Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating to Zhenjiu Lidu (06979 HK) for the first time [1] Core Views - Zhenjiu Lidu has a clear business strategy and is driven by multiple brands for growth [1] - The company's multi-brand synergy is expected to benefit from the ongoing optimization of the sauce-flavored baijiu competitive landscape, accelerating the momentum of high-quality leading brands [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 8 449, 10 018, and 11 782 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth of 20%, 19%, and 18% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1 996, 2 462, and 3 019 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth of -14%, +23%, and +23% respectively [2] Brand Performance and Strategy Zhenjiu - Zhenjiu maintains a clear dual-channel strategy and product upgrades, with expected incremental contributions in the second half of the year [1] - Zhen 30 shifted from group purchase channels to circulation channels, achieving double-digit growth in the first half of 2024 [1] - Zhenjiu upgraded its experiential marketing to "Sacred Land Tour" and "National Banquet," enhancing brand image and providing a solid foundation for business expansion [1] - Zhenjiu's annual production capacity exceeds 41 000 tons, with expected storage exceeding 100 000 tons this year, providing a solid foundation for high-end product expansion [2] Lidu - Lidu is transitioning from "small and beautiful" to "large and refined," expanding its product matrix and strengthening traditional channel distribution and national layout [1] - Lidu focuses on two product matrices: Lidu Gaoliang and Lidu King, with different price positioning for each series [1] - Lidu adopts different strategies for domestic and external markets, focusing on brand recognition and expanding core customer groups in external markets [1] Xiangjiu - Xiangjiu continues to deepen its presence in the Hunan market through a large network strategy and experiential marketing [1] - With the continuous improvement of channel penetration in Hunan and strong product competitiveness, Xiangjiu is expected to achieve steady growth [1] Regional and Channel Strategy - Zhenjiu focuses on five core provinces: Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hunan, with continued penetration in 2024 [1] - The dual-channel growth strategy has shown significant results, with Zhenjiu's business unit and high-end liquor business unit having clearer positioning and goals [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 5 856 million yuan in 2022 to 11 782 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 18% [3] - Gross margin is expected to increase from 55% in 2022 to 61% in 2026 [3] - EPS is projected to be 0 59, 0 73, and 0 89 yuan per share in 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13 13x, 10 64x, and 8 68x [2] Valuation and Comparables - Zhenjiu Lidu's 2024 P/E ratio of 13x is lower than the average of 17x for comparable companies in the sub-high-end baijiu sector [8] - Comparable companies include Shanxi Fenjiu, Shuijingfang, Shedejiu, and Jiuguijiu, with average 2024-2026 P/E ratios of 17x, 14x, and 12x respectively [8] Product and Market Outlook - Zhenjiu will focus on the 500-1 000 yuan price range, targeting the sub-high-end and high-end markets, with key products including Zhen 15, Zhen 30, and the high-end bottled series [1] - The high-end bottled series is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market share of 2-3 billion yuan in the next five years [1]
珍酒李渡：经营战略清晰，多品牌驱动增长