中金有色 | 钨的新时代之一：钨价中枢有望系统性上行，中国钨业龙头配置价值凸显

Core Viewpoint - The global tungsten supply-demand situation is expected to remain tight in the long term, with tungsten prices likely to experience systematic upward movement. The investment value of leading Chinese tungsten companies is expected to gradually emerge due to three major trends: the rise in tungsten price levels, accelerated resource injection and development by Chinese tungsten companies, and the high-end capacity expansion in downstream industries [2]. Supply Side - The global tungsten supply is characterized by strong scarcity and high concentration. In 2023, China's tungsten reserves and production accounted for 52% and 81% of the global total, respectively, significantly influencing global tungsten supply. Due to rapid consumption of tungsten resources, China's tungsten reserve-to-production ratio is notably lower than the global average, facing pressures from aging mines and declining grades [2][6]. - Global tungsten supply is projected to increase from 78,000 tons in 2023 to 86,300 tons by 2027, corresponding to a CAGR of +2.6% [2]. Demand Side - Domestic demand is benefiting from the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, as well as emerging demands from sectors such as new energy, aerospace, and 3C electronics. Global demand is expected to accelerate due to the restructuring of the global industrial chain. Global tungsten consumption is anticipated to grow from 90,800 tons in 2023 to 104,500 tons by 2027, with a CAGR of +3.6% [3]. - The consumption of tungsten in photovoltaic wires is expected to surge from 794 tons to 5,025 tons, achieving a remarkable CAGR of +59% [3]. Resource Injection and Development - Chinese tungsten companies are accelerating the injection and development of tungsten resources, which is expected to enhance raw material self-sufficiency and significantly increase profitability. The proposed resource injection plan for the Shizhu Garden tungsten mine by Zhongtung High-tech is a representative example [4]. - Industry leaders are increasing their capacity layout in tungsten powder, hard alloy tools, and photovoltaic tungsten wires, transitioning product structures towards high-end applications [4]. Policy and Environmental Constraints - China's tungsten supply faces constraints from over-exploitation of resources and increasingly stringent environmental policies. The reserve-to-production ratio for tungsten in China has decreased from 46 years in 1995 to 37 years in 2023, indicating significant resource depletion [7][9]. - The Chinese government has implemented total production control measures for tungsten mining since 1991, with ongoing restrictions on new mining rights and a focus on environmental impact assessments [12][13]. International Development - The development progress of overseas tungsten mines is generally slow, with significant projects in South Korea, the UK, and Canada facing delays due to permitting and financing issues. For instance, the Sangdong mine in South Korea has seen its timeline pushed back by about a year [17][19]. - Despite the higher reserve-to-production ratios of overseas tungsten resources, the uncertainty in development timelines poses challenges for future supply increments [19][20].