Fixed Income Market - The bond market has shown a strong performance in the past two weeks, with the yield on the 10-year government bond decreasing from 1.90% to 1.83%, a decline of 6.7 basis points [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond fell from 2.34% to 2.26%, a decrease of 7.4 basis points, indicating a significant rebound this week [2] - Short-term interest rates have also declined, with the 1-year government bond yield dropping from 1.36% to 1.29% [2] Global Long-term Bond Rates - Recent increases in long-term interest rates in the US and Japan have negatively impacted global bond and stock markets [3] - The rise in global long-term bond rates reflects more than just a recovery in fundamentals; it indicates challenges to fiscal discipline in developed countries and concerns over long-term demand for bonds [3] - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment, recommending a wait-and-see strategy for adjustments in the market [3] Transportation Industry - In December, the growth rate of retail sales and online retail sales slowed down due to the reduction of subsidies for trade-in programs [5] - The volume of express deliveries also saw a slowdown, with year-on-year growth dropping from 6.4% in November to 2.6% in December [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong overseas growth potential, such as Jitu Express, and those with robust cash flow and competitive advantages like ZTO Express [5] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in 2025 saw a decline in supply and demand, but the rate of decline has slowed, indicating a potential stabilization [6] - Structural opportunities exist in core cities and certain second and third-tier cities, where some companies have performed well [6] - The report anticipates continued policy support aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, benefiting leading companies with strong resource acquisition capabilities [6] Environmental Protection Industry - Longking Environmental Protection is positioned as a leader in China's air pollution control industry, with a focus on green energy services linked to mining operations [7] - The company is expected to benefit from its projects in renewable energy and electric mining vehicles, which are anticipated to drive long-term growth [7] Non-ferrous Metals Industry - Zijin Mining is expected to benefit from rising copper and gold prices, with projected net profit growth of 57% in 2026 and 23% in 2027 [8] - The company is viewed as a stable operator with strong growth potential, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] Logistics Industry - Manbang Group is projected to have a revenue of 3.2 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 1% [9] - The company has announced a shareholder return plan, committing to return at least 50% of its non-GAAP net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [9] Media and Entertainment Industry - Netflix reported a 17% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4, exceeding expectations, with a net profit increase of 29.4% [9] - The company anticipates revenue of $50.7 to $51.7 billion in 2026, with a focus on expanding advertising revenue and leveraging AI in content production [9] Food Industry - Lihigh Foods expects a revenue of 4.26 to 4.42 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit growth of 16.1% to 23.5% [10] - The company is projected to recover in its frozen baking business and maintain strong growth in its cream business [10] Sportswear Industry - Anta Sports reported a slight decline in its main brand revenue in Q4 2025 but expects double-digit growth for the full year [16] - The company is focusing on a multi-brand strategy and plans to increase investment in product development and sports resources [16] Restaurant Industry - Xiaocaiyuan has seen a significant increase in its takeaway revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 13.7% in the first half of 2025 [17] - The company is adjusting its menu pricing and product offerings to enhance its competitive edge and focus on quality growth [17] Electronics Industry - TCL Electronics announced a strategic partnership with Sony, which is expected to enhance its global market position [18] - The company anticipates a net profit growth of 45% to 60% in 2025, driven by its globalization and mid-to-high-end strategies [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 109.21 [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Anta Sports experienced a low single-digit negative growth in brand revenue for Q4 2025, while FILA brand revenue showed a mid-single-digit positive growth. Other brands saw a revenue increase of 35-40% [6][9]. - Despite short-term pressures on the main brand due to external factors such as a warm winter and the timing of the Spring Festival, the overall revenue for the year is expected to achieve double-digit growth. The company is expected to continue its "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy and increase investment in product development and sports resources [6][7]. - The report anticipates that the company will further consolidate its leading position in the sports footwear and apparel market, supported by the successful execution of its multi-brand strategy and ongoing reforms [6][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 70,826 million (up 13.58%) - 2025E: RMB 77,953 million (up 10.06%) - 2026E: RMB 85,110 million (up 9.18%) - 2027E: RMB 92,865 million (up 9.11%) [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2024: RMB 15,596 million (up 52.36%) - 2025E: RMB 13,021 million (down 16.51%) - 2026E: RMB 14,011 million (up 7.60%) - 2027E: RMB 15,495 million (up 10.59%) [5]. - The report also provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates, with 2026E EPS expected to be RMB 4.86 [5]. Brand Performance Summary - Anta's main brand faced challenges in Q4 2025, primarily due to high base effects and seasonal factors, but is expected to achieve positive growth in 2026 as e-commerce adjustments take effect [7]. - FILA brand is projected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by e-commerce and a focus on high-end positioning, with a healthy revenue growth forecast for 2026 [8]. - Other brands, particularly in the outdoor segment, are expected to maintain strong growth, with specific brands like Descente and KAILAS showing significant revenue increases [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 109.21 [1][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite short-term fluctuations, the company remains a leader in the industry. The main brand experienced a slight decline in revenue, while other brands, particularly FILA, showed positive growth. The overall strategy focuses on a multi-brand approach and global expansion, with expectations for continued double-digit growth in overall revenue [6][10]. Summary by Sections Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, the main brand's revenue saw a low single-digit negative growth, while FILA achieved a mid-single-digit positive growth. Other brands experienced a revenue increase of 35-40%. External factors such as a warm winter and the timing of the Spring Festival impacted the main brand's performance [6][7]. - The overall inventory turnover ratio remains healthy, and the company is expected to continue its multi-brand strategy, enhancing product development and sports resource acquisition [6][10]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 70,826 million - 2025E: RMB 77,953 million (+10.06%) - 2026E: RMB 85,110 million (+9.18%) - 2027E: RMB 92,865 million (+9.11%) [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be: - 2024: RMB 15,596 million - 2025E: RMB 13,021 million (-16.51%) - 2026E: RMB 14,011 million (+7.60%) - 2027E: RMB 15,495 million (+10.59%) [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the target price to HKD 109.2, reflecting a 20x PE for 2026E, down from a previous target of HKD 115.24. The adjusted target price corresponds to a PE of 23.2x for 2025E [10]. - Key valuation ratios include: - PE for 2026E: 14.87 - PB for 2026E: 2.52 - Dividend yield for 2026E: 3.46% [5][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The recent rapid increase in long - term interest rates in the US and Japan has dragged down the performance of global bond markets, stock markets, and some commodity markets. This reflects not only the warming of the fundamentals and the rise in inflation expectations but also the loss of fiscal discipline in developed countries, challenges to central bank independence, and concerns about long - term bond demand under the background of global order reconstruction, resulting in the "anchor loss" of long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates and a rapid steepening of the yield curve [2][24]. - In the context of continuous global fiscal expansion and monetary coordination, if the upward slope of inflation is limited, a relatively positive attitude can still be maintained towards stocks and commodities such as non - ferrous metals. However, it is advisable to turn to a wait - and - see approach in the short term, wait for adjustments, and then allocate at low prices. Moderately bet on the TACO trade or the fed put market [2][26]. - The impact of the rise in global long - term interest rates on the domestic bond market is small, and the comparison effect is very limited. A decline in risk appetite and RMB appreciation may even bring certain benefits. There are certain uncertainties in both the technology stocks and high - dividend sectors of the Hong Kong stock market [2][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions Assessment - **Domestic**: Last week's data showed that external demand remained high, prices rose, and domestic demand recovery was differentiated, with the production side maintaining resilience. High - frequency data indicated accelerated infrastructure investment. Consumption showed high travel enthusiasm but a year - on - year decline in automobile consumption. In the real estate market, transaction heat recovered from a low level, with second - hand housing showing stronger repair elasticity. External demand had high throughput year - on - year, and the production side was positively affected by the late Spring Festival. Industrial freight volume decline narrowed, and some industrial and construction indicators were stronger than seasonal levels. Prices of crude oil and black - series products rose [31]. - **Overseas**: Last week, US inflation and employment data were better than expected. The investigation of Powell intensified market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the selection of the Fed chairman became a short - term focus. Geopolitical tensions fluctuated, increasing risk - aversion sentiment. The US 12 - month core CPI growth rate was 0.2%, and the initial jobless claims were lower than expected [32]. Configuration Suggestions - **A - shares**: After the market showed a large trading volume last week, there were frequent signals to cool down the market. The Spring Festival market is not over yet, and a "technical correction" is needed. Investors are advised to maintain their positions but adjust their portfolio structures, avoid broad - based ETF heavy - position stocks, high - valuation speculative sectors, and overseas liquidity - sensitive varieties, and focus on the opportunity for high - performance stocks to make up for losses [28]. - **Domestic Bonds**: There are short - term favorable conditions, with the 30 - 10 - year Treasury yield spread approaching 50bp. The operation strategy is "band trading + equity exposure + coupon > leverage operation > variety selection > credit downgrade". Continue to earn coupons in the short term and bet on long - term bands. It is recommended to reduce the convertible bond position to a neutral level [27]. - **US Bonds**: The probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the Fed chairman has risen to 61%. His policy of "interest rate cut + balance - sheet reduction" may lead to a steeper yield curve and an upward risk of long - term yields. Pay attention to the final appointment of the Fed chairman and whether Powell will continue to serve as a director. The 10 - year US Treasury has broken through the key resistance level of 4.2%, and it is more likely to continue rising in the short term [29]. - **US Stocks**: The new round of trade frictions between the US and Europe has suppressed risk appetite. The US may enter a state of "macro - cold + micro - hot" in the short term. The market is slightly overcrowded, but if there is a significant adjustment, it can be regarded as an opportunity. Structurally, the trend of style re - balancing may continue [30]. - **Commodities**: Geopolitical tensions have increased the demand for