证券研究报告 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 26 日│中国内地 行业月报 供需宽松叠加地缘溢价逐步消退，油价回归至边际成本附近 12 月以来 OPEC+宣布维持 26Q1 产量目标不变，但美国原油产量持续攀升， 叠加俄乌"和平计划"持续谈判中，12 月中旬 Brent 油价一度跌破 60 美元/ 桶而后小幅反弹，12 月 25 日 WTI/Brent 期货价格收于 58.4/62.2 美元/桶， 较 11 月末下跌 0.3%/1.5%。我们认为美欧对俄制裁带来的风险溢价已基本 消退，北半球需求淡季叠加 OPEC+前期目标增量逐步释放，供需宽松局势 下 26Q1 油价或仍有小幅下行空间，26Q2-Q3 油价有望在需求进入旺季的 带动下见底并上探，预计 25/26 年 Brent 均价为 68/62 美元/桶。长期而言， 考虑主要产油国边际成本及"利重于量"诉求，油价中枢存 60 美元/桶底部 支撑，具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的能源龙头企业或将显现配置机 遇，推荐中国石油（A/H）、中国海油（A/H）。 需求侧：北半球进入需求淡季，主要地区成品油进入补库阶段 石油天然气 边际成本支撑下油价下行风险或可控 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [7] Core Insights - The report anticipates stable growth in hydropower and improvements in cash flow for green energy and environmental companies due to government subsidies and debt reduction policies [1][6] - The performance of thermal power companies is expected to improve in Q4 2025 despite some uncertainty due to impairment losses [2] - Hydropower generation has shown significant year-on-year growth, with expectations for increased profitability for major hydropower companies [3] - The renewable energy sector is experiencing growth in installed capacity, which supports an increase in generation, while the risk of impairment is expected to ease [4] - Natural gas production is on the rise, and cost reductions may boost demand in the coming years [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - In October and November 2025, thermal power generation increased by 7.3% and decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, respectively, with coal prices declining by 11.5% year-on-year [2] - The average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal in Q4 2025 is projected to be 750 RMB per ton [2] Hydropower & Nuclear Power - Hydropower generation in October and November 2025 increased by 28.2% and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The Three Gorges Dam's outflow increased significantly, and nuclear power generation also showed stable growth [3] Renewable Energy - From January to October 2025, wind and solar power generation increased by 7.6% and 23.2% year-on-year, respectively, with installed capacity growth supporting generation increases [4] - The utilization rates for wind and solar power were 96.4% and 94.8%, respectively, indicating a slight year-on-year improvement [4] Natural Gas - Natural gas production increased by 5.9% and 5.7% year-on-year in October and November 2025, while apparent consumption decreased by 1.3% [5] - The market anticipates a decline in international oil prices and domestic gas prices, which may support demand growth [5] Environmental Sector - The report highlights the positive impact of government subsidy repayments and pricing adjustments on the environmental sector's fundamentals [6] - The ongoing debt reduction policies are expected to enhance the financial performance of environmental companies [6]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has surpassed the important threshold of 7.00, with onshore RMB also breaking 7.01, indicating a potential for further appreciation of the RMB [2] - The report anticipates a 4-5% annualized appreciation of the RMB, which will not adversely affect China's export competitiveness [2] - Factors such as the peak in foreign exchange settlements and improved US-China trade relations are expected to support the RMB's appreciation, enhancing foreign investment interest in RMB assets [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The total government bond supply for 2025 is projected to reach 14.4 trillion, with both national and local bonds nearing 99% supply completion as of December 25, 2025 [3] - The market is currently focused on the supply-demand dynamics of interest rate bonds and the structure of bond issuance [3] - The report highlights the potential for REITs to recover from recent price declines, with the REITs total return index having dropped 4.28% recently but showing signs of recovery [4] Group 3: Technology Sector - Insights from the SEMICON Japan conference indicate three key investment opportunities for 2026: AI-driven storage cycles, semiconductor process upgrades, and