环球市场动态

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic data from mainland China in May indicates strong production but weak domestic demand, influenced by debt repayment and declining housing prices affecting residents' wealth perception [4] - High-frequency data in June shows mixed price movements for major commodities, with online consumption growth during the "618" shopping festival estimated at a GMV growth rate of around 12% [4] - The real estate market shows signs of structural recovery post the 517 policy, with average daily transactions of second-hand homes in Shanghai rising by 59% compared to May [4] Group 2: U.S. Market Insights - U.S. service sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in over two years in early June, while May saw a third consecutive month of decline in existing home sales, with prices reaching new highs [5] - The U.S. financial system may face liquidity challenges if the Federal Reserve continues to reduce its balance sheet, potentially leading to a market rotation similar to the one observed from July to October last year [15] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.67% to 18,028 points, with all 11 sectors declining, while the total market turnover reached HKD 129.08 billion [18] - Despite the overall market decline, some "Chinese state-owned enterprises" stocks remained in demand, with China Communications Construction and China Railway Construction rising by 2.17% and 1.43% respectively [18] Group 4: A-Share Market Trends - The three major A-share indices experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 2,998 points, down 0.24% [22] - The water conservancy sector showed continued strength, while the education sector weakened overall [22] Group 5: Individual Stock Developments - Haidilao's CEO change signals a strategic shift, with expectations of growth through franchising and new brands, leading to a target price adjustment from HKD 20.6 to HKD 16.9 [20] - BYD is positioned to benefit from a restructuring phase in the automotive industry, with projected sales of 4 million, 5 million, and 5.8 million vehicles for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside a net profit forecast of CNY 375 billion, 468 billion, and 564 billion [50]