Runben Biotechnology (SH:603193) GF SECURITIES·2024-07-11 04:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.46 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 18.08 CNY [20]. Core Insights - The baby skincare category is experiencing a penetration rate increase, benefiting from a favorable growth trend due to a low base in Q3. The company is expected to achieve net profits of 310 million, 397 million, and 496 million CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 37%, 28%, and 25% [1][41]. - The company has a strong supply chain advantage, with a high proportion of self-manufactured products, allowing for competitive pricing. The average transaction value on platforms like Douyin is reported to be 1/3 to 1/2 of competitors, which aligns with the current consumer trend favoring cost-effective products [2][41]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,033 million CNY in 2023 to 2,174 million CNY by 2026, with growth rates of 20.7%, 30.0%, 28.6%, and 25.9% over the next four years [3]. - The company's EBITDA is expected to increase from 270 million CNY in 2023 to 598 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a strong operational performance [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 226 million CNY in 2023 to 496 million CNY in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 41.2%, 37.3%, 27.8%, and 25.1% [3]. Market Performance - The company has shown a stable sales performance, with Douyin's GMV reaching approximately 44 million CNY in Q3 2023, and daily sales exceeding 1 million CNY in early July 2024 [19][41]. - The introduction of new products, such as mosquito repellent and children's sunscreen, is expected to continue driving sales growth during the summer season [19].