NHD(SZ:002946) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2024-08-31 12:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - In H1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.3% [2][3] - The company demonstrated resilience in liquid milk revenue, surpassing industry growth rates, with liquid milk, milk powder, and other products generating revenues of 4.83 billion, 30 million, and 490 million yuan respectively in H1 2024 [3] - The company is expected to continue outperforming the industry, with projected revenues of 11.85 billion, 12.91 billion, and 13.89 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside net profits of 530 million, 660 million, and 800 million yuan [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the gross margin was 29.2%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 5.7%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year [3] - For Q2 2024, the gross margin was 29.1%, with a net margin of 7.7%, reflecting significant cost efficiency improvements [3] Product and Regional Performance - The company maintained a double-digit contribution from new products, with high-end fresh milk and mid-to-high-end white milk segments growing over 30% year-on-year [3] - Revenue by region in H1 2024 showed varied performance, with Southwest region down 6.9% and North China up 20.2% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from product structure optimization and cost reduction strategies, leading to improved profitability [4] - The projected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.50, 0.61, and 0.76 yuan respectively, with a decreasing P/E ratio forecasted from 18.06 to 9.69 over the same period [4][7]