证券研究报告 联影医疗 (688271 CH) 3Q25 收入及归母净利均明显提速 2025 年 10 月 30 日│中国内地 医疗器械 公司 1-3Q25 实现收入 88.59 亿元（yoy+27.4%）、归母净利 11.20 亿元 （yoy+66.9%）、扣非归母净利 10.53 亿元（yoy+126.9%）；其中公司 3Q25 实现收入 28.43 亿元（yoy+75.4%）、归母净利 1.22 亿元（yoy+143.8%）、 扣非归母净利 8761 万元（yoy+126.2%），公司业绩逐季改善趋势进一步 确认，3Q25 业绩同比持续提速。考虑公司产品力行业领先，国内市场需求 积极回暖且海外渠道建设持续完善，看好公司 25 年实现提质提速发展。维 持"买入"评级。 三项费用率同比降低，现金流水平明显改善 公司 1-3Q25 毛利率为 47.0%（yoy-0.5pct），我们推测主因产品销售结构 变动。公司 1-3Q25 销售/管理/研发费用率分别为 17.2%/5.0%/14.1% （yoy-0.8/-0.9/-4.8pct），公司规模效应持续显现，叠加积极提升费用投入 效率，公司三项费用率同比有所降 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 313.62 [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown a revenue turning point in Q3 2025, with a revenue of RMB 90.91 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 25.01 billion, down 18.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its commercialization and R&D capabilities to improve its competitive position in the market [2]. - The life information and support segment led the overall revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a revenue of RMB 29.52 billion, up 2.6% year-on-year [3]. - The overseas business has accelerated growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching RMB 46.0 billion, up 11.9% year-on-year, while domestic revenue showed signs of recovery [4]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates of RMB 90.08 billion, RMB 100.07 billion, and RMB 110.12 billion respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 18%-21% compared to previous estimates [5]. Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of RMB 258.34 billion and a net profit of RMB 75.70 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 12.4% and 28.8% respectively [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 62.0%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to short-term external factors in the domestic industry [2]. - The company’s sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for the first three quarters of 2025 were 14.5%, 4.1%, and 9.4% respectively, indicating strategic investments in long-term development [2]. Segment Performance - The life information and support segment's overseas revenue accounted for 70% of its total revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a recovery in domestic procurement activities [3]. - The medical imaging segment reported a revenue of RMB 16.89 billion in Q3 2025, remaining stable year-on-year, with overseas revenue showing high single-digit growth [3]. - The IVD segment generated RMB 36.34 billion in revenue in Q3 2025, down 2.8% year-on-year, but with overseas revenue growth exceeding 10% [3]. Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about its future performance due to a rich product matrix, leading industry performance, and ongoing improvements in domestic and overseas sales networks [1]. - The company’s overseas market development is progressing well, particularly in Europe and emerging markets, which is expected to contribute positively to future growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 45.50 RMB [7][5]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth in the first three quarters, primarily driven by increased deliveries of radar-related products. The fourth quarter is expected to contribute substantially to the annual performance due to the defense construction needs during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2][4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from strong domestic and international demand for air defense early warning products, with several new products expected to enter mass procurement stages, leading to rapid growth in performance from 2025 to 2027 [1][4]. - The company is actively expanding into the low-altitude economy, developing safety detection systems and products, which have already secured bulk orders from users, indicating a promising growth trajectory in this sector [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3, the company achieved revenue of 66.14 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 224.84%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 58.95%. For the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue reached 585 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 579.06% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 13.91%, down 23.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for the first three quarters was 23.60%, up 5.03 percentage points year-on-year. The fluctuations in gross margin are attributed to the mix of new and mature products and the higher margins associated with military trade compared to the domestic market [3][5]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 116.03 million RMB, 219.01 million RMB, and 296.27 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.34 RMB, 0.65 RMB, and 0.88 RMB [5][11]. Market Outlook - The military trade market is expected to grow positively due to the increasing global demand for air defense capabilities, enhancing the company's international competitiveness in this sector [4]. - The low-altitude economy presents a significant growth opportunity, with the company focusing on key technologies for low-altitude target detection and recognition, further expanding its market presence [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in total revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 0.833 billion and net profit of 0.08 billion, representing year-on-year decreases of 47.5% and 68.5% respectively. Despite external pressures, the company is focusing on product, channel, and brand reforms to enhance operational performance and core competitiveness [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from an improved competitive landscape in its home province, leading to a gradual recovery in operational performance and profit margins [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 3.33 billion, a decrease of 18.5% year-on-year, with net profit down 28.0% to 0.4 billion. In Q3 alone, total revenue was 0.85 billion, down 47.