益生股份(002458)：Q4商品代苗涨价 收入盈利双双高增

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 3.136 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 504 million yuan, down 6.84% year-on-year. However, Q4 showed significant growth with a revenue of 982 million yuan, up 73% year-on-year and 26% quarter-on-quarter, driven by rising prices of commodity broiler chicks, marking a turnaround after three consecutive quarters of decline [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 586 million white feather broiler chicks, a decrease of 9% year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in production pace based on market conditions [2]. - The average price of commodity broiler chicks was approximately 3.45 yuan per chick, showing a slight year-on-year decline, but the company benefited from lower feed raw material prices and cost reduction efforts, leading to an estimated profit contribution of about 3.5 billion yuan [2]. - In Q4, the company sold 155 million white feather broiler chicks, an increase of 9% year-on-year and 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, with an average price of approximately 4.79 yuan per chick, up 62% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Group 2: Shareholder Returns and Market Outlook - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 218 million yuan for 2024, with total cash dividends and buyback amounts reaching 337 million yuan, accounting for 67% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3]. - The white feather chicken product prices have been low for an extended period, but there are signs of recovery, which could positively impact the entire white feather chicken industry chain if macro consumption continues to improve [3]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and introduces a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 553 million yuan, 482 million yuan, and 802 million yuan respectively [4]. - The company is assigned a target price of 11.05 yuan based on a 22x PE for 2025, reflecting its competitive advantages and expected capacity release in the commodity segment [4].