证券研究报告 索尼 (6758 JP) 游戏/音乐/传感器表现亮眼，看好 2026 年内容业务部分抵消存储影响 分业务来看，游戏/音乐/传感器业务贡献了主要利润增量：1）游戏业务季度 营收/营业利润同比-4%/+19%。虽然 PS5 硬件销量受周期性因素下滑，但 网络服务和第一方软件销售强劲，公司上调游戏业务全年营业利润指引 2% 至 JPY 510bn；2）音乐业务季度营收/营业利润同比+13%/+9%，主要受益 于流媒体收益和现场活动的拉动。公司将音乐业务全年营业利润指引上调 16%至 JPY 445bn，除了核心业务增长外，更得益于花生漫画并表带来的约 450 亿日元一次性重估收益；3）影像及传感业务季度营收/营业利润同比 +21%/+35%，主要得益于大客户智能手机对高端传感器的旺盛需求以及产 品组合的持续优化，公司上调了该业务的全年营业利润指引 13%。 已锁定下财年存储最低供应量，涨价对利润影响仍需关注 行业性的存储芯片短缺成为关注焦点，根据 TrendForce 预测（2026/2/2）， 2026年第一季度通用DRAM合约价格预计将环比上涨约90-95%，而NAND Flash 合约价预计环比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the wind and solar industries are facing performance pressures in Q4 2025, but there is optimism for profit recovery and trends in space photovoltaics [1][9]. - The report emphasizes that the profitability of companies in the solar industry is heavily reliant on gross margins and cash flow, especially in the context of rising silver prices impacting battery component costs [5][9]. - The development of space photovoltaics is seen as a new business model, with significant advancements expected from leading solar companies [6][9]. Summary by Sections Wind Power - In Q4 2025, wind turbine manufacturers experienced margin pressure due to low-priced domestic projects and a decline in profits from project transfers, leading to performance below consensus expectations [4]. - The report anticipates that the delivery of price-increased orders in 2026 will support profit recovery in the wind power supply chain, with accelerated construction of offshore wind projects laying the foundation for continued installation growth [4][9]. Solar Power - The report notes that the significant rise in silver prices has increased battery component costs, with the Shanghai silver index rising by 56% from the end of September to the end of December 2025, leading to a corresponding increase in costs of 5-6 cents per watt [5]. - Companies like JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, and Trina Solar are expected to achieve mass production of low-silver products in the first half of 2026, which may benefit upstream material processing and powder manufacturers [5]. - The report suggests that in a context of weak demand, companies will focus on cost control and the introduction of high-power products to drive profit recovery [9]. Space Photovoltaics - SpaceX's acquisition of xAI is expected to create a space-ground-computing ecosystem, with advancements in space photovoltaics anticipated to continue [6]. - Leading solar companies are making significant R&D investments in space photovoltaics, with plans for commercial production of perovskite tandem solar cells expected between 2026 and 2028 [6]. - Companies like JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others are actively developing technologies and products for the space photovoltaic market, indicating a strong push towards commercialization [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector [2] Core Views - The central government emphasizes the acceleration of smart agriculture development, highlighting its importance in enhancing agricultural productivity and reducing costs [5][7] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in smart agriculture, seed technology, and pig farming capacity reduction, recommending companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Donghai Seeds, and Longping High-Tech [7][8] Summary by Sections Smart Agriculture - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes the importance of smart agriculture, focusing on breeding and agricultural equipment innovation, including the use of AI, drones, IoT, and robotics [5][6] - Smart agriculture is viewed as a crucial factor for improving agricultural efficiency and productivity [5] Agricultural Trade - The report highlights the need for diversification in agricultural product imports and the cultivation of internationally competitive agricultural enterprises [6] - This strategy is deemed essential for stabilizing domestic food production amidst geopolitical tensions and trade frictions [6] Crop Production - The report sets a target for grain production to stabilize at around 1.4 trillion jin, with a focus on enhancing grain yield and quality [8] - It also mentions the need to improve the pricing policy for cotton and emphasizes the importance of increasing oilseed production [8] Livestock Industry - The report discusses the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and the recovery of the beef and dairy industries [9] - It predicts continued overcapacity in the pig supply chain, with investment opportunities arising from capacity reduction [9] Company Recommendations - Wens Foodstuff Group (300498 CH): Target price of 20.73, rated "Buy" [4][10] - Longping High-Tech (000998 CH): Target price of 12.77, rated "Buy" [4][10] - Muyuan Foods (002714 CH): Target price of 54.90, rated "Buy" [4][10] - Donghai Seeds (002041 CH): Target price of 12.06, rated "Overweight" [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 29.38 [9]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from