王子琳 SAC:S0570525090002 宏观：国债发行及建筑开工边际提速 上周港口高频数据显示出口同比增速进一步回升，建筑开工边际改 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日│中国内地 动态点评 保险 保险资产负债管理全面升级 华泰研究 保险 增持 (维持) | 李健，PhD | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570521010001 | lijian@htsc.com | | SFC No. AWF297 | +(852) 3658 6112 | | 于明汇* | 联系人 | | SAC No. S0570124070107 | yuminghui@htsc.com | | | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 行业走势图 (13) (5) 4 13 21 Dec-24 Apr-25 Aug-25 Dec-25 (%) 保险 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 资产负债管理新规意见稿发布 12 月 19 日，金融监管总局发布《保险公司资产负债管理办法（征求意见稿）》 （《意见稿》），相比于 2018 年以来发布的《保险资产负债管理监管暂行办 法》和五项监管规则，《意见稿》系统地完善了监管规定，从监管目标、治 理结构、政策程序、模型系统、定量指标等方面提出了更为严格且细致的要 求，其中多 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The high base effect from national subsidies is expected to constrain short-term performance in the home appliance category, impacting revenue and profit growth for the company [1] - The company is projected to face revenue growth pressure in Q4 2025, with total revenue expected to increase by only 0.4% year-on-year to 348.4 billion yuan, compared to a 14.9% increase in Q3 2025 [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the efficiency of the company's takeaway business and the effectiveness of cross-selling new users to its e-commerce platform [1] - Anticipated policies to stimulate consumption in the home appliance sector in 2026 may provide support for the company's performance [1][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is adjusted to 1,305.2 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.9% from previous estimates [11] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 27.1 billion yuan, 23.1 billion yuan, and 41.9 billion yuan respectively, indicating significant declines due to the tapering effect of national subsidies [4][11] - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to decline to 2.1% in 2025, down from previous estimates [11] Valuation - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at 38.70 USD per ADS and 150.58 HKD per ordinary share, reflecting a decrease from previous values [14] - The valuation for the retail business is set at 23.77 USD per ADS, based on a non-GAAP PE of 8.0 times the 2026 forecast, which is below the comparable company average [14][15] Market Trends - The retail sector is experiencing a slowdown, with online retail sales growth decelerating to 5.7% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025, influenced by high base effects from previous national subsidy programs [2] - The company’s performance in the home appliance category saw a significant decline, with retail sales dropping by 19.4% year-on-year in November 2025 [2] Future Outlook - The central economic work conference highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing policies, which could support the company’s performance in the consumer goods sector [3] - The report suggests that the company’s performance may improve if the domestic demand policies are effectively implemented [3]

证券研究报告 金工 2025 年外资买入哪些中国资产 ETF 2025 年 12 月 21 日│中国内地 ETF 点评 ETF 市场观察：2025 年中国科技资产 ETF 获外资流入较多 截至 2025 年 12 月 20 日，2025 年以来全球投资于中国资产的 ETF 累计获 得 831 亿美元的资金净流入。其中，境内 ETF 累计获资金流入 786 亿美元， 境外 ETF 则累计净流入约 45 亿美元。从总体数值来看，外资买入中国资产 占比较小；然而，就内部分化情况来看，2025 年以来外资对境内资产的配 置存在显著倾向性：就行业分布来看，科技板块获外资流入最多，达 95 亿 美元，主要来自美国和欧洲地区；就具体产品而言，外资流入排名前 10 的 ETF 中有六只为科技 ETF，排名前 3 的 iShares 中国科技 UCITS ETF、 Invesco 中国科技 ETF 和 KraneShares CSI 中国互联网 ETF 获资金净流入 均超过 20 亿美元。 ETF 市场回顾：上周中证 A500 指数相关 ETF 获资金流入较多 上周（2025/12/15-2025/12/19）ETF 市场股票 ...