price increases in technology commodities [5] - There is significant debate among investors regarding the competitive positioning of OpenAI against Google and the sustainability of NAND price increases [5] Group 4: Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The report suggests that high metal prices may drive exploration and service companies to transition towards mining development, utilizing models such as equity participation and EPC+O [6] - This transition is expected to be significant as smaller mining owners seek external support for development due to limited capital and technical capabilities [6] Group 5: Banking Sector Dynamics - A wave of deposit maturities is anticipated, with approximately 50 trillion in term deposits maturing in the coming year, primarily concentrated in the 2-5 year range [8] - This situation is expected to alleviate pressure on banks' net interest margins but may lead to increased volatility in the funding landscape [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the critical debt - resolution point in June 2027 approaches, the market refocuses on the credit risk of urban investment bonds. The report analyzes the current debt - resolution progress, new trends, and provides an outlook for the post - June 2027 situation, as well as investment strategies [1][9] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Current Debt - Resolution Progress: Reviewing Results from Data - **Significant achievements but high overall debt**: In 2025, debt risk has been continuously mitigated, with notable results in debt cost reduction, structure optimization, and platform list exits. However, the total debt scale remains high, and the debt ratio of most provinces is rising. As of June 30, 2025, the total "local full - scale debt" exceeded 120 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11% [10][17][19] - **Diversified debt - resolution tools but crowding - out effect on investment**: By December 17, 2025, 2 trillion yuan of "special bonds for replacing implicit debts" have been issued. There are also special new - added special bonds and special refinancing bonds in the issuance process. But debt resolution has crowded out project investment. As of December 5, 2025, the proportion of new - added special bonds for project investment dropped to 58% from 78% in 2024 [24][26] New Trends in the Second Half of Debt Resolution - **Focus on operating debt**: The central government emphasizes "optimizing debt restructuring and replacement methods" for operating debt of urban investment platforms. This may involve continued non - standard debt replacement, possible implicit debt trusteeship (not widely adopted), debt - up - shifting and unified borrowing and repayment, and individual case debt restructuring in extreme situations [34] - **Transformation of urban investment and changes in bond market supply structure**: In the short and medium term, traditional urban investment financing is restricted, while transportation and industrial investment platforms in quasi - urban investment platforms still have financing. The local development impetus is accelerating the transformation from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure, science and technology innovation, and industrial investment [39] - **Establishment of a long - term debt - resolution mechanism**: The establishment of the Debt Management Department of the Ministry of Finance reflects the trend of upgrading government debt management. At the local level, the revitalization of state - owned assets has become a key task, but there are also potential risks and challenges [48][49] Outlook for the Second Half: What Investors Are Concerned About - **View on weak - region urban investment bonds after June 2027**: The systemic default risk is low, but structural differentiation is a consensus, with valuation fluctuation risk and liquidity risk being more prominent. Regional and platform - level differentiation may occur, and the government's support willingness for different types of platforms varies [56][57][58] - **Risk observation**: Future risk observation of urban investment bonds may shift from traditional indicators to more