strategic collaboration with leading customers and an integrated layout that reduces production costs, enhancing its competitiveness in the lithium battery materials business [3][4]. - The company plans to jointly increase capital in its subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua with CATL, which will strengthen their collaboration in lithium battery materials and other fields [4]. - The establishment of a joint venture to produce 500,000 tons of ferrous oxalate annually is a significant step in controlling raw material costs and achieving a vertical supply chain [5]. - The automotive parts business is transitioning towards smart electric control and mechatronics, with a focus on new energy vehicle components and humanoid robot parts [6]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 29.38, reflecting a positive outlook based on expected growth in earnings and market position [9]. Strategic Collaborations - The company announced a capital increase with CATL, which will raise CATL's stake in Jiangxi Shenghua from 19% to 33% [4]. - This collaboration is expected to enhance order resilience and scalability for the company [4]. Production and Cost Management - The joint venture for ferrous oxalate production will help in reducing the cost of lithium iron phosphate production, with expectations of profit per ton increasing to RMB 2,000-3,000 by 2026 [5]. - The integrated supply chain strategy aims to solidify the company's position in high-end lithium iron phosphate materials [5]. Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, lowering the 2025 net profit estimate by 31% to RMB 568 million, while increasing the 2026 and 2027 estimates by 35% and 46% respectively [7]. - Revenue projections for 2026 are set at RMB 37.57 billion, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) expected [7][13]. Automotive Parts Business - The automotive parts segment is expanding into smart electric control systems and humanoid robot components, indicating a diversification of product offerings [6]. - The company aims to become a leading supplier in the domestic humanoid robot market through partnerships and customized solutions [6].

证券研究报告 Uber (UBER US) 进入 Robotaxi 叙事的重要验证期 2026 年 2 月 05 日│美国 互联网 Uber 公布 4Q25 业绩：总交易额为 541 亿美元，同比增长 22.5%，高于 VA 一致预期 1.7%，收入 143.7 亿美元，同比增长 20.1%，略高于预期 0.2%； 经调整 EBITDA 为 24.9 亿美元，同比增长 35.0%，高于预期 0.5%；GAAP 归母净利润为 3.0 亿美元，同比下降 95.7%，主要受股权投资公允价值变动 及一次性会计项目扰动。指引方面，公司对 1Q26 总交易额给出 520-535 亿美元指引区间，中值较预期高约 1%，而经调整 EBITDA 指引为 23.7-24.7 亿美元，中值较预期低约 1.2%。整体来看，4Q25 业绩和 1Q26 指引均呈 现增长小幅超预期但利润略逊预期。公司持续推进"混合供给网络"战略， 管理层预计 2026 年底前完成 15 个城市的 AV 部署，后续逐步扩大覆盖； 并多家企业建立深度合作，形成多元化供应体系，并通过战略投资 Waabi 和 Nuro 等锁定产能，目标在 2029 年成为全球最 ...

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 05 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 刘俊 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 姚雪梅 农林牧渔行业首席研究员 邮箱：yaoxuemei@htsc.com 樊俊豪 金控研究部负责人暨可选消费首席研 究员 邮箱：fanjunhao@htsc.com 今日热点 固定收益：沿着五大叙事与情绪钟摆找机会 近期市场波动明显加大，背后既受到资金和情绪钟摆的推动，又受到几大宏 观叙事的变化影响，具体包括：1）商品超级周期的演绎节奏和斜率；2）商 品涨价推动全球宏观象限或从复苏逐渐转向过热；3）流动性环境面临的扰 动与结构性机会；4）AI 链的分化是否会迎来收敛；5）春节前后的国内市场 的变化。配置策略上，短期市场波动率预计将维持高位，但市场情绪如钟 摆，在趋势未变的情况下，恐惧往往带来机会，同时关注宏观叙事变化背后 蕴含的趋势性机会。 风险提示：1）美国关税政策对经济的滞后效应；2）海外通胀超预期；3） 如果出口限制蔓延到长单，对中国月度消 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Insights - The ongoing negotiations regarding Indonesia's coal production quotas for 2026 have led some mines to suspend spot coal exports, which is expected to impact China's monthly average thermal coal consumption and imports by 0.5% and 4.2% respectively [2][3] - The export quota dispute is identified as the primary cause of the current fluctuations in Indonesia's coal supply, with the government planning to reduce the export quota from 790 million tons in 2025 to around 600 million tons in 2026 [2] - The report suggests that the impact of spot export restrictions on China's coal supply and demand is limited, as long-term contracts account for 90% of coal imports from Indonesia [3] - If the export restrictions extend to long-term contracts, the potential impact on China's monthly thermal coal consumption could reach 4.9% and imports could drop by 42% [4][8] - China's domestic coal production capacity is deemed sufficient to counteract supply disruptions, with the ability to cover approximately 36 million tons of coal supply, equivalent to 2.1 months of imports from Indonesia [5] Summary by Sections - **Export Quota Negotiations**: Indonesian mines are pausing spot coal exports due to disputes over production quotas, which may lead to a more flexible and self-driven export limitation by companies [2] - **Impact on China**: The suspension of spot exports is projected to have a minor effect on China's coal consumption and imports, with a maximum potential impact of 170 million tons per month if spot exports are completely halted [3] - **Domestic Response**: China's coal production capacity is capable of adjusting to maintain supply levels, mitigating the potential impact of Indonesian export restrictions [5] - **Price