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 66.3%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin fell to 61.4%, down 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Product and Market Analysis - The white liquor business generated revenue of 3.31 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, with products priced above 100 yuan performing better than those below 100 yuan, which saw declines of 15.0% and 22.1% respectively [2]. - Revenue from different regions showed that the home province (Hebei) generated 2.02 billion, down 13.8%, while other provinces experienced more significant declines [2]. Future Outlook - The report projects revenues for 2025-2027 to be 4.41 billion, 4.59 billion, and 4.87 billion respectively, with a downward adjustment of 18% for each year due to external demand pressures [4][12]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.65, 0.71, and 0.78 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 28% for 2025 compared to previous forecasts [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 43.21 RMB per share [6][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.08 billion RMB for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 820 million RMB, up 25% year-on-year. The growth is attributed to the mass production of 224G high-speed communication cables and the rapid increase in demand for new energy charging guns [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing construction of super nodes both domestically and internationally, with the potential for accelerated performance release post-2026 as production capacity increases [1][5]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.14 billion RMB, a 24% increase year-on-year but a 2% decrease quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same quarter was 264 million RMB, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase but a 14% decrease quarter-on-quarter due to transitional phases in server shipments from NVIDIA [1][3]. - The gross margin for the first nine months of 2025 was 32.08%, slightly down by 0.77 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 31.38%, down 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by a slowdown in demand in the electronic business [3]. Product and Market Development - The company has expanded its product range in high-speed communication cables, covering the full series from 1.6T to 224G, and is advancing research on the next generation of 448G cables. In the first half of 2025, revenue from high-speed communication cables reached 466 million RMB, a staggering 397.80% increase year-on-year [2]. - NVIDIA's positive guidance for GPU shipments in 2026 is expected to further boost demand for high-speed copper interconnects, with projected market space for the company reaching approximately 3.2 billion RMB in 2025 and 6.7 billion RMB in 2026 [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to see revenue and profit growth driven by the increasing demand for AI short-distance interconnects. The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.22 billion RMB, 2.18 billion RMB, and 2.61 billion RMB, respectively [5][10]. - The report suggests a PE ratio of 25x for 2026, leading to a target price of 43.21 RMB per share, reflecting a shift to a 2026 valuation framework [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 80.42 CNY [6][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue reached 148 million CNY, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.26% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 10.50%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 84.44 million CNY, with a year-over-year increase of 3.43% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 23.21% [1][2]. - The company has seen a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 401 million CNY (up 47.73% year-over-year) and net profit of 239 million CNY (up 72.91% year-over-year) [1][2]. - The company is expanding its product applications in various high-end sectors, including industrial, surveying, oil exploration, commercial aerospace, intelligent driving, and high-reliability fields [1][3]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance Review - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 148 million CNY, a year-over-year increase of 10.26% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 10.50%. The gross margin and net margin were 85.3% and 57.1%, respectively, showing a year-over-year decline of 1.6 and 3.8 percentage points [2]. - The company announced two major orders totaling 434 million CNY for delivery this year, but seasonal fluctuations in delivery schedules have led to a slowdown in revenue and profit growth in Q3 [2]. Outlook for 2H25 - The company is expected to launch new products in 2026, with its MEMS products accelerating penetration into new markets. The company is making progress in high-reliability, commercial aerospace, and autonomous driving sectors [3]. - The product matrix has expanded beyond high-precision gyroscopes to include FM resonant accelerometers and pressure sensors, with plans to introduce a cost-effective six-axis IMU chip for the civilian market in 2026 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report slightly lowers the revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 9%, 8%, and 5% to 650 million CNY, 970 million CNY, and 1.36 billion CNY, respectively. The net profit forecasts for the same years are adjusted downwards by 9%, 8%, and 5% to 370 million CNY, 500 million CNY, and 690 million CNY [4]. - The target price of 80.42 CNY is based on a 2025 PE ratio of 86X, reflecting a 20% premium over comparable companies' valuation of 71.7X PE [4].

