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中国旭阳集团:主业稳健成长,业绩改善可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its main business, with expected performance improvements in the future [4] - The company reported a revenue of 25.225 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.92%, but a net profit of 112 million, a year-on-year decrease of 84.37% [4] - The company is transitioning from a production-oriented leader to a service-oriented manufacturing model through operational management [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has underperformed compared to the Hang Seng Index, with a relative decline of 23% [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a coke production of 4.7939 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.55%, with revenue from the coke business reaching 9.81 billion, up 29.2% [4] - The average coke price in H1 2024 was 2046.6 per ton, a decrease of 13.6% year-on-year [4] - The chemical business generated revenue of 10.403 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with a gross profit of 883 million, up 31% [4] Business Segments - The coke business is supported by ongoing projects, including a 1.8 million ton coking project in Jiangxi and a 4.8 million ton project in Indonesia, which has already started production [4] - The chemical segment is expected to become the core growth driver, with plans to increase caprolactam production capacity to 1.5 million tons by 2028 [4] Hydrogen Energy - The company is leveraging its coking capacity to expand into hydrogen energy, becoming the largest hydrogen producer in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [5] - The company has received clean hydrogen certification and is expected to benefit from new hydrogen policies [5] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 52.8 billion, 59 billion, and 62.7 billion respectively, with net profits of 600 million, 700 million, and 800 million [5]