证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 德国电动车补贴利好锂电产业链 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 20 日│中国内地 动态点评 锂电需求有望上修，欧洲产业链相关标的弹性更大 我们预计政策可带动电动车新增需求在 0~80 万辆之间，按照单车带电量 60kWh 计算，对应电池新增需求 0~48GWh，占 26 年全球电池需求约 0~1.7%。看好锂电需求上修带来业绩增量，欧洲产业链相关标的弹性更大， 看好欧洲敞口大的相关环节标的，首选电池环节宁德时代、亿纬锂能，三元 正极当升科技，此外其余锂电产业链也有望受益于需求上修，推荐磷酸铁锂 环节湖南裕能、负极环节尚太科技、电解液环节天赐材料。 德国政府 1 月 19 日宣布，联邦政府气候与转型基金拨款 30 亿欧元，对新 购入电动汽车的家庭提供最高 6000 欧元的补贴，以推动其电动汽车产业发 展，这是德国在 2023 年底终止原有电动汽车购车补贴政策后，再次提供类 似补贴。我们认为政策意在扶持电动车产业发展，补贴倾向纯电汽车+中低 收入人群，看好锂电需求上修带来锂电产业链公司业绩增量，推荐宁德时代、 亿纬锂能、当升科技、湖南裕能、尚太科技、天赐材料。 政策意在扶持电动车产 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 上游涨价抬成本，关税松绑拓空间 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 20 日│中国内地 动态点评 近期汽车行业三大关键变化值得关注：存储芯片、铜铝等涨价给整车企业成 本带来压力；博世业绩承压，反映欧洲供应链转型挑战；加拿大下调中国电 动汽车关税至 6.1%，中国车企开辟北美市场迎机遇。全球汽车产业格局处 于深度调整阶段，建议关注具备全产业链优势、积极布局全球的整车企业。 上游涨价：存储涨价提高中高端车成本，铜铝价攀升更影响新能源车 （1）存储芯片涨价对中高端车成本影响更大：低端车（5-10 万元） RAM+ROM 总量不足 100GB，中高端车（15-30 万元）存储总量普遍超 500GB，高端智能车（30 万元以上）突破 1TB。内存价格翻倍下，RAM/ROM 单价将提升 20 元/GB 及 2 元/GB，低端车和中高端车存储相差较大（RAM 分别为 5-10GB 及 24-88GB，ROM 分别为 40-72GB 及 160-512GB），在 其他因素不变情况下，低端车（售价 10 万元）成本仅增 180-344 元（占售 价比约 0.2%~0.3%）；而中高端车（售价 15~30 万元） ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The demand for yellow phosphorus is expected to improve due to growth in downstream phosphoric acid and terminal materials for new energy, electronic-grade phosphoric acid, and fine phosphates. The high prices of sulfur and sulfuric acid are enhancing the cost competitiveness of thermal phosphoric acid over wet phosphoric acid, which may further boost the demand for thermal process phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus [5][6] - The supply of yellow phosphorus is strictly controlled in China due to high energy consumption and environmental safety concerns, with only limited new capacity being added through capacity replacement. The dual carbon policy may lead to the elimination of high-energy-consuming existing capacity, which is expected to optimize the supply side [6][7] - The average operating rate of the domestic yellow phosphorus industry is projected to reach approximately 63% in 2025, the highest level since 2017, driven by favorable supply and demand dynamics. The price of yellow phosphorus is showing an upward trend, with a reference price of around 23,000 yuan per ton as of January 19, 2025, reflecting a 2.4% increase from the end of 2025 [7][5] Summary by Sections Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for yellow phosphorus is projected to grow by 26% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 850,000 tons, while phosphoric acid consumption is expected to increase by 19% to 2.96 million tons. The five-year CAGR for yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid is estimated at 5% and 12%, respectively [5][6] - The high prices of sulfur and sulfuric acid, which have reached nearly a decade high, are expected to drive the demand for thermal phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus. The cost advantage of thermal phosphoric acid over wet phosphoric acid is becoming more pronounced, especially considering the offset from by-products [5][6] Supply Constraints - The domestic yellow phosphorus capacity has decreased from 1.9 million tons in 2013 to 1.41 million tons in 2020, with a slight recovery to 1.58 million tons by the end of 2025, primarily due to capacity replacement. Only ten companies have a capacity of 50,000 tons or more, indicating a highly concentrated industry [6][39] - The dual carbon policy is expected to continue limiting new supply, with high-energy-consuming and inefficient capacities facing elimination pressure [6][7] Price Trends and Market Outlook - The average operating rate for yellow phosphorus is expected to improve, with a projected increase in monthly operating rates throughout 2025. The price of yellow phosphorus is anticipated to be supported by potential supply disruptions and increasing demand from new energy and electronic chemical sectors [7][5] - Companies with integrated operations in the yellow phosphorus value chain, including mining, yellow phosphorus production, and phosphoric acid, are expected to benefit significantly from the favorable market conditions [5][7]

