SHCI(SH:601225) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-04-29 02:35Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024 but a decline in net profit, with expectations for stable coal prices supporting long-term profitability and cash flow [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 184.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.21% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 40.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.30%, and net profit of 4.805 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.23% [1]. Coal and Power Business - The company increased its raw coal production to 170 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, and sales volume reached 258 million tons, up 9.13% [3]. - The average cost of raw selected coal was 289.92 yuan per ton, down 2.25% year-on-year, driven by reductions in material costs, maintenance, and taxes [3]. - The company has a total approved capacity of 162 million tons, with an increase in annual capacity at the Yuandatan coal mine from 8 million tons to 10 million tons [3]. - The company controls 8,300 MW of operational thermal power capacity and has 11,320 MW under construction, with expected growth in operational capacity from 10,300 MW in 2025 to 16,300 MW by 2027 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 21.15 billion yuan and 21.90 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 17% and 20% from previous estimates [4]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 2.18, 2.26, and 2.29 yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.4%, +3.6%, and +1.4% [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of around 60% from 2021 to 2024, with a target price adjustment to 28.36 yuan based on a 13x PE valuation for 2025 [4].