Group 1: Fixed Income Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the implementation of a rural resident income increase plan, aiming to enhance the proportion of resident income in national income distribution and labor remuneration in primary distribution [2] - Concerns about a potential AI bubble are present, but the credit risk in AI investments is primarily limited to a few new cloud vendors, with low probabilities of substantial defaults among leading tech companies [2][3] - The investment return rates for data centers are currently high due to a supply-demand imbalance in computing power, but the sustainability of these investments depends on the application side generating revenues that significantly exceed capital expenditures [2][3] Group 2: Economic Policy and Industry Trends - Recent information from the Central Economic Work Conference indicates a focus on high-quality growth, with policies leaning towards supply-side measures and an emphasis on service consumption [3] - The mining service and equipment sector is expected to transition towards mining development, driven by high metal prices and the need for external support from smaller mining owners who face financial and technical constraints [4] - Beijing has initiated a new round of real estate policy optimization, which is expected to stabilize the market and potentially influence other cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen to follow suit [5] Group 3: Energy and Chemical Sector - The PX market is anticipated to experience upward momentum due to a pause in domestic capacity growth and increasing PTA demand, with significant price differentials observed [6] - The natural gas sector is expected to benefit from a decline in costs, with stable pricing expected for industrial and commercial sales, leading to growth in profitability and dividends for gas companies [12][13] Group 4: AI Investment and Gaming Industry - AI investment is viewed as a core driver of global economic growth, with current discussions highlighting the need to focus on the rhythm and structure of investments rather than total investment levels [10] - The Chinese gaming industry's overseas revenue is projected to grow from $11.6 billion in 2019 to $18.56 billion by 2024, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 9.1% [10]

证券研究报告 固收 三个视角看美国 AI 投资 华泰研究 张继强 研究员 2025 年 12 月 24 日│中国内地 资产配置周报 核心观点 近期 AI 局部泡沫担忧仍在不时扰动市场，核心矛盾还是在投资端。我们尝 试从三个角度审视 AI 投资的可持续性。从违约风险角度看，目前 AI 信用风 险担忧仅存在于少数几家新云厂商，发生实质违约的概率偏低，头部科技企 业经营稳健，整体行业的投资仍在加速推进。从回报率看，在当前算力供不 应求的环境下，单个数据中心的投资回报率较高，核心痛点仍在应用端能否 创造数倍于资本开支的收入，以保证投资的可持续性。从宏观环境看，美国 私人部门杠杆率健康，流动性总体宽松，信用环境逐步修复，不具备刺破泡 沫的宏观基础。对投资而言，AI 科技叙事仍在强化，上游工业商品、电力 设备、硬件等具备高胜率，下游应用端潜在赔率更高。不过由于供给端落地 节奏与需求端商业化的诸多不确定性，可能会伴随预期与估值的反复波动。 核心主题：三个视角看美国 AI 投资 当前 AI 的核心矛盾还是在投资端。如果 AI 投资难以为继，市场将重新评估 美国经济，科技巨头的高估值自然也无法持续，新模型和应用侧的进展也自 然 ...

从 GDP 分项来看，居民消费延续修复，剔除库存后的私人投资边际放缓， 政府投资与消费明显回升。具体来看， 证券研究报告 宏观 美国三季度 GDP 折年增速反弹至 4.3% 2025 年 12 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 2025 年三季度美国 GDP 增长大幅超预期回升至 4.3%，衡量潜在动能的私 人消费+投资增速上升至 3%。2025 年三季度 GDP 季环比折年增速从今年 二季度的 3.8%进一步上行至 4.3%，高于彭博一致预期的 3.3%，同比增速 上行 0.2pp 至 2.3%。从分项上看，关税对存货和净出口的扰动仍然存在， 剔除上述扰动项后，衡量经济潜在动能的"私人消费+投资"增速由 2.9% 边际加速至 3.0%。三季度 GDP 超预期导致联储 2026 年降息预期有所回撤： 截至北京时间 23 点 20 分，相较数据公布前，联储 26 年降息预期回撤 4bp 至 54bp，美元指数微涨 0.1%至 98.1，2y、10y 美债收益率分别上行 5bp、 3bp 至 3.54%、4.18%，标普 500 期货先跌后涨，上涨 0.1%。 1）居民消费增速由 2.5%加速至 3.5%，对 G ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" with a target price of RMB 43.90 [2] Core Insights - The company is advancing its second phase of the commercial aerospace project, investing approximately RMB 300 million to enhance production capacity for various specialty gases, including green hydrogen and krypton, to meet the growing demands of the launch site and satellite industry [6][7] - The first phase of the project has been completed, with successful applications of core products in multiple rocket launches, demonstrating the company's technical capabilities and cost advantages [8][9] - The company is expanding its market presence by establishing partnerships with key aerospace bases across China, which will help mitigate risks associated with single projects and capitalize on the increasing demand for commercial satellite launches [9] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: RMB 22,047 million (2024), RMB 21,877 million (2025E), RMB 23,029 million (2026E), and RMB 24,504 million (2027E), with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% expected for net profit [5][10] - The report anticipates net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 1,684 million (2024), RMB 1,553 million (2025E), RMB 1,790 million (2026E), and RMB 2,051 million (2027E) [5][10] - The target price has been adjusted to RMB 43.90 based on a 17x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the growth potential from the second phase expansion and multi-base collaborations [10]

