管涛：谁是美国股债汇“三杀”的外资推手？︱汇海观涛

Core Viewpoint - The attractiveness of dollar assets to Japanese investors has significantly declined, despite Japan not participating in the "sell-off" of U.S. assets [1][10]. Group 1: Capital Flow Reversal - In April, the U.S. experienced a reversal in capital flow, shifting from a net inflow of $253.1 billion in March to a net outflow of $14.2 billion [2]. - Foreign investors sold a net $57.1 billion in U.S. securities in April, compared to a net purchase of $274.3 billion in March, with long-term securities accounting for $50.6 billion of the sales [2][4]. - U.S. investors sold a net $42.8 billion in foreign securities, marking the end of five consecutive months of net purchases [3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Official foreign investors sold a net $17.3 billion in U.S. securities, while private foreign investors continued to net buy, albeit at a significantly reduced amount [4][6]. - The primary driver of the capital flow reversal was the substantial decrease in net purchases by private foreign investors [4][6]. - The main focus of foreign selling was U.S. long-term securities, particularly medium- and long-term government bonds, which saw a net sale of $40.8 billion [4][11]. Group 3: Country-Specific Selling Patterns - Canada was the largest seller of U.S. long-term securities in April, with a net sale of $80.8 billion, significantly higher than other countries [7][8]. - China and Mexico also contributed to the selling, with net sales of $23.9 billion and $13.4 billion, respectively [9][10]. - The U.K. and Japan were notable buyers of U.S. long-term securities, with the U.K. purchasing $67.6 billion, indicating a contrasting trend among different countries [10]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Selling - In April, foreign investors net sold $52.8 billion in U.S. government bonds, marking the highest level of net selling since June 2021 [5][11]. - The selling of U.S. equities was primarily driven by official foreign investors, who sold $33.2 billion, while private investors continued to buy [13][14]. - The trend of selling U.S. corporate bonds was also evident, with both private and official foreign investors participating in the sell-off [15].