Asia-Potash(000893) 国泰君安·2024-07-11 23:31Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's half-year performance is expected to decline primarily due to falling product prices and increased tax costs, although both production and sales volumes have increased year-on-year [4]. - The company is progressing steadily with its production and construction efforts, with the repair of the No. 2 main shaft and the connection of the No. 3 main shaft expected to be completed within 2024 [4]. - The report has adjusted the EPS forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 0.94 and 1.19 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.32 and 2.69 CNY, and introduced a new EPS forecast of 1.45 CNY for 2026 [4]. - The target price has been revised down to 18.85 CNY based on a 20x PE ratio for 2024, reflecting the company's higher production capacity elasticity compared to peers [4]. Financial Summary - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220-330 million CNY in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 53.94%-69.29% [4]. - The average daily production of potash fertilizer is approximately 5,000-6,000 tons, with ongoing efforts to resolve water seepage issues [4]. - The company has successfully expanded into the Brazilian market, enhancing its sales channels and creating new market opportunities [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 16.26 CNY, with a target price of 18.85 CNY, indicating potential upside [2][4]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 15.103 billion CNY and a net asset value per share of 12.15 CNY [5].