CSEC,China Shenhua(SH:601088) 智通财经网·2025-03-24 06:22Core Viewpoint - The coal market is currently stabilizing, with a potential recovery in coal prices expected as supply increases and demand decreases, particularly in the context of China Shenhua's (601088.SH) increased dividend payout for 2024 [1] Coal Market Overview - As of March 21, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal is 671 RMB/ton, down 10 RMB/ton week-on-week, indicating a significant drop in production prices [2] - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 82.6%, up 0.7 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The methanol and urea operating rates are slightly down but remain historically high, with methanol at 85.3% (down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week) and urea at 87.1% (down 0.7 percentage points week-on-week) [2] Coking Coal Insights - As of March 21, the price of premium coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1380 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week, while prices in Shanxi have dropped significantly [3] - The operating rate of coking plants with capacities over 2 million tons is 76.4%, up 2.7 percentage points week-on-week [3] - The current energy transition and strict policies on capacity control are expected to keep coal in a favorable position, despite challenges in supply and production [3] Profitability and Cash Flow - Despite macroeconomic pressures and increased competition from renewable energy, coal prices are expected to remain high, supporting sustained profitability for coal companies [4] Investment Opportunities - Companies with strong resource endowments and stable performance, such as China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH), are recommended for investment due to their high dividend ratios [5] - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration, like Xinji Energy (601918.SH) and Shaanxi Energy (001286.SZ), are also highlighted for their ability to mitigate cyclical fluctuations [5] - Firms with production growth potential and sensitivity to coal price changes, such as Shanxi Coal International (600546.SH) and Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH), are suggested for investment [5] - Companies with globally scarce resources, like Huabei Mining (600985.SH) and Pingmei Shenma Energy (601666.SH), are also recommended due to their long-term supply constraints [5]