forward - looking and multi - dimensional sentiment monitoring, including bill overdue, non - standard sentiment, overseas bond issuance, and loan sentiment, as well as the transformation effectiveness of regional transformation entities [61] Investment Strategy - **For short - to medium - duration bonds**: For entities mainly relying on traditional urban investment business, the safety margin of short - to medium - duration bonds is relatively strong, but the cost - effectiveness is limited. Attention should be paid to valuation fluctuation risks. Some regions can sink to lower - rated bonds within 2 years [71] - **For long - duration bonds**: Focus on medium - to high - grade, highly liquid, and large - scale bonds, or some entities with good transformation results and stable cash - flow business. Avoid excessive sinking. The cost - effectiveness of extending the duration in sentiment - affected regions is relatively low [71] - **For weak entities**: Be more cautious about entities with weak regional endowments, unclear transformation directions, and uncertain new business prospects. Pay attention to bond issuance opportunities of some urban investment platforms in line with the development of high - tech and strategic emerging industries under the background of science - innovation bonds [73]

Group 1: Fixed Income Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the implementation of a rural resident income increase plan, aiming to enhance the proportion of resident income in national income distribution and labor remuneration in primary distribution [2] - Concerns about a potential AI bubble are present, but the credit risk in AI investments is primarily limited to a few new cloud vendors, with low probabilities of substantial defaults among leading tech companies [2][3] - The investment return rates for data centers are currently high due to a supply-demand imbalance in computing power, but the sustainability of these investments depends on the application side generating revenues that significantly exceed capital expenditures [2][3] Group 2: Economic Policy and Industry Trends - Recent information from the Central Economic Work Conference indicates a focus on high-quality growth, with policies leaning towards supply-side measures and an emphasis on service consumption [3] - The mining service and equipment sector is expected to transition towards mining development, driven by high metal prices and the need for external support from smaller mining owners who face financial and technical constraints [4] - Beijing has initiated a new round of real estate policy optimization, which is expected to stabilize the market and potentially influence other cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen to follow suit [5] Group 3: Energy and Chemical Sector - The PX market is anticipated to experience upward momentum due to a pause in domestic capacity growth and increasing PTA demand, with significant price differentials observed [6] - The natural gas sector is expected to benefit from a decline in costs, with stable pricing expected for industrial and commercial sales, leading to growth in profitability and dividends for gas companies [12][13] Group 4: AI Investment and Gaming Industry - AI investment is viewed as a core driver of global economic growth, with current discussions highlighting the need to focus on the rhythm and structure of investments rather than total investment levels [10] - The Chinese gaming industry's overseas revenue is projected to grow from $11.6 billion in 2019 to $18.56 billion by 2024, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 9.1% [10]

证券研究报告 固收 三个视角看美国 AI 投资 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 2025 年 12 月 24 日│中国内地 资产配置周报 核心观点 近期 AI 局部泡沫担忧仍在不时扰动市场，核心矛盾还是在投资端。我们尝 试从三个角度审视 AI 投资的可持续性。从违约风险角度看，目前 AI 信用风 险担忧仅存在于少数几家新云厂商，发生实质违约的概率偏低，头部科技企 业经营稳健，整体行业的投资仍在加速推进。从回报率看，在当前算力供不 应求的环境下，单个数据中心的投资回报率较高，核心痛点仍在应用端能否 创造数倍于资本开支的收入，以保证投资的可持续性。从宏观环境看，美国 私人部门杠杆率健康，流动性总体宽松，信用环境逐步修复，不具备刺破泡 沫的宏观基础。对投资而言，AI 科技叙事仍在强化，上游工业商品、电力 设备、硬件等具备高胜率，下游应用端潜在赔率更高。不过由于供给端落地 节奏与需求端商业化的诸多不确定性，可能会伴随预期与估值的反复波动。 核心主题：三个视角看美国 AI 投资 当前 AI 的核心矛盾还是在投资端。如果 AI 投资难以为继，市场将重新评估 美国经济，科技巨头的高估值自然也无法持续，新模型和应用侧的进展也自 然 ...

