LBX(SH:603883) Xin Lang Zheng Quan·2025-05-22 07:15Core Viewpoint - The chain pharmacy industry is undergoing unprecedented changes, marked by a significant reduction in store openings and a decline in profitability, as exemplified by the major player, Lao Bai Xing, which has announced a share reduction plan amid industry turmoil [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Changes - The announcement of a 3% share reduction by Lao Bai Xing's controlling shareholder has raised concerns about the industry's future, interpreted as a sign of lack of confidence amid severe market fluctuations [1]. - In 2024, the number of closed pharmacies nationwide is projected to reach 39,000, with a closure rate of 5.7%, marking a historical peak in the fourth quarter with 14,000 closures [1]. - Six major chain pharmacies are experiencing a collective slowdown in revenue growth, with the highest increase at only 8.01%, while Lao Bai Xing is the only company reporting a revenue decline [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Lao Bai Xing's net profit for 2024 has plummeted by 44.13%, with a 41.18% drop in net profit excluding non-recurring items, and cash flow has shrunk by 25.77% [1]. - The company has opened 211 new stores while closing 236, resulting in a net decrease for the first time [2]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategies - New stores are described as "profit black holes," with long cultivation periods of 3-5 years and ongoing costs eroding profits, compounded by goodwill impairment losses [2]. - The tightening of medical insurance policies has intensified survival pressures, with many regions halting the approval of new insurance-designated pharmacies, leading to fierce competition for existing resources [2]. - Despite 93% of Lao Bai Xing's direct stores having medical insurance qualifications, the potential for growth in this area is nearly exhausted [2]. Group 4: Transformation and Future Outlook - Lao Bai Xing's transformation strategy includes a "light asset" franchise model, aiming to open 1,000 new stores by 2025, with over 80% being franchise stores to mitigate risks associated with direct expansion [3]. - The company is focusing on county-level markets and has established 176 DTP pharmacies to fill service gaps in specialty medications [3]. - The industry is shifting from rapid growth to refined operations, with future competition focusing on three key capabilities: operational efficiency of existing medical insurance stores, specialized service capabilities, and cost control systems [4]. Group 5: Conclusion - The current phase in the chain pharmacy industry is characterized by a "survival of the fittest" mentality, where only companies with refined operational capabilities are likely to endure and thrive in the upcoming cycles [6].