precious metals as a safe - haven asset, but price volatility has increased after reaching new highs. It is recommended to follow the trend and set stop - loss levels. Copper may face short - term adjustment pressure, energy metals are relatively strong but volatile, and crude oil price volatility has increased. The sentiment of black - series commodities has weakened [30]. Follow - up Concerns - **Domestic**: The 19th Asian Financial Forum and the news conference of the Ministry of Commerce [6][47] - **Overseas**: The Davos Forum, the IEA's monthly crude oil market report, the European Central Bank's December monetary policy meeting minutes, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, US economic data such as the January S&P Global PMI preliminary value, and the eurozone's January consumer confidence index preliminary value [6][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.11 RMB [6][7]. Core Insights - The company, Longjing Environmental Protection, is a leader in China's air pollution control industry, benefiting from its partnership with Zijin Mining to become a comprehensive green energy service provider for mining [1][14]. - The "source-network-load-storage" and "mining-electricity linkage" strategies are expected to drive long-term growth, with significant contributions from clean energy projects and electric mining vehicles [1][2][15]. - The company has maintained over 9 billion RMB in new environmental orders annually since 2017, supported by the ongoing demand for ultra-low emissions in industries such as steel and cement [2][17]. Summary by Relevant Sections Environmental Business Growth - Longjing Environmental Protection has consistently added over 9 billion RMB in new environmental orders each year since 2017, benefiting from the domestic coal power market and the push for ultra-low emissions in various industries [2][17]. - The company achieved revenue of 78.58 billion RMB in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting an 18.09% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 7.80 billion RMB, up 20.53% year-on-year [17]. Clean Energy Projects - By 2025, the company is expected to have over 3 GW of installed capacity in clean energy projects, with significant value in projects like Lagocuo and the Congo Kinshasa hydropower station, estimated at 9.3 billion RMB [3][15]. - The clean energy projects are positioned to replace fossil fuels, with Zijin Mining's energy consumption in 2024 projected at 19.6 billion kWh, where fossil fuels account for nearly 50% [3][15]. Electric Mining Vehicles - The company has developed a closed-loop business model integrating "green electricity-storage-electric mining vehicles," with the first electric mining vehicle delivered, reducing transportation costs significantly compared to fossil fuel vehicles [4][15]. - The cost per ton-kilometer for electric mining vehicles is approximately 0.177 RMB, only 26% of the cost for fossil fuel vehicles [15]. Strategic Partnerships and Future Growth - Zijin Mining's increasing stake in Longjing Environmental Protection, potentially reaching 33.76% after a planned capital increase of up to 2 billion RMB, reflects confidence in the company's growth trajectory [29][30]. - The dual empowerment strategy between Longjing and Zijin is expected to leverage synergies in the green energy sector, aligning with Zijin's carbon neutrality goals for 2029 and 2050 [14][31].

证券研究报告 小菜园 (999 HK) 港股通 强化性价比优势拥抱高质量增长 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国香港 餐饮 | 华泰研究 | 更新报告 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国香港 | 餐饮 | 目标价(港币): | 11.41 | | 2025 年餐饮行业整体表现受到外卖补贴节奏扰动较明显，中低客单价大众 | | 樊俊豪 | 研究员 | | 日常品类在较大幅度补贴下性价比优势显著放大、阶段性需求表现占优。回 | | SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 | fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 | SFC No. BDO986 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 洪洋* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070021 hongyang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 1 月 20 日) | 8.81 | | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.11 RMB [6][7]. Core Insights - The company, Longjing Environmental Protection, is a leader in China's air pollution control industry, benefiting from its partnership with Zijin Mining to become a comprehensive green energy service provider for mining [1][14]. - The "source-network-load-storage" and "mining-electricity linkage" strategies are expected to drive long-term growth, with significant contributions from clean energy projects and electric mining vehicles [1][2][15]. - The company has maintained over 9 billion RMB in new environmental orders annually since 2017, supported by the ongoing demand for ultra-low emissions in industries such as steel and cement [2][17]. Summary by Relevant Sections Business Growth and Strategy - Longjing Environmental Protection has a robust growth trajectory, with a clean energy project capacity exceeding 3 GW by 2025, and significant project values from various hydroelectric stations [3][15]. - The company is positioned to benefit from Zijin Mining's dual-carbon strategy, aiming for peak carbon emissions by 2029 and carbon neutrality by 2050, enhancing its role as a green energy service provider [14][31]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.21 billion RMB, 1.58 billion RMB, and 1.97 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.96, 1.24, and 1.55 RMB [6][10]. - The revenue for 2025 is expected to reach 11.66 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 16.36% compared to the previous year [10][12]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a unique business model integrating "green electricity-storage-electric mining vehicles," which is expected to create a closed-loop business ecosystem [4][15]. - The electric mining vehicles provided by Longjing have significantly lower operational costs compared to traditional fossil fuel vehicles, enhancing their competitive edge in the market [4][15]. Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential for clean energy and electric mining vehicles to open up substantial growth opportunities for Longjing Environmental Protection, supported by favorable market conditions and strategic partnerships [1][15][16]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas projects and enhancing its technological capabilities in areas such as carbon capture and mining machinery [5][16].

