Zhejiang Meida(002677) 华创证券·2024-08-31 12:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Zhejiang Meida (002677) with a target price of 8 CNY [1] Core Views - Revenue declined significantly due to industry-wide downturn, with H1 2024 revenue down 40.6% YoY to 460 million CNY [1] - Net profit dropped 55.3% YoY to 98 million CNY in H1 2024, with Q2 net profit plunging 82.6% YoY to 20 million CNY [1] - The company's performance was mainly dragged down by the sluggish real estate market and intensified competition [1] - Gross margin in Q2 2024 decreased by 4.99 percentage points to 41.63% due to increased proportion of low-price products [1] - The company maintains strong offline channel advantages with 1,900+ first-tier dealers and 4,700+ marketing terminals [1] Financial Performance - Integrated stove revenue accounted for 423 million CNY in H1 2024, down 39.53% YoY [1] - Cabinet revenue was 10 million CNY, down 37.17% YoY [1] - Other products (including embedded products, integrated sinks, and water heaters) generated 26 million CNY, down 54.05% YoY [1] - Sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios in Q2 2024 were 19.0%/8.9%/4.2%/-4.9% respectively [1] - Net profit margin in Q2 2024 was 10.34%, down 16.73 percentage points YoY [1] Industry Analysis - Integrated stove industry retail volume and value decreased by 15.2% and 18.2% respectively in H1 2024 [1] - The kitchen appliance industry faces challenges from real estate market downturn and consumption downgrade [1] - Integration and intelligence remain long-term trends in the kitchen appliance industry [1] Future Outlook - The company is expanding its product matrix to include integrated smart kitchen products and whole-house customization [1] - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 0.47/0.52/0.58 CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 15/13/12 times [1] - The company's offline channel advantages and brand strength are expected to support long-term development [1] Financial Projections - 2024E revenue is projected at 1,174 million CNY, down 29.8% YoY [2] - 2024E net profit is forecasted at 303 million CNY, down 34.7% YoY [2] - Gross margin is expected to recover from 42.8% in 2024E to 45.7% in 2026E [6] - ROE is projected to improve from 15.7% in 2024E to 17.6% in 2026E [6]