宏观周报：美国二季度GDP上修，国内制造业景气持续偏弱

Group 1: Overseas Macro Insights - The US Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.0%, driven primarily by personal consumption, indicating strong consumer contribution to the economy[3] - The core PCE for July was lower than expected at 2.6%, suggesting a moderate inflation environment[4] - The trade deficit worsened, contributing -0.77% to GDP, indicating strong internal demand despite external pressures[3] Group 2: Domestic Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI for August remained weak at 49.1, indicating continued contraction for four consecutive months[9] - The non-manufacturing PMI was slightly better at 50.2, but still below historical averages, reflecting weak recovery in services[9] - Industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 3.6% for the first seven months of 2024, with July profits up 4.2%[12] Group 3: Market Trends and Risks - The US dollar index hit a year-to-date low before rebounding, while 10Y US Treasury yields fluctuated above 3.8%[1] - Risks include weaker-than-expected domestic recovery, limited overseas monetary easing, and escalating geopolitical tensions[1] - The recent strengthening of the RMB is attributed to multiple factors, including policy expectations and corporate foreign exchange settlements[1]