从 GDP 分项来看，居民消费延续修复，剔除库存后的私人投资边际放缓， 政府投资与消费明显回升。具体来看， 证券研究报告 宏观 美国三季度 GDP 折年增速反弹至 4.3% 2025 年 12 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 2025 年三季度美国 GDP 增长大幅超预期回升至 4.3%，衡量潜在动能的私 人消费+投资增速上升至 3%。2025 年三季度 GDP 季环比折年增速从今年 二季度的 3.8%进一步上行至 4.3%，高于彭博一致预期的 3.3%，同比增速 上行 0.2pp 至 2.3%。从分项上看，关税对存货和净出口的扰动仍然存在， 剔除上述扰动项后，衡量经济潜在动能的"私人消费+投资"增速由 2.9% 边际加速至 3.0%。三季度 GDP 超预期导致联储 2026 年降息预期有所回撤： 截至北京时间 23 点 20 分，相较数据公布前，联储 26 年降息预期回撤 4bp 至 54bp，美元指数微涨 0.1%至 98.1，2y、10y 美债收益率分别上行 5bp、 3bp 至 3.54%、4.18%，标普 500 期货先跌后涨，上涨 0.1%。 1）居民消费增速由 2.5%加速至 3.5%，对 G ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" with a target price of RMB 43.90 [2] Core Insights - The company is advancing its second phase of the commercial aerospace project, investing approximately RMB 300 million to enhance production capacity for various specialty gases, including green hydrogen and krypton, to meet the growing demands of the launch site and satellite industry [6][7] - The first phase of the project has been completed, with successful applications of core products in multiple rocket launches, demonstrating the company's technical capabilities and cost advantages [8][9] - The company is expanding its market presence by establishing partnerships with key aerospace bases across China, which will help mitigate risks associated with single projects and capitalize on the increasing demand for commercial satellite launches [9] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: RMB 22,047 million (2024), RMB 21,877 million (2025E), RMB 23,029 million (2026E), and RMB 24,504 million (2027E), with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% expected for net profit [5][10] - The report anticipates net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 1,684 million (2024), RMB 1,553 million (2025E), RMB 1,790 million (2026E), and RMB 2,051 million (2027E) [5][10] - The target price has been adjusted to RMB 43.90 based on a 17x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the growth potential from the second phase expansion and multi-base collaborations [10]

证券研究报告 滔搏 (6110 HK) 港股通 滔搏公布 FY26 年第三季度运营表现：公司零售及批发业务总销售额同比高 单位数下跌，零售业务表现优于批发业务，整体终端需求仍处于弱复苏区间； 期间直营门店毛销售面积较 1HFY26 -1.3%，同比-13.4%，净关店数量环比 收窄，公司继续推进门店网络优化、谨慎开闭店策略。当前零售环境弱复苏， 市场仍处于促销氛围，但我们看好短期 NIKE 大中华区在专业运动新品、体 育营销、全域一体化经营下的零售反转，有望带动盈利能力改善，同时多品 牌布局持续发力，有望从传统零售运营向品牌管理转型，打开长期增长空间， 维持"买入"评级。 线上与线下渠道表现分化收窄，库存下降但折扣同比加深 1）流水：第三季度零售业务同比表现略弱于上半财年，主因终端消费处于 弱复苏阶段。分渠道看，受去年同期低基数影响，线下及线上渠道同比表现 分化收窄，第三季度线下/线上的同比表现较上半财年略有改善/放缓。2）经 营：线上销售占比提升，带动整体折扣率同比加深，但受益于线上线下分化 收窄，折扣加深幅度较上半财年有所改善；我们预计在期内电商大促及库存 管控节奏下，期末库存同比有所下降且周转效率保持良 ...

证券研究报告 华联控股 (000036 CH) 拟收购南美"锂三角"最大未开发盐 湖，第二曲线继续迈进 | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 12 月 | 23 日│中国内地 | 房地产开发 | 目标价(人民币): | 5.15 | 12 月 22 日，公司发布公告，拟以 1.75 亿美元受让境外公司智利锂业及其 CEO 所持有的 Argentum 公司的 100%股份，从而获得阿里扎罗锂矿项目 80%的权益。同日，公司与交易对方已签署《股份购买协议》。本次收购为 公司首次获取大型海外盐湖资源，标志其新能源业务转型由前期布局阶段迈 入实质推进阶段，公司第二增长曲线的确定性显著提升。维持"增持"评级。 拟收购阿根廷锂盐湖矿，公司切入产业上游核心资源端 阿里扎罗项目位于阿根廷萨尔塔省 Arizaro 盐湖区，后者为南美洲"锂三角" 最大的未开发盐湖。阿里扎罗项目包含 Arizaro 锂盐湖 6 个采矿权，总面积 约 205 平方公里。根据第三方专业机构出具的预可行性研究报告，阿里扎 ...