Huaan Securities(SH:600909) 智通财经网·2025-04-07 02:47Core Insights - The impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) from the US and New Zealand is expected to continue into 2025, with zero import of breeding stock from these countries since December 2024, leading to potential supply shortages in the domestic market [1][4] - The parent stock chick sales remain high, but the meat chicken industry chain prices have been relatively weak since 2025 [2][3] Group 1: Industry Overview - As of March 2025, the stock of breeding chickens is at a record high since 2019, with 1.3586 million breeding stock and 22.8669 million parent stock [1] - Parent stock chick sales in 2024 reached 75.2214 million sets, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1] - The average price of parent stock chicks in January and February 2025 was 53.63 CNY/set and 46.5 CNY/set, showing significant year-on-year growth of 43.4% and 32.1% respectively [2] Group 2: Price Trends - The prices of commodity chicks have shown a downward trend, with averages of 2.06 CNY/bird and 1.84 CNY/bird in January and February 2025, reflecting year-on-year declines of 23.2% and 58.7% [2] - White feather chicken prices were recorded at 7.41 CNY/kg, 6.05 CNY/kg, and 7.13 CNY/kg from January to March 2025, marking the lowest levels since 2018 [2] Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The total breeding stock update in 2024 was 1.5007 million sets, the highest since 2014, but the update volume dropped significantly in early 2025 due to HPAI impacts [3][4] - The overseas breeding stock update is expected to decline significantly in 2025 due to ongoing outbreaks of HPAI in the US and New Zealand, which have halted imports [4]