证券研究报告 小菜园 (999 HK) 港股通 强化性价比优势拥抱高质量增长 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国香港 餐饮 | 华泰研究 | 更新报告 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 1 月 21 日│中国香港 | 餐饮 | 目标价(港币): | 11.41 | | 2025 年餐饮行业整体表现受到外卖补贴节奏扰动较明显，中低客单价大众 | | 樊俊豪 | 研究员 | | 日常品类在较大幅度补贴下性价比优势显著放大、阶段性需求表现占优。回 | | SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 | fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 | SFC No. BDO986 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 洪洋* 联系人 SAC No. S0570125070021 hongyang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 1 月 20 日) | 8.81 | | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility sector and the power generation sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report argues that the core logic determining the valuation of power stocks has changed in the new energy era, with expectations of a rebound in electricity prices and stock valuations as coal prices stabilize [4][6]. - It highlights that the most challenging phase for electricity supply and demand in China has passed, with expectations of a recovery in demand starting in 2026 [4][7]. - The report emphasizes that the valuation gap between U.S. and Chinese power stocks has widened significantly, with U.S. power stocks trading at 2-4 times the price-to-book (PB) ratio of their Chinese counterparts [4][6][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several undervalued power operators, including Huaneng International, Guodian Power, and China Power [3][8]. - It suggests that the capacity price increase in 2026 will benefit thermal power, while the stabilization of energy prices will favor nuclear, green, and hydropower [8]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that both China and the U.S. are experiencing similar electricity shortages due to a slowdown in the growth of base-load power sources, with structural demand exceeding expectations potentially leading to supply crises [5][26]. - It discusses the significant differences in electricity pricing structures between the two countries, with U.S. electricity prices being significantly higher due to various systemic costs [56][58]. Price Trends and Projections - The report predicts that by 2026, the industrial electricity prices in China will be significantly lower than those in the U.S., enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [6][11]. - It highlights that the electricity price gap between the two countries is expected to continue to widen, benefiting China's manufacturing sector [6][8]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The report indicates that the most severe supply-demand imbalance in China has passed, with expectations of a recovery in electricity demand driven by increased manufacturing investment [7][8]. - It also notes that the U.S. is facing a similar situation, with a projected decline in gas-fired electricity generation and a potential increase in coal-fired generation [5][30].

证券研究报告 索尼 (6758 JP) 剥离电视机业务，加速创意娱乐转型 2026 年 1 月 20 日│日本 消费电子 2026 年 1 月 20 日，索尼宣布与 TCL 电子（1070 HK）签署谅解备忘录， 双方拟在家庭娱乐领域建立战略合作伙伴关系。双方计划成立一家合资公 司，其中 TCL 持股 51%，索尼持股 49%。新公司将承接索尼的家庭娱乐业 务（包括电视和家庭音频设备等），涵盖从产品开发、设计、制造到销售、 物流及服务的全流程。新公司将继续在全球使用"索尼"及"BRAVIA"品 牌，结合索尼在画质音质技术与品牌运营上的深厚积累，以及 TCL 在显示 技术、全球工业布局及端到端成本效率上的优势，全面负责从研发、制造到 销售服务的全产业链运营。双方计划于 2026 年 3 月底前签署最终协议，并 预计于 2027 年 4 月正式启动业务。我们认为：1）合资公司成立后，索尼 或保留品牌溢价，借力 TCL 供应链有望实现降本增效；2）此次交易符合索 尼近年来持续剥离非核心业务的策略，有望聚焦高增长、高壁垒业务，加快 创意娱乐转型。维持目标价 5,400 日元，维持"买入"评级。 保留品牌溢价，或借力 ...