Group 1: Electric Equipment and New Energy - The German government announced a €3 billion subsidy for families purchasing electric vehicles, providing up to €6,000 per household, aimed at boosting the electric vehicle industry and supporting lithium battery demand [2] - The report recommends companies in the lithium battery supply chain, including CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others, due to expected performance growth driven by increased lithium battery demand [2] Group 2: Automotive Industry - Key changes in the automotive industry include rising costs from storage chips and copper, Bosch's performance challenges reflecting European supply chain transitions, and Canada's reduction of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 6.1%, creating opportunities for Chinese automakers in North America [3] - The report suggests focusing on automakers with comprehensive industry chain advantages and global expansion strategies [3] Group 3: Basic Chemicals - The demand for yellow phosphorus is expected to improve due to growth in downstream phosphoric acid and new energy materials, with high sulfur prices enhancing the competitiveness of thermal phosphoric acid [4] - Domestic production capacity for yellow phosphorus is strictly controlled, leading to a favorable supply-demand dynamic that may benefit integrated companies in the phosphorus industry [4] Group 4: Consumer Sector - In December, China's retail sales increased by 0.9% year-on-year to CNY 4.5 trillion, with a focus on durable goods like automobiles and home appliances [6] - The report highlights structural opportunities in high-growth sectors, recommending investments in domestic brands, technology consumption, and high-dividend stocks [6] Group 5: Fixed Income - The ABS market is expected to recover in 2026, with a shift in supply structure and increased activity in consumer finance and real estate ABS [7] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in financing demand, although total ABS issuance may not see significant growth [7] Group 6: Utilities - China's electricity prices have been declining, while the U.S. faces electricity shortages, leading to a divergence in electricity stock valuations between the two countries [8] - The report recommends undervalued power operators, as stable coal prices could support electricity prices and valuations in the sector [8] Group 7: Key Companies - TCL Electronics announced a strategic partnership with Sony to enhance its global leadership in home entertainment, projecting a 45%-60% increase in adjusted net profit for 2025 [10] - Yanjing Beer expects a 50%-65% increase in net profit for 2025, driven by operational improvements and market strategies [11] - Sony's strategic partnership with TCL aims to streamline its home entertainment business, focusing on high-growth areas and enhancing operational efficiency [12] - Xingyu Co. is advancing its Micro-LED technology through a strategic partnership, aiming to accelerate the commercialization of this technology [13] - China Duty Free Group plans to acquire DFS assets to strengthen its position in the Hong Kong and Macau markets, enhancing its competitive edge [15]

证券研究报告 与索尼战略合作优势互补，强化全球 领导地位 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国香港 视听器材 公司 20 日公告与索尼就家庭娱乐领域签署战略合作的意向备忘录，并于 18 日预告了 2025 全年业绩：经调整归母净利約在 23.3 亿至 25.7 亿港元之间， 同比约 45%至 60%的增长（优于股权计划目标上限 45%增长）。公司凭借 "全球化"与"中高端化"战略，在国际市场份额稳步提升，同时受益于国内"以 旧换新"政策的优化延续。此外，与索尼潜在的深度战略合作（拟成立合资 公司承接索尼家庭娱乐业务）有望进一步强化全球份额优势。与此同时，公 司积极推进智能化与 AI 应用落地，在 AI 电视、智能眼镜、AI 陪伴机器人等 前沿产品上已有布局，新一轮产品周期或将打开成长空间，支撑公司长期价 值提升。维持"买入"评级。 港股通 TCL 电子 (1070 HK) 推动索尼合作、优势互补，或助力提升公司全球地位 2026 年 1 月 20 日，TCL 电子公告与索尼签署战略合作的意向备忘录，涉 及成立合资公司承接索尼家庭娱乐业务，合资公司将由本集团持股 51%及 索尼持股 49%，并在全球范围内开展包 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 222.42 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company has made significant progress in the Micro-LED industry by signing a strategic cooperation agreement with ChipLink and Jiufengshan Laboratory to establish Wuhan Xingxi Light Technology Co., Ltd., with an investment of RMB 3 billion for R&D and manufacturing projects [1][2]. - The collaboration aims to integrate vehicle application scenarios, advanced chip manufacturing, and a national-level pilot platform, facilitating the industrialization of Micro-LED vehicle lighting and other advanced technologies [1][2]. - The Micro-LED market is projected to reach USD 15.7 billion by 2030, with significant demand expected in automotive displays, AR/VR, and specialty lighting [3]. - The company is positioned to leverage