金牌家居：零售短期承压，大宗&整装高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.52 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 69 million yuan, a decrease of 9.1% year-on-year. Q2 revenue was 879 million yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 33 million yuan, down 24.4% year-on-year. The performance was impacted by the real estate sector's temporary pressure, leading to a slight decline in gross margin and increased interest expenses from convertible bonds issued in 2023 [1]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - H1 2024 retail revenue was 692 million yuan, down 15.0% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 31.6%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points. Q2 retail revenue fell 19.5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 28.2%, down 6.6 percentage points. The company is deepening its retail strategy and expanding its presence through various channels, with home decoration business growing approximately 45% year-on-year [1]. Bulk and Integrated Business - H1 2024 bulk revenue reached 600 million yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.8%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points. Q2 bulk revenue was 366 million yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 18.5%, up 2.7 percentage points. The company continues to sign strategic partnerships with quality real estate developers, leading to significant growth in this segment [1]. Overseas Expansion - H1 2024 overseas revenue was 166 million yuan, up 33.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 28.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points. Q2 overseas revenue was 85 million yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 27.1%, up 1.1 percentage points. The company is expanding into North America and Australia and plans to establish a manufacturing base in Thailand [1]. Integrated Business Growth - The company is enhancing cooperation with leading home decoration companies and expanding its integrated business channels. As of H1 2024, there were 178 integrated stores, an increase of 20 from Q1 2024. The integrated business continues to show high growth [1]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for Q2 2024 was 25.7%, down 2.0 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 3.8%, down 0.9 percentage points. The selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue were 10.6%, 5.8%, and 6.3%, respectively. The company is increasing its investment in product competitiveness, leading to a slight rise in expense ratios [1]. Cash Flow and Operational Capability - In Q2 2024, the company reported a net operating cash flow of 235 million yuan, down 205 million yuan year-on-year. The turnover days for inventory, accounts receivable, and accounts payable were 85, 22, and 105 days, respectively, indicating stable operational capability [1]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Due to the continued weakness in real estate and consumer demand, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 290 million, 320 million, and 360 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 8.7X, 7.7X, and 6.8X. The "Buy" rating is maintained [1].