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陕西煤业(601225):业绩超预期叠加分红比例提升 配置价值显著

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 and Q1 2025 performance, showing stable revenue despite a decline in net profit, primarily due to coal price drops and effective cost management [1][2][3]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 184.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with a net profit of 22.36 billion yuan, down 3.2% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 48.71 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% in net profit [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 40.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, with a net profit of 4.80 billion yuan, down 1.2% [2]. Coal Business Performance - The coal business generated revenue of 162.67 billion yuan in 2024, up 3.0% year-on-year, but gross profit fell by 11.0% to 55.75 billion yuan [3]. - Coal production and sales increased, with 2024 raw coal production and sales reaching 170 million tons and 260 million tons, respectively, up 4.1% and 9.1% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 629 yuan per ton, down 5.6%, while the cost per ton increased by 2.8% to 414 yuan [3]. Power Business Contribution - The company completed the acquisition of Shaanxi Coal Power in December 2024, contributing 16.2 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year [4]. - The power business had a gross profit of 2.3 billion yuan, accounting for 3.8% of total gross profit, with a sales volume of 35.1 billion kWh, up 4.4% year-on-year [4]. Dividend Policy and Forecast - The total profit distribution for 2024 was 13.07 billion yuan, representing 65% of the distributable profit, with a cash dividend ratio of 60% [4]. - The company forecasts net profits of 18.70 billion, 19.67 billion, and 20.82 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.93, 2.03, and 2.15 yuan per share [5].