证券研究报告 Q3 延续调整，看好洞藏释能 华泰研究 季报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 | 目标价(人民币): | 49.14 | | --- | --- | | 龚源月 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570520100001 | gongyuanyue@htsc.com | | SFC No. BQL737 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | 宋英男 | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570523100004 | songyingnan@htsc.com | | SFC No. BVO704 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 基本数据 迎驾贡酒 (603198 CH) | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 10 月 29 日) | 39.07 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 31,256 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 339.04 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 38.43-67.75 | 股价走势图 (37) (22) (7) 8 23 Oct-24 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 (%) 迎驾贡酒 沪 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 20.13 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a Q3 revenue of RMB 4.805 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.55% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 5.89%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 500 million, showing a significant year-over-year increase of 62.48% but a quarter-over-quarter decline of 11.41% [1]. - The company's brand, "Wuji," is driving a strategic shift from low-end OEM to self-owned mid-to-high-end products, enhancing its export capabilities and profitability [1]. - The company has expanded its global footprint in three-wheeled vehicles, achieving coverage in key regions of West, East, and North Africa, and successfully entering Central and West Asia [2]. Revenue Performance - In Q3, the company experienced a slight decline in revenue compared to the previous quarter, attributed to adjustments in its OEM business share. However, sales of its self-branded products continued to grow, with a 24% year-over-year increase in sales of 250cc+ motorcycles, totaling 40,000 units. Export sales of 250cc+ motorcycles surged by 73% year-over-year, exceeding 20,000 units [2]. - The company also reported a 79.5% year-over-year increase in three-wheeled vehicle exports, reaching 45,000 units in Q3 [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 improved by 1.15 percentage points year-over-year to 18.8%, driven by an increase in the sales proportion of self-owned brands. The net profit margin for Q3 rose to 10.4%, reflecting a 3.7 percentage point increase year-over-year [3]. - The company maintained low operating expense ratios, with sales expense ratio at 1.24%, management expense ratio at 2.4%, and R&D expense ratio at 2.0% [3]. Brand Development - The "Wuji" brand continues to expand its product lineup, becoming a key driver of revenue growth. The company is launching high-performance and personalized strategic new products in the domestic market while solidifying its leading position in the overseas market with self-developed mid-to-large displacement models [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.898 billion, RMB 2.356 billion, and RMB 2.846 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 36.41%. The expected EPS for these years is RMB 0.92, RMB 1.15, and RMB 1.39 [5]. - The target price is based on a PE ratio of 17.5x for 2026, resulting in a target price of RMB 20.13, adjusted from a previous value of RMB 21.71 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 90.72 RMB [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 364.716 billion RMB for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37.883 billion RMB, up 19.51% year-on-year [1][5]. - The strategic upgrade focuses on "technology leadership, direct user access, digital intelligence, and global expansion," enhancing its competitive position in traditional home appliance sectors while expanding into new markets [1][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved tariff conditions and is positioned as a long-term quality investment target [1]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, total revenue increased by 9.94% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 8.95% [1][21]. - The company’s air conditioning sales showed a decline in both domestic and international markets, with domestic sales down 9.3% and international sales down 14.4% [2]. - The company is actively enhancing its overseas production capacity to mitigate tax impacts from tariffs [2]. Business Segment Growth - The ToB business segment has shown strong growth momentum, with revenues from new energy and industrial technology reaching 30.6 billion RMB, up 21% year-on-year [3]. - Smart building technology revenue was 28.1 billion RMB, reflecting a 25% increase year-on-year, supported by contributions from ARBONIA climate and Toshiba elevators [3]. - Robotics and automation revenue reached 22.6 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first nine months of 2025 was 26.21%, a slight decrease of 0.15 percentage points year-on-year, but Q3 2025 saw a gross margin increase of 1.11 percentage points [4]. - The overall expense ratio decreased by 1.17 percentage points year-on-year, with management and financial expense ratios also showing improvements [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 44.87 billion RMB, 49.80 billion RMB, and 55.07 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.84, 6.48, and 7.17 RMB [5][31]. - The expected average PE ratio for the industry in 2026 is 14x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to the company's projected performance [5][32]. Revenue Growth Projections - Total revenue is expected to reach 453.0 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.7%, and further growth projected at 8.1% and 7.3% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [26]. - The smart home business is anticipated to remain a core profit contributor, with revenue growth driven by domestic demand and international market penetration [20][26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 46.63 [1]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth driven by multiple factors, including strong performance in the new energy vehicle thermal management business and the gradual ramp-up of products in energy storage thermal management and liquid cooling modules [6][7]. - The company is actively expanding into data center thermal management, leveraging its technology and process advantages from automotive thermal management, with a clear development strategy [8]. - The humanoid robot business is progressing steadily, with a focus on expanding the product line through self-research and collaboration with leading domestic and international clients [9]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 3.89 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.38% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.69%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 230 million, up 14.48% year-on-year [6]. - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 11.06 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.12%, with a net profit of RMB 672 million, an increase of 11.18% year-on-year [6]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 19.4%, with a net margin of 6.9%, showing slight fluctuations due to changes in business structure [7]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 12.70 billion in 2024 to RMB 22.30 billion in 2027, with compound annual growth rates of 15.28%, 23.99%, 19.10%, and 18.86% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from RMB 783.53 million in 2024 to RMB 1.65 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 28.00%, 28.16%, 31.50%, and 24.94% respectively [5]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is RMB 1.19, with a PE ratio of 32.79x, and the target price corresponds to a PE of 34.1x for 2025 [10].