XUSHENG(SH:603305) Minsheng Securities·2024-08-31 03:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 9.05 yuan on August 29, 2024, corresponding to PE ratios of 15, 12, and 9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.149 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 265 million yuan, down 32.78% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.010 billion yuan, a decline of 14.91% year-on-year and 11.31% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to decreased sales from major downstream customers [1]. - The company is diversifying its customer base, with the revenue share from the top five customers decreasing from 66.2% in 2021 to 56.2% in 2023, indicating reduced dependency on single customers [1]. - The company is optimizing its industrial layout and accelerating its globalization strategy, including the issuance of 2.8 billion yuan in convertible bonds for key projects in lightweight automotive components and powertrains for new energy vehicles [1]. Financial Forecasts - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.94 billion yuan, 5.95 billion yuan, and 7.5 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 2.1%, 20.6%, and 26.0% [2][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 564 million yuan in 2024, 712 million yuan in 2025, and 929 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -21.0%, 26.2%, and 30.4% respectively [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.60 yuan in 2024, 0.76 yuan in 2025, and 1.00 yuan in 2026 [2][4].