its partnerships to enhance competitiveness in high-end projects and expand into high-value areas such as micro-displays and AI displays [3][4]. Summary by Sections Strategic Cooperation - The company has deepened its Micro-LED strategy through partnerships that integrate key aspects of vehicle applications, chip manufacturing, and semiconductor research, creating a comprehensive industry ecosystem [2]. Market Potential - Micro-LED technology is recognized for its high brightness, rapid response, long lifespan, and pixel-level control, making it a crucial direction for future displays and light sources [3]. Growth Opportunities - The company is capitalizing on smart vehicle trends, expanding its global footprint with projects in Europe and North America, and diversifying into new business areas such as intelligent robotics [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 166 billion, RMB 204 billion, and RMB 257 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 18.09 billion, RMB 22.68 billion, and RMB 28.52 billion [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the autonomous driving sector, including Horizon Robotics, Hesai Technology, Pony.ai, WeRide, Xiaopeng Motors, and Suda Technology [6][8]. Core Insights - The U.S. House of Representatives is reviewing the "SELF DRIVE Act of 2026," which proposes to increase the exemption limit for manufacturers from 2,500 vehicles to 90,000 vehicles, significantly enhancing the potential for Robotaxi mass production [1][2]. - The legislation aims to resolve core obstacles to the scaling of Robotaxi deployment, including the introduction of a "deemed approval" mechanism for exemption applications and establishing federal regulations as a priority over state laws [2][3]. - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the global L4 autonomous driving industry, with the U.S. federal legislative framework becoming clearer and China accelerating its L3 pilot projects and L4 commercialization [1][4]. Summary by Sections Legislative Developments - The "SELF DRIVE Act of 2026" is expected to break a decade-long legislative deadlock, with bipartisan support leading to a clearer timeline for implementation [3]. - Key milestones include committee markup meetings in Q1 2026 and potential integration with the 2026 Surface Transportation Reauthorization Act [3]. Market Expansion - The U.S. Robotaxi market is transitioning from technology validation to large-scale expansion, with companies like Waymo and Tesla ramping up operations [4]. - Waymo's weekly paid orders reached 450,000 by December 2025, with plans to expand operations from 10 to 30 cities [4]. - Tesla's Cybercab is expected to begin mass production in April 2026, further contributing to market growth [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the synchronized development of L4 autonomous driving in both the U.S. and China, suggesting that this convergence will drive significant industry growth [5]. - Companies such as WeRide and Pony.ai are highlighted for their international expansion efforts, while other L4 applications like Robovan and Robotruck are also gaining traction [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 222.42 [1][5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is advancing its Micro-LED industry layout through a strategic partnership with ChipLink Integration and Jiufengshan Laboratory, establishing Wuhan Xingxi Light Technology Co., Ltd. with an investment of RMB 3 billion to develop Micro-LED technology for automotive lighting and other applications [1][2]. - The collaboration aims to create a complete industrial chain from basic research to engineering mass production, accelerating the commercialization of Micro-LED technology and reducing costs [1][3]. - The Micro-LED market is projected to reach USD 15.7 billion by 2030, with significant demand expected in automotive displays, AR/VR, and specialty lighting [3]. - The company is positioned to leverage its strengths in high-value products and expand into new business areas, including intelligent robotics and global markets [4]. Summary by Sections Strategic Cooperation - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance its Micro-LED strategy, integrating automotive applications, chip manufacturing, and semiconductor research [2]. Market Potential - Micro-LED technology is recognized for its high brightness, fast response, long