全球棉花预计增产，棉纺业加速洗牌

Group 1 - The global cotton market is entering a new production cycle, with major cotton-producing countries like China, Brazil, and Australia expected to increase their output [1] - China's cotton planting area is projected to reach 44.823 million acres by 2025, with Xinjiang's area growing by 3.3% year-on-year, benefiting from favorable weather conditions [1] - Domestic cotton market shows a nuanced situation, with import tariffs closing the import window, leading some companies to use domestic cotton, resulting in a reduction of cotton inventory and a tightening of high-grade cotton supply [1] Group 2 - Concerns about future cotton prices persist, with the market characterized by "large supply, stable consumption, strong support, and weak driving forces," leading to expectations of price fluctuations [2] - The new cotton basis and purchase prices are expected to be lower than in 2024, with long-term high basis levels likely unsustainable due to a global supply exceeding demand [2] Group 3 - The cotton textile industry is facing renewed pressure due to declining cotton prices and insufficient terminal demand, leading to a drop in average profit margins and effective demand [4] - Revenue and profit in the industry have fallen to their lowest levels in over a decade, with revenues for 2023-2024 projected to shrink to below one trillion yuan and total profits at only 21.7 billion yuan [4] - The operating profit margin has decreased from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in the first four months of 2025, with the loss ratio expanding to 28.1%, marking a historical high [4]