| 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 06 日│中国香港 | 发电 | 6 月 5 日中电控股出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司分享近 期经营变化和后续展望。我们认为主要关注点包括：1）稳定型业务：随资 本投入转固，管制业务利润贡献或稳步增厚；Q1 中国内地核电机组稳健运 行，阳江核电站电价略有下滑。2）成长型业务：Q1 中国内地、印度多个 零碳项目顺利投产，零碳项目投资计划的落地或为公司业绩注入成长潜力。 稳定型业务：Q1 中国香港售电量同比-2.6%，中国内地核电资产稳健运行 据公司公告，受天气和暖、2024 年为闰年等因素影响，虽数据中心等新兴 行业用电需求增长，Q1 中国香港售电量 70.91 亿度，同比-2.6%。但考虑 到现行管制计划协议约定公司电力业务实现的准许利润占固定资产净额的 比例为 8%，我们依旧看好在高确定性资本开支（2024-28 年预计 529 亿港 元）的保障下，随资本投入不断转固，利润贡献或稳步增厚。核电业务方面， 受益于停运天数减少，Q1 大亚湾核电站发电量同比增加；广东省 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is optimistic about long-term aluminum prices and has a strong dividend profile, which supports the investment thesis [1][2] - The planned acquisition of 100% equity in Hongtuo Industrial by the holding company Hongchuang Holdings is expected to enhance the company's market influence and asset securitization level [2] - The decline in energy prices is anticipated to reduce costs, while the upcoming production of the Simandou iron ore project is expected to contribute positively to the company's performance [3] Summary by Sections Acquisition and Restructuring - Hongchuang Holdings plans to issue shares to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial for approximately 635.18 billion RMB, which will slightly dilute the company's shareholding from 95.30% to about 88.99% [2] Cost and Production Outlook - The average coal price at Qinhuangdao Port for the first five months of 2025 was 703 RMB/ton, down from 872 RMB/ton in 2024, which is expected to lower electricity costs in Shandong [3] - The Simandou iron ore project is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, with a designed capacity of 60 million tons per year [3] Aluminum Price and Profitability - Short-term demand for electrolytic aluminum may face seasonal declines, but supply constraints and high demand in sectors like new energy vehicles are expected to keep prices stable [4] - The company forecasts a gradual increase in aluminum prices from 2025 to 2026, with a projected net profit of 161.29 billion RMB in 2025 [5] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 161.29 billion RMB, 177.51 billion RMB, and 212.85 billion RMB respectively [5] - The target price is set at 15.37 HKD, with a historical average PE ratio of 7.03X since 2017 [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 103.67 [6][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is optimistic about the development opportunities brought by AIGC and Chiplet, which are expected to enhance its IP and custom chip service business [1]. - The company has made significant investments in the AI sector, aiming to capture the growing demand for high-performance AI chips driven by AIGC [2]. - The transition from SoC to SiP in the chip industry is being accelerated, with the company focusing on Chiplet technology to meet the needs of high-performance computing and smart transportation [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The target price is set at RMB 103.67, with a closing price of RMB 90.12 as of June 5 [7][6]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of RMB -1.05 million, RMB 0.13 million, and RMB 0.56 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The valuation for the custom chip/IP licensing business is set at 12.0x and 30.0x for 2025, with a target market value of RMB 51.925 billion [11]. Business Highlights - The company has established a strong competitive position in the AI sector, with its NPU IP being utilized by 72 clients across 128 AI chip models [2]. - The company is actively developing Chiplet solutions for AIGC and smart transportation, collaborating with leading firms in the AI sector [3].

证券研究报告 布鲁可 (325 HK) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 稳步推新，迈向破圈，成长势能强劲 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 06 日│中国香港 | 消费轻工 | 6 月 4-5 日布鲁可出席我们举办的 2025 年中期策略会，就市场关注的发展 策略等核心问题进行分享，我们总结要点：1）看趋势，3 月以来公司推新 节奏加快，新产品及新 IP 陆续上新，我们认为有望贡献增长亮点，看好 25 年全年经营势能向上；2）看壁垒，公司建立并深耕"布鲁可体系"，结合标 准化积木系统+广泛专利布局、庞大且持续拓展的高质量 IP 矩阵、高效上新 &好而不贵的产品体系建立竞争护城河；3）看远景，我们认为公司以全人 群+全价位+全球化为增长引擎，未来有望在客群端破圈、在价位端延展、 在海外市场加速布局，增长曲线清晰。我们看好公司作为优质 IP 商业化平 台的长期增长潜力及稀缺性，上调目标价至 188 港币，维持"买入"评级。 推新节奏加快，下沉市场表现亮眼，迈向客群破圈 盈利预测与估值 我们维持盈利预测，预计 25-27 年经 ...

证券研究报告 明阳智能 (601615 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递—— 风机盈利持续修复,海外海风放量可期 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 06 日│中国内地 | 电源设备 | 6 月 5 日明阳智能出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司介绍了 近期经营情况及全年经营展望，同时针对市场需求、竞争格局及技术路线进 行了讨论。我们看好公司国内海风龙头地位稳固，海外海风布局领先，有望 充分受益于全球海风高景气，实现海风出货高增，驱动盈利能力修复，维持 "买入"评级。 国内海风出货高增，成本持续优化 前期由于用海政策、航道等问题解决进度较慢，导致国内部分海风项目开工 不及预期。目前限制性因素基本解决，广东、江苏等海风项目陆续开工，其 中公司份额较高的青洲五七、帆石一已启动风机打桩，或支撑全年出货高增， 我们预计公司 25 年海风出货 4GW，同比+135%。公司议价能力较强，供 应链价格稳定，通过提高叶片自供比例、优化经营效率实现降本，盈利能力 或持续提升。公司漂浮式风机技术储备深厚，充分受益于国内深远海 ...

证券研究报告 布鲁可 (325 HK) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 稳步推新，迈向破圈，成长势能强劲 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 06 日│中国香港 | 消费轻工 | 6 月 4-5 日布鲁可出席我们举办的 2025 年中期策略会，就市场关注的发展 策略等核心问题进行分享，我们总结要点：1）看趋势，3 月以来公司推新 节奏加快，新产品及新 IP 陆续上新，我们认为有望贡献增长亮点，看好 25 年全年经营势能向上；2）看壁垒，公司建立并深耕"布鲁可体系"，结合标 准化积木系统+广泛专利布局、庞大且持续拓展的高质量 IP 矩阵、高效上新 &好而不贵的产品体系建立竞争护城河；3）看远景，我们认为公司以全人 群+全价位+全球化为增长引擎，未来有望在客群端破圈、在价位端延展、 在海外市场加速布局，增长曲线清晰。我们看好公司作为优质 IP 商业化平 台的长期增长潜力及稀缺性，上调目标价至 188 港币，维持"买入"评级。 推新节奏加快，下沉市场表现亮眼，迈向客群破圈 3 月以来公司推新节奏明显加快：1）主力产品群星版中，3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.58 RMB [9][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a strong position in the domestic offshore wind market and a leading overseas offshore wind layout, which will drive significant profit recovery [3][4]. - Domestic offshore wind shipments are projected to increase significantly, with an expected 4GW shipment in 2025, representing a 135% year-on-year growth [4]. - The company has a strong bargaining power and is optimizing costs through improved operational efficiency and increased self-supply of blades, which is likely to enhance profitability [4]. - The European offshore wind market is experiencing high growth, with a forecasted CAGR of 28.6% from 2025 to 2030, and the company is well-positioned to capture orders in this region [5]. - The progress of power station transfers is slowing, but the impact on profitability is expected to be limited due to stable returns from existing projects [6]. Summary by Sections Domestic Offshore Wind Market - The company is expected to see a high increase in domestic offshore wind shipments, with significant projects in Guangdong and Jiangsu starting operations [4]. - The company is projected to achieve a 135% increase in offshore wind shipments in 2025, reaching 4GW [4]. Overseas Market Expansion - The company has a leading position in overseas offshore wind markets, actively engaging in projects in Italy, Scotland, and Norway, as well as entering the Japanese and Korean markets [5]. - The high pricing in Europe and Japan is anticipated to contribute positively to the company's profit margins [5]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit is forecasted to be 2.206 billion RMB in 2025, with a significant increase of 537.32% compared to the previous year [8]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 38.101 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 40.29% increase year-on-year [8]. - The report maintains the profit forecast for the company, projecting net profits of 22.06 billion RMB, 31.30 billion RMB, and 39.92 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 47.00 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on high-quality growth through channel optimization and product offerings, with expectations for same-store sales to turn positive in May [1][2]. - The company is enhancing its overseas operations with localized strategies and optimizing direct store expenses, which is expected to drive revenue growth [3][4]. - Short-term profit fluctuations are anticipated due to the ramp-up phase of high-growth businesses, but improvements in operational models are expected to enhance profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Operations - The company is adjusting its product offerings to better match market demands, focusing on high-quality products in higher-tier markets and cost-effective options in lower-tier markets [2]. - The closure of underperforming stores and the opening of flagship "IP Land" stores are part of the strategy to drive growth, with expectations for same-store sales to stabilize [2]. Overseas Operations - The company aims to increase its store count by 500-600 locations this year, with improvements in same-store sales in North America due to cost optimization strategies [3]. - The establishment of a product development team in North America is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [3]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 29.9 billion, RMB 37.3 billion, and RMB 45.7 billion respectively, with a target price based on a PE ratio of 18x for 2025 [5][7]. - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory with expected revenues of RMB 20.7 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.83% [7][19].

证券研究报告 药明合联 (2268 HK) 2025 年中期策略会速递— ADC 赛道景气，全球双厂战略推进 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国香港 | 生物医药 | 截至 2024 年底，公司储备订单金额合计 9.91 亿美元（+71%yoy）；2024 年综合项目数量达 194 个（+36%yoy），包含 15 个 III 期临床项目（8 个处 于 PPQ 阶段，较 2023 年的 5 个显著提升）及 1 个商业化阶段项目。综合 项目获取顺利，临床阶段项目持续向后转化，新加坡工厂落成后有望进一步 吸引海外后期项目订单。 6 月 4 日药明合联出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司指出当 前 ADC 赛道热度持续攀升，2024 年报显示在手订单与项目数量储备均持 续高速增长，产能端国内及海外生产设施建设正有序推进。我们重申公司在 全球产业链地位稳固、业绩持续兑现能力强劲，维持"买入"。 ADC 行业发展东风正劲 全球双厂战略推进，海外产能落成在即 商业化及后期临床生产需求攀升：1）德达博妥单 ...

证券研究报告 中国海油 (883 HK/600938 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 天然气增量可期，提高分红彰显信心 | 华泰研究 | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 石油（天然气）开采 | 6 月 4 日中国海油出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司详细描 述了今年一季度的经营情况，重申了 25 年全年的产量、资本开支以及分红 指引，同时简要介绍了海外区块及天然气业务的主要成果及未来规划。考虑 公司稳油增气、提质降本效果卓越，抵御油价波动的韧性显著提升，维持 A/H"买入"评级。 关税预期修正，OPEC 连续上调产量目标，5 月油价先反弹后回落 5月中美经贸会谈取得实质性进展，而 OPEC集团连续上调 5-7月产量目标， 油价先反弹后回落。据 Wind，6 月 4 日 WTI/Brent 期货收于 62.85/66.61 美元/桶，较 5 月初上涨 6.1%/4.4%。考虑贸易政策扰动下全球宏观经济及 石油需求预期不确定性仍存，以及 OPEC+内部协同意愿显著趋弱，我们维 持 25-26 年布伦特原 ...