摩根士丹利：跨资产聚焦_信号、流量和关键数据

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry but provides forecasts and insights into various asset classes and their expected returns [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights potential policy uncertainties related to tariffs in the context of the upcoming US election and discusses their impact on the economy and equity/FX strategies across major economies [2]. - It notes that rates have sold off across major markets, with US 2Y and 10Y yields rising significantly, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that most major equity markets experienced declines, particularly the EURO STOXX 50, which was down by 2.2% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500 forecasted returns range from 5,400 to 6,350, with a base case return of -4.8% and volatility of 18% [3]. - MSCI Europe is expected to have a return of 24.4% with a base case return of -13.9% [3]. - Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) forecast shows a significant decline of -33.1% with a base case return of -6.8% [3]. Foreign Exchange (FX) - The USD/JPY forecast indicates a potential decline to 140, with a base case return of 12.0% [3]. - The EUR/USD is expected to remain stable at 1.10, with a slight decline of -5.0% [3]. - GBP/USD is forecasted to rise to 1.34, with a base case return of 2.3% [3]. Rates - The US 10-year Treasury yield is projected to decrease to 3.75%, with a base case return of -5.4% [3]. - The UK 10-year yield is expected to drop to 3.50%, with a base case return of 2.2% [3]. - German Bund yields are forecasted to decline to 1.90%, with a base case return of -0.1% [3]. Credit - US Investment Grade (IG) spreads are forecasted to tighten to 80 bps, with a base case return of -1.8% [3]. - US High Yield (HY) spreads are expected to tighten to 300 bps, with a base case return of -3.9% [3]. - European High Yield spreads are projected to tighten to 90 bps, with a base case return of -2.5% [3]. Commodities - Brent crude oil is forecasted to stabilize around $75, with a significant decline of -20.6% [3]. - Copper and gold prices are expected to see declines of -18.9% and -14.3%, respectively [3]. Fund Flows - The report notes that trailing 3-month flows into US ETFs focused on Japan equities are at their lowest since 2020, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4][6]. - Overall, the report tracks daily fund flows across approximately 5,000 ETFs globally, covering around $7 trillion in assets, with a notable increase in US asset inflows [15][27].