证券研究报告 滔搏 (6110 HK) 港股通 滔搏公布 FY26 年第三季度运营表现：公司零售及批发业务总销售额同比高 单位数下跌，零售业务表现优于批发业务，整体终端需求仍处于弱复苏区间； 期间直营门店毛销售面积较 1HFY26 -1.3%，同比-13.4%，净关店数量环比 收窄，公司继续推进门店网络优化、谨慎开闭店策略。当前零售环境弱复苏， 市场仍处于促销氛围，但我们看好短期 NIKE 大中华区在专业运动新品、体 育营销、全域一体化经营下的零售反转，有望带动盈利能力改善，同时多品 牌布局持续发力，有望从传统零售运营向品牌管理转型，打开长期增长空间， 维持"买入"评级。 线上与线下渠道表现分化收窄，库存下降但折扣同比加深 1）流水：第三季度零售业务同比表现略弱于上半财年，主因终端消费处于 弱复苏阶段。分渠道看，受去年同期低基数影响，线下及线上渠道同比表现 分化收窄，第三季度线下/线上的同比表现较上半财年略有改善/放缓。2）经 营：线上销售占比提升，带动整体折扣率同比加深，但受益于线上线下分化 收窄，折扣加深幅度较上半财年有所改善；我们预计在期内电商大促及库存 管控节奏下，期末库存同比有所下降且周转效率保持良 ...

证券研究报告 华联控股 (000036 CH) 拟收购南美"锂三角"最大未开发盐 湖，第二曲线继续迈进 | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 12 月 | 23 日│中国内地 | 房地产开发 | 目标价(人民币): | 5.15 | 12 月 22 日，公司发布公告，拟以 1.75 亿美元受让境外公司智利锂业及其 CEO 所持有的 Argentum 公司的 100%股份，从而获得阿里扎罗锂矿项目 80%的权益。同日，公司与交易对方已签署《股份购买协议》。本次收购为 公司首次获取大型海外盐湖资源，标志其新能源业务转型由前期布局阶段迈 入实质推进阶段，公司第二增长曲线的确定性显著提升。维持"增持"评级。 拟收购阿根廷锂盐湖矿，公司切入产业上游核心资源端 阿里扎罗项目位于阿根廷萨尔塔省 Arizaro 盐湖区，后者为南美洲"锂三角" 最大的未开发盐湖。阿里扎罗项目包含 Arizaro 锂盐湖 6 个采矿权，总面积 约 205 平方公里。根据第三方专业机构出具的预可行性研究报告，阿里扎 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Giant Network, Xindong Company, and Kyeing Network, among others [10]. Core Insights - The Chinese gaming industry is experiencing robust growth in overseas markets, with self-developed game revenues increasing by 5.6% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, projected to rise from $11.6 billion in 2019 to $18.56 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 9.1% [1][20]. - The global gaming market is shifting from a traffic-driven model to one focused on structural innovation, marking the entry of Chinese gaming companies into a "high-quality growth era" [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and technological empowerment in driving overseas growth, with the gaming sector becoming a core vehicle for cultural export [2][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Growth Dynamics - The overseas revenue of self-developed games from China is expected to grow significantly, with mobile games maintaining a dominant share of around 90% since 2021 [20][25]. - Emerging markets like Southeast Asia and the Middle East show strong user engagement and growth potential, while mature markets like Europe and North America are focusing on premium content and localized operations [1][29]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by large companies like Tencent and NetEase leveraging global strategies and stable revenue from evergreen products, while mid-sized firms like Didi Interactive and Lemon Microfun are successfully carving out niches through focused strategies [4][18]. - The report highlights the success of SLG (Simulation and Strategy Games) genres, which accounted for 43.3% of overseas revenue in the first half of 2025, alongside the emergence of innovative gameplay that combines different genres [3][17]. Investment Opportunities - Future opportunities in the overseas market are identified in regional expansion and the evolution of gameplay and genres, with a recommendation for companies like Giant Network and Xindong Company [6][10]. - The report suggests that the market is not saturated, as there remains potential for growth in both mature and emerging markets through premium content and localized strategies [5][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.82 [1][5][11] Core Insights - The company has successfully licensed its SIM0613 (LRRC15 ADC) to France's Ipsen for an upfront payment of USD 45 million and a total deal value of USD 1.06 billion, marking the third licensing deal in 2025 and indicating the company's innovative drug pipeline is entering a monetization phase [1][2] - The SIM0613 ADC platform shows significant potential, with advantages demonstrated in preclinical models and no direct competitors in clinical stages, positioning it as a potential first-in-class (FIC) product globally [2][3] - The company is accelerating its global pipeline expansion, with multiple products and technology platforms poised for overseas exploration, including promising candidates in autoimmune and oncology fields [3][4] Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at RMB 1.18 billion, RMB 1.40 billion, and RMB 1.52 billion respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2025 to 2027 [5][11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are RMB 0.45, RMB 0.54, and RMB 0.59, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected to be 33.19x for 2026 [5][11][12]

