TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(002532) 民生证券·2024-08-26 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Tianshan Aluminum (002532 SZ) with a target price of 6 69 yuan [1][22] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum's integrated layout and cost advantages in electrolytic aluminum production are expected to drive future profit growth [1][22] - The company's strategic expansion in Indonesia and Guinea for bauxite resources will further enhance its raw material supply chain and reduce costs [1][19] - The company's electrolytic aluminum business benefits from low energy costs in Xinjiang, which provides a sustainable competitive advantage [1][17] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, Tianshan Aluminum reported revenue of 13 78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6 8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 103 4% to 2 07 billion yuan [1][6] - In Q2 2024, revenue was 6 96 billion yuan, down 11 36% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders surged 161 47% year-on-year to 1 35 billion yuan [1][6] - The company's electrolytic aluminum and alumina businesses saw significant profit growth, with electrolytic aluminum gross profit per ton increasing by 630 yuan to 3,682 yuan/ton, and alumina gross profit per ton rising by 671 yuan to 695 yuan/ton [1][10] Production and Cost Analysis - In H1 2024, Tianshan Aluminum produced 585,400 tons of self-produced aluminum ingots, a year-on-year increase of 0 64%, and 1 09 million tons of alumina, up 37 57% year-on-year [1][9] - The company's self-produced aluminum ingots contributed 72 29% of total gross profit, while alumina contributed 25 46% [1][8] - The company's electricity self-sufficiency rate is 80%-90%, with the remaining power purchased from the grid, ensuring stable production costs [1][17] Strategic Expansion - Tianshan Aluminum plans to invest 1 556 billion USD to build a 2 million-ton alumina production line in Indonesia, leveraging the country's rich bauxite resources [1][19] - The company acquired a 50% stake in Elite Mining Guinea S A and secured exclusive purchasing rights for bauxite, with a planned annual production capacity of 5-6 million tons [1][19] - The company's high-purity aluminum business is expected to benefit from a reduction in export tariffs from 30% to 0% in 2024, boosting profitability [1][21] Future Outlook - The company's integrated production layout, including self-sufficiency in prebaked anodes and alumina, will enhance operational stability and cost control [1][17] - Tianshan Aluminum's low-cost advantage in electrolytic aluminum production, driven by Xinjiang's abundant coal resources, is expected to sustain high profitability [1][17] - The company's strategic investments in overseas bauxite and alumina projects will support long-term growth and resource security [1][19]