Implications**: If the export restrictions persist, it could lead to an increase in coal prices, benefiting companies with significant exposure to spot coal [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [7] Core Views - The report highlights three main investment themes for February: aviation, oil shipping, and road transportation, driven by the Spring Festival travel peak and geopolitical factors [1][2][3] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on major airlines [1][2] - Oil shipping is anticipated to see price increases due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply [1][3] - The road transportation sector is viewed as a stable dividend asset amid market volatility, with specific recommendations for certain stocks [1][5] Aviation - The passenger load factor for 2025 is projected to rise to 85.1%, with ticket prices showing a mixed trend [2][14] - The Spring Festival is expected to catalyze stock price movements, with a forecast of 95 million passengers during the travel period, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [16][28] - The report notes that fuel price increases are manageable, as fuel surcharges can cover most cost increases [20][21] Oil Shipping - In January, oil shipping rates continued to strengthen due to increased demand from geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran [3][34] - The report indicates that oil shipping rates are expected to rise further post-Spring Festival, despite a potential short-term dip during the holiday season [34][36] Logistics - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in volume growth, while prices remain stable [4] - There are signs of recovery in the hazardous materials logistics sector, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in the upstream chemical industry [4] Road Transportation - The road transportation sector is characterized by high demand for both passenger and freight services, with a notable increase in short-distance travel during the Spring Festival [5][28] - The report recommends specific stocks in the road sector, highlighting their potential for stable returns amid market fluctuations [1][5] Airport Operations - The report emphasizes the steady growth in passenger throughput at listed airports, with international routes contributing significantly to this growth [28] - It also notes that new capacity coming online may impact profitability, particularly for airports undergoing capital expenditure cycles [28][33]

证券研究报告 Uber (UBER US) 进入 Robotaxi 叙事的重要验证期 2026 年 2 月 05 日│美国 互联网 Uber 公布 4Q25 业绩：总交易额为 541 亿美元，同比增长 22.5%，高于 VA 一致预期 1.7%，收入 143.7 亿美元，同比增长 20.1%，略高于预期 0.2%； 经调整 EBITDA 为 24.9 亿美元，同比增长 35.0%，高于预期 0.5%；GAAP 归母净利润为 3.0 亿美元，同比下降 95.7%，主要受股权投资公允价值变动 及一次性会计项目扰动。指引方面，公司对 1Q26 总交易额给出 520-535 亿美元指引区间，中值较预期高约 1%，而经调整 EBITDA 指引为 23.7-24.7 亿美元，中值较预期低约 1.2%。整体来看，4Q25 业绩和 1Q26 指引均呈 现增长小幅超预期但利润略逊预期。公司持续推进"混合供给网络"战略， 管理层预计 2026 年底前完成 15 个城市的 AV 部署，后续逐步扩大覆盖； 并多家企业建立深度合作，形成多元化供应体系，并通过战略投资 Waabi 和 Nuro 等锁定产能，目标在 2029 年成为全球最 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 29.38 [9][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from strategic collaboration with leading customers and an integrated layout that reduces production costs, enhancing its competitiveness in the lithium battery materials business [3][4]. - The company plans to jointly increase capital in its subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua with CATL, which will strengthen its production capacity for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials [4]. - The establishment of a joint venture to produce 500,000 tons of ferrous oxalate annually is a significant step in controlling raw material costs and achieving a vertical supply chain [5]. - The automotive parts business is transitioning towards smart electric control and mechatronics, with a focus on components for new energy vehicles and humanoid robots [6]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 29.38, up from a previous value of RMB 20.48 [9][7]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit for 2025 is revised down by 31% to RMB 568 million, while profits for 2026 and 2027 are increased by 35% and 46% to RMB 1.897 billion and RMB 2.762 billion, respectively [7][15]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 0.33, RMB 1.11, and RMB 1.62, respectively [7][15]. - Revenue projections for 2026 are significantly increased to RMB 37.567 billion, reflecting a growth of 165.25% compared to the previous year [15][17]. Business Developments - The company is expanding its upstream raw material production capacity, which is expected to lower the cost of lithium iron phosphate per ton and enhance profit margins [5][6]. - The automotive parts segment is evolving to include smart thermal management systems and components for electric drive systems, indicating a strategic shift towards high-tech applications [6][16]. - The collaboration with leading firms in the humanoid robotics sector positions the company as a potential key supplier in this emerging market [6].