Core Insights - The ongoing Middle East conflict has not disrupted oil production, and shipping through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz remains unaffected, indicating a potential easing of hostilities between Iran and Israel, which has led to a decrease in oil prices [1][2][3] - The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a decline of 1.66%, while Brent crude oil dropped by $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, down 1.35% [1] - Iran's willingness to return to nuclear negotiations, contingent on the U.S. refraining from attacks, has alleviated market fears of a prolonged conflict, resulting in a reduction of geopolitical risk premiums [2][3] Market Dynamics - The market sentiment has shifted towards a supply-demand driven pricing model, with expectations that oil prices are unlikely to exceed $80 per barrel, as Western oil companies predict a return to pre-conflict price levels [3][4] - The Trump administration aims to keep oil prices around $50 per barrel to prevent inflation and maintain economic stability, which influences the geopolitical landscape and oil price dynamics [3][4] - A potential oversupply in the oil market is anticipated by the second half of 2025, further exerting downward pressure on prices, especially in light of Iran's signals to resume nuclear talks [4][5] Strategic Implications - The interplay between geopolitical risks and actual supply-demand fundamentals is critical, with current oil price fluctuations reflecting a volatile emotional response rather than structural changes [4][5] - The future trajectory of oil prices will depend on the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and the Trump administration's strategies to balance inflation control with energy market stability [4][5]
邓正红能源软实力：长期冲突担忧缓解 国际油价回落 短期原油市场情绪波动剧烈
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-17 03:33