今日早参 2025 年 12 月 23 日 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程首席研究 员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 今日热点 金工：2025 年外资买入哪些中国资产 ETF 截至 2025 年 12 月 20 日，2025 年以来全球投资于中国资产的 ETF 累计获 得 831 亿美元的资金净流入。其中，境内 ETF 累计获资金流入 786 亿美 元，境外 ETF 则累计净流入约 45 亿美元。从总体数值来看，外资买入中国 资产占比较小；然而，就内部分化情况来看，2025 年以来外资对境内资产 的配置存在显著倾向性：就行业分布来看，科技板块获外资流入最多，达 95 亿美元，主要来自美国和欧洲地区；就具体产品而言，外资流入排名前 10 的 ETF 中有六只为科技 ETF，排名前 3 的 iShares 中国科技 UCITS ETF、 Invesco 中国科技 ETF 和 KraneShares CSI 中国互联网 ETF 获资金净流入 均超过 20 亿美元。 风险提示：本报告不涉及证券投资基金评价，不涉及对具体基金产品的投资 建议，亦不涉及对具体个股的投资建议；投资者需 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xindong Company, Shenzhou Taiyue, Kaiying Network, and Jibite, while Perfect World is rated as "Hold" [8][9]. Core Insights - The gaming industry in China is expected to achieve a sales revenue of 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.68%, driven by an increase in user ARPU [1]. - Mobile games are projected to generate 257.08 billion yuan in revenue, up 7.92% year-on-year, while client games are expected to see a significant recovery with a revenue of 78.16 billion yuan, marking a 14.97% increase [1]. - Mini-games and console games are highlighted as the biggest growth areas, with mini-games expected to reach 53.54 billion yuan, a 34.39% increase, and console games projected at 8.36 billion yuan, an 86.33% increase [2]. - The overseas market for self-developed games is anticipated to reach 20.46 billion USD, growing by 10.23%, with strategy games dominating the revenue share [3]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - The gaming market is experiencing steady growth, supported by long-term operations and innovative new products [1]. - The user base is expected to exceed 683 million, with a growth of 1.35% year-on-year [1]. Mini-games and Console Games - Mini-games are benefiting from lightweight features and social media platforms, significantly lowering customer acquisition costs [2]. - Console games are seeing a surge due to hardware upgrades and popular titles driving sales [2]. Overseas Market - The overseas revenue for self-developed mobile games is projected to be 18.48 billion USD, with a growth rate of 13.16% [3]. - The North American, Japanese, and Korean markets contribute 57.81% of the overseas revenue, indicating a high market concentration [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with long-term operations and strong overseas strategy game capabilities, such as Giant Network [4]. - New product cycles and companies transitioning to platform-based business models are also recommended for investment [4].