温氏股份(300498)：负债率持续改善 25Q1盈利略超预期

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown improved profitability in Q1 2025, driven by lower feed prices and enhanced production efficiency, leading to a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio to 51% [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 104.9 billion yuan (up 17% year-on-year) and a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan (turning from loss to profit) [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 29.5 billion yuan (up 17% year-on-year) and a net profit of 2.82 billion yuan (turning from loss to profit) [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 24.3 billion yuan (up 11% year-on-year) and a net profit of 2.0 billion yuan (turning from loss to profit) [2]. Segment Performance - In the pig farming segment for 2024, the company sold 30.18 million pigs (up 15% year-on-year) with estimated costs of 14.0-14.5 yuan/kg, achieving a profit of 280-330 yuan per pig [1]. - In the chicken farming segment for 2024, the company sold 1.21 billion chickens (up 2.1% year-on-year) with estimated costs of 12.0-12.5 yuan/kg, achieving a profit of 1.5-2.0 yuan per chicken [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company sold 8.59 million pigs (up 20% year-on-year), with estimated costs of 12.5-13.0 yuan/kg, achieving a profit of 270-320 yuan per pig [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company sold 282 million chickens (up 5.4% year-on-year), with estimated costs of 11.0-11.5 yuan/kg, incurring a loss of 0.8-1.3 yuan per chicken [2]. Cash Flow and Debt Management - The company experienced improved cash flow, with net operating cash inflows of 6.8 billion yuan in Q4 2024 and 3.82 billion yuan in Q1 2025, contributing to a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio to 51% [3]. - The breeding stock of sows increased to approximately 1.74 million by the end of 2024, up 12% year-on-year, supporting stable production growth [3]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "strong buy" investment rating, with expected net profits of 9.16 billion yuan, 11.3 billion yuan, and 13.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12X, 10X, and 8.6X respectively [3].