lifespan, and pixel-level control, making it a key direction for future displays and light sources [3]. Growth Opportunities - The company is expanding its customer base with new energy vehicle manufacturers and has secured international projects with major automotive brands [4]. - New business ventures, such as intelligent robotics, are being explored to diversify growth avenues [4]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 166 billion, RMB 204 billion, and RMB 257 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 18.09 billion, RMB 22.68 billion, and RMB 28.52 billion [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its stock performance [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 33.754 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.001 billion RMB, up 17.26% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 977 million RMB by Huatai [1][2]. - The company's diversified energy strategy, focusing on "Energy + Technology + Supply Chain," is expected to drive growth and enhance long-term investment value [1][3]. - The energy and chemical business has become the core growth driver, with revenue reaching 15.717 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20.97%, while the city gas business saw a decline in revenue [2][3]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In 2025, the company supplied 4.931 billion cubic meters of natural gas. The city gas business generated revenue of 12.493 billion RMB, down 14.83%, while the energy and chemical business became the main revenue engine [2]. - The company is actively expanding into high-growth sectors such as petrochemical products, hydrogen energy, thermal energy, photovoltaics, and energy storage, which aligns with industry trends towards energy transition [3]. Financial Health - As of the end of 2025, the company reported total assets of 20.193 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, and net assets attributable to shareholders of 9.002 billion RMB, up 5.71% [4]. - The company has implemented a high dividend policy, distributing a cash dividend of 0.25 RMB per share, with a payout ratio of 66%. It commits to a minimum annual cash dividend of 65% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the next three years [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been raised by 1.3% to 1.05 billion RMB and 1.1 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.81 RMB and 0.85 RMB [5]. - The target price for 2026 is set at 14.58 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 18x, which is higher than the comparable company average PE of 13x [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 792 HKD [6][5][28] Core Insights - Tencent is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 13% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit increasing by 16% to 643 billion RMB. The revenue growth is driven by gaming, advertising, and fintech, with expected increases of 16%, 20%, and 9% respectively [1][5][24] - Key catalysts for Tencent in the medium term include the launch of multiple new games, improvements in advertising efficiency due to AI, and the introduction of AI tools for mini-program development on WeChat [1][3][4] Summary by Sections Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming revenue is projected to grow by 16% in Q4, with the new game "Counter-Strike: Future" expected to generate 3.5 to 7 billion RMB in its first year. The game fills a gap in the PVE shooting genre and has already attracted over 10 million players shortly after launch [2][12][16] Advertising Business - Advertising revenue is anticipated to increase by 20% in Q4, driven by budget increases from long-tail advertisers and efficiency gains from AI. WeChat's advertising capabilities are evolving, with new features enhancing social commerce [4][19] Fintech and AI Mini-Programs - Fintech revenue is expected to grow by 9%, supported by a robust performance in social retail. AI mini-programs are projected to expand significantly in 2026, with a 108% increase in monetization scale and a 75% rise in eCPM in 2025 [3][19] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been slightly adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with expected adjusted net profits of 263.1 billion, 299.4 billion, and 342.5 billion RMB respectively. The target price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21.6 for 2026 [5][24][28]