策略实操专题（十九）：市场期待什么样的政策脉冲

Core Insights - The report indicates a shift in fiscal policy focus, with capital markets adjusting their attention accordingly since 2023. The emphasis has moved from credit expansion to fiscal spending, establishing a stronger correlation between fiscal expenditures and the stock market [1][4][20] - Historical reviews of fiscal policy impacts on the stock market reveal that policy pulses typically lead market trends by approximately three months, while earnings improvements lag behind market movements by one to two quarters [1][4][20] Fiscal Policy Changes and Market Transmission - Since the early 2000s, China's fiscal policy has undergone three significant shifts: large-scale debt issuance from 2008 to 2012, tax reductions from 2013 to 2022, and structural adjustments in fiscal spending from 2023 onwards. The current challenge is optimizing spending in key areas to achieve maximum impact [4][20] - The transition from credit-driven market support to fiscal spending reflects a broader change in policy objectives, with recent trends indicating a stronger link between fiscal spending and stock market performance [4][20] Historical Market Performance Under Fiscal Stimulus - The first round of fiscal stimulus (2008-2009) was characterized by a shift to an active fiscal policy in response to the global financial crisis, leading to a significant market rebound as government spending increased [12][16] - The second round of fiscal stimulus (2020-2021) was initiated in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, with aggressive fiscal measures including increased deficit spending and special bonds, which also resulted in a strong market recovery [16][17] Current Fiscal Stimulus Directions and Market Impact - The current fiscal stimulus is expected to focus on debt management, real estate stabilization, and support for key demographics, with an emphasis on improving the business environment to stimulate private investment [18][20] - The anticipated fiscal measures include a budget deficit of approximately 4.06 trillion yuan for 2024, with a focus on ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures and enhancing the effectiveness of government investments [18][21] Conclusion on Market Expectations - The market is currently looking for fiscal policy pulses that can effectively stimulate economic recovery and improve corporate fundamentals. The ongoing fiscal measures are expected to provide a steady upward trajectory for the stock market, contingent on the strength of fiscal spending and its impact on the economy [20][21]