NKF(603707) 湘财证券·2024-07-05 07:01Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is transforming from a heparin leader to an international high-end formulation leader, focusing on a comprehensive product chain that includes standard heparin, low molecular weight heparin, small molecule anti-tumor injectables, and other high-end formulations [3][11]. - The international and domestic markets are driving growth in the formulation segment, with significant capacity expansion and product approvals expected to enhance performance [4][30]. - The risks associated with the heparin raw material segment have been mitigated to some extent, with prices and export volumes at historical lows, indicating potential recovery as inventory levels normalize [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Transformation and Strategy - The company has over 30 years of experience in the biopharmaceutical industry and is implementing a dual-driven strategy focusing on both raw materials and formulations, with a global market perspective [11][12]. - The company has successfully integrated its heparin business and is expanding into high-end biopharmaceuticals, aiming to become a world-class comprehensive pharmaceutical enterprise [3][11]. 2. Growth Drivers - The international market is primarily driven by the approval of new products and the commercialization of complex formulations like albumin-bound paclitaxel, with significant capacity expansion in the U.S. [4][30]. - The domestic market is expected to recover steadily due to the implementation of centralized procurement, with core products maintaining a strong market position despite short-term disruptions [4][40]. 3. Financial Forecast - The company projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.54, 0.69, and 0.92 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21.41, 16.50, and 12.51 [6]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 39.31 billion yuan in 2023 to 64.20 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.7% [6]. 4. Product and Market Position - The company has a robust pipeline with over 59 projects under development, including high-demand areas such as anti-infectives, anti-tumor drugs, and diabetes treatments [26][31]. - The company has established a strong presence in the U.S. market, with significant growth in its subsidiary Meitheal, which achieved revenue of 1.63 billion yuan in 2023, a 37.71% increase year-on-year [22][30]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The company ranks third among domestic firms in terms of ANDA approvals, indicating a strong competitive position in the international market [22]. - The global generic drug market is projected to grow steadily, with the U.S. market for shortage drugs reaching a ten-year high, presenting significant opportunities for the company [25][24].