穿越产能出清周期：2021-2024年锂电材料行业变革与竞争要素分析

Investment Rating - The report indicates a structural oversupply in the lithium battery materials industry, particularly in the ternary precursor sector, leading to a cautious investment outlook for the period from 2021 to 2024 [2][32]. Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry has experienced rapid growth driven by demand from electric vehicles and energy storage, transitioning through phases of supply shortage, tight balance, and now structural oversupply [3][5]. - The report highlights that companies with diversified product structures, high global presence, and strong financial capabilities are likely to navigate the oversupply cycle successfully [2][32]. - The report emphasizes the increasing concentration in various segments of the lithium battery industry, suggesting that leading companies will gain a competitive edge [32]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - From 2021 to 2023, the lithium battery and materials market grew rapidly due to the development of the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, with significant increases in production capacity [3][5]. - The industry has faced a transition from supply shortages to structural oversupply, particularly noted in 2024, where profitability is under pressure due to increased competition [3][12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship has shifted significantly, with 2021 seeing a supply shortage, 2022 a tight balance, and 2023 a structural oversupply [13][32]. - The report notes that the average price of cathode materials has dropped significantly in 2023, with a reported decline in industry revenue [9][12]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - Domestic policies in China are aimed at curbing excessive capacity expansion, while international policies from the US and EU are imposing restrictions on Chinese lithium battery exports [18][20]. - The report outlines specific regulations such as the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Battery Regulation, which could impact the competitiveness of Chinese lithium battery products in global markets [19][20]. Resource Distribution - The report discusses China's reliance on imported lithium minerals and the strategic moves by companies to secure overseas resources to mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions [22][23]. - The increasing demand for nickel in the ternary precursor industry is highlighted, with projections indicating a significant rise in nickel requirements by 2030 [23][24]. Financing Environment - The report indicates that while financing difficulties have increased due to macroeconomic conditions, the demand for financing among lithium battery companies remains high [27][32]. - The analysis of the A-share market shows a decline in IPO numbers and valuations for lithium battery companies, reflecting a tightening financing environment [29][30].