煤炭行业更新报告：煤炭行业ROE下行趋势预计自Q2结束

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the return on equity (ROE) for the coal industry is expected to stabilize after Q2 2024, with a clearer investment logic emerging as the profitability of leading companies becomes more predictable [3][6]. - The coal price is anticipated to find a bottom around 800-950 RMB/ton, with the market gradually confirming this price range [5][10]. - The report highlights that the peak demand during the summer and winter seasons is expected to increase by over 30% compared to the off-peak demand [5][12]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-profitability and stable companies such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, as well as coal-electricity integrated companies like Xinji Energy [3][8]. - It also suggests long-term contract coking coal companies such as Hengyuan Coal Power and Pingmei Shenma, and state-owned enterprises leading in reform like China Coal Energy [3][8]. Coal Price Outlook - The report predicts that Q2 2024 will mark the lowest average price for coal, with Q3 expected to see a gradual stabilization of ROE [10][11]. - The average coal price for Q3 is projected to be between 880-900 RMB/ton, with a stable price center expected for 2025 [11][12]. Sub-Industry Analysis - For thermal coal, the report notes that while the summer peak season may not be robust, the price floor is confirmed at around 800 RMB/ton [12][14]. - Coking coal prices are expected to stabilize, with long-term contract prices remaining around 2100 RMB/ton for Q3, indicating stronger recovery certainty for company performance [15][18].