洛阳钼业：持续并购，打造中国“嘉能可”

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9][36] Core Views - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions to establish itself as China's "Glencore," transitioning from a domestic molybdenum and tungsten leader to a global mining giant through strategic overseas acquisitions [4][15][20] - The report is optimistic about metal prices in a declining interest rate environment, predicting a sustained increase in copper prices due to supply constraints and potential strikes in South America [5][24][27][28] - The company's profitability is expected to significantly improve with the production ramp-up of its TFM and KFM projects, forecasting net profits of 111 billion, 132 billion, and 146 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [6][9][33] Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Acquisitions to Build China's "Glencore" - The company has transformed from a domestic leader in molybdenum and tungsten to a global mining powerhouse through acquisitions, including Northparkes copper mine and Tenke copper-cobalt mine [4][15][16] - It currently holds three world-class assets: TFM and KFM copper-cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with copper reserves of 9.208 million tons and cobalt reserves of 1.441 million tons; a niobium-phosphate asset in Brazil; and molybdenum-tungsten assets in China [4][16] 2. Bullish on Metal Prices in a Rate Cut Cycle - The report highlights an increasing probability of interest rate cuts in 2024, which is expected to support metal prices, particularly copper [5][24][27] - The copper supply is nearing its peak, with minimal new supply expected post-mid-2024, leading to a potential price increase as demand outstrips supply [28][29] 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 111 billion, 132 billion, and 146 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 11, and 10 times [6][9][33] - The report compares the company to its peers in the A-share copper-cobalt sector, indicating a potential valuation premium due to its global mining stature and production growth [9][36]