NAURA(SZ:002371)2024-10-13 16:43Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Naura (002371.SZ) with a 12-month target price raised to Rmb502, reflecting a 14.6% increase from the previous target of Rmb438 [1][11]. Core Insights - Naura is positioned to benefit from the strong growth in China's semiconductor industry, with expected capital expenditures (capex) rising to US$36 billion in 2024, US$40 billion in 2025, and US$42 billion in 2026, up from US$30 billion in 2023 [1][10]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 31% year-over-year (YoY) in Q3 2024, reaching Rmb8.1 billion, driven by increasing demand from domestic foundries and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) [2][10]. - Naura's competitive advantage lies in its comprehensive product offerings across various semiconductor manufacturing processes, including etching, deposition, and cleaning tools, which positions it well to capture market opportunities [2][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Earnings Forecast - The report anticipates Naura's revenues for 2024E to be Rmb30,554 million, with subsequent years showing growth to Rmb41,064 million in 2025E, Rmb50,543 million in 2026E, and Rmb59,447 million in 2027E, reflecting increases of 4%, 11%, and 16% respectively [5][10]. - Net income is projected to grow to Rmb5,991 million in 2024E, Rmb8,581 million in 2025E, Rmb10,727 million in 2026E, and Rmb12,030 million in 2027E, with growth rates of 0%, 11%, 18%, and 19% respectively [5][10]. Margin Analysis - The gross margin is expected to sustain at 43% in Q3 2024, compared to 41% in 2023 and 45% in the first half of 2024 [2][10]. - Operating expenses are projected to decrease, with the operating expense ratio expected to be 22% in Q3 2024, down from 25% in 2023 [2][10]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Naura is recognized as a leader in the domestic semiconductor equipment market, benefiting from its technology leadership and strong relationships with first-tier customers [2][10]. - The company is expanding its product line to include high-end tools, which will enhance its market share and competitive positioning within